the unbearable lightness of m2m forecastingdocbox.etsi.org/workshop/2014/201412_m2mworkshop/... ·...

COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Marc Jadoul ( @mjadoul)Sophia Antipolis, 10 December 2014

THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESSOF M2M FORECASTING

GOOD MORNING. HOW WAS YOUR BREAKFAST?

Photo: pictures.4ever.eu

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BREAKFAST IN 2020

Perfectly baked bread thanks to the wireless temperature sensor

implants in the dough.(1)

Perfectly baked bread thanks to the wireless temperature sensor

implants in the dough.(1)

A connected egg tray tells you how many eggs you have left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)

A connected egg tray tells you how many eggs you have left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)

Your cup monitors the temperature of your tea.(6)

Your cup monitors the temperature of your tea.(6)

The smart bowl calculates the calories you’re taking in.(4)

The smart bowl calculates the calories you’re taking in.(4)

This smart spoon assists people with hand tremors.(7)

This smart spoon assists people with hand tremors.(7)

(1) http://www.powerretail.com.au/case-profiles-studies/high-tech-bread/(2) http://gigaom.com/2013/08/20/podcast-hard-boiled-quirky-and-ge-will-connect-your-eggs-and-crack-open-the-iot-space/(3) http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/gift-guide/out-milk-lgs-new-smart-fridge-will-let-you-know-n99531(4) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/07/15/331402697/calorie-counting-machine-may-make-dieting-easier-in-the-future(5) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10364890/WiFi-kettle-allows-you-to-boil-water-from-bed.html(6) http://www.instructables.com/id/Smart-Coffer-Cup-Temperature-Reminds-For-Your-Hot-/(7) http://www.voanews.com/content/smart-spoon-allows-parkinsons-sufferers-to-feed-themselves/1830217.html

The iKettle was switched on while you were still in bed.(5)

The iKettle was switched on while you were still in bed.(5)

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A TYPICAL FAMILY HOME COULD CONTAIN MORE THAN 500 SMART DEVICES BY 2022

A TYPICAL FAMILY HOME COULD CONTAIN MORE THAN 500 SMART DEVICES BY 2022

Gartner, September 2014

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THE NEXT STEP IN INTERNET EVOLUTION

Pre-internet era

Internet ofCONTENT

Internet ofSERVICES

Internet ofPEOPLE

Internet ofTHINGS

SOCIALWEB 2.0WWWH2H M2M

+ + + +

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Source: Gartner, July 2014

Internet of ThingsInternet of Things

Source: gsmaintelligence.comImage: http://gizmodo.com/a-map-of-every-device-in-the-world-thats-connected-to-t-1628171291

BY THE END OF 2014 THE NUMBER OF MOBILE-CONNECTED DEVICES WILL HAVEEXCEEDED THE WORLD’S POPULATION

AND THIS IS JUST A BEGINNING …

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212 BILLION‘THINGS’ IN 2020

26 BILLION‘UNITS’ BY 2020

$8.9 TRILLION GLOBAL REVENUES

BY 2020

$300 BILLION SERVICES REVENUES

IN 2020

$1.9 TRILLION GLOBAL ECONOMIC

VALUE IN 2020

Source: IDC, October 2013 Source: Gartner, March 2014

THE ‘INTERNET OF THINGS’ IN 2020: IT’S GOING TO BEBIIIIIG, THOUGH NOBODY REALLY KNOWS HOW BIG…

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ARE THEY REALLY TALKING ABOUT THE SAME TOPIC?

25. A scenario in which everyday objects connect and share data with applications and with each other.

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Image: http://w

ww

.bobmcm

ahon.com

DID THEY COUNT EVERYTHING?

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(1) http://www.m2mnow.biz/2013/05/11/11795-container-tracking-systems-installed-base-grew-54-in-2012-says-new-berg-insight-report/(2) http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/09/schiphol_airport_tests_cameras.php(3) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25197917(4) http://www.psfk.com/2014/01/true-love-bra.html(5) http://www.idownloadblog.com/2014/01/06/ces-2014-kolibree-toothbrush/(6) http://smartinteractionlab.com/whistle-connected-dog-collar/(7) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/baidu-launches-smart-chopsticks-to-detect-contaminated-food-9711478.html

(5) (6)

(3, 4)

ALL ‘THINGS’ GREAT AND SMALL

(7)

(1)

(2)

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THE SHORT TAIL VS. THE LONG TAIL

# Applications

KILLER APPS

THE LONG TAIL

SEGMENT/INDUSTRY/BUSINESS SPECIFIC

Assets/Application

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1carCellular dataBluetoothWi-FiHomelinkTPMS(GPS)

5 connections100 sensors

Air–fuel ratio, blind spot monitor,

crankshaft position, curb feeler, defect

detector, engine coolant temperature,

Hall effect sensor, manifold absolute

pressure, mass flow, oxygen, parking

sensors, radar gun detector, speed,

throttle position, tire-pressure, torque,

transmission fluid temperature, turbine

speed, variable reluctance, water-in-

fuel, water-on-windshield, wheel

speed, etc. etc.

WHAT ARE THEY ACTUALLY COUNTING?Photo: m

otortrend.com

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A COMPLEX AND DIVERSE ECOSYSTEM

Based upon: Matt Turk, Sutian Dong, FirstMark Capital, 2013

YOU ARE

HERE

YOU ARE

HERE

YOU ARE

HERE

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ARPD/ARPC AT A FRACTION OF TRADITIONAL VOICE & DATA ARPU

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POSSIBLE ROLES OF A SERVICE PROVIDER

Connectivity & SIM wholesale

M2M onboarding, AAA, device management, analytics, security, …

Fostering applications to increase network utilization. Integrating ‘things’ into applications

End-to-end solutions for verticals and consumers.

NETWORK+ TRANSPORT M2M PLATFORM DEV. PORTAL

+ STOREFRONTAPPLICATION

HOSTING

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Photo: visitoakdaleca.com

WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?

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EXPERIENCE ‘BY DESIGN’

manageabilityperformance

scalability

interoperability

security

APIsvirtualization

FCQ

€

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ARE YOU READY FOR THIS NEW EXPERIENCE?

Fido @connected_collar 3hYour dog needs a walk

Inventory @my_suitcase 2h3 pairs of fresh socks left

Coffee @percolator3288 12mCoffee will be ready at 10:45

Time Keeper @Timekeeper 2mConclude your talk NOW!

Mike @ETSI_microphone3 5sThe next speaker is ready ;-)

Home Discover Activity

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KEEP CALMANDREAD THIS

AT HOME http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/internet-of-things-benefit-standardization/

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KEEP CALM

AND

REPLAYTHESE

WEBINARS http://www.onem2m.org/btchannel.cfm

Photo: http://ww

w.picturesonw

alls.com

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THOUGHT OF THE DAY…

[email protected]

the unbearable lightness of m2m forecastingdocbox.etsi.org/workshop/2014/201412_m2mworkshop/... ·...

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