the uncertainty model: understanding what business you are in

©2015 Chokti Inc. ROKC Business Leaders Coaching

The

Uncertainty ModelUnlocking Business Through Uncertainty

The Human Condition

In the face of life's uncertainties,

we struggle to overcome.


Simply put

The more uncertain we are about something, the more we have to struggle to overcome it.

Uncertainty Struggle


Life’s Uncertainties• Complete Gestation Period

• Healthy Child Birth

• Infant Mortality

• Access to Healthcare

• Life Expectancy at Birth

• Access to Food & Water

• Access to Shelter

• Access to Security/Safety

• Access to Education

• Access to Work

• Equal Opportunity

A Long, Happy & Healthy Life, Full of Opportunities.


On the Uncertainty Scale…

0% 100%

NeedFreedom

StruggleRisks


The Reality is where

a need ends & a sense of freedom begins is subjective.


Compared with MaslowFreedom

Need


The Uncertainty Model

Phys

ical

Emotional

Intelle

ctual

0%

100%

100%

100%

Self-Actualization


The NeediestPh

ysic

al

Emotional

Intelle

ctual

Close to 100%

uncertainty on all three axes are the

neediest members

of a community.

100%

100%

100%

0%


“I’m Zen, Man.”Ph

ysic

al

Emotional

Intelle

ctual

Close to 0% uncertainty

about everything

are the most self-

actualized members

of a community.

100%

100%

100%

0%


Most of UsPh

ysic

al

Emotional

Intelle

ctual

Most of a community

is some place in the

center.

100%

100%

100%

0%


Leaders: a definition

A leader is an individual who has developed a view of the world that allows them to form a vision of how it might be less uncertain, communicates it to the community, inspiring some members to collaborate

and cooperate to make it a reality.


The Role of Leadership

Phys

ical

Emotional

Intelle

ctual

Moves the

community to a lower

level of uncertainty on 1, 2, or 3

of these axes.

100%

100%

100%

0%


But…Individual leaders can only do so much.

In order to reduce uncertainty for an ever greater number of community members, we need to scale up. That’s where businesses step in.


BusinessBusinesses reduce the uncertainty of outcomes

experienced by specific members of a specific community in a specific set of circumstances.

In order to provide this benefit to a larger and ever increasing portion of a community, the business needs to

equip itself with resources.

The most important resource is the Key Component. The asset which owned and/or controlled by the business that is used in their products which clients will seek to acquire

because it reduces the uncertainty of an outcome.©2015 Chokti Inc.

ROKC Business Leaders Coaching

Businesses Reduce Uncertainty

Struggle

Unc

erta

inty

MarketB1

B3 B2EffectiveEfficient

&Effective

Efficient

100%

100%0%©2015 Chokti Inc.


Move the Market

Struggle

Unc

erta

inty

Before

After

100%

100%0%©2015 Chokti Inc.


Benefits of Competition

Struggle

Unc

erta

inty

C1

C2C3

C4

Competition moves the

market closer to

zero/liberation.

But never gets there because of

risk.

100%

100%0%©2015 Chokti Inc.


Market Evolution

Market Segment

D

Market Segment

…

Market Segment

H

Market Segment

G

Market Segment

F

Market Segment

E

Market Segment

C

Market Segment

B

Market Segment

A

Sub-

Segm

ents

Nic

hes

Product-Centric Customer-Centric


Example: Pain Relievers• Physical

• Primary Active Ingredient: • Aspirin, Acetaminophen, Ibuprofen, Naproxen

• Secondary Active Ingredients: • Caffeine, Pseudo-ephedrine, dextromethorphan,

Flavorings, Bicarbonate Soda,…

• Dosage (mg) • 81, 100, 125, 200, 250, 300, 400, 500, 600,…

• Quantity • 1 - 500 units

• Delivery • Tablet, Gelcap, Caplet, Liquid, Powder, Coated,…

• with/without water

• Emotional • Fast acting, Gentle, Tranquil,…

• Intellectual • Male, Female, Children • Heart healthy, Children, Allergies, Cold & Flu, Fever,

Menopause, Athletes, Osteoporosis, Indigestion,…

There are approx.14,000 FDA registered products for sale in the USA that use these 4

primary active compounds.

Unit prices: -1¢ to +73¢.


http://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-363/dextromethorphan+hbr+oral/details

Business LeadershipA business leader, like any other leader, is an individual with a sufficiently developed view of the world to envision a less uncertain way of achieving an outcome, communicates it to their community, inspiring certain members to cooperate and collaborate to make it a reality.

In order to be successful, the business leader must keep one eye on the Key Component and the other on the Uncertainty of Outcomes their product(s) reduce while aligning all stakeholders to this mission.


Successful Leadership

Key Component Uncertainty

The business is what happens in between!


What uncertainty does your business reduce? And, for

whom? Be specific!


What is your business’s Key Component?


Uncertain?


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Leadership Coaching

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