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THE UNITED KINGDOM IN 2030

MAY 2015

KEY TRENDS FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Understanding what the world might look like in the next few decades and taking action to prepare for this future is of fundamental importance if we are going to create a fairer and more sustainable society. It is essential that more organisations think beyond the immediate short term pressures of business to really consider the long term implications of the changes facing the world today. That is why we have developed the Future Insights project - to help UK businesses explore how global forces may impact them and identify the practical actions they can take today to maximise opportunity and minimise risk. Collaboration will be central in driving change and creating the change we want to see. We are grateful to the project partners WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff, Anthesis, Cisco, Lloyds Bank, Pinsent Masons and Walgreens Boots Alliance for their expertise. We are working with a growing group of forward thinking companies that are considering these issues, working with us to consider what their own personal journey may look like and then sharing their own learning to inspire others. I encourage many more companies to get involved www.bitc.org.uk/futureinsights.

It’s hard to think beyond the present, to think out of the world we’re living in today. We live fast in the present, but think back ten, fifteen or twenty years. Our phones, the internet, how we shop have all changed so significantly, yet other elements – human nature, work-life patterns and our homes haven’t changed that much.This document sets out the key trends that WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff is tracking, along with other partners in Business in the Community’s Future Insights project, Anthesis, Cisco, Lloyds Bank, Pinsent Masons and Walgreens Boots Alliance. We’ve grouped the key trends into five many areas – Demography, Climate Change, Resources, Technology and Value Change. All of the trends are large and all present unique challenges and opportunities for companies working in the built environment. We know, of course, that some of our forecasts will prove wrong, and other trends will emerge that we don’t know about today – that is the challenge of forecast. However the issues and the case studies we’ve included from across our industry, show both the opportunity for business leaders and how – together – our industry can respond to create a built environment ready for the future. We are optimistic about the future, and we hope you enjoy looking forward to 2030.

Mark HurleyHead of the Environmental DisciplineWSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff

Steven HowardChief ExecutiveBusiness in the Community

THE BUILT EN

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T IN 2030

THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN 20301

http://www.bitc.org.uk/futureinsights

WHAT WILL CHANGE FOR DESIGN?

THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN 2030 2

DEMOGRAPHY CLIMATE CHANGE RESOURCES

VALUE CHANGE TECHNOLOGY

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• A larger older population• More connected but lonely

• Wetter• Hotter• Windier

• Energy Efficient• Water Efficient• Material Efficient

• Zero Waste• Flexible• More Intense• Protecting Nature

• More terror, less crime• Healthy and Well

• Smart• New Materials

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• UK POPULATION FORECAST TO GROW FROM 65MILLION TODAY TO 71MILLION IN 2030.

• FASTER GROWTH IN THE SOUTH EAST AND CITIES THAN ELSEWHERE.

• THE NUMBER OF OLDER PEOPLE IN THE UK WILL GROW BY 50% BETWEEN 2013 AND 2030.

• 74% OF MEN AND 64% OF WOMEN WILL BE OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE BY 2030.

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Comparison between UK population in 2010 and 2035

(Source: ONS, 2011)

DEMOGRAPHY A LARGER, OLDER POPULATION

POSSIBLE RESPONSES• A larger population will need more homes, schools and

infrastructure.

• Greater London Authority forecasts the need for 1.5million extra homes, 600 schools and colleges and a 50% increase in public Transport Capacity by in London by 2050.

• Include full consideration of accessibility and health issues in designs, build and retrofit.

• People who need care support generally want to stay in their own home. However, some people will need specially designed buildings.


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BIRMINGHAM FORECASTS NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 HOMES BY 2031Based on population projections for the city, Birmingham City Council’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment, produced by advisors Roger Tym and Partners and HDH Planning and Development, estimates that the City needs to build 80,000 new homes between 2011 and 2031, most of which are private sector houses sold on the open market.

Severn Trent Water provides clean water to 7.7m people across the Midlands and Wales. OFWAT, the industry regulator, requires water companies to produce a Water Resource Management Plan which sets out how much water will be needed and how much will be available. Its latest plan, published in 2014, calculates in detail, changes in demand for water across 15 separate regions of the firm’s operations – covering changing populations, demand for water from business as well also as programmes led by the firm, such as investment to cut leakage and work with customers to reduce demand.

SEVERN TRENT’S WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PLAN

BARTON MEWS HOUSING, STAFFS, HELPS RESIDENTS TO REMAIN LIVING INDEPENDENTLY Barton Mews is an award winning Extra Care scheme, within the Barton Community Health and Care Centre, Barton Under Needwood. Barton Mews consists of 29 one and two bedroom apartments available for sale to people over 55, requiring some health and/or personal care in order to remain living independently. Residents are able to access a whole range of services from staff based on site and enjoy magnificent communal areas including a lounge, restaurant, launderette, beauty therapy, library, hobby room, mobility scooter store and external terraces.

CASE STUDIES

DEMOGRAPHY A LARGER, OLDER POPULATION


• ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS ARE THE LARGEST AREA OF GROWTH IN THE UK.

• THE NUMBER OF OLDER PEOPLE IN THE UK WILL GROW BY 50% BETWEEN 2013 AND 2030.

• HOMEWORKING, ONLINE SHOPPING AND THE DECLINE OF THE PUB MEANS THERE’S LESS REASON OR NEED TO GET OUT THE HOUSE.

• EVEN AS WE BECOME MORE CONNECTED, THE FUTURE COULD ALSO BE MORE LONELY.

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2000 2010 % change

Adults (15+) who personally use a mobile phone (%) 62 91 +47%

Households with ony a mobile phone (%) 5 15 +300%

Households with PC/Laptop (%) 46 78 +70%

Households with Internet access (%) 30 76 +253%

Households with digital TV (%) 20 93 +465%

Proportion of workers 16+ who are homeworkers (%) 9.7 11.2 +15%

Proportion of workers 16+ who are ICT homeworkers (%) 3.9 6.0 +54%

UK online grocery sales estimates (£M) 530 4800 +906%

Adults (16+) who are obese (%) 21.2 26.1 +23%

Increasingly Homeworking and Digital

(Source: Centre for Transport & Society UWE, Bristol)

DEMOGRAPHY MORE CONNECTED BUT LONELY

• Design buildings, developments and streets with space for interaction, and room for privacy.

• Leave space for active travel, parks and ‘slower’ ways of life.

• Avoid isolation by designing buildings and streets that are 100% step free and accessible.

• Use digital technology to help people engage online and also to help get them out of the house.

• Driverless cars improve could improve public transport in rural areas as a cheaper alternative to buses.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


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ROB MCDOWELL FINDS COMMUNITY ON THE GROUND FLOOR IN VANCOUVERRob McDowell provides a great case comparison of his lonely living on the 29th floor of a hip design tower in Vancouver’s Yaletown district compared to his new, rich life living in a town house leading to semi-private porches overlooking a podium garden. They provided regular opportunities for brief, easy contact.

The Responsive Street Furniture project by designers Ross Atkin and Jonathan Scott uses digital technology to help pedestrians with different impairments make their journeys easier and safer. The duo created a system that detects personal electronic devices of registered users. They then designed street lamps with adjustable levels of lighting, mounted foldaway seating, pedestrian crossings with extended time limits, and signs that light up and talk – all able to detect and respond to the user’s requirements.

RESPONSIVE STREET FURNITURE HELPS MAKE CITIES MORE ACCESSIBLE

MAKING BOGOTÁ A HAPPY CITY“We can design the city to give people dignity, to make them feel rich” said Enrique Peñalosa Mayor of Bogotá in 2006. Budgets focused on cyclepaths, parks, pedestrian plazas and mass transit replaced a massive investment in highway infrastructure. The Bogotá experiment may not have made up for all the city’s grinding inequities, but it was a spectacular beginning and, to the surprise of many, it made life better for almost everyone.

CASE STUDIES

DEMOGRAPHY MORE CONNECTED BUT LONELY


• A 10% CHANCE OF A CATASTROPHIC FLOOD IN ENGLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 20 YEARS (ONE CAUSING OVER £10 BILLION OF DAMAGE).

• PEAK RAINFALL WILL BE 10% HEAVIER BY 2030, CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING.

• SEA LEVELS AROUND 1M HIGHER AT THE END OF THE CENTURY.

• SIGNIFICANT GROUNDWATER LEVEL CHANGES – SOME WATER TABLES RISING, SOME FALLING - RAIN MAY NOT SOAK AWAY.

• INCREASING FLOOD RISK IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UK.

WETTER

• Design (and retrofit) for heavier rainfall.

• Plan for faster erosion from higher seas.

• Design sustainable drainage systems – where groundwater levels allow.

• Understand future local water tables and design to these, not just current conditions.

• Build in flexibility to accommodate future, unforeseen changes.

• Build future rainfall risks into due diligence studies.

POSSIBLE RESPONSESCumulative forecast net sea level rise

from 1990 – forecast date

(Source: Environment Agency 2013)

Forecast % change in peak rainfall intensity

CLIMATE CHANGE WETTER


WETTER

The risk of flooding from heavy rain means most electrical equipment has been located on roofs rather than basements, equipment is located on plinths and there are no wards located in the new building’s basements. See more here.

GREAT ORMOND STREET HOSPITAL

REINFORCING THE RAILWAY EMBANKMENT AT POOLE HARBOURA major reinforcement of the embankment has also included future reinforcement against higher sea levels and stronger waves.

CLIMATE CHANGE WETTER

FLOOD RISK FROM LAKE MÄLAREN, STOCKHOLMWith lake levels likely to rise due to higher snow melt, city planners identified where flood waters would flow. Data centres have been moved out of basements near to the lake and a major electricity substation – supporting the city’s drinking water intake – has been supported by back up supplies.

CASE STUDIES


http://www.wspgroup.com/en/What-we-do/Project-Case-Studies/Great-Ormond-Street-Hospital-/

• MORE HEATWAVES, ESPECIALLY IMPACTING ON CITY CENTRES.

• GREATER LONDON AUTHORITY FORECASTS LONDON’S HOT SPELLS WILL BE 40-50OC BY 2050.

• MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR AIR CONDITIONING.

• HEAT STRESS ON EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS ROADS AND RAILWAYS.

• INCREASED RISK OF OVERHEATING IN BUILDINGS.

HO

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Most likely change in Summer Mean Daily Maximum temperatures compared to 2009

Source: UK CIP 09 high emision scenario, 50% percentile, summer average

CLIMATE CHANGE HOTTER

• Model and design to future temperatures as well as current weather files.

• Use free cooling in designs, not necessarily traditional air conditioning.

• Design in green infrastructure, such as trees and green roofs.

• Build in flexibility to accommodate future, unforeseen changes.

• Build resilience into retrofits.

• Design in sufficient ventilation to avoid overheating in buildings.

• Use lighter colours on roofs in urban environments to reflect more light.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


HO

TTERCLIMATE CHANGE HOTTER

CASE STUDIES

WESTBROOK PRIMARY SCHOOL, HOUNSLOWRetrofit of the school installed natural ventilation, bringing the air through an induction system and a network of plastic pipes – removing the need for a costly full mechanical ventilation system.

Detailed thermal modelling delivers 30% CO2 savings with 40% higher occupancy, largely by retrofitting allowing natural ventilation, improved lighting and IT and reverting to an open plan layout.

NEWCASTLE CIVIC CENTRE RETROFIT

The summer of 2003 was a particularly hot summer in the UK. Studies by DEFRA and the University of Bath shows a link between the high temperatures reached, lower rainfall and increases in road maintenance costs. Cambridgeshire County Council, for example, spent around £19 million on scheduled highway maintenance schemes with a large number of additional structural maintenance schemes required as a result of the drought conditions (estimated to cost £3.5 million) and an additional £1.1 million spent on emergency repairs of the highway due to cracking and deformation. DEFRA note that after the 2003 summer, UK regional road subsidence costs (local authority roads only) were estimated at £40.6 million.

THE IMPACT OF THE HOT SUMMER OF 2003 ON THE UK ROAD NETWORK


• A STORMIER PLANET COULD HAVE HIGHER PEAK WIND SPEEDS.

• ANECDOTAL INFORMATION SHOWS 2013 WAS THE WINDIEST YEAR ON RECORD.

• GENERIC FORECASTS OF INCREASED WINDINESS, BUT NO ROBUST LONG RANGE FORECASTS.

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CLIMATE CHANGE WINDIER

• Carry out sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of higher wind speeds and where to respond.

• Design structures to withstand higher wind speeds.

• Understand how higher wind speeds could impact on existing infrastructure.

• Understand how disruptions to individual infrastructure assets can have systemic consequences for other infrastructure sectors and the wider economy. This area is poorly understood at the moment.

• Model higher wind speeds to avoid a wind tunnel effect at street level.

• Windier areas could generate more energy from wind and marine wave turbines.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


WIN

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2014’S WINTER STORMSThe UK experienced a spell of extreme weather from late January to mid-February as a succession of major storms brought widespread impacts and damage. Overall, the period from mid-December 2013 to mid-February 2014 saw at least 12 major winter storms. When considered overall, this was the stormiest period of weather the UK has experienced for at least 20 years. The Adaptation Sub-Committee reported that over the winter:

CLIMATE CHANGE WINDIER

AN UNEXPECTED WIND TUNNEL AT BRIDGEWATER PLACE, LEEDSBridgewater Place in Leeds has earned the reputation as Britain’s windiest street. Tragically in 2007 a pedestrian was killed after a van driving past the building was blown over by a gust of wind funneled down to street level from the tower block. The road, a major route into Leeds City Centre, is now closed periodically after a Coroner’s recommendation that it be shut to all road users when wind speeds reach 45mph. The building’s owners are currently installing extensive protection next to the building.

• Over 2 million customers suffered power cuts, of which 16,000 were without power for more than 48 hours;

• An 80 metre section of sea wall collapsed at Dawlish, Devon. This severed the main rail connection between the south-west of England and the rest of the country for around two months;

• Flooding of an electricity substation at Gatwick airport caused power loss in the North terminal and severe disruption over the busy Christmas period;

• The tidal-surge in December 2013 resulted in the flooding of substations that severely affected three major ports, disrupting trade for several days.

CASE STUDIES


• ALL NEW BUILDINGS NEED TO BE ‘NET’ ZERO CARBON FROM 2019. LEASING OF EPC F AND G PROPERTIES WILL BE BANNED FROM 2018.

• RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION, BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, THE SMART GRID, CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ARE WIDELY ADOPTED.

• EVERY SURFACE – ROOFS, GLAZING, PAVING – WILL BE A POWERSTATION WITH INTEGRATED RENEWABLES.

• POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD USE OF HYDROGEN AS A FUEL.

• GRID ELECTRICITY PRICES WILL BE 40% HIGHER IN REAL TERMS BY 2030.

ENERG

Y EFFICIEN

T Forecast grid electricity prices

(Source: DECC 2013)

RESOURCES ENERGY EFFICIENT

• Plan how existing and new build will meet upcoming energy performance regulations.

• Design M&E systems with future energy prices in mind, not just today’s.

• Design so renewable energy can be easily installed later, even if they’re not installed at new build.

• Multi-source energy centres allow energy managers to chose different power sources depending on price.

• Active demand management to automatically cut energy demand at peak costs.

• Carry out building retro comissioning audits as well as energy audits.

• Build plus energy buildings which produce more energy than they consume.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


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GETTING AHEAD OF REGULATIONA major retailer has planned how it will meet future zero carbon requirements. Through a combination of higher insulation and air tightness, energy efficiency and allowable solutions.

SOLAR PANELS AT BLACKFRIARS STATIONInstallation of solar panels was carried out as part of Network Rail’s redevelopment in 2015. Today this is the largest solar panel installation in London.

RESOURCES ENERGY EFFICIENT

BOMBAY SAPPHIRE DISTILLERYThe winner of the 2014 BREEAM Industrial Award includes a biomass boiler, photovoltaics and a hydro-electric turbine in the River Test.

CASE STUDIES


• CLIMATE CHANGE COULD REDUCE UK SUMMER RIVER FLOWS BY 50-80% BY 2050. WATER ABSTRACTIONS WILL BE RESTRICTED BY THE WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE’S REQUIREMENTS TO RAISE RIVER QUALITY BY 2027. ABSTRACTION LICENCE TRADING WILL BE MORE COMMON.

• WATER EFFICIENT FIXTURES AND FITTINGS IN ALL.

• PUBLIC EXPECTATION THAT WATER LEAKS ARE A THING OF THE PAST.

• INSTALL RAINWATER CAPTURE ON NEW BUILD.

• CHEAP RENEWABLE ENERGY OPENS UP WIDESCALE, LOW CARBON DESALINATION OPPORTUNITIES

WATER EFFIC

IENT

• Water companies will take the lead on efficiency, leak reduction and customer engagement.

• Smart tariffs – different prices during the year, higher charges for higher uses.

• Higher efficiencies fixtures and fittings in all homes and businesses. Water meters as standard.

• Understand the water footprint of key supplies, especially where these are sourced from water scarce areas. Install rainwater capture on new build.

• Embedded smart leak detection systems to identify leak location and fix in-situ.

• Building scale micro and nano water treatment.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES

RESOURCES WATER EFFICIENT


WATER EFFIC

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EMBEDED WATER IN A TYPICAL AUSTRALIAN HOUSEA 2004 study estimated that it took around 15 years worth of operational water (cooking, cleaning, washing, drinking, toilet flushing and gardening) to make the products that went into the house. This study estimated that a kilo of concrete uses around two litres of water to make, a kilo of timber about 20 litres, a kilo of steel about 40 litres, a kilo of aluminium about 88 litres, and that a kilo of plastic has about 185 litres of embedded water.

Barcelona, Berlin and a number of US states have domestic water charging structures which gives the first amount of water at very low costs, charging increasing unit rates as a household’s use goes up. These pricing structures cut usage but have also been criticised as being regressive.

INCREASING BLOCK TARIFFS FOR WATER USE

CASE STUDIES

RECYCLING WASTEWATER FOR PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY AT WICHITA FALLS, TEXASWichita Falls, a city with 100,000 citizens in northern Texas has faced serious drought since 2010. In response, the city began a trial scheme in July 2014 to pump 5 million gallons of water every day (around one third of total demand) from the city’s wastewater treatment plant directly back to public drinking supply. The scheme has passed drinking water standards, although has inevitably faced challenges with asking a city to drink its treated sewage. However with more areas facing drought from climate change, other cities are increasingly looking to follow Wichita Falls’ example.

RESOURCES WATER EFFICIENT


• CONSTRUCTION RESOURCES, ESPECIALLY SAND AND GRAVEL MAY BE IN SHORTER SUPPLY IN THE FUTURE.

• INFRASTRUCTURE CARBON REVIEW WILL DRIVE HIGHER EFFICIENCY AND REPORTING OF EMBODIED CARBON IN PRODUCTS.

• TIGHTER PRODUCT AND WASTE STANDARDS WILL PROMOTE WASTE USE.

• NEW LOW-CARBON MATERIALS, AND MANUFACTURING PROCESSES, INCLUDING LOW CARBON CEMENT, AND RAPID PROTOTYPING, WILL ALLOW NEW MODELS OF INDUSTRIAL AND PERSONAL SCALE MANUFACTURING.

MATERIA

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Great Britain: Intensity of use of primary aggregates per unit (£1000) of construction output in constant values, 1960 - 2010

(Source: UK Minerals Yearbook, MGS)

RESOURCES MATERIAL EFFICIENT

• Understand the risk to your business of a much higher cost key resource.

• Design lower carbon intensity products and solutions.

• Design for reuse – not just as materials to be crushed for aggregate.

• Measure the embodied carbon and water of designs.

• Additive construction techniques such as 3D printing become the norm.

• Offsite construction to improve build quality and material efficiency.

• Product as service offerings, leasing outputs rather than buying inputs.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


MATERIA

L EFFICIEN

TRESOURCES MATERIAL EFFICIENT

CASE STUDIES

LAFARGE TARMAC’S LOW CARBON CONCRETES USE BY-PRODUCTS FROM OTHER INDUSTRIESLafarge Tarmac, and other cement manufacturers, have been developing concretes with lower carbon footprints. The carbon footprint of clinker, whose production is responsible for a large proportion of concrete’s carbon footprint, is being reduced, for example, by using biomass fuels. In addition, the carbon footprint of cement and concrete is further reduced by developing multi-component designs, with lower clinker contents, that incorporate by-products from other industries, such as slag from steel production or fly ash from coal-fired power plants as a substitute. Importantly, Lafarge Tarmac is also promoting the use of the inherent thermal mass benefits of concrete which can reduce or eliminate the need for heating or cooling of a building during its use, leading to major reductions in whole life carbon footprint.

CARPET RENTALDesso supply carpets to commercial customers. Instead of conventionally selling their product, they lease their carpet to users, retaining ownership of the product. At the end of the useful life, the carpet is collected and then recycled in to new carpet which is leased again.

RENOVATION OF THE TOUR BOIS-LE-PRÊTRE, PARIS, FRANCEThis renovation of a crumbling 1960s tower block in Paris nicknamed ‘Alcatraz’ topped the architecture category of the London Design Museum’s Designs of the Year awards 2013. The 16-storey Tour Bois-le-Prêtre, contains 96 apartments in the northern outskirts of the city, but after 60 years of ageing and neglect the building needed a significant overhaul to bring the accommodation up to modern standards. Completed at half the cost of demolition and new build and with no rehousing during the renovation, the flats, and surrounding area, were transformed by expanding each apartment with balconies and replacing small windows with walls of glass. Residents didn’t need to be rehoused during the works.


• THE VOLUME OF WASTE ARISING FROM THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR WILL BECOME A KEY FOCUS.

• BY 2030 LANDFILL OF WASTE IN THE UK WILL BE VERY MUCH THE EXCEPTION.

• COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES TO EXPLOIT REUSE AND RECYCLING OF KEY RESOURCES.

• JUST IN TIME MANUFACTURING REPLACES JUST IN TIME DELIVERY.

ZERO W

ASTE

RESOURCES ZERO WASTE

• Modular construction delivers major efficiencies. Next generation will give a blend between hard engineering and soft fit outs, allowing bespoking on a common theme.

• 3D printing and other technologies provides customised components on demand.

• Design for rebuild, not just crushing waste for aggregates.

• European Commission’s circular economy plans focus on standards for secondary building materials.

• Use standardised components to allow refurbishment and reuse.

• See end of life buildings and structures as an asset, not just a waste.

POSSIBLE RESPONSESWaste arisings by sector, UK , 2004 - 2012

(Source: DEFRA 2015 Waste Prevention Metric)

Million tonnes


ZERO W

ASTE

THE OPEN STRUCTURES PROJECTThe open structures project will enable everybody to design compatible parts, components and structures independently from one another.

In March 2014 Chinese company WinSun claimed to have printed 10 houses in 24 hours, using a proprietary 3D printer that uses a mixture of ground construction and industrial waste, such as glass and tailings, around a base of quick-drying cement mixed with a special hardening agent. Now, WinSun has further demonstrated the efficacy of its technology - with a five-storey apartment building on display at Suzhou Industrial Park.

THE WORLD’S FIRST 3D PRINTED APARTMENT

RESOURCES ZERO WASTECASE STUDIES


• EDGE OF TOWN RETAIL WILL CONVERT TO OFFICE PARKS, CITY OFFICES COULD CHANGE TO RESIDENTIAL.

• FIT OUTS WILL NEED TO BE FLEXIBLE ALLOWING QUICK CHANGES WITHOUT WASTE AND COST.

• FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE WILL REQUIRE FLEXIBLE RESPONSES.

FLEXIBLE

RESOURCES FLEXIBLE

• Design buildings and structures that can be easily adapted to different uses.

• “Plug and play”, modular designs will allow easy fit out changes, with little waste and obsolescence.

• The best designs will allow flexible changes to respond to real life.

• For social care, make internal house design and layout flexible to accommodate changing needs, and so residents know they can stay in their homes as their needs change.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES

The Tetris Business Park, Ghent, Belgium


FLEXIBLEMODULAR REFRIGERATION LETS RETAILERS ADD, OR REMOVE CHILLED AISLES

EASILYInstead of designing bespoke systems, next generation retail refrigeration is modular, plug and play technology. New refrigerated aisles can be easily added. Fridges can be removed for change of use.

Future retail trends mean that some edge of town retail will no longer be viable, converting to offices in response. The former Furnitureland in Peterborough has been converted into offices.

FLEXIBLE BUILDINGS ALLOW CHANGE OF USE WITHOUT DEMOLITION

RESOURCES FLEXIBLECASE STUDIES

MODERN OFFICES RESPOND TO STAFF NEEDS, SUCH AS SECURE BIKE PARKING AND CHANGINGTen years ago cycling to the office was a minority activity. Today, secure bike parking with lockers and showers is an essential for many office workers. Flexible workspaces can respond to this changing demand, and the next trend, not yet spotted.


• TECHNOLOGY AND BETTER MANAGEMENT WILL INCREASE ASSET USE.

• LAND WILL HAVE MULTIPLE USES – BUILDING HIGHER AND LOWER.

• FLEXIBLE SPACES WITH BUILDINGS AND AREAS HAVING MORE THAN ONE USE OVER THE DAY.

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RESOURCES MORE INTENSE

• Zone land vertically – making multiple uses of land.

• Build in flexible spaces for communities to use for a wide variety of uses. Indoors could be community centers for start up businesses, training, cafes. Outdoor spaces could be for festivals, events and sports.

• Build flexible commercial spaces – offices in the day, night school in the evening, tech-hub for the night owls.

• Use digital sensing to evidence and understand how infrastructure is used, allowing more intensive use of assets.

• Home working, use of office hubs to increase the use of residential areas and cut demand for transport and infrastructure.

• Differential pricing and rewards to spread morning / evening peak demand on key infrastructure – such as rail lines.

• Make the most of the sharing economy – using or developing businesses similar to airbnb and parkonmydrive.com.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


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NEW SIGNALLING ON THE LONDON UNDERGROUND INCREASES TRAIN FREQUENCYIntroduction of moving block signals on the Jubilee and Victoria lines has allowed an extra 2 to 3 trains an hour to run on each line. It might not sound much, but that’s around an extra 10% capacity at peak times.

WSP’s research indicates there’s room for 630,000 new homes in London by building apartments above our hospitals, schools and libraries. Clapham Library is a good example of what can be achieved in public – private combination. The project is part of the Clapham One regeneration plan and combines a stunning new library/performance space with 136 private flats above the library.

CLAPHAM ONE LIBRARY BUILDING, LONDON COMBINES HOUSING WITH PUBLIC BUILDINGS

RESOURCES MORE INTENSECASE STUDIES

MOVING THE A3 AT TOLWORTH, SW LONDON UNDERGROUNDThe A3 at Tolworth could be moved underground to free up land for development, the Mayor of London has announced. Sinking the key traffic artery into a tunnel would improve the environment at the junction, currently one of the areas’s pollution hotspots. The plans also suggest that decking over the A3 would reduce ‘severance’ - the separation of communities by transport infrastructure and traffic - and provide new land for homes.


• THE VALUE THAT NATURE AND ECOSYSTEMS PROVIDE - BOTH THE RESOURCES THAT ECOSYSTEMS SUPPLY AND THE REGULATING, HABITAT AND CULTURAL VALUE THEY BRING - BECOMES MUCH BETTER UNDERSTOOD.

• THE PRICE OF USING NATURAL RESOURCES AND SERVICES MORE CLOSELY REFLECTS THE FULL VALUE (USUALLY MUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY!).

• THE VALUE OF NATURAL SYSTEMS DRIVES PLANNING AND BECOMES INTEGRAL TO MASTERPLAN DESIGNS. NATURE IS SEEN AS SOMETHING TO WORK WITH RATHER THAN TO TAME.

• NATURAL SOLUTIONS BECOME AN IMPORTANT WAY TO MANAGE AND ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE.

NATU

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RESOURCES NATURE PROTECTION

• One of the highest return investment opportunities highlighted by the UK’s Natural Capital Committee is the opportunity to build urban green spaces bringing recreation opportunities and helping physical / mental health for communities.

• Involve landscape architects to bring imagination and inspiration.

• Preserve what’s there for new developments.

• Install small scale nature enhancements in existing schemes – food, nest boxes, shelters.

• Plant pollutant-tolerant species in urban areas to improve air quality.

• Produce an Environmental Profit and Loss account alongside a business P&L to understand the impact if nature fully charged the service it provides.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


The difference in woodland planting based on i) market prices alone ii) market prices plus recreational value, creating a

legacy of multipurpose, woodlands for future generations.

(Source: UK Natural Capital Committee)

FLOOD PROTECTION IN SALFORD, GREATER MANCHESTER – AND A WILDLIFE HAVEN AT THE SAME TIMEA new flood basin, to be built in the Lower Kirsal area of Salford will protect residents from a 1 in 100 year flood from the river Irwell. As well as flood protection, the area will also create an 8 hectare open area for the local community – with paths suitable for all users, and a nature reserve. Paths up to the top of a knoll, built from the excavated material will enable people to look out over the wetland area and the basin.

The eastern end of Derbyshire Street, Bethnal Green, was a dead-end road with only one function – space for twelve car-parking bays. Despite the surrounding urban spaces being a hive of activity, the dead-end provided only an opportunity for anti-social behaviour and fly-tipping. Ambitious proposals were prepared and funding from the Mayor of London’s pocket park initiative means that today the area is transformed with a cycle lane, new seating and planters that capture rainwater from nearby roofs, courtesy of Thames Water.

DERBYSHIRE STREET POCKET PARK TRANSFORMS AN EAST LONDON STREET

RESOURCES NATURE PROTECTIONCASE STUDIES

NEW YORK CITY SECURES ITS DRINKING SUPPLIES BY CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT RATHER THAN TREATMENT.New York City obtains 90% of its drinking water from the Catskill and Delaware watershed, around 130 miles from the city. Changing agricultural drivers and growing urbanisation in the Catskills were threatening water quality, which forced city officials to consider treatment of its water supply to ensure it continued to meet water quality standards. A traditional approach would have been to build a filtration facility, at a cost of between US$8-10 billion. Instead the city invested $1.5bn in a catchment management programme – working with farmers to change their practices and buying key upland catchments.


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Picture: Greysmith Associates

• MORE TERROR THREATS – FROM NEW SOURCES SUCH AS MOTORCYCLE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES.

• CRIME A LOWER CONCERN, BUT LOCAL FACTORS ARE IMPORTANT.

• HIGHER CYBER RISK - MALWARE, HACKING, PHISHING AND DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACKS.

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Reported crime trends in England & Wales1981 – 2013/14

(Source: Crime Survery for England & Wales - Office of National Statistics, Police recorded crime - Home Office)

VALUE CHANGE MORE TERROR, LESS CRIME

• Follow “secured by design principles” in all major new build projects.

• Include a strong risk management programme that systematically identifies potential security risks and manages these across the project or programme.

• Design tall buildings to withstand upward as well as downward forces.

• Retrofit security into all existing control networks. Experts note that there are many systems that have been in cities for 20 or 30 years, and they were installed without security in mind.

• Design new network systems with strong security – both from external attack and internal rogues.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES


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East Shopping Centre in Newham is Europe’s first purpose-built indoor boutique Asian shopping centre. The project was developed using Secured by Design principles – from CCTV to access control systems.

EAST SHOPPING CENTRE, DESIGNED FOR SECURITY

DESIGNING SECURITY TO LOOK GOODSecurity needs to look good too – no one wants to live or work in a fortress of gates and barriers. But if properly tested, planters, trees, sculpture and other street furniture can do this job far more gracefully and can prevent terror attacks.

VALUE CHANGE MORE TERROR, LESS CRIME

THE RISKS FROM HACKS TO THE UK RAIL NETWORKThe European Rail Traffic Management System is due to take over take command of trains on some of the UK’s busy intercity routes by the 2020s. Its aim is to make networks safer by reducing the risk of driver mistakes. However some network electronic experts, such as Professor David Stupples from City University have stated on the BBC that if someone hacked into the system they could cause a ‘nasty accident’ or ‘major disruption’. The system is well protected against outside attack, but he says danger could come from a rogue insider.

CASE STUDIES


• INTEREST IN HEALTH IS GROWING, HEALTH BECOMING AS IMPORTANT AS SAFETY IN ‘HEALTH AND SAFETY’.

• REACH REGULATION PROGRESSIVELY PHASES OUT HIGH RISK SUBSTANCES.

• PARTS OF LONDON, BIRMINGHAM AND LEEDS ARE EXPECTED BY DEFRA TO REMAIN IN BREACH OF EUROPEAN NO2 AIR QUALITY STANDARDS BEYOND 2030.

• ALL PARTS OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT ARE SEEN AS KEY FOR THE HEALTH AND WELLBEING FOR CITIZENS AND STAFF.

• GREATER DEMAND FOR HEALTHY, PRODUCTIVE BUILDINGS DIRECTLY EVIDENCING BETTER SCHOOL AND HOSPITAL PERFORMANCE, AND INCREASED RETAIL SALES, FOR EXAMPLE.

• GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, SUCH AS PARKS, SEEN AS INTEGRAL TO BOTH WELLBEING AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE.

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Number of UK Google searches for ‘Healthy’ 2011 - 2014

(Source: Googletrends)

• Include health and wellbeing as a core element in all design and refurbishment briefs.

• Design to make the easiest approach the most healthy one - the stairs, not the lift. The bike not the car.

• Safety in design provides a balance between safety of road users and the safety of maintenance teams.

• Design out hazardous chemicals. Cradle to cradle approaches provide leadership.

• Pay attention to indoor air quality, especially as homes become more air tight.

• Develop and obtain strong empirical evidence of the link between well designed buildings and client outcomes.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES

VALUE CHANGE HEALTHY AND WELL


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BIRMINGHAM’S CYCLE REVOLUTIONBirmingham City Council’s Vision is to make cycling an everyday way to travel in Birmingham over the next 20 years. The target is to achieve 5% of all trips in the city to be made by bike by 2023 and to double this again to 10% by 2033. This will help to make the city “healthier, greener, safer and less congested”. The strategy starts by improving cycling facilities within a 20-minute cycling time of Birmingham city centre, with 95km of improvements to existing routes and 115km of new cycle routes. See more here.

HA DMRB GD04/12 in road schemes provides a new balance between safety of road users and the safety of maintenance crews. This new approach could be applied to other sectors and provides a balance between the safety of road users, and the safety of road maintenance crews. In some cases, barriers are not now designed into bends in the road – where the risk of a car leaving the road is sufficiently low and, statistically, represents a lower likelihood of an accident than the risks to the maintenance crews checking, cleaning and maintaining the barrier.

HIGHWAYS ENGLAND’S NEW SAFETY APPROACH

HERMAN MILLAR’S CRADLE TO CRADLE CERTIFIED OFFICE PRODUCTSIn the late 1990s, office furniture manufacturer Herman Miller, Inc., entered into a collaboration with architect William McDonough to create a system for designing cradle-to-cradle products. The first product Herman Miller designed using cradle-to-cradle principles was the Mirra chair. The process generated a number of design changes, including selecting a completely different material for the chair’s spine, increasing recycled content in chair components, eliminating all PVC (polyvinyl chloride) components, and designing the chair for rapid disassembly using common tools.

VALUE CHANGE HEALTHY AND WELLCASE STUDIES


http://www.wspgroup.com/en/WSP-UK/Who-we-are/Newsroom/News-releases1/2013/WSP-and-Birmingham-City-Council-produce-transport-strategy-to-combat-four-million-more-daily-trips/

• NEW INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES WILL IMPROVE ALL INFRASTRUCTURE (ELECTRICITY, WATER, WASTE AND TRANSPORT) BY PROVIDING DATA THAT ALLOWS QUICK DETECTION OF FAILURE, IMPROVEMENTS TO THE EFFICIENCY OF CONTROLS AND MORE INTENSIVE USE OF NETWORK.

• UBIQUITOUS SENSORS WILL BE THE EYES AND EARS FOR CONTEXT-AWARE SYSTEMS THAT CAN UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE ALL PARTS OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT – FROM TRAFFIC NETWORKS TO YOUR HOME HEATING.

• SENSORS ALLOW DETAILED MEASUREMENT OF PERFORMANCE, ALLOWING MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DESIGNS AND OUTCOMES.

• DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY WILL FACILITATE NEW WAYS TO DELIVER PRODUCTS AND SERVICES AND HOW WE LIVE.

• WHILE ‘SMART’ WILL BE EVERYWHERE, TRADITIONAL ELEMENTS OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL REMAIN KEY.

• EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE MAY BE REPURPOSED FOR NEW USES (E.G. FIXED LINE TELEPHONE NETWORKS ARE TURNED INTO BROADBAND CARRIERS).

SMA

RT

• Technology will allow new ways to deliver services, freeing up buildings.

• Technology a key element in all built environment solutions.

• Design for future technology, even if this isn’t installed right away.

• Ensure public acceptance and trust that the ‘big data’ collected will be stored securely and fairly used.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES

TECHNOLOGY SMART


SMA

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TELEHEALTH ALLOWS PATIENTS TO MONITOR AND MANAGE THEIR MEDICAL CONDITIONS FROM HOMEIn Cornwall, BT is managing the care for 1,200 telehealth users and 11,000 telecare users through BT Cornwall, its ten year partnership with Cornwall Council, Peninsula Community Health and Cornwall Partnership NHS Foundation Trust

With the deployment of so many sensors and other information-gathering devices, city managers will be able to understand their city as never before. This is happening already. Some cities in the United States have deployed acoustic sensors which can detect gunshots. Police departments had historically assumed that residents called the police 80% of the time when shots were heard. In San Francisco, after the sensors were in place, the police discovered that residents called the police only 10% of the time when shots were heard.

THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING UNCOVERS NEW INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY SMART

Tesco set up a virtual shop in the Seoul metro allowing passengers to order their groceries via digital shelves that looked just like the real ones and were full of produce that could be scanned into their smartphones on the way to work. By the time they got home, the goods had been delivered. Similar trials were also run at Gatwick airport in 2012 and a virtual reality trial in 2014. Meanwhile Amazon is taking plans to deliver via drone seriously and has recently applied for a flying licence from the US Federal Aviation Authority.

TESCO’S VIRTUAL SHOP IN KOREA

CASE STUDIES


• NEW MATERIALS WILL ALLOW NEW BUILDINGS TO BE MUCH MORE EXCITING AND INCLUDE IMAGINATIVE DESIGNS.

• NEW, LIGHT, STRONG MATERIALS HELP CUT EMBODIED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION.

• SELF-HEALING ACTIVE SURFACES ON MATERIALS, SUCH AS CONCRETE AND PAINT, HELP INCREASE BUIDLING DURABILITY AND LONGEVITY

• NEW MATERIALS WILL INTERACT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT, CLEANING THE AIR, GENERATING ENERGY.

• NEW MATERIALS WILL BE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT, ALLOWING MUCH HIGHER INSULATION IN THINNER AND MORE ATTRACTIVE WAYS, FOR EXAMPLE.

• NEW MATERIALS WILL CREATE HEALTHIER ENVIRONMENTS.

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• A strong, engaging research programme to keep track of emerging technologies, including these in projects.

• A strong and systematic programme to systematically evaluate and integrate technologies into the business, rather than leaving this to chance.

• Gather data to provide a strong evidence base for material performance for wider application.

POSSIBLE RESPONSES

The Friends Arena, Stockholm, Sweden uses molybdenum-containing high-strength steel in long-span structures – allowing a lighter structure with lower embodied greenhouse gas emissions


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WENDY’S TITANIUM NANO-PARTICLES CLEANS THE AIR.Wendy, a summer installation by Marc Kushner, co-founder of Architizer, was coated with titanium nano-particles that essentially sucked pollution out of the air - activated by sunlight, when CO2 adhered to the surface and was washed away as a neutral element by rain water. Wendy’s skin took the equivalent of 250 cars off the road.

Google’s office in Amsterdam combines environmental aspirations - using non-toxic materials and prioritising energy and water saving in the design.

GOOGLE’S AMSTERDAM OFFICE

AEROGELS PROVIDE IMPROVED INSULATION AT A FRACTION OF THE THICKNESS.Because of aerogel’s unique structure, its use as an insulator a no-brainer. The super-insulating air pockets with the aerogel’s structure almost entirely counteract the three methods of heat transfer. It’s used in new buildings and also in refurbishments. This case study, from Historic Scotland, shows where it’s been used to insulate internal walls at listed buildings in Glasgow.

TECHNOLOGY NEW MATERIALSCASE STUDIES


HOW WE’LL WORKMuch of this guide has focussed on what we’ll design in the future and the role of our sector in supporting the transition to a sustainable, Future Ready economy. We also see a world where our businesses will operate differently. The key trends we’re anticipating are:

• Transparent – a world where every part of our work is visible to whoever is interested.

• Health – especially mental health - becomes as important as safety in workplace programmes. Mental health training will be as common as safety.

• Agile working, including location and time of work means the boundaries between work, family and leisure will blend.

HOW WE WORK


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• Building Information Modelling (BIM) becomes the standard way of designing and managing assets across their life.

• Governance – continuing strengthening of the Financial Reporting Commion’s Corporate Governance Code – beyond September 2014’s revision.

• Tax – the EU’s Common Reporting Standard, the US’s FACT Act means that by 2030 there’s likely to be comprehensive exchange of tax information between most tax authorities. The OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project should greatly reduce the potential for reducing a group’s tax bill by profit shifting.

• Diversity - particularly gender equality will eventually result in compulsory equal pay audits by 2030. Global businesses will proactively staff from a wide range of ethnic backgrounds. At the most edgy, a proposed European directive could set targets for a minimum of 40% of non-executive directors to be drawn from under-represented genders by 1 Jan 2020.

• Skills – reducing demand for low skilled trades with all roles needing higher skills. Staff will be more skilled and have higher technical competencies.

• Trust – business, governments and politicians have to re-establish trust, or our future is one of ever greater regulation. Technology and social media will drive trust as much as PR and media teams.


WHO WE EMPLOY, AND PROMOTE

HOW THE SECTOR IS PERCEIVED

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This document is one of a series of sector guides produced with support from Business in the Community on the United Kingdom in 2030. Special thanks also to to other members of BITC’s future insights project team for their support, insight and expertise in the production of this guide.

BUSINESS

IN THECOMMUNITY

ABOUT WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFFWSP and Parsons Brinckerhoff have combined and are now one of the world’s leading engineering professional services consulting firms. Together we provide services to transform the built environment and restore the natural environment, and our expertise ranges from environmental remediation to urban planning, from engineering iconic buildings to designing sustainable transport networks, and from developing the energy sources of the future to enabling new ways of extracting essential resources. We have approximately 32,000 employees, including engineers, technicians, scientists, architects, planners, surveyors, programme and construction management professionals, and various environmental experts. We are based in more than 500 offices across 39 countries worldwide. www.wspgroup.com www.pbworld.com.

© 2015 WSP Global Inc. All rights reserved.The content of this publication is proprietaryto WSP Global Inc. and may not bereproduced by any means in whole or in part,without prior written consent.UK-MK-BR-001-EN-201505Printed in the United Kingdom

To discuss in more detail, please contactDavid [email protected]+44 (0)20 7314 5725

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