the urban genome project: deciphering ities’...• more than half the world’s population is now...

The Urban Genome Project: Deciphering Cities’ DNA to solve sustainability challenges

Monash University Sustainability InstituteFebruary 10, 2010

Jonathan Fink, DirectorCenter for Sustainability Science Applications

Arizona State University

Outline of Today’s Presentation

1) Personal and ASU background

2) ASU’s Global Institute of Sustainability

3) Role of cities in addressing sustainability

4) Different sectors’ approaches to urban systems

5) Rationale for an Urban Genome Project

6) Opportunities for Monash-ASU urban collaboration


Personal Background

• Volcanology professor at ASU

• Department Chair, VP Research, Sustainability Director

• Helped promote interdisciplinary culture at ASU

• Heavily involved in regional economic development

• New Center focuses on cross-sector sustainability research


Institutional Background - ASU

• One of largest universities in U.S. (~ 67,000 students)

• Four campuses in Metro Phoenix under one administration

• Interdisciplinary, global, socially relevant, use-inspired

• Sustainability has been a top institutional priority since 2002


Nature Editorial, April 26, 2007: ASU as “The university of the future”

Much of this recognition grew

from our sustainability program


ASU’s Global Institute of Sustainability

• First degree-granting School of Sustainability (BS, MS, PhD)

• University practices that reflect principles of sustainability

• University-wide Sustainability Research Federation

• Decision Theater links research to community’s policy needs


School of Sustainability: Emphasis areas

• Global urbanization

• Energy and materials

• Water quantity and quality

• Biodiversity

• Values and ethics

• Business practices


“The World’s First, so the World Lasts”

School of Sustainability: How it works

• SOS Faculty: some full-time, some shared, some “borrowed”

• Courses: Some just SOS, some shared, some distributed

• Students: Majors and minors in Sustainability

• 650 undergrad majors in second year; 75 grad students

• Most ASU Schools now want their own sustainability programs


ASU Sustainable Business Practices

• Solid waste

• Transportation

• Energy

• Buildings

• Food

• Purchasing

• Water conservation

• Public education


Whether or not one “believes” in global climate change, the path we are on is unsustainable

If everyone in the world lived like an average North American, we would need five planets to live on


How to best respond to the need for change?

Countries sign global treatiesBut binding agreements, if any, are watered down

Companies find ways to profit from changeBut if profits and public good conflict, profit wins

Individuals can change their behaviorBut unless everyone does it, most put it off

Cities and regions try lots of different approachesBut each one tends to do its own thing

Each city can be considered an experiment


Cities are ideal scale to address sustainability

• More than half the world’s population is now urban

• Cities are best scale to balance consumption and resources

• Urban density leads to reduced energy and water consumption

• Population within a city easier to communicate with

• People more responsive to local politics


Large cities have lower per capita CO2 emissions

City population size

< 500,000 1,000,000-1,499,999500,000-999,999 >1,500,000

6.74

4.735.03

3.77

CO

2Em

issi

on

s p

er

cap

ita


Transportation emissions scale with population density

How can we greatly improve these efficiencies?


Massive urbanization in China and elsewhere offer opportunities to create large impacts

400M Chinese moving to cities from rural areas


Four sectors help conduct urban experiments

NGOs

Government

Corporations

Educate DiscoverConveneIntegrate

AdvocateDefend InformSolicit

ContributeInnovateEmploy Invest

UniversitiesFund

ProtectRegulate

Negotiate


How can Federal urban systems research be better coordinated?


AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY

FORESTSLAND USE AGRICULTURE

ENERGY

How can Federal urban systems research be better coordinated?


AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY

How can the study of urban systems be coordinated?


Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

Federal approach to urban systems is fragmented

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

ADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

GPEC

AERO

ADOT ADOA

MAG SFAz

State &Local

Agencies

State and local agencies have same problem

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

ADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

GPEC

AERO

ADOT ADOA

MAG SFAz

State &Local

Agencies

ASU

NSF

CAP-LTER

ASU used one project to connect pieces for Phoenix

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

ADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

GPEC

AERO

ADOT ADOA

MAG SFAz

State &Local

Agencies

ASU

NSF

CAP-LTERGIOS

Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS)formalized the university’s integrative role

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

ADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

GPEC

AERO

ADOT ADOA

MAG SFAz

State &Local

Agencies

ASU

NSF

CAP-LTERGIOS

Do urban transport and land use affect water?

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

ADEQ

APS SRP

ADWR

ADHS

ADOC

GPEC

AERO

ADOT ADOA

MAG SFAz

State &Local

Agencies

ASU

NSF

CAP-LTERGIOS

How do energy efficiency and climate interact?

AIR

HEALTHHOUSING

WATER

TRANSPORTATION

MANUFACTURING

CLIMATE

URBAN SECURITY


ENERGY



Federal Mission

Agencies

NIEHSDOE

EPA

NASA

NOAA

USGS

USFS

DOC

DOD

HUD

USDABLM

DOT

DHS

DOL

DOJ

CDC

First joint Federal urban research program in 2009

HUD-DOT-EPA Initiative for Sustainable Communities

Metro Phoenix as a laboratory

• 5th largest, 2nd fastest-growing city in US

• Relatively easy to model

• Large federal urban research projects

• State agencies, industry, universities collaborate well

• ASU’s sustainability focus is on Phoenix

• Already feeling climate impacts (heat, drought, migration)


• Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure

• Population: well-documented; rapid growth

• Cultural: built on ancient Hohokam canals (AD 1000)

• Topography/Tectonics: Basin and Range; stable

• Water: aquifers; canals; reservoirs; streams; Colorado River

• Air: eastward flow; heat island; brown cloud; monsoon

• Land Use: desert agriculture urban

• Economy: mining/agriculture high tech/tourism

• Housing: Cheaper on periphery; follows freeways

Simple boundary conditions for modeling Phoenix


Grand challenges of urban sustainabilityplaced in a Phoenix framework

• Eliminate water as a limit to prosperity in Arizona

• Replace all Arizona’s carbon-based energy with renewables

• Clean air to reduce childhood respiratory illnesses

• Design cities to reduce vulnerabilities to urban heat

• Use ICT, modeling and policies to end traffic congestion

• Develop city so biodiversity and ecosystem services increase

• Expand inexpensive, locally-grown food to reduce hunger

• Establish affordable, sustainable housing and communities

• Make region leader for sustainable technology innovation


ASU’s urban systems research projects

• CAP-LTER, one of two Urban LTERs

• Two Urban Ecology IGERTs (NSF)

• Agrarian-urban transitions (NSF)

• Heat Island Research Center (EPA)

• Urban Fluid Dynamics (ADEQ, EPA)

• 100 Cities remote sensing (NASA)

• Decision Center for a Desert City (NSF)

• Morrison Institute for Public Policy

• Center for Science, Policy & Outcomes


Central Arizona – Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research

CAP is one of only two urban LTERs

young cityrapid growtharid climate

rugged topography

old cityslower growthhumid climate

flat terrain

5

3

Phoenix

Baltimore


How does urbanization affect city’s underlying ecosystem?

How does regional ecosystem constrain urban development?

Underlying CAP-LTER Research Questions


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ð

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N101

T171

AB211

CAP-LTER 200 point surveyUniform data collected regularly

50 km


CAP analyzes complex urban impacts on ecosystems

• Chemical modifications

– Enhanced N, C deposition

– Addition of novel compounds and pollutants

• Hydrologic modifications

– Land cover changes

– Manipulation of water source, amount, quality

– Simplification of flow-paths


9.0 = 15 Evaporation(cooling water) + 5.2 +

Non-

consumptive

uses

17

SW6.0

0.74

2.2 4.8

Urban landscapes

0.620.49

1.0

1.1

2.1 (river)

Cropland

Groundwater

107.5

WWTP

Hydrologic balance for the CAP ecosystem

0.62

Surface water

Evaporation

Outflow

Internal transfers


Air pollution impacts on ground water and soil


Urban Heat Island Effect

Night time temperatures go up a lot in city


Sky Harbor Airport

N

How to reduce airport’s thermal footprint?

Urban heat island has health, water, and energy consequences


High Albedo

High Thermal

Mass

High Albedo

Low Thermal

Mass

Low Albedo

High Thermal

Mass

Low Albedo

Low Thermal

Mass

New materials can reduce airport’s impact

Anthropogenic

Heat


ASU-NASA 100 Cities remote sensing project


Existing

Planned

Negotiating

Partners


100 Cities Project:Standardized, repeated urban remote sensing

100 Cities Project:

• Annual day and night images collected for each city

• Goal is to partner with local groups in all 100 cities

• Can we develop a taxonomy of growing cities?

• How can cities minimize their environmental impact?

• Collaborating with World Bank


Visible to near-infrared

15 m/pixel

• Major land cover classes

• Vegetation health

• Soil properties

• Soil contamination

Las Vegas, NV, 17-Oct-2000

Shortwave infrared

30 m/pixel

• Urban surface materials

• Rooftop materials

• Energy use

• Fugitive dust production

• Metal contamination

• Ecological communities

Thermal infrared

90 m/pixel

• Surface energy balances

• Regional climate models

• Anthropogenic heat sources

• Heat island development

• Surface composition


Urban 4D NASA Proposal

• $30M for aircraft-based remote sensing of four cities

• NASA Goddard, Ames, Marshall Ctrs; NCAR, ASU, UGa, MIT

• Apply models from one city to all the others

• Understand inter-urban, multi-scale comparisons


Ultimate goal: “City Sat” remote sensing satellite

• Urban remote sensing data difficult to obtain

• Often can’t access satellite data of cities

• Existing instruments not optimized for cities

• Solution is a dedicated urban satellite system

• ASU and NASA now planning “CitySat”


Decision Center for a Desert City

Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and the Seven States Plan

Return to Starting Page

Powell

Max Powell storage

PowellEqualizations

LeesFerryInflow

Copy 2 of UpperBasin Use

Upper BasinConsumption

Holding Supply

Powell Watershed

Copy of Meadwatershed

2006 Powell Volume

Index Volume

Volume Thresholds

Rule to use

Seven States Rule

Balance Amount

Future - HistoricalSwitch

Upper Basin Flow

Upper BasinAllocation

Powell Evaporation

Predicted PowellUC Shortage

Copy of Powell toMead Colorado Index

Year

Predicted Powell

Projected NaturalFlow

Mead

Drought Factor

Colorado RandomFlow

Colorado meanColorado sd Colorado AER

Upper Consumptionduring shortfall

Powell Overflow

CO Beginning ofDrought

CO Drought Factor

CO Number DroughtYears

CO DroughtMultiplier

• Addresses urban water decision-making under uncertainty

• Regional stakeholders engaged from start to finish

• Decision Theater helps them assess alternative futures

• Could also apply to air pollution, energy, traffic, food


Phoenix has three water sources:Aquifers, Colorado River, Salt-Verde Rivers


Sources of Phoenix’s water uncertainty

Global climate change

Urban heat island

Annual rainfall variability

Total Annual Precipitation

Climate Division 4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

Pre

cip

itati

on

An

om

aly

(in

ch

es) CD 4: 1895-2004

1896-19041995-20041942-1956

Phoenix Population Growth

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

millio

ns

Population growth


“WaterSim” forecasting tool in Decision Theater

WaterSim has many user-adjustable variables


“WaterSim” framework connects models for hydrology, law, economics, climate, land use



Powell

Max Powell storage

PowellEqualizations

LeesFerryInflow



Holding Supply

Powell Watershed


2006 Powell Volume

Index Volume

Volume Thresholds

Rule to use

Seven States Rule

Balance Amount


Upper Basin Flow


Powell Evaporation



Year

Predicted Powell


Mead

Drought Factor

Colorado RandomFlow



Powell Overflow


CO Drought Factor



Lake Mead, Lake Powell and the Seven States Plan


“WaterSim” framework connects models for hydrology, law, economics, climate, land use



Powell

Max Powell storage

PowellEqualizations

LeesFerryInflow



Holding Supply

Powell Watershed


2006 Powell Volume

Index Volume

Volume Thresholds

Rule to use

Seven States Rule

Balance Amount


Upper Basin Flow


Powell Evaporation



Year

Predicted Powell


Mead

Drought Factor

Colorado RandomFlow



Powell Overflow


CO Drought Factor



Lake Mead, Lake Powell and the Seven States Plan

Monash University Sustainability InstituteFebruary 10, 2010 Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and the Seven States Plan


Powell

Max Powell storage

PowellEqualizations

LeesFerryInflow



Holding Supply

Powell Watershed


2006 Powell Volume

Index Volume

Volume Thresholds

Rule to use

Seven States Rule

Balance Amount


Upper Basin Flow


Powell Evaporation



Year

Predicted Powell


Mead

Drought Factor

Colorado RandomFlow



Powell Overflow


CO Drought Factor



WatershedSimulation

ClimateChange

Land Use &Population

PolicyTradeoffs

GroundwaterSustainability

Graph slider bars allow alternate futures to be assessed in real time

WET

DRY

More technical Less Technical

WaterSim also available online at http://watersim.asu.edu


Watershed Simulation


Climate Change


Land Use and Population


Policy Tradeoffs


Groundwater Sustainability


MIT Senseable Cities Lab’s “Copenhagen Wheel”:Improve urban data collection and mobility


World Bank’s Global City Indicators Facility:Common metrics for all the world’s cities


Cisco Systems’ Connected Urban Development:Informs city dwellers about their impacts


CUD’s Urban EcoMap for Amsterdam, San Francisco and Seoul


EcoMap shows environmental impact by zip code


IBM’s Smarter Cities program

Combines new sensor technologies with

computer models for better management

decisions


Non-IT corporations can be partners for urban sustainability research

• Wal-Mart: (retail supply chain)

• Waste Management Inc: (material flows)

• CEMEX: (construction materials)

• Veolia: (urban environmental monitoring)

• BP Solar: (urban renewable energy)

• U Haul: (social mobility)

• Henkel/Dial: (home products)

• Arizona Public Service: (electricity generation)

• Salt River Project: (urban water and power delivery)


What can Phoenix and other cities learn each from other?

• Cities taking the lead in discovering sustainable solutions

• Each city has unique challenges and opportunities

• Competition to be “green” helps cities find new ideas

• Regional cooperation is essential


Chicago

• Urban Heat Island mitigation policies include incentives for cool roofs, pavements, and urban forestry

Green and cool alley way project

Planted 500,000 new trees 2 million square feet of green roofs (more than rest of US)

Green roofs 70 degrees cooler


Vancouver, B.C.

• Neighborhood Energy Utility: Space heating and hot water use heat recovered from sewers and from solar collectors

• Climate Change Action Plan: All new construction in Vancouver will be GHG neutral by 2030


Curitaba, Brazil• All-bus rapid transit system: inexpensive “social fare” leads to

Brazil’s highest ridership, lowest per capita pollution

• Green Exchange employment program lets low income families trade their trash for bus tickets and food


Phoenix is dealing with problems today that other global cities will face in the future

• Water shortages due to consumptive lifestyles and low prices

• Heat island effect caused by hot climate and built environment

• Immigrants fleeing poverty and environmental degradation

• Auto-based economy vulnerable to high fuel costs

• Current lack of renewable energy generation

• Food, fuel, and water supplies transported long distances

• Epidemic of childhood asthma related to poor air quality


ASU contributions to “greening” of Phoenix

• ASU helped prepare $75M “Green Phoenix” US DOE proposal

• Sustainable City Network involves managers from all cities

• ASU helps recruit greentech companies like Suntech

• Customized research for urban sustainability solutions

– Renewable energy: Solar and algae-based biofuels

– Energy efficiency: Building and neighborhood redesigns

– Heat island effect mitigation: New materials and strategies


Sustainable Cities Network helps Metro Phoenix cities learn from each other


Dar esSalaam

Sao Paolo

BangkokAmmanASU-World Bank

NASA Urban Remote Sensing

Urban Vulnerability Assessments

Global City Indicators

Facility

PHX Peoria TempePhoenix Sustainable

Cities NetworkU.S. Regional

NetworksGlobal Urban

Regional networks

SFO Amsterdam SeoulCisco Connected

Urban DevelopmentOther CUD

CitiesCorporate Urban

Research Network

PHX Las Vegas TucsonDecision Center for a Desert City

U.S. water-stressed cities

WEAP-based Global Water Network

Urban 4DNASA-ASU 100 Cities

Houston Baltimore AtlantaPHXNASA-CDC-WB CitySat

UK-ASU collaboration PHX LondonTyndall Centre

UK CitiesEU-COST Urban

Network

PHX ChicagoUrban Heat IslandEPA-CDC

UHI NetworkAtlanta

Global UHI Network

PHX BaltimoreUrban LTER sitesOther LTER

urban studiesILTSER Urban

Network

PHX BeijingASU-CAS Joint Center

on Urban Sustainability Other

Chinese citiesFastest-growing Cities Network

Comparative studies of cities

Do We Need an Urban Genome Project?

• Human Genome Project (HGP) sought to cure human diseases

• Urban Genome Project seeks to cure planetary diseases

• Each person has unique characteristics embedded in DNA

• Each city’s unique characteristics are reflected in its “DNA”

• HGP required multiagency and private sector funding

• Urban Genome Project needs multi-sector support

• But who will oversee it? WB? UN? NAS? OSTP? NASA?


Monash-ASU urban collaboration options?

• Fast-growing cities on the front line of climate change

• Highly-stressed water supplies

• Growing heat island effects

• Immigration issues

• Regional governance challenges

• Air quality

• Agricultural conversion


Center for Sustainability Science Applications: http://cssa.asu.edu

Global Institute of Sustainability: http://sustainability.asu.edu

School of Sustainability: http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu

Decision Theater: http://dt.asu.edu

Central Arizona-Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research: http://caplter.asu.edu

ASU Heat Island Research: http://asusmart.com

100 Cities program: http://100cities.asu.edu

Decision Center for a Desert City: http://dcdc.asu.edu

WaterSim: http://watersim.asu.edu

Sustainable Cities Network: http://sustainablecities.asu.edu

MIT Senseable Cities Laboratory: http://senseable.mit.edu

Copenhagen Wheel http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/ratti-copenhagen-1216.html

Copenhagen Wheel Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5k25-hHNrc

Cisco Connected Urban Development: http://www.connectedurbandevelopment.org

Urban EcoMap: http://www.urbanecomap.org

IBM Smarter Cities: http://www.ibm.com/smartercities

World Bank’s Global City Indicator Facility: http://www.cityindicator.org

One Planet Living: http://www.oneplanetliving.org


http://cssa.asu.edu/







http://sustainability.asu.edu/







http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/







http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://dt.asu.edu/

http://caplter.asu.edu/







http://asusmart.com/





http://100cities.asu.edu/









http://dcdc.asu.edu/







http://watersim.asu.edu/







http://sustainablecities.asu.edu/







http://senseable.mit.edu/

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/ratti-copenhagen-1216.html






http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5k25-hHNrc



http://www.connectedurbandevelopment.org/







http://www.urbanecomap.org/







http://www.ibm.com/smartercities







http://www.cityindicator.org/







http://www.oneplanetliving.org/







the urban genome project: deciphering ities’...• more than half the world’s population is now...

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