the u.s. and global economies: outlook and implications ... · china india russia brazil mexico...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications
for P/C InsuranceBrokers & Reinsurance Market Association
BRMA 2011 Committee Rendezvous
Princeton, NJ
April 11, 2011
Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038
Office: 212.346.5540 Cell: 917.494.5945 [email protected] www.iii.org
![Page 2: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
The Global Economic Outlook*
*Before March 11, 2011
A Two-Speed Recovery:Emerging Economies in Third Gear,
Advanced Economies in First
![Page 3: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Relative Shares of Global Output,Advanced vs. Developing Economies, 2009
Developing
Economies
47.1%
Advanced
Economies
52.9%
Source: EDC Economics, “The Moment of Truth: Global Export Forecast Fall 2010, at http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/gef_e.pdf
![Page 4: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
(3)
0
3
6
9
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
F
12
F
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2011; Ins. Info. Institute.
Emerging economies (led by China) are expected to
grow by 6.5% in 2011.
GDP Growth: Advanced vs.Emerging Economies, 1970-2012F
Advanced economies grew slowly (+3.0%) in 2010 with
deceleration expected in 2011, dampening insurance demand
GDP Growth (%)
![Page 5: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Forecasts of 2011 & 2012 GDPof Advanced Economies
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Jan 2011 Update; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (3/2011 issue); Insurance Information Institute.
3.1%
1.8%2.7%
1.7% 1.5%
2.8%3.3%
2.2% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8%
3.0%2.3%
1.6%1.6%2.2%2.0%
3.0% 2.7%1.8%1.8%2.0%2.3%2.7%
0%
4%
8%
12%
United States United
Kingdom
Germany France Japan Canada
2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC
The January 2011 IMF forecasts for growth in advanced economies in 2011 is generally around 2%. The March 2011 Blue Chip forecasts are a little higher. The outcome could be worse if supplies of middle-eastern oil (political disruption),
developments involving sovereign debt (the PIGS or other countries) or Japanese exports (earthquake/tsunami effects) are worse than expected.
![Page 6: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Forecasts of 2011 & 2012 GDPof Developing Economies
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Jan 2011 Update; Insurance Information Institute.
9.3%
8.3%
4.2%5.0%
4.1%
9.1%8.5%
4.2%
5.1%
3.7%4.2%4.5%4.5%
8.4%
9.6%
4.8%4.1%4.4%
8.0%
9.5%
0%
4%
8%
12%
China India Russia Brazil Mexico
2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC
IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will outpace advanced ones in 2011. This will accelerate the growth of insurance
exposures in emerging markets relative to the U.S., W. Europe and Japan.
![Page 7: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
07
:Q1
20
07
:Q2
20
07
:Q3
20
07
:Q4
20
08
:Q1
20
08
:Q2
20
08
:Q3
20
08
:Q4
20
09
:Q1
20
09
:Q2
20
09
:Q3
20
09
:Q4
20
10
:Q1
20
10
:Q2
20
10
:Q3
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2011; Ins. Info. Institute.
Emerging economies kept investing (except for
2 quarters) throughout the Great Recession
Real Gross Fixed Investment: Advancedvs. Emerging Economies, 2007:Q1-2010:Q3
Advanced economies dis-invested throughout
the Great Recession
Annualized% Changefrom prior quarter
![Page 8: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Insurance “Penetration”and “Density”
Beyond Exposure Growth,Insurers Need
Increased Use of Insurance
![Page 9: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Definitions:Measures of Insurance Usage
“Penetration”
The ratio of premium to GDP
Indicates the degree to which premium growth kept up with exposure growth (as proxied by GDP)
“Density”
The ratio of premium to total population
Indicates the breadth of use of insurance
Source: Swiss Re, Sigma, various volumes
![Page 10: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Non-life Premium/GDP* (Penetration)for Advanced Economies, 2001-2009
4.5
7%
3.4
5%
2.2
2%
2.8
5%
3.5
9%
4.9
8%
4.5
6%
2.2
2%
2.9
7%
3.7
0%
5.2
3%
4.7
5%
2.2
0%
3.1
6%
3.8
2%
5.1
4%
3.6
8%
2.2
5%
3.1
4%
3.8
6%
5.0
1%
3.5
5%
2.2
2%
3.1
3%
3.7
3%
4.8
0%
3.4
0%
2.2
0%
3.1
0%
3.6
0%
4.2
0%
3.0
0%
2.1
0%
3.0
0%
3.6
0%
4.6
0%
2.9
0%
2.2
0%
3.0
0%
3.5
0%
4.5
0%
3.0
0%
2.1
0%
3.1
3%
3.7
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
U.S. U.K. Japan France Germany
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009
*both measured in U.S. dollars; premiums exclude cross-border business Source: Swiss Re Sigma, various volumes
From 2001 to 2003, a hard market in the U.S. added 75 basis pointsto the Penetration ratio, but a soft market in subsequent years
shaved a percentage point from the Penetration ratio.
![Page 11: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Non-life Premium/GDP* (Penetration)for Emerging Economies, 2001-2009
0.8
6%
1.5
1%
1.7
8%
0.5
6%
2.7
8%
0.9
5%
1.8
1%
1.7
4%
0.6
7%
2.8
6%
1.0
3%
2.1
3%
1.6
8%
0.6
2%
2.9
2%
1.0
5%
2.2
2%
1.6
2%
0.6
4%
2.9
5%
0.9
2%
2.1
5%
1.6
8%
0.6
1%
3.0
3%
1.0
0%
2.3
0%
1.6
0%
0.6
0%
3.0
0%
1.1
0%
2.4
0%
1.6
0%
0.6
0%
2.8
0%
1.0
0%
2.3
0%
1.6
0%
0.6
0%
2.9
0%
1.1
0%
2.5
0%
1.5
0%
0.6
0%
2.9
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
China Russia Brazil India South Africa
2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009
*both measured in U.S. dollars; premiums exclude cross-border business Source: Swiss Re Sigma, various volumes
From 2001-2009, Penetration in China and Russia grew steadily—an especially strong showing in light of the rapid growth in GDP (denominator in the Penetration ratio). Similarly, although the Penetration ratios in Brazil and India were essentially
flat, that means premium growth basically kept pace with exposure growth.
![Page 12: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Non-life Premium* per capita (Density)for Advanced Economies, 2001-2009
$1,6
64.0
$825.9
$701.1
$630.6 $
809.9
$1,7
99.0
$1,1
99.7
$714.7
$714.7 $
891.0
$1,9
80.2
$1,4
41.4
$768.0 $930.4 $
1,1
20.8
$2,0
62.6
$1,3
18.0
$830.8
$1,0
57.7 $1,2
65.3
$2,1
22.0
$1,3
11.9
$790.4
$1,0
93.9
$1,2
68.4
$2,1
34.2
$1,3
27.1
$760.4
$1,1
52.9
$1,3
00.7
$2,1
64.4
$1,3
83.2
$736.0
$1,2
19.3 $1,4
27.9
$2,1
77.4
$1,2
75.7
$829.2
$1,3
39.2 $1,5
72.7
$2,1
09.6
$1,0
51.0
$847.5
$1,2
89.4 $
1,5
39.2
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
U.S. U.K. Japan France Germany
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009
*excludes cross-border business Source: Swiss Re Sigma, various volumes
From 2001-2009, Insurance Density grew in most advanced economies,retreating only slightly during the global recession.
![Page 13: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Non-life Premium* per capita (Density) for Emerging Economies, 2001-2009
$7.8
0
$32.6
$53.2
$2.4 $
69.1
$9.5
0
$43.5
$45.0
$3.0 $
64.8
$11.2
0
$64.3
$46.8
$3.5
$107.4
$12.9 $89.6
$55.2
$4.0
$141.0
$15.8
0 $116.5
$72.1
$4.4
$156.2
$19.4
0 $146.9
$88.4
$5.2
$160.2
$25.5
$203.3
$106.9
$6.2
$159.5
$33.7
$268.1
$129.1
$6.2
$163.6
$40.0
0
$276.4
$124.0
$6.7
$161.3
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
China Russia Brazil India South Africa
2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009
* premiums measured in U.S. dollars, exclude cross-border business Source: Swiss Re Sigma, various volumes
From 2001-2009, Insurance Density in India tripled, and in China it grew 5-fold.But the most spectacular Density growth in these years belongs to Russia:
in 2009 Insurance Density in Russia was 9 times what it was in 2001!
![Page 14: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
The New World Order: A New Level of Risk for Business
Best Growth Opportunities are No Longer in Low-Risk Markets (W. Europe, US/Canada, Japan)
Growth Rates are 2-3 Times Higher in Developing World
Business investment will remain high, much of it in need of insurance
Investment conditions will remain challenging for decades
Unemployment Rates Are Much Lower in Emerging Economies
Establishment of a middle class and a wealthy upper class
Incomes Are Rising Faster in Emerging Economies
Fueling demand for goods and services
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and insurance exposure/demand
Immature Institutions Raise Risk/Possible Systemic Risks
Legal system, financial markets, regulation, infrastructure issues
Instability in Emerging Nations Will Remain High
Political instability; Corruption in some countries
Economic vulnerability (trade, xrt risk, credit risk, commodities, energy)
Natural Hazard Risks Are Often Elevated w/Minimal Mitigation
![Page 15: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Foreign Direct Investment
To Find Insurance Exposure Growth, Follow the
Foreign-Direct-Investment “Dollar”
![Page 16: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: World Bank; Insurance Information Institute.
Most non-life insurer growth will be in parts of the world whereForeign Direct Investment (FDI) is high. FDI flows are highly volatile
(so new income streams for insurers will also be volatile).
Trillions of Current US Dollars
In 2008, financial services accounted
for nearly 20% of FDI
FDI dropped by 60% in 2001-02 and
52% in 2007-09
Global Foreign Direct Investment,*Net Inflows: 1990-2010
*Foreign Direct Investment:The net inflow of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (at least 10% of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor.
![Page 17: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Following the Money Trail:Foreign Direct Investment
Source: The Economist, Nov. 13 -19, 2010
The UK’s share of FDI peaked at 45% in 1914
The US’s share of FDI peaked at 50% in 1967
China’s share of FDI stood at 6%
in 2009
![Page 18: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
UK Europe (excl. UK) U.S.
*Foreign Direct Investments are defined as the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (at least 10% of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. Outward FDI represents flow from investing country to rest of the world.Source: United Nations UNCTADSTAT; Insurance Information Institute.
European Foreign Direct Investment Abroad Was Hit Much Harder than Asia or the Americas
Millions of Current US Dollars
European FDI in the rest of the world plunged 60% during the global financial crisis. UK FDI
fell by a remarkable 79%.
Europe & U.S.: OutwardForeign Direct Investment*: 1990-2009
![Page 19: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
$26,531$24,407
$16,985$19,369
$59,374
$11,345
$17,463
$5,514
$45,726
$27,196
$44,979
$61,081
$50,581$52,269
$25,000$21,437
$17,713
$8,254
$2,825$2,448$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
China Hong Kong South Korea
*Foreign Direct Investments are defined as the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (at least 10% of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. Outward FDI represents flow from investing country to rest of the world.Source: United Nations UNCTADSTAT; Insurance Information Institute.
Despite the Crash in Foreign Direct Investment During the Global Financial Crisis, Chinese Investments Abroad Remain Near Record Levels.
Implication: Growth Opportunities for Insurers May Not Be in China but In Chinese Investment Target Nations/Companies/Industries.
Millions of Current US Dollars
Chinese foreign direct investment increased 5,600% from 2000 to 2008. The recession caused only a minor
disruption in Chinese investment abroad
China, Hong Kong, South Korea:Outward FDI: 1990-2009*
![Page 20: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
![Page 21: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Economic Threatsto the Global (Re)Insurance
Industry
At Least Eight to Monitor
![Page 22: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Near-Term Issues
Effects of the March 11 Earthquake/Tsunami/
Nuclear Reactor Accident
Lost final production
Disrupted supply chains
Lost Japanese consumption
Inflation Transmitted GloballyChina, Brazil and other countries
Soaring food and other commodity prices
Oil prices and supply reliability
Tighter monetary/fiscal policy => Slower Growth?
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
![Page 23: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Inflation Rate Forecast for Largest EuropeanEconomies & Euro Area, 2011F-2012F
1.8%2.0%
3.4%
1.6%1.9%
1.7%2.0%
2.2%1.8% 1.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Germany France UK Netherlands EuroZone
2011F
2012F
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March 2011 issue
Change from Prior Year Inflation is forecast to be around
2% across most major European economies. If so, interest rates will remain low, obscuring tight conditions in trade credit markets
![Page 24: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Inflation Rate Forecastfor Other Important Countries, 2011-12F
4.3%
7.7%
5.3%
2.2%
8.6%
3.7%
6.5%
4.8%
0.0%
2.2%
7.4%
-0.2%-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
China India Brazil Japan Canada Russia
2011F 2012F
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March 2011 issue
% Change from Prior Year
Inflation is much higher in fast-growing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRIC group). Inflation there can spread to advanced economies
because the advanced countries import significantly from the BRICs.
![Page 25: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Commodity Price Changesin 2010-2011*
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
1/1
/2010
1/1
5/2
010
1/2
9/2
010
2/1
2/2
010
2/2
6/2
010
3/1
2/2
010
3/2
6/2
010
4/9
/2010
4/2
3/2
010
5/7
/2010
5/2
1/2
010
6/4
/2010
6/1
8/2
010
7/2
/2010
7/1
6/2
010
7/3
0/2
010
8/1
3/2
010
8/2
7/2
010
9/1
0/2
010
9/2
4/2
010
10/8
/2010
10/2
2/2
010
11/5
/2010
11/1
9/2
010
12/3
/2010
12/1
7/2
010
12/3
1/2
010
1/1
4/2
011
Metals Food Raw Materials Crude Oil Gold
*data are through Jan. 20, 2011Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook January 2011 update at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/01/data/figure_2.csv
Index (Jan 1, 2010 = 100) Raw materials prices doubled over the course
of 2010. Some other commodity prices
dropped during the year but ended 20-30% higher.
![Page 26: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Longer-Term Issues
Persistently Low Interest Rates
Lower investment income, more pressure on u/w profit
Currency Market Instability
Sovereign Bond Market Concerns (Greece,
Spain, Ireland, etc.)
Strong Capital Flows to Emerging/Developing
Economies => Asset Price Bubbles?
Regulatory Backlash/Developments
Solvency II, Basel III
US Financial Services Reform
Source: Insurance Information Institute.
![Page 27: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Forecast: End-of-Year 3-Month Interest Ratesfor Major Global Economies, 2011-2012F
1.30%
0.24%
1.09%
0.20%
4.57%
5.16%
7.79%
2.18%
0.33%
2.14%
1.10%
4.78%
5.57%
7.23%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Euro Area Japan U.K. U.S. China Australia India
2011F 2012F
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March 2011 issue
Interest rates remain generally low in much of the world, depressing insurer investment
earnings. Some countries, including the U.S., are intentionally holding rates low.
Other countries are intentionally raising rates to fight inflation.
![Page 28: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
3.40%
3.60%
3.80%
4.00%
4.20%
4.40%
4.60%
2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2
U.S. Euroland U.K. Canada
Source: Wells Fargo Economics Group, Global Chartbook, March 2011
As these nations’ economies improve, and actions to keep interest rates low are ended, the yields on longer-term bonds are expected to rise. But
persistent high rates of unemployment and excess capacity, plus central bank concerns about inflation, will likely keep them from rising more than
one percentage point by mid-2012.
10-Year Bond: Yield Forecastsfor 2011:Q1-2012:Q2
![Page 29: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
30
PIGS Government Bond Spreads(2-Year Yield Spreads over German Bunds) in 2010-2011*
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/1
/20
10
1/1
5/2
01
0
1/2
9/2
01
0
2/1
2/2
01
0
2/2
6/2
01
0
3/1
2/2
01
0
3/2
6/2
01
0
4/9
/20
10
4/2
3/2
01
0
5/7
/20
10
5/2
1/2
01
0
6/4
/20
10
6/1
8/2
01
0
7/2
/20
10
7/1
6/2
01
0
7/3
0/2
01
0
8/1
3/2
01
0
8/2
7/2
01
0
9/1
0/2
01
0
9/2
4/2
01
0
10
/8/2
01
0
10
/22
/20
10
11
/5/2
01
0
11
/19
/20
10
12
/3/2
01
0
12
/17
/20
10
12
/31
/20
10
1/1
4/2
01
1
Greece Ireland Portugal Spain
*data are through Jan. 21, 2011Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook January 2011 update at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/01/data/figure_2.csv
Basis Points
For one day in 2010, it took nearly 18
percentage points more yield to lure an investor to a 2-Year
Greek bond vs. a comparable German
bond
110-billion-Euro rescue package
drove the Greece bond spread down
below 700 bp…
…but the market isn’t convinced the rescue will work
![Page 30: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Trade-Index-WeightedU.S. Dollar Exchange Rate*
*The Major Currency index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived from U.S. export shares and from U.S. and foreign import shares. Sources: US Federal Reserve, Board of Governors; Insurance Information Institute.
The global financial crisis created significant exchange-rate volatility in 2008-09 and 2010—when the world needed a “safe haven” currency.
As global stability returns, the dollar is depreciating again.
Monthly, January 2000 through February 2011
Depreciation of dollar after Tech bubble and post 9-11
Post-crisis depreciation
of dollar
Dollar appreciates as role as global “reserve
currency” affirmed during global financial crisis
Greece anxiety
![Page 31: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
32
But Exchange-Rate Changes Generally Have Little Effect on U.S. Import Prices
In theory, a change in the value of the dollar should raise or lower the cost of foreign goods, thereby reducing or increasing U.S. demand for imports.
However, numerous economic studies have shown that when the dollar fluctuates against foreign currencies, U.S. import prices tend to show much less change.
Using data for 1999 to 2008, a recent paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices for aggregate U.S. imports (all imports excluding oil and consumer goods), and for prices of imports from Japan, the European Union (EU), Canada, the NIEs, and Latin America.
The exchange rate pass-through estimates were found to be low (0.47 for all imports excluding oil and 0.26 for consumer goods) over 4 quarters.
Estimates of bilateral exchange- rate pass-through range from 0.59 for Latin America (largely Mexico) to 0.0 for the NIEs (Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong).
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission at http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/ID-21_revised.pdf.
![Page 32: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
33
Exchange Rate Indices*Daily (Jan 1, 2010 = 100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1/1
/20
10
1/1
5/2
01
0
1/2
9/2
01
0
2/1
2/2
01
0
2/2
6/2
01
0
3/1
2/2
01
0
3/2
6/2
01
0
4/9
/20
10
4/2
3/2
01
0
5/7
/20
10
5/2
1/2
01
0
6/4
/20
10
6/1
8/2
01
0
7/2
/20
10
7/1
6/2
01
0
7/3
0/2
01
0
8/1
3/2
01
0
8/2
7/2
01
0
9/1
0/2
01
0
9/2
4/2
01
0
10
/8/2
01
0
10
/22
/20
10
11
/5/2
01
0
11
/19
/20
10
12
/3/2
01
0
12
/17
/20
10
12
/31
/20
10
1/1
4/2
01
1
Euro Yen Renminbi Pound Sterling
*data are through Jan. 21, 2011Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook January 2011 update at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/01/data/figure_2.csv
Index
![Page 33: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
34
Political Risk Insurance
Covers Various Risks, Including Currency Inconvertibility,
Sovereign Non-Payment, Political Interference, Strikes, War/Riot
![Page 34: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
35
Political Risk: Insurers’ Greatest Opportunities Are Often in Risky Nations
Source: Aon
The fastest growing markets are generally
also among the politically riskiest
![Page 35: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
36
34
76
111
88
104
88
0
25
50
75
100
125
War/Civil War Exchange
Transfer
Sabotage/Riot
Terrorism/Civil
Commotion
Sovereign Non-
Payment
Legal/Regulatory
Risk
Political
Interference
(Number of countries)
Source: Aon, published January 19, 2011, accessed at http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2162
Aon: 2011 Political Risk,by Country Count
Chinese Banks’ Lending Activity Abroad Showed Little Impact from the Global Financial Crisis
Risk
![Page 36: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
37
Changes onAon’s 2011 Political Risk Map
Aon 19 downgraded countries at the start of 2011: Algeria, Benin, Comoros, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Granada, Haiti, Netherlands Antilles, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Trinidad, Myanmar, Iceland, Bahrain.
Many of these were downgraded because they rely on tourism for their prosperity and the global recession severely cut that revenue/ profit source
Aon upgraded 8 countries/territories:Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Panama, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, India
Source: Aon, published January 19, 2011, accessed at http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2162
Bottom Line: Political and financial instabilityremain a feature of the business landscape in 2011.
![Page 37: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
A.M. Best: Country Risk Evaluation*
13
9
1112
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5
Source: http://www3.ambest.com/ratings/cr/crisk.aspx
*Country risk: the risk that country-specific factors could adversely affect an insurer’s ability to meet its financial obligations. A. M. Best places countries into one of five tiers: Country Risk Tier 1 (CRT-1, a stable environment with the least amount of risk), to Country Risk Tier 5 (CRT-5, countries that pose the most risk and greatest challenge to an insurer’s financial stability, strength and performance).
Countries in CRT-5): Algeria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, Ghana,Jamaica, Kenya, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Syria, Ukraine and Vietnam.
Number of countries
Special
cases:
Gibraltar
Guernsey
Isle of Man
Small
countries:
Luxembourg
Singapore
Least risk
Special cases:Barbados
British Virgin
Islands
Cayman Islands
Liechtenstein
Macau
Small
countries:
Bermuda
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Special cases:Anguilla
Bahamas
Cyprus
Malta
Netherlands
Antilles
Oman
Trinidad and
Tobago
Special cases:Antigua and
Barbuda
Mauritius
![Page 38: The U.S. and Global Economies: Outlook and Implications ... · China India Russia Brazil Mexico 2011P 2011BC 2012P 2012BC IMF says growth in emerging and developing economies will](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050502/5f94c195c92b444ea86262e5/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
www.iii.org
Thank you for your timeand your attention!
Insurance Information Institute Online: