the us midterm elections

8/8/2019 The US Midterm Elections

1/3

European Union Institute for Security Studies1

I

SSOpinion

Union euopenne

Euopen Union

Patryk Pawlak*Novebe 2010

ThE US mIdTErm ElEcTIONS:

ImPlIcaTIONS fOr ThE TraNSaTlaNTIc agENda

* Patryk Pawlak is a post-doctoral visiting

scholar at the Center for Transatlantic Relations,

Johns Hopkins University, in Washington DC.

The nostalgia for President Obamas message ofhope, change and post-partisanship articulated duringthe 2008 presidential elections was not enough towin over the majority of Americans preoccupied withhigh unemployment rates, slow economic growth andthe countrys huge decit. The Republican Partys(GOP) win in the House of Representatives and theDemocrats slight victory in the Senate are proof ofAmericans dissatisfaction with President Obamasdomestic agenda (e.g. the health care bill, governmentpowers, unemployment, tax cuts) and suggest potentialbattlegrounds.

Contrary to the 2006 and 2008 elections, issues likethe wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were mostly absentfrom this years electoral debates. With several majorinternational events scheduled in the coming months(G-20 Summit in Seoul, NATO and EU-US Summits inLisbon, the UN Climate Change conference in Cancun),what are the implications of the mid-term electionsfor US foreign policy and transatlantic relationship inparticular? What can the EU do in order to secure the

new Congress commitment to strengthen bilateralEU-US ties?

The new Congress: confrontation orcooperation?

Although it is not unusual for the Presidents party tosuffer defeat in the midterm, this years elections werebroadly interpreted as a national referendum on theObama presidency. The opinion polls conducted on theeve of the Election Day clearly suggest that Americansare largely dissatised with the direction in which theircountry is going (75 per cent according to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, the highestsince the question was rst asked in the mid-1970s).The idea of change promoted during the presidentialcampaign in 2008 has been hijacked by Republicansand successfully adapted in their Pledge to America,putting forward such ideas as reducing spending nextyear by $100 billion, permanently extending all the taxcuts due to expire at the end of the year and repealingthe reforms to Americas health care system.

Conventional wisdom suggests that unied partycontrol is essential for securing major policy change.

However, what seems to be the most desired courseof action in Washington is not a drastic turn, but rather,more cooperation between both parties towardsbetter-balanced policy choices. According to variousopinion polls, the majority of respondents wantsCongress to cooperate even if it means compromising

(80 per cent for Bloomberg, 78 per cent for CBS andThe New York Times). Paradoxically, a constructivedialogue with Democrats may work to the advantageof Republicans who are being given an opportunity toleave behind the Bush-era and present themselvesas responsible domestic and international partners.President Obama has already declared his willingnessto build consensus with Republicans on the mostpressing issues. However, the tone will be set in therst weeks when the discussion about taxes andbudget appropriations unfolds. This will be a big testfor House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) whowill either remain an uncompromised opponent of the

President or will attempt to convince his party and teabaggers to engage in a constructive dialogue with theDemocrats.

Implications for the transatlantic agenda

There is no doubt that in light of the existing foreignpolicy and security challenges there is a need for aunied American position. The win in the midtermelections will push the Republicans to reinvent theiragenda before the 2012 presidential elections andmake them pick their ghts wisely. What foreign policy


2/3


or security issues could become a major elementin the future presidential campaign? What do theseresults mean for the future of EU-US relations? Whatmight be the inuence of the new Congress and itsdynamics on transatlantic cooperation?

First, with the executive enjoying more leverage over

foreign policy, many issues will remain under the directinuence of President Obama. With his domesticagenda in jeopardy, President Obama is very likely tobecome more active in foreign policy and will strivefor success. However, to implement his internationalobjectives he will need the support of trusted allies likethose in Europe. The EU should use this opportunityto re-state its role as a reliable partner.

Second, Congress will still be able to inuence policieswith international implications such as trade, homelandsecurity, energy and climate change. Indirectly, itmight also be able to impact some regional security

issues (Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Middle East). Thecomplexity of issues on the agenda is likely to increasethe EUs attractiveness.

How much of a real change we are going to see intransatlantic relations will also depend on Europeansthemselves and their capacity to project the addedvalue of working with the European Union. Thechanges introduced in the Treaty of Lisbon and theestablishment of the EU External Action Service willnot sufce to convince the US president and the newCongress.

The economy

Economy and jobs were the major issues in thiscampaign; hence job creation and the recovery ofeconomic growth will be the major preoccupationof the new Congress. In order to get their attention,the EU should put those issues at the centre of thetransatlantic partnership in the coming months.The institutional setting Transatlantic EconomicPartnership and Transatlantic Economic Council arealready in place but need to be reinvigorated aroundsuch issues as growth, innovation and job creation.The creation of a Transatlantic Marketplace has beenon the EU-US agenda for many years now and could

obtain some additional push from Congress. Anotherissue present in midterm elections was Chinasundervalued currency. Also here, the EUs solidarityin designing an international response will surely beappreciated.

Energy and climate change

Related to the economy is the issue of climate changeand energy supplies, where divergences between theGOP and the Obama Administration are clearly visible.Republicans perceive the currently negotiated globalclimate change standards in particular the bindingemission reduction scheme as a threat to American

jobs. Finding a common ground in the run up to theCancun climate conference remains a challenge. Even

though President Obama has the power to commit theUS to a binding international solution, he will needto rely on Congress support in its implementation.Therefore, he should engage in a constructive dialoguewith his Republican colleagues. The EU should assisthim in this endeavour, for instance through the EU-US Energy Council. By engaging with the GOP inCongress, both sides should focus on similaritiessuch as the promotion of new, clean and renewablesources of energy (nuclear, clean-coal-technology,wind and solar energy), encouraging greater efciencyand conservation or promoting cooperation in the eldof energy research. On that basis they should furtherexplore the benets that the emergence of new energyindustries and a low carbon economy may have for jobcreation while at the same time contributing to limitingthe impact on the environment.

Homeland security

The issue of homeland security re-emerged right beforethe elections when explosives were detected on cargoplanes bound for the United States and Europe. Eversince the 9/11 terrorist attacks, homeland security issueshave remained a major driving force of transatlanticcooperation. Gradually, the US Administration hasrecognised the added value of cooperating with the EUin tackling new threats to global networks and people.The EU should thus adopt a more proactive approachand bring to the transatlantic table issues of concern toboth sides: migratory pressures, visas, the ght againstterrorism and radicalisation, or the growing challengeof cyber-attacks. This should not mean, however, thatthe EU is willing to abandon its principled approach,

but rather, should further stimulate the discussionsabout developing the Transatlantic Area of HomelandSecurity based on respect for the rule of law and civilliberties.

Regional policies

On regional issues, cooperation will depend on issue-based dynamics. Republicans have expressed onnumerous occasions concerns about the commitmentof Pakistan to the ght against Al-Qaeda. Even thoughAfghanistan and Iraq were not signicant issues at thisyears elections, the reality on the ground has made it

clear that security and stability in the region are still farfrom being achieved. With the Republicans opposingthe withdrawal of the US army in July 2011 and theDemocrats shifting more to the left, Afghanistan maybecome the rst contested foreign policy issue. Goodrelationships with General Petraeus will help theRepublicans challenge the ofcial policy.

The adoption of NATOs New Strategic Concept inNovember may provide another opportunity for USinsistence on more European involvement an issueregularly raised by both parties. This may providean opportunity to look beyond the usual division oflabour rhetoric and instead constructively discuss the

future of EU-US cooperation on new challenges. Suchdialogue will be particularly important in the run up to


3/3


the Southern Sudanese independence referendum tobe held in January 2011.

The new Congress is more likely to take a tougherstance on Iran, undermining the US twin trackapproach also favoured by the EU that combinesinternational sanctions and diplomatic engagement. Inthis context, we could see some serious transatlanticdiscussions about Turkeys commitment to its Westernallies in light of her recent opposition to naming Iran asone of the targets for the ballistic missile system andthe decision of the Turkish National Security Councilto remove Iran and Syria and add Israel to the list ofcountries posing a major threat.

Russia and the Middle East Peace Process are twoareas where the Republicans may exercise an impacton foreign policy by strengthening their traditionalalliances in Central and Eastern European countriesor Israel respectively. The Obama Administrations

reset policy with Russia, which led to the adoption ofthe new START Treaty, and the more recent Europeaninitiatives, including the Franco-German proposal tocreate an economic and security space with Russiaor the Polish-Russian rapprochement may all suffer ifthe Republicans decide to feed already strong anti-Russian sentiments in some European countries.These are areas where Europe should remain rm.On the Middle East, the EU and the US agree that the

extension of the moratorium on settlements in WestBank is a vital element of peace negotiations betweenIsraeli and Palestinian leaders. This objective maybe difcult to achieve however should Israeli PrimeMinister Netanyahu anticipate the support of theRepublicans.

In sum, while Congress has its hands full withdomestic issues, it may not pay much attention to theEU. Should this be the case, the Europeans shouldextend a helping hand rather than wait to deal with theleftovers.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the EUISS

the us midterm elections

Documents