the u.s. nuclear renaissance and the challenges it … · source: nuclear energy institute updated:...
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THE U.S. NUCLEAR RENAISSANCEAND THE CHALLENGES IT PRESENTS
William E. Burchill, Ph.D.President
American Nuclear SocietyRetired Department Head
Nuclear EngineeringTexas A&M University
Slovenian Nuclear Society Ljubljana, SloveniaOctober 13, 2008
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U.S. Operating Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs)
104 Operating Reactors~20% of U.S. Electricity
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Announced Potential New NPPs
Source: NEI Manufacturing WorkshopsColumbia, SC 3/08Cleveland, OH 4/08San Antonio, TX 5/08
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U.S. Electricity Demand Growth
3,933 bkWh
5,487 bkWh
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
40% increase in demand by 2030
Source: DOE EIA’s 2008 Annual Energy OutlookUpdated: 3/08
3,814 bkWh
4,972 bkWh
1.1 % average annual growth rate
30% increase in demand by 2030
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Growth of U.S. NPP ProductionDuring Recent 15 Years (billion kWh)
Equivalent to 26 new 1,000-megawatt power plants
576.9
782.0
1990 2005*
*Source: Global Energy Decisions / DOE Energy Information AdministrationUpdated: 4/06
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U.S. Applications For License Renewal
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Updated: 7/08
49 Units Granted License Renewal
17 Units UnderNRC Review
25 Units SubmittedLetters of Intent
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- 35 new NPPs currently being built- e.g., India, 6; Russia, 5; China, 6
- Power Demand- Financial Backing- Early Site Permits
U.S. New NPPs
DOE
Vendors
NRC
InternationalActivity
Utilities
EPACT 2005
- New designs
- New Licensing Process- Regulatory Stability
Factors Which InfluenceConsideration of New U.S. NPPs
Many factors are converging NOW!
- Loan Guarantees- Production Tax Credits- Standby Support
- NP2010
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Factors Which InfluenceConsideration of New U.S. NPPs
Many factors are converging NOW!
THE BIGGEST MAY BEPUBLIC CONCERN OVER
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE
- 35 new NPPs currently being built- e.g., India, 6; Russia, 5; China, 6
- Power Demand- Financial Backing- Early Site Permits
U.S. New NPPs
DOE
Vendors
NRC
InternationalActivity
Utilities
EPACT 2005
- New designs
- Loan Guarantees- Production Tax Credits- Standby Support
- NP2010
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Announced COL Applications
Source: Nuclear Energy InstituteUpdated: 9/08
October 20072AP1000TVA (NuStart )
March 20082AP1000 Southern Company
March 20082AP1000 South Carolina Electric & Gas
February 2008/July 20084AP1000 Progress Energy
FY 20091EPRPPL Corp.
September 20072ABWR NRG Energy / STPNOC
FY 20082APWRLuminant
FY 20092TBD Florida Power & Light
September 20082ESBWR Exelon
TBDTBDTBD Exelon
February 20081ESBWREntergy (NuStart )
September 20081ESBWREntergy
TBDTBDTBD Duke
December 20072AP1000 Duke
November 20071ESBWR Dominion
FY 2008TBDTBDDetroit Edison
March 20083EPR (3) Constellation (UniStar)
July 2008TBDEPRAmerenUE
FY 2009TBDEPRAmarillo Power
FY 2009TBDEPRAlternate Energy Holdings
COL Submittal DateNumber of UnitsNPP DesignCompany
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First U.S. New NPP Ordered – April 8
Georgia Power, acting for itself and for Plant Vogtle's co-owners (Oglethorpe Power, Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia
[MEAG Power], and Dalton Utilities), entered into anEngineering, Procurement and Construction contract (EPC)
with a consortium consisting of Westinghouse Electric Company LLC and The Shaw Group Inc.'s Power Group for the
engineering, procurement and construction of two AP1000 nuclear units with electric generating capacity of approximately
1,100 megawatts each and related facilities.
Source: Georgia Power, Westinghouse, and ShawPress Releases, 4/8/08
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Second 2 U.S. New NPPs Ordered May 27
Again, 2 AP-1000 NPPsAt an existing NPP siteContract price $9.8B
Commercial operation target 2016 for 1st unit
Source: South Carolina Electric & Gas, Westinghouse,and ShawPress Releases, 5/27/08
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Summary of New U.S. NPPs• 17 companies preparing COL applications
for at least 33 reactors• 4 NPP designs certified, 4 under review• 3 early site permits issued, 6 companies
considering applications• 13 COL applications submitted
– 4 in 2007; 9 YTD in 2008– 21 reactors
• 2 ECPs signed for 4 NPPs in 2008Sources: Nuclear Energy Institute,Nuclear Regulatory CommissionUpdated: 9/08
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New NPP Licensing Applications
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission2007 Regulatory Information Conference
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Schedule Leading to New NPP Operation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
COL review
Order long-lead items
Construction
Site preparation
Arrange financing
COL Approval
Load fuel
Start-up testing (4-6 months)
Commercial operation
Pre-COL construction
General procurement
COL application
Source: NEI Manufacturing WorkshopsColumbia, SC 3/08Cleveland, OH 4/08San Antonio, TX 5/08
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The Challenges
• Long-term nuclear waste disposal− License Yucca Mtn.
• Close the nuclear fuel cycle
• Re-establish the nuclear infrastructureUtilitiesVendorsLabor
• Determine fabrication sources
• Maintain high performance standards• Address proliferation concerns• Continue to build public confidence
UniversitiesGovernmentInvestors
Nuclear WasteManagement
Infrastructure
Public andPoliticalSupport
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Examples of Infrastructure Issues• Half of U.S. university NE programs have closed• DOE funding for university NE Programs cut in FY07 & FY08• Knowledge, experience, & labor shortages
– degreed engineers - skilled labor
• Loss of manufacturing capability– N-stamp shops - heavy metal components
• DOE failure to implement 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act• Delays in applying for Yucca Mountain repository license
following 2002 approvals by Congress and President• Slow implementation of 2005 Energy Policy Act
– 4/24/06, Production tax credit– 8/4/06, Standby support coverage– 10/4/07, Clean-energy loan guarantee program
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67+
Nuclear Generation Worker[Projected] 5-Year Attrition
Potential Retirees are defined as employees that will be older than 53 with 25+ years of service, or older than 63 with 20 years of service, or older than 67 within the next five years.
Source: “NEI Work Force Report,” Nuclear Energy Institute, December, 2007
General Attrition
~6,300 or 11%
Potential Retirements
~19,600 or 35%46% Attrition plus Retirement
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Equipment & Commoditiesfor First Eight Commercial Plants
• Up to 20,000 high quality valves• Up to 2,000 high quality pumps• Over 200,000 ft quality pipe• Over 1,800 miles of cable• 4 million cubic yds of concrete• 500,000 tons of steel• 700,000 electrical components
Source: NEI Manufacturing WorkshopsColumbia, SC 3/08Cleveland, OH 4/08San Antonio, TX 5/08
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Fabrication Sources
Source: Unistar
Nozzle shellforging forU.S. EPR #1at Japan Steel Works
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High Performance Standards
Source: Nuclear Regulatory CommissionOffice for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data, 4/08
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Addressing Proliferation Concerns• Physical solutions
−Continue current barriers (guns, gates, & guards)−Reduce inventory of weapons-grade material by
fission in power reactors− Implement advanced fuel cycles
• Political solutions (proposed by GNEP)−Prohibit reprocessing facilities in additional
countries−Prohibit enrichment facilities in additional countries−Establish centralized world-oversight of all
weapons-grade material
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Physical Solutions - Barriers
Guards Gates Guns
Barriers No-Man Zones Surveillance
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U.S. Public Opinion Of Nuclear Power
Source: Bisconti Research9/08
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Public Opinion – NPP Neighbors
Source: Presentation by Mayor of Bay City Texas,Location of South Texas Project NPP
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Nuclear Waste Disposition
Short-Term On-Site Storage at NPPs
Long-Term Storage atYucca Mountain
Ultimate Options:• Fuel Reprocessing
Recycle Fissile MaterialTransmute High Level Waste Vitrify Residual Waste
• As demonstrated currently inFrance, Russia, Japanand previously in USA
Long-TermStorageYuccaMountain
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License Yucca Mountain
Address Nevada political resistance to Yucca Mountain by demonstrating support of Nevada state goals
• Synergism with gaming tax income• Boost of local employment• National leadership position• No negative impact on tourism
6/3/08 – DOE submittedlicense applicationto NRC
9/8/08 – NRC docketedapplication
Repository will open2017 ?2021 ?
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WIPP Has Operated for 8 Years
“The Salado SaltFormation (WIPP)can take as muchnuclear waste ofany type fromanywhere for thenext ten thousandyears.”
James ConcaUNM
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Close The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
•Re-establish reprocessing•Establish recycling (with or without
MOX and advanced reactors)•Define HLW forms•Establish geologic repository
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Texas A&M UniversityNuclear Engineering Research
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QUESTIONSAND DISCUSSION
THE U.S. NUCLEAR RENAISSANCEAND THE CHALLENGES IT PRESENTS
Slovenian Nuclear Society Ljubljana, SloveniaOctober 13, 2008