The Use of Models in The Use of Models in Emergency Emergency

ManagementManagement

Presented By:Presented By:Armond T. MascelliArmond T. MascelliVice President, OperationsVice President, OperationsDisaster ServicesDisaster Services

Mission of the American Red Cross

‘The American Red Cross, a humanitarian organization led by volunteers and guided by its Congressional Charter and the Fundamental Principles of the International Red Cross Movement, will provide relief to victims of disasters and help people prevent, prepare for, and respond to emergencies.’

International Red Cross Movement

I. International Committee of the Red Cross

- Geneva Conventions

II. Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

- Disaster Response

III. National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

- 180 Societies

Principles of the

International Red Cross

Movement

Humanity Assistance

Impartiality No discrimination

Neutrality Non-partisan

Independence Autonomy

Volunteer Service No gain

Unity One Society per Country

Universality Equal Status of all Societies

American Red Cross

1+ Million Volunteers & 35,000 Paid Staff Chapters – 707 Divisions – 10 Services to the Armed Forces Units – 100 Blood Regions – 35 Partnerships – Government and Non-Governmental

Organizations

Primary Lines of Service

Biomedical Services Service to the Armed Forces Health & Safety Services International Services Disaster Services

Disaster ServicesWhen Disasters Occur- Feeding, sheltering Distribution of emergency supplies One-on-one casework/assistance Health Services Mental Health Services Family Connectedness Blood and blood products Recovery and capacity building

All Red Cross Disaster Assistance is Free!

Disaster Services Business Plan Goals Goal 1: Deliver service effectively and efficiently

Reduce service delivery costs while enhancing constituent satisfaction.

Goal 2: Make chapters stronger

Align national, state, and local resources to strengthen chapter programs.

Goal 3: Partner effectively and lead the sector

Expand our role in disaster relief as a principle convener of agencies and communities nationally and locally.

Goal 4: Make the Red Cross the best place to work or volunteer

Attract and retain the highest caliber of disaster expertise.

Distributing SuppliesFlorida Tornadoes

Health ServicesNew Jersey Floods

Disaster Mental HealthNew Jersey Floods

ShelteringOhio Floods

Mobile FeedingOhio Floods

Family ConnectednessRegistration Page

PartnershipsPartnerships

Disasters are Physical, Political and Emotional Events

Disasters are complex events that require focused actions

The Term Disaster is a collective noun covering a range of

very different events

- Emergency

- Disaster

- Complex Disaster

- Catastrophic Event

Disasters are complex, dynamic events

- The limitations of training and exercises

Future repeat disasters are not the recurrence of past events

- New Disaster Agents

- Shifting risk profile (US Coastline)

- Demographics

- Major and catastrophic events

Hurricane Hugo (1989)

Hurricane Andrew (1992)

Hurricane George (1999)

Hurricane Katrina (2004)

Hurricane Rita (2007)

- 1918 Flu vs 2009 Flu Pandemic

- Ongoing linkage between risk

assessment and risk management

- The Roman God Janis

Emergency Management Models

- Prediction Models

- Process Models

The Application of Expert Systems to Emergency

Management

In Disaster Response there are

a lot of variables and they tend

to vary a lot

Prediction Models

- Agent characteristics and behavior

- Scope and magnitude

- Onset

- Impact/vulnerabilities

- Duration

Natural Disasters

Hazardous Materials

Industrial Accidents

Acts of Terrorism

Process Models

I. Simplify complex events

- Critical Elements

- Background noise

II. Better understand how an event will evolve

- Anticipate changing requirements

III. Essential for quantifying disaster events

- Performance

IV. Establish a common base for understanding

V. Useful in explaining future disasters and outcomes

to non-experts

Sequence Process ModelsBasic

- Pre-Event

- Disaster

- Post Disaster

Phases of Stages

[Prevention]

Preparedness

[Readiness]

Response

Recovery

Mitigation

Internal Function Process Models

FunctionsInitiation/mobilization

Integration

Production

Demobilization

Focus

Capability

Capacity

Decision Points

Manpower, materials, equipment, expertise, timeliness

Models & Emergency Management Tools

I. Hazardous Materials Dispersion

- Plant and Transportation accidents

- Nuclear Power Plant incidents 10 mile EPZ

II. N1H1 Pandemic

Hurricane Evacuation Models

- National Hurricane Center’s 5 movement models

- Area evacuation Models

- Behavior

- Transportation & Clearance

Models & Emergency Management Tools (Con’t)

III. Hazus

- Earthquake

- Hurricane

- Flood

IV. Homeland Security

15 Planning Scenarios

The Future

New/enhanced Disaster Agents Larger events Global urbanization Reliance on technology Media Rising expectations Just in time economy