THE UTAH ECONOMY - 2011

Presentation by James WoodBureau of Economic and Business

ResearchUniversity of UtahNovember 2011

Forecast for Utah’s Major Economic Indicators Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

Category 2010 2011 Percent Change

Nonfarm Emp. (000) 1,180.0 1,209.2 2.45%

Unemp. Rate 7.6% 8.0% NA

Total Wages (billion) $45.7 $48.1 5.3%

Average Pay $38,665 $39,581 2.4%

Net Migration (000) 1.0 3.5 NA

New Auto/Truck (000) 69.1 76.2 10.2%

Residential Units 9,300 8,700 -6.5%

Residential Value (billion) $1.7 $1.74 +2.4%

NonRes. Value (million) $925 $1,100 18.9%

Retail Sales (billion) $25.2 $26.3 4.4%

Year Over Percent Chg. in Utah’s Nonfarm Employment

% Change

Wyoming 3.03

Utah 2.45

Oregon 1.46

Washington 1.36

Montana 1.18

California 1.16

Idaho 0.92

Arizona 0.50

Colorado 0.73

New Mexico 0.43

Nevada -0.31

Employment Drivers in Utah2002-1010

Sector Increase

Health Care 37,289

Local Government 17,204

Professional, Scientific and Tech. Services. 15,045

Lodging & Food 11,071

Private Education (BYU, etc) 8,199

Nonfarm Employment in Utah

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(f)

2013

(f)

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

Beginning

Employment

Ending Employm

ent

Numeric

Change

Average Annual Growth

Rate

1950-1960 189,153 263,307 74,154 3.4%

1960-1970 263,307 357,435 94,128 3.1%

1970-1980 357,435 551,889

194,454 4.4%

1980-1990 551,889 723,629

171,740 2.7%

1990-2000 723,629 1,074,879

351,250 4.0%

2000-2010 1,074,879 1,181,337

106,458 0.95%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

UTAH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY DECADESource: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

HOUSING PROBLEM: VANISHING DEMAND

Household Growth Slows.

Larger households than expected.Deep Job Loss Due to Great Recession. Income & Job UncertaintyCredit Troubles. Credit worthiness,

foreclosures & short salesMiddle Class Struggles – occupy Utah,

gini index; state (51), metro (52), place (WVC,WJ)

Foreclosure Filings in Utah (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association)

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 22007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2011 First & Second Quarter Short Sales & REO Sales as % of Total SF Sales. Source: WFRMLS.

County

Short Sales & REO1st Qtr

% SS & REO

Short Sales & REO2nd Qtr

% SS & REO

Davis 183 36% 191 25%

Salt Lake 687 38% 793 31%

Utah 423 46% 451 40%

Weber 165 38% 153 25%

Total 1,458 40% 1,587 31%

CHANGE IN MEDIAN SALES PRICE OF EXISTING HOME

PeakValue

PeakQtr

2nd Qtr

2011

% Chg. from Peak

FHFAState (Index)

324.3 Qtr 3rd

2007

240.5 -25.8%

NARWas.Front

$246,600

3rd Qtr

2007

$199,200

-19.2%

WFRMLSSL County

$256,000

3rd Qtr

2007

$201,500

-21.3%

Change in Renters and Rental Inventory in Utah

. % ChgRenters

Additional Renters

New Apts.

1970-1980 32.0% 29,265 NA

1980-1990 42.0% 50,634 NA

1990-2000 16.6% 28,471 NA

2000-2010 30% 59,821 21,619

So. SL (2000-2010)

6.9% 340 166

MAINTAIN PERSPECTIVE

1.2 million people going to work everyday.

$95 billion in personal income.$26 billion in retail sales.40,000 increase in population.History of high growth – labor,

demographics and transportation.