the value of a draft pick
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The Value of a Draft Pick. April, 2012. What is analytics?. Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]”. What are advanced stats?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Value of a Draft Pick
April, 2012
Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge.
Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]”
What is analytics?
1. Corsi – Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession)
2. Qualcomp – how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player)
3. Qualteam – how good are the teamates a player typically lines up with
What are advanced stats?
4. PDO – a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck)
5. Zone Start – percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice
6. Predicted Goals Scored – how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)
What are advanced stats?
Pavel Datsyuk vs Henrik Sedin
Statistic Pavel Datsyuk Henrik SedinLeague Rank
Corsi 13.5 12.4 (27 v 33)
QaulComp 0.076 0.055 (22 v 50)
QualTeam -0.085 0.469 (425 v 8)
ZoneStart 48% 71% (430 v 3)
PDO 101.3 102.5
What are the options?
Advanced stats services: Coleman Analytics (Mike Smith) – player performance by game situationSports Analytics Institute – full service based on scoring chances, game situation, cost/win, etc.Blueline Analytics – player contract and value analysis
What are the options?
Advanced stats services: PUCKS – ranks players by different skillsets (skating, shooting, etc.)Decision Lens – Advanced game stats (where goals are scored from, etc.) tied to game videoPuck Prospectus – Player and team projections aimed at bettors
What are the options?
Consultants/Freelancers: Gabe Desjardins, Vic Ferrari, etc. – advanced stats experts who evaluate trades, players, etc. on a fee for service basisIn-house stats experts:Several teams employ analytics experts full-time to evaluate different aspects of their business
San Jose – have been using advanced analytics since the lockout. Dean Lombardi bragged that they built San Jose on Analytics and he would do the same in LACalgary – hired a Director of Video and Statistical Analysis from Minnesota, and the Bruins stats guru John Weisbrod this yearMontreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007
Who’s using it?
Pittsburg – subscribe to SAIBuffalo – Have analytics professionals on their payrollMontreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007Vancouver –began using analytics soon after Mike Gillis took overBoston – rumored to have a very active analytics groupTampa – starting to invest in analyticsAtlanta/Winnipeg –using analytics
Who’s using it?
Player evaluation – offensive and defensive value, playing contextTeam evaluation – tactics, tendencies, cap efficiencyPlayer negotiationTraining and preparationProcurement and projectionTactics
What can it be used for
Traditional stats…
Alex Ovechkin
Henrik Sedin
Sidney Crosby
Joe Thornton
Pavel Datsyuk
Eric Staal Brad Richards
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Points/yrplus minus
…versus Advanced Stats
Defence-Independent Save Percentage
Slap shots on Brodeur at even strength
Wrist shots on Thomas during power plays
*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers
Goalie Rankings 2011
*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers
Rank Name DIGR RawSV%
1 Tim Thomas 0.9312 0.9386
2 Cory Schneider 0.9285 0.9253
3 Roberto Luongo 0.9269 0.9275
4 Jonas Hiller 0.9269 0.9249
5 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.9234 0.9211
6 Cam Ward 0.9232 0.9221
7 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9227 0.9189
8 Devan Dubnyk 0.9224 0.9164
9 Corey Crawford 0.9219 0.9200
10 Carey Price 0.9218 0.9220
Player Value Metrics
Rank Name PTS Name +/- Name
Point Shar
e Name GVT1 Daniel Sedin 104 Zdeno Chara 33 Daniel Sedin 14.3Daniel Sedin 26.2
2Martin St. Louis 99 David Backes 32 Corey Perry 13.3Corey Perry 23.3
3 Corey Perry 98 Kevin Bieksa 32Lubomir Visnovsky 12.8Jonathan Toews 20.8
4Steven Stamkos 91 Toni Lydman 32 Steven Stamkos 12.2Martin St. Louis 20.4
5Jarome Iginla 86 Matt Carle 30 Martin St. Louis 11.3Alex Ovechkin 20.1
6Alex Ovechkin 85
Adam McQuaid 30 Alex Ovechkin 11.2Jarome Iginla 19.8
7Teemu Selanne 80
Andrej Meszaros 30 Jarome Iginla 11Ryan Kesler 19.3
8 H Zetterberg 80 Daniel Sedin 30 Henrik Sedin 10.6Lubomir Visnovsky 19.2
9Brad Richards 77 Dan Hamhuis 29
Christian Ehrhoff 10.4Anze Kopitar 18.9
10 Eric Staal 76 Nathan Horton 29 Ryan Kesler 10.4Steven Stamkos 18.8
11Claude Giroux 76
Brian Campbell 28 Alex Goligoski 10.2Henrik Sedin 18
12Jonathan Toews 76 Milan Lucic 28 Sidney Crosby 10.1Alex Tanguay 17.6
13Thomas Vanek 73 Jeff Carter 27 Shea Weber 10.1Teemu Selanne 17.6
14 Ryan Kesler 73 A. Burrows 26 Zdeno Chara 10Brad Richards 17.5
15Patrick Marleau 73 Henrik Sedin 26 Teemu Selanne 10Sidney Crosby 17.4
16 Patrick Kane 73 Anze Kopitar 25 Keith Yandle 9.9Claude Giroux 17.3
17 Anze Kopitar 73Brad Marchand 25 Kris Letang 9.8David Backes 17.1
18Loui Eriksson 73
Jonathan Toews 25 Jonathan Toews 9.8Thomas Vanek 16.8
19 Bobby Ryan 71Nicklas Backstrom 24 Dustin Byfuglien 9.6
Michael Grabner 16.8
20Patrick Sharp 71 Ryan Kesler 24 Drew Doughty 9.6Jeff Carter 16.6
Player Value Metrics
Rank Name PTS Name +/- Name
Point Shar
e Name GVT1 Daniel Sedin 104 Zdeno Chara 33 Daniel Sedin 14.3Daniel Sedin 26.2
2Martin St. Louis 99 David Backes 32 Corey Perry 13.3Corey Perry 23.3
3 Corey Perry 98 Kevin Bieksa 32Lubomir Visnovsky 12.8Jonathan Toews 20.8
4Steven Stamkos 91 Toni Lydman 32 Steven Stamkos 12.2Martin St. Louis 20.4
5Jarome Iginla 86 Matt Carle 30 Martin St. Louis 11.3Alex Ovechkin 20.1
6Alex Ovechkin 85
Adam McQuaid 30 Alex Ovechkin 11.2Jarome Iginla 19.8
7Teemu Selanne 80
Andrej Meszaros 30 Jarome Iginla 11Ryan Kesler 19.3
8 H Zetterberg 80 Daniel Sedin 30 Henrik Sedin 10.6Lubomir Visnovsky 19.2
9Brad Richards 77 Dan Hamhuis 29
Christian Ehrhoff 10.4Anze Kopitar 18.9
10 Eric Staal 76 Nathan Horton 29 Ryan Kesler 10.4Steven Stamkos 18.8
11Claude Giroux 76
Brian Campbell 28 Alex Goligoski 10.2Henrik Sedin 18
12Jonathan Toews 76 Milan Lucic 28 Sidney Crosby 10.1Alex Tanguay 17.6
13Thomas Vanek 73 Jeff Carter 27 Shea Weber 10.1Teemu Selanne 17.6
14 Ryan Kesler 73 A. Burrows 26 Zdeno Chara 10Brad Richards 17.5
15Patrick Marleau 73 Henrik Sedin 26 Teemu Selanne 10Sidney Crosby 17.4
16 Patrick Kane 73 Anze Kopitar 25 Keith Yandle 9.9Claude Giroux 17.3
17 Anze Kopitar 73Brad Marchand 25 Kris Letang 9.8David Backes 17.1
18Loui Eriksson 73
Jonathan Toews 25 Jonathan Toews 9.8Thomas Vanek 16.8
19 Bobby Ryan 71Nicklas Backstrom 24 Dustin Byfuglien 9.6
Michael Grabner 16.8
20Patrick Sharp 71 Ryan Kesler 24 Drew Doughty 9.6Jeff Carter 16.6
Player Value Metrics
Rank Name PTS Name +/- Name
Point Shar
e Name GVT1 Daniel Sedin 104 Zdeno Chara 33 Daniel Sedin 14.3Daniel Sedin 26.2
2Martin St. Louis 99 David Backes 32 Corey Perry 13.3Corey Perry 23.3
3 Corey Perry 98 Kevin Bieksa 32Lubomir Visnovsky 12.8Jonathan Toews 20.8
4Steven Stamkos 91 Toni Lydman 32 Steven Stamkos 12.2Martin St. Louis 20.4
5Jarome Iginla 86 Matt Carle 30 Martin St. Louis 11.3Alex Ovechkin 20.1
6Alex Ovechkin 85
Adam McQuaid 30 Alex Ovechkin 11.2Jarome Iginla 19.8
7Teemu Selanne 80
Andrej Meszaros 30 Jarome Iginla 11Ryan Kesler 19.3
8 H Zetterberg 80 Daniel Sedin 30 Henrik Sedin 10.6Lubomir Visnovsky 19.2
9Brad Richards 77 Dan Hamhuis 29
Christian Ehrhoff 10.4Anze Kopitar 18.9
10 Eric Staal 76 Nathan Horton 29 Ryan Kesler 10.4Steven Stamkos 18.8
11Claude Giroux 76
Brian Campbell 28 Alex Goligoski 10.2Henrik Sedin 18
12Jonathan Toews 76 Milan Lucic 28 Sidney Crosby 10.1Alex Tanguay 17.6
13Thomas Vanek 73 Jeff Carter 27 Shea Weber 10.1Teemu Selanne 17.6
14 Ryan Kesler 73 A. Burrows 26 Zdeno Chara 10Brad Richards 17.5
15Patrick Marleau 73 Henrik Sedin 26 Teemu Selanne 10Sidney Crosby 17.4
16 Patrick Kane 73 Anze Kopitar 25 Keith Yandle 9.9Claude Giroux 17.3
17 Anze Kopitar 73Brad Marchand 25 Kris Letang 9.8David Backes 17.1
18Loui Eriksson 73
Jonathan Toews 25 Jonathan Toews 9.8Thomas Vanek 16.8
19 Bobby Ryan 71Nicklas Backstrom 24 Dustin Byfuglien 9.6
Michael Grabner 16.8
20Patrick Sharp 71 Ryan Kesler 24 Drew Doughty 9.6Jeff Carter 16.6
Principals behind GVT
1. The objective of hockey is to win2. The key to winning is goal differential3. Assigning goal differential to players gives us
player value4. Approximately 6 goals in differential is worth
one win
Kovalchuk vs. Kaleta 2010
- Adds ~15 goals/yr over past three years
- Equates to ~2.5 wins- Paid ~$7.5 million- $3.5 million / win
- Draws ~ +30 penalties/yr- Equates to ~5 goals, 0.8
wins- Paid ~600K- $0.72 million / win
Let’s talk about the draft
Detroit Red Wings GVTMax GVT by round
Detroit Red Wings GVTDetroit GVT Drafting
Minnesota Wild GVTMinnesota GVT Drafting
Edmonton Oilers GVTEdmonton GVT Drafting
San Jose Sharks GVTSan Jose GVT Drafting
DET
BUF
SJS
COL
NJD
BOS
STL
EDM
PIT
PHI
NSH
PHX
CBJ
MIN
TBL
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Average GVT
Analysis of Point Share and GVTTeam Drafting Efficiency (Round 3+)
San Jose Draft GVT Distribution
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
NHL Distribution
NHL Draft GVT Distribution
Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars
San Jose Draft GVT Distribution
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
NHL Distribution San Jose
San Jose Draft GVT Distribution
Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars
Edmonton GVT Distribution
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
NHL Distribution Edmonton
Edmonton Draft GVT Distribution
Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars
Detroit GVT Distribution
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
NHL Distribution Detroit
Detroit Draft GVT Distribution
Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars
Minnesota GVT Distribution
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
NHL Distribution Minnesota
Minnesota Draft GVT Distribution
What about player origin?
Minnesota GVT DistributionAverage GVT by League
Rank League Total GVT # Of PicksAverage
GVT 90th Percentile 1 CZECH 447.2 183 2.44 10.62 SLOVAKIA 110.1 61 1.80 6.253 SWEDEN 428.4 264 1.62 5.904 RUSSIA 506.9 344 1.47 5.635 NCAA 451.1 358 1.26 4.256 FINLAND 229.5 184 1.25 4.747 QMJHL 362.2 369 0.98 3.198 WHL 545.9 630 0.87 3.389 OHL 502.7 604 0.83 2.82
10 BCHL 40.8 57 0.72 1.8411 USHS 237.7 333 0.71 1.4012 SWITZERLAND 21.6 33 0.65 0.0813 USHL 98 161 0.61 1.5014 AJHL 13.8 27 0.51 0.8415 USAN18 9.6 28 0.34 0.15
Who Should the Oilers Draft This Year?
*Max GVT in first seven years of NHL career
GVT*
Defensemen vs. Forwards