the virginia tech– usda forest service housing …...repair and remodeling’s percentage of wood...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service October 2019
Housing Commentary: Section I
Delton Alderman
Forest Products Marketing Unit
Forest Products Laboratory
U.S. Forest Service
Madison, WI
304.431.2734
2019 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University VCE-CNRE 91NP
Virginia Cooperative Extension programs and employment are open to all, regardless of age, color, disability, gender, gender identity, gender expression, national origin, political affiliation, race, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, veteran status, or any other basis protected by law. An equal opportunity/affirmative action employer. Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Virginia State University, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. Edwin J. Jones, Director, Virginia Cooperative Extension, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg; M. Ray McKinnie, Administrator, 1890 Extension Program, Virginia State University, Petersburg.
Urs Buehlmann
Department of Sustainable Biomaterials
College of Natural Resources & Environment
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA
540.231.9759
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Table of Contents Slide 3: Opening Remarks
Slide 4: Housing Scorecard
Slide 5: Wood Use in Construction
Slide 8: New Housing Starts
Slide 12: Regional Housing Starts
Slide 20: New Housing Permits
Slide 24: Regional New Housing Permits
Slide 28: Housing Under Construction
Slide 30: Regional Under Construction
Slide 35: Housing Completions
Slide 38: Regional Housing Completions
Slide 42: New Single-Family House Sales
Slide 45: Region SF House Sales & Price
Slide 53: New SF Sales-Population Ratio
Slide 62: Construction Spending
Slide 65: Construction Spending Shares
Slide 68: Remodeling
Slide 72: Existing House Sales
Slide 77: U.S. Home Ownership
Slide 85: First-Time Purchasers
Slide 88: Affordability
Slide 92: Summary
Slide 93: Virginia Tech Disclaimer
Slide 94: USDA Disclaimer
This report is a free monthly service of Virginia Tech. Past issues are available at:
http://woodproducts.sbio.vt.edu/housing-report.
To request the commentary, please email: [email protected] or [email protected]
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Opening Remarks In October, the vast majority of the United States housing construction and sales markets
were positive – month-over-month and year-over-year. The exceptions were the yearly
single-family under construction and spending data categories. New single-family house
sales and private residential construction spending recorded monthly declines. The
December 6th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model estimate for December 2019 projects an
aggregate 6.7% increase for residential investment spending. New private permanent site
expenditures were projected at an 8.0% increase; the improvement spending forecast was an
1.6% increase; and the manufactured/mobile housing projection was a 0.7% increase (all:
quarterly log change and seasonally adjusted annual rate).1
“The housing sector, for several quarters a drag on the overall economy, has become a
contributor, with residential fixed investment growing in the third quarter by a strong 5.1
percent annualized pace amid positive contributions from single-family housing
construction, home improvements, and brokers fees. We expect momentum to carry forward
with moderate growth in construction activity and sales, although housing market activity
will continue to be held back by persistent supply constraints.”2 – Economic & Strategic
Research Group, Fannie Mae.
This month’s commentary contains applicable housing data. Section I contains data and
commentary, and analysis of home ownership. Section II includes regional Federal Reserve
analysis, private indicators, and demographic commentary focusing on “aging in place”.
Sources: 1 www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx; 12/6/19; 2 https://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/forecast/monthly/economic-developments/november-2019.html; 11/18/19
Return TOC Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction; 1 FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
* All multi-family (2 to 4 + ≥ 5-units) M/M = month-over-month; Y/Y = year-over-year; NC = no change
October 2019 Housing Scorecard
M/M Y/Y
Housing Starts ▲ 3.8% ▲ 8.5%
Single-Family (SF) Starts ▲ 2.0% ▲ 8.2%
Multi-Family (MF) Starts* ▲ 8.6% ▲ 9.2%
Housing Permits ▲ 5.0% ▲ 14.1%
SF Permits ▲ 3.2% ▲ 7.4%
MF Permits* ▲ 8.2% ▲ 26.9%
Housing Under Construction ▲ 0.1% ▲ 2.1%
SF Under Construction ▲ 0.6% ▼ 0.2%
Housing Completions ▲ 10.3% ▲ 12.4%
SF Completions ▲ 4.5% ▲ 8.6%
New SF House Sales ▼ 0.7% ▲ 31.6%
Private Residential Construction Spending ▼ 0.9% ▲ 0.5%
SF Construction Spending ▲ 1.6% ▼ 3.1%
Existing House Sales1 ▲ 1.9% ▲ 4.6%
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New Construction’s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption
Source: USDA Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever. 2017. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2013 -2017
21%
32%
47%
Non-structural panels Total Sawnwood Structural panels
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New SF Construction Percentage of Wood Products Consumption
14%
86%
Non-structural panels:
New Housing
Other markets
25%
75%
All Sawnwood: New housing
Other markets
40% 60%
Structural panels:
New housing
Other markets
Source: USDA Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever. 2017. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2013 -2017
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Repair and Remodeling’s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption
14%
86%
Non-structural panels:
Remodeling
Other markets
23%
77%
All Sawnwood: Remodeling
Other markets
21%
79%
Structural panels: Remodeling
Other markets
Source: USDA Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever. 2017. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2013 -2017
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New Housing Starts
* All start data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
** US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation
((Total starts – (SF + 5 unit MF)).
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
Total Starts* SF Starts MF 2-4 Starts** MF ≥5 Starts
October 1,314,000 936,000 16,000 362,000
September 1,266,000 918,000 9,000 339,000
2018 1,211,000 865,000 19,000 327,000
M/M change 3.8% 2.0% 77.8% 6.8%
Y/Y change 8.5% 8.2% -15.8% 10.7%
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Total Housing Starts
* Percentage of total starts.
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation: ((Total starts – (SF + ≥ MF)).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
SF Starts 2-4 MF Starts ≥5 MF Starts
Total starts 58-year average: 1,439 m units
SF starts 58-year average: 1,022 m units MF starts 53-year average: 420 m units
SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands
Total SF 936,000 71.2%
Total 2-4 MF 16,000 1.2%
Total ≥ 5 MF 362,000 27.5%
Total Starts*
1,314,000
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New SF Starts
Sources: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdff and The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; 11/19/19
New SF starts adjusted for the US population
From October 1959 to October 2007, the long-term ratio of new SF starts to the total US non-institutionalized
population was 0.0066; in October 2019 it was 0.0036 – a slight increase from September (0.0035). The long-
term ratio of non-institutionalized population, aged 20 to 54 is 0.0103; in October 2019 was 0.0064 – also an
increase from September (0.0062). From a population worldview, new SF construction is less than what is
necessary for changes in population (i.e., under-building).
0.0000
0.0020
0.0040
0.0060
0.0080
0.0100
0.0120
0.0140
0.0160
0.0180
0.0200
Ratio: SF Housing Starts/Civilian Noninstitutional Population
Ratio: SF Housing Starts/Civilian Noninstitutional Population (20-54)
20 to 54 population/SF starts: 1/1/59 to 7/1/07 ratio: 0.0103
20 to 54 year old classification: 10/19 ratio: 0.0064
Total: 10/19 ratio: 0.0036 Total non-institutionalized/Start ratio: 1/1/59 to 7/1/07: 0.0066
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Total Housing Starts: Six-Month Average
1,314
1,276
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
Total Starts: (monthly) Total Starts: 6-month Ave.
SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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SF Housing Starts: Six-Month Average
936
885
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
SF Starts: (monthly) SF Starts: 6-month Ave.
SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Starts by Region
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – (SF + ≥ 5 MF starts).
* Percentage of total starts.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Total NE Starts Total MW Starts Total S Starts Total W Starts
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 89,000 6.8%
Total MW 175,000 13.3%
Total S 689,000 52.4%
Total W 361,000 27.5%
Total Regional Starts*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Starts by Region
All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest.
** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).
NE Total NE SF NE MF**
October 89,000 41,000 48,000
September 114,000 61,000 53,000
2018 90,000 72,000 18,000
M/M change -21.9% -32.8% -9.4%
Y/Y change -1.1% -43.1% 166.7%
MW Total MW SF MW MF
October 175,000 120,000 55,000
September 161,000 119,000 42,000
2018 187,000 122,000 65,000
M/M change 8.7% 0.8% 31.0%
Y/Y change -6.4% -1.6% -15.4%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Starts by Region
All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West.
** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).
S Total S SF S MF**
October 689,000 541,000 148,000
September 684,000 524,000 160,000
2017 596,000 430,000 166,000
M/M change 0.7% 3.2% -7.5%
Y/Y change 15.6% 25.8% -10.8%
W Total W SF W MF
October 361,000 234,000 127,000
September 307,000 214,000 93,000
2018 338,000 241,000 97,000
M/M change 17.6% 9.3% 36.6%
Y/Y change 6.8% -2.9% 30.9%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total SF Housing Starts by Region
* Percentage of total starts.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – (SF + ≥ 5 MF starts).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
NE SF Starts MW SF Starts S SF Starts W SF Starts
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 41,000 3.1%
Total MW 120,000 9.1%
Total S 541,000 41.2%
Total W 234,000 17.8%
Total SF Starts by Region*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Nominal & SAAR SF Starts
Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Starts
Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF start data contrasted against SAAR data.
The apparent expansion factor “… is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses started in the US to the
seasonally adjusted number of houses started in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted values for
the four regions).” – U.S. DOC-Construction
815
877
824
834 791860
839 878831
888948
847
886 900 882
892
937
854
860
889 880865
804
814
966
792
833 862
814
864
871
909
918 936
15.3 1…11.910.8 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.5 11.7 13.7
15.414.8
14.4 12.2 10.5 10.6 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.711.5
13.715.5
15.114.512.0 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.2 11.5 11.8
53
59
70
77 77
84 7978
73 76
69
5560
62
73
85
89
84
82 81 75 75
59
53
64
55
70
82
78
83 8481
80 79
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
New SF Starts (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF Starts (non-adj)
LHS: SAAR; in thousands RHS: Non-adjusted; in thousands
October 2018 and October 2019
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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MF Housing Starts by Region
* Percentage of total starts.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – (SF + ≥ 5 MF starts).
0
50
100
150
200
250
NE MF Starts MW MF Starts S MF Starts W MF Starts
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 48,000 3.7%
Total MW 55,000 4.2%
Total S 148,000 11.3%
Total W 127,000 9.7%
Total MF Starts by Region*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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SF vs. MF Housing Starts (%)
78.5%
71.2%
21.5% 28.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Single-Family Starts: % Multi-Family Starts: %
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Permits
* All permit data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
Total
Permits*
SF
Permits
MF 2-4 unit
Permits
MF ≥ 5 unit
Permits
October 1,461,000 909,000 47,000 505,000
September 1,391,000 881,000 34,000 476,000
2018 1,281,000 846,000 39,000 396,000
M/M change 5.0% 3.2% 38.2% 6.1%
Y/Y change 14.1% 7.4% 20.5% 27.5%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total New Housing Permits
* Percentage of total permits.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits ≥5 MF Permits
SAAR; in thousands
Total SF 909,000 62.2%
Total 2-4 MF 47,000 3.2%
Total ≥ 5 MF 505,000 34.6%
Total Permits*
1,461,000
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Nominal & SAAR SF Permits
Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Permits
Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF start data contrasted against SAAR data.
The apparent expansion factor “…is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses started in the US to the
seasonally adjusted number of houses started in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted values for
the four regions).” – U.S. DOC-Construction
806
834
826
796 784
813
817 803
831
854864
877
870
886851
863 843
853
871
829858
846
843
827
821
814 813
786
810
823 829
875
881 909
14.5 15.6 14.310.3 11.310.4 10.011.6 10.8 12.812.2 14.1
15.4 14.3 13.7 11.4 10.710.1 10.6 10.6 10.9 13.0 11.4 13.6 15.4 14.0 14.2 11.4 10.7 10.211.0 11.2 11.1 12.9
54
58
77
69
7882
69
77
6771 62
57
62
62
76
79
8482
78 79
65
74
61
53
58
57
69
76
81
75
78 79
71
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
New SF Permits (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF Permits (non-adj)
October 2018 and October 2019
LHS: SAAR; in thousands RHS: Non-adjusted; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Permits by Region
NE = Northeast; ME = Midwest
* All data are SAAR
** US DOC does not report multifamily permits directly, this is an estimation (Total permits – SF permits).
NE Total* NE SF NE MF**
October 141,000 49,000 92,000
September 118,000 46,000 72,000
2018 129,000 61,000 68,000
M/M change 19.5% 6.5% 27.8%
Y/Y change 9.3% -19.7% 35.3%
MW Total* MW SF MW MF**
October 176,000 119,000 57,000
September 173,000 124,000 49,000
2018 187,000 114,000 73,000
M/M change 1.7% -4.0% 16.3%
Y/Y change -5.9% 4.4% -21.9%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Permits by Region
S = South; W = West
* All data are SAAR
** US DOC does not report multifamily permits directly, this is an estimation (Total permits – SF permits).
S Total* S SF S MF**
October 776,000 521,000 255,000
September 735,000 507,000 228,000
2018 644,000 468,000 176,000
M/M change 5.6% 2.8% 11.8%
Y/Y change 20.5% 11.3% 44.9%
W Total* W SF W MF**
October 368,000 220,000 148,000
September 365,000 204,000 161,000
2018 321,000 203,000 118,000
M/M change 0.8% 7.8% -8.1%
Y/Y change 14.6% 8.4% 25.4%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total Housing Permits by Region
* Percentage of total permits.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits ≥5 MF Permits
SAAR; in thousands
Total SF 909,000 62.2%
Total 2-4 MF 47,000 3.2%
Total ≥ 5 MF 505,000 34.6%
Total Permits*
1,461,000
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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SF Housing Permits by Region
* Percentage of total permits.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 141,000 9.7%
Total MW 176,000 12.0%
Total S 776,000 53.1%
Total W 368,000 25.2%
Total Regional Permits*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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MF Housing Permits by Region
* Percentage of total permits.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
NE MF Permits MW MF Permits S MF Permits W MF Permits
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 92,000 6.3%
Total MW 57,000 3.9%
Total S 255,000 17.5%
Total W 148,000 10.1%
Total MF Permits*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Under Construction (HUC)
All housing under construction data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
** US DOC does not report 2-4 multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation
((Total under construction – (SF + 5 unit MF)).
Total Under
Construction*
SF Under
Construction
MF 2-4 unit**
Under
Construction
MF ≥ 5 unit Under
Construction
October 1,161,000 527,000 11,000 623,000
September 1,160,000 524,000 11,000 625,000
2018 1,137,000 528,000 13,000 596,000
M/M change 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% -0.3%
Y/Y change 2.1% -0.2% -15.4% 4.5%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total Housing Under Construction
* Percentage of total housing under construction units.
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family under construction directly, this is an estimation (Total under constructions – (SF + ≥ 5 MF under
construction).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
SF HUC 2-4 MF HUC ≥5 MF HUC
Total SF 527,000 45.4%
Total 2-4 MF 11,000 0.9%
Total ≥ 5 MF 623,000 53.7%
Total HUC*
1,161,000
SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Under Construction by Region
All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest.
** US DOC does not report multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation
(Total under construction – SF under construction).
NE Total NE SF NE MF**
October 178,000 57,000 121,000
September 179,000 58,000 121,000
2018 187,000 61,000 126,000
M/M change -0.6% -1.7% 0.0%
Y/Y change -4.8% -6.6% -4.0%
MW Total MW SF MW MF
October 147,000 77,000 70,000
September 147,000 77,000 70,000
2018 152,000 80,000 72,000
M/M change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Y/Y change -3.3% -3.8% -2.8%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Under Construction by Region
All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West.
** US DOC does not report multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation
(Total under construction – SF under construction).
S Total S SF S MF**
October 503,000 253,000 250,000
September 503,000 250,000 253,000
2018 458,000 242,000 216,000
M/M change 0.0% 1.2% -1.2%
Y/Y change 9.8% 4.5% 15.7%
W Total W SF W MF
October 333,000 140,000 193,000
September 331,000 139,000 192,000
2018 340,000 145,000 195,000
M/M change 0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Y/Y change -2.1% -3.4% -1.0%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total Housing Under Construction by Region
* Percentage of total housing under construction units.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family under construction directly, this is an estimation (Total under constructions – (SF + ≥ 5 MF under
construction).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NE HUC MW HUC S HUC W HUC
Total NE 178,000 15.3%
Total MW 147,000 15.3%
Total S 503,000 43.3%
Total W 333,000 28.7%
Total Regional HUC*SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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SF Housing Under Construction by Region
* Percentage of total housing under construction units.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West.
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family under construction directly, this is an estimation (Total under constructions – (SF + ≥ 5 MF under
construction).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
NE SF HUC MW SF HUC S SF HUC W SF HUC
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 57,000 4.9%
Total MW 77,000 6.6%
Total S 253,000 21.8%
Total W 140,000 12.1%
Total SF HUC*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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MF Housing Under Construction by Region
* Percentage of total housing under construction units.
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family under construction directly, this is an estimation (Total under constructions – (SF + ≥ 5 MF under
construction).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
NE MF HUC MW MF HUC S MF HUC W MF HUC
SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
Total NE 121,000 10.4%
Total MW 70,000 6.0%
Total S 250,000 21.5%
Total W 193,000 16.6%
Total MF HUC*
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New Housing Completions
* All completion data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation ((Total completions – (SF + ≥ 5 unit MF)).
Total
Completions*
SF
Completions
MF 2-4 unit**
Completions
MF ≥ 5 unit
Completions
October 1,256,000 897,000 5,000 354,000
September 1,139,000 858,000 3,000 278,000
2018 1,117,000 826,000 9,000 282,000
M/M change 10.3% 4.5% 66.7% 27.3%
Y/Y change 12.4% 8.6% -44.4% 25.5%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total Housing Completions
* Percentage of total housing completions
** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation ((Total completions – (SF + ≥ 5 unit MF)).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Total SF Completions Total 2-4 MF Completions Total ≥ 5 MF Completions
SAAR; in thousands
Total SF 897,000 71.4%
Total 2-4 MF 5,000 0.4%
Total ≥ 5 MF 354,000 28.2%
Total Completions*
1,256,000
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Housing Completions by Region
All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest.
** US DOC does not report multifamily units completions directly, this is an estimation
(Total completions – SF completions).
NE Total NE SF NE MF**
October 121,000 57,000 64,000
September 104,000 65,000 39,000
2018 92,000 55,000 37,000
M/M change 16.3% -12.3% 64.1%
Y/Y change 31.5% 3.6% 73.0%
MW Total MW SF MW MF
October 153,000 111,000 42,000
September 148,000 110,000 38,000
2018 179,000 125,000 54,000
M/M change 3.4% 0.9% 10.5%
Y/Y change -14.5% -11.2% -22.2%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West.
** US DOC does not report multifamily units completions directly, this is an estimation
(Total completions – SF completions).
New Housing Completions by Region
S Total S SF S MF**
October 621,000 499,000 122,000
September 600,000 487,000 113,000
2018 546,000 423,000 123,000
M/M change 3.5% 2.5% 8.0%
Y/Y change 13.7% 18.0% -0.8%
W Total W SF W MF
October 361,000 230,000 131,000
September 287,000 196,000 91,000
2018 300,000 223,000 77,000
M/M change 25.8% 17.3% 44.0%
Y/Y change 20.3% 3.1% 70.1%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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Total Housing Completions by Region
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).
* Percentage of total housing completions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
NE Completions MW Completions S Completions W Completions
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 121,000 9.6%
Total MW 153,000 12.2%
Total S 621,000 49.4%
Total W 361,000 28.7%
Total Regional Completions*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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SF Housing Completions by Region
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).
* Percentage of total housing completions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
NE SF Completions MW SF Completions S Completions W SF Completions
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 57,000 4.5%
Total MW 111,000 8.8%
Total S 499,000 39.7%
Total W 230,000 18.3%
Total SF Completions*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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MF Housing Completions by Region
NE = Northeast, MW = Midwest, S = South, W = West
US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).
* Percentage of total housing completions
0
50
100
150
200
250
NE MF Completions MW MF Completions S MF Completions W MF Completions
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 64,000 5.1%
Total MW 42,000 3.3%
Total S 122,000 9.7%
Total W 131,000 10.4%
Total MF Completions*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/19/19
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New Single-Family House Sales
* All new sales data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)1 and housing prices are adjusted at irregular intervals2.
Sources: 1 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 11/26/19; 2 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf 3 http://us.econoday.com/; 11/26/19
New SF sales were greater than the consensus forecast3 of 707 m (range: 694 m to 720 m).
The past three month’s new SF sales data also were revised:
July initial: 635 m revised to 660 m;
August initial: 713 m revised to 706 m;
September initial: 701 m revised to 738 m.
New SF
Sales*
Median
Price
Mean
Price
Month's
Supply
October 733,000 $316,700 $383,300 5.3
September 738,000 $310,200 $366,900 5.2
2018 557,000 $328,300 $394,900 7.2
M/M change -0.7% 2.1% 4.5% 1.9%
Y/Y change 31.6% -3.5% -2.9% -26.4%
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New SF House Sales
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Total New SF Sales
1963-2000 average: 633,895 units
October 2019: 733,000 1963-2016 average: 650,963 units
SAAR; in thousands
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New SF Housing Sales: Six-month average & monthly
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
683
733
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Six-month SF Sales Average New SF Sales (monthly)
SAAR; in thousands
Return TOC
New SF House Sales by Region and Price Category
NE = Northeast; MW = Midwest; S = South; W = West 1 All data are SAAR 2 Houses for which sales price were not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was report ed; 3 Detail October not add to total because of rounding. 4 Housing prices are adjusted at irregular intervals. 5 Z = Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent
Sources: 1,2,3 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 11/26/19; 4https://www.census.gov/construction/cpi/pdf/descpi_sold.pdf
NE MW S W
October 27,000 75,000 436,000 195,000
September 33,000 72,000 451,000 182,000
2018 23,000 64,000 310,000 160,000
M/M change -18.2% 4.2% -3.3% 7.1%
Y/Y change 17.4% 17.2% 40.6% 21.9%
≤ $150m
$150 -
$199.9m
$200 -
299.9m
$300 -
$399.9m
$400 -
$499.9m
$500 -
$749.9m ≥ $750m
October1,2,3,4 1,000 4,000 20,000 14,000 7,000 7,000 4,000
September 1,000 5,000 20,000 16,000 6,000 6,000 2,000
2018 2,000 2,000 14,000 11,000 6,000 5,000 2,000
M/M change 0.0% -20.0% 0.0% -12.5% 16.7% 16.7% 100.0%
Y/Y change -50.0% 100.0% 42.9% 27.3% 16.7% 40.0% 100.0%
New SF sales: % 1.8% 7.0% 35.1% 24.6% 12.3% 12.3% 7.0%
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New SF House Sales
• Total new sales by price category and percent.
1,000
4,000
20,000
14,000
7,000
7,000
4,000
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
≤ $150m
$150-$199.9m
$200-299.9m
$300-$399.9m
$400-$499.9m
$500-$749.9m
≥ $750m
October New SF Sales*
≤ $150m 1.8%
$150-199.9m 7.0%
$200-299.9m 35.1%
$300-$399.9m 24.6%
$400-$499.9m 12.3%
$500-$749.9m 12.3%
≥ $750m 7.0%
New SF Sales: %
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF House Sales by Region
NE = Northeast; MW = Midwest; S = South; W = West
* Percentage of total new sales.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S SF Sales W SF Sales
Total NE 27,000 3.7%
Total MW 75,000 10.2%
Total S 436,000 59.5%
Total W 195,000 26.6%
Total SF Sales*
SAAR; in thousands
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF House Sales by Price Category
* Sales tallied by price category. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
< $150
$150-199.9
$200-299.9
$300-$399.9
$400-$499.9
$500-$749.9
> $750
2018 Total New SF Sales*: 617 m units
2002-2018; in thousands, and thousands of dollars; SAAR
Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 3/25/19
Return TOC
New SF House Sales
New SF Sales
$400m houses: 2002 – October 2019
The sales share of $400 thousand plus SF houses is presented above1, 2. Since the beginning of 2012, the
upper priced houses have and are garnering a greater percentage of sales. A decreasing spread indicates
that more high-end luxury homes are being sold. Several reasons are offered by industry analysts; 1)
builders can realize a profit on higher priced houses; 2) historically low interest rates have indirectly
resulted in increasing house prices; and 3) purchasers of upper end houses fared better financially coming
out of the Great Recession.
Source: 1 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 2 https://www.census.gov/construction/cpi/pdf/descpi_sold.pdf 11/26/19
92.4%
68.4%
7.6%
31.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
% of Sales: ≤ $400m % of Sales: ≥ $400m
Return TOC
New SF House Sales
New SF Sales: ≤ $ 200m and ≥ $500m: 2002 to October 2019
The number of ≤ $200 thousand plus SF houses has declined dramatically since 2002 1, 2. Subsequently,
from 2012 onward, the ≥ $500 thousand class has soared (on a percentage basis) in contrast to the
≤ $200m class. One of the most oft mentioned reasons for this occurrence is builder net margins.
Note: Sales values are not adjusted for inflation.
Source: 1 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 2 https://www.census.gov/construction/cpi/pdf/descpi_sold.pdf 11/26/19
92.5%
31.3%
7.5%
68.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
< $199.999m (%) > $500m (%)
Return TOC
Total New SF House Sales by Square Feet of Floor Area
Total new SF Sales: ≤ 1,400 square feet and ≥ 4,000 square feet: 1999 to 2018
The number of SF houses sold (≥ 4,000 sq ft) has risen dramatically since 2010 in comparison to the ≤
1,400 sq ft houses.. Some of the most oft mentioned reasons for this is builder net margins and regulation.
119
21
143
167
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
≤ 1,400 sq ft ≥ 4,000 sq ft
in thousands of units; SAAR
Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 8/23/19
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New Detached SF House Sales by Square Feet of Floor Area
New Detached SF Sales: ≤ 1,400 square feet and ≥ 4,000 square feet: 1999 to 2018
93
18
140
160
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
≤ 1,400 sq ft ≥ 4,000 sq ft
in thousands of units; SAAR
Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html; 8/23/19
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New SF House Sales
New SF sales adjusted for the US population
From October 1963 to October 2007, the long-term ratio of new house sales to the total US non-
institutionalized population was 0.0039; in October 2019 it was 0.0028 – no change from September. The
non-institutionalized population, aged 20 to 54 long-term ratio is 0.0062; in October 2019 it was 0.0050 – also
no change from September. All are non-adjusted data. From a population viewpoint, construction is less than
what is necessary for changes in the population (i.e., under-building).
Sources: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html and The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; 11/26/19
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.010
0.011
Ratio of New SF Sales/Civilian Noninstitutional Population Ratio of New SF Sales/Civilian Noninstitutional Population (20-54)
Total US non-institutionalized population/new SF sales: 1/1/63 to 12/31/07 ratio: 0.0039
All new SF sales: 10/19 ratio: 0.0028
20 to 54 year old population/New SF sales: 1/1/63 to 12/31/07 ratio: 0.0062 20 to 54: 10/19 ratio: 0.0050
Return TOC
Nominal vs. SAAR New SF House Sales
Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Sales
Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF sales data contrasted against SAAR data.
The apparent expansion factor “…is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses sold in the US to the
seasonally adjusted number of houses sold in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted values for
the four regions).” – U.S. DOC-Construction
599615
638
590 606619
564
559
639
616
711
653633
663672
629650
618609
604
607
557
615633 607
669
693656
598
729
660
706 738 733
13.912.110.5 10.5 10.6 11.111.812.4 12.8 12.6 14.2 14.5 13.2
12.310.210.3 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.9 13.213.0 14.014.8 13.111.7
10.2 10.3 10.711.0 12.012.612.9 12.9
43
51
61
56 5756
48
45
5049
50
45
48
54
66
61 62
56
52
47
46
43
44
38
49
57
6864
56
66
55
56
57
57
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
New SF sales (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF sales (non-adj)
0
Contrast of October 2018 and
October 2019
Nominal & SF data, in thousands RHS: New SF SAAR LHS: Nominal & Expansion Factors
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF House Sales
Not SAAR
Total
Not
started
Under
Construction Completed
October 733,000 250,000 237,000 246,000
September 738,000 220,000 248,000 270,000
2018 557,000 151,000 216,000 190,000
M/M change -0.7% 13.6% -4.4% -8.9%
Y/Y change 31.6% 65.6% 9.7% 29.5%
Total percentage 34.1% 32.3% 33.6%
New SF Houses Sold During Period
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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Not SAAR
New SF House Sales: Sold During Period
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Not started Under Construction Completed
Thousands of units; not SAAR
Total
Not
started
Under
Construction Completed
733,000 250,000 237,000 246,000
New SF Houses Sold During Period
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF House Sales: For Sale at End of Period
Not SAAR
Total
Not
started
Under
Construction Completed
October 322,000 56,000 189,000 77,000
September 321,000 53,000 191,000 77,000
2018 333,000 58,000 201,000 74,000
M/M change 0.3% 5.7% -1.0% 0.0%
Y/Y change -3.3% -3.4% -6.0% 4.1%
Total percentage 17.4% 58.7% 23.9%
New SF Houses for Sale at the end of the Period
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF Houses for Sale at End of Period
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Not started Under construction Completed
Total
Not
started
Under
Construction Completed
322,000 56,000 189,000 77,000
New SF Houses for Sale at the end of the Period
Thousands of units; not SAAR
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF House Sales
Not SAAR
Total NE MW S W
October 327,000 29,000 39,000 170,000 88,000
September 326,000 28,000 37,000 173,000 88,000
2018 335,000 27,000 42,000 177,000 89,000
M/M change 0.3% 3.6% 5.4% -1.7% 0.0%
Y/Y change -2.4% 7.4% -7.1% -4.0% -1.1%
New SF Houses for Sale at the end of the Period by Region*
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF Houses Sale at End of Period by Region
NE = Northeast; MW = Midwest; S = South; W = West
* Percentage of new SF sales.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
NE MW S W
Thousands of units; not SAAR
Northeast 29,000 8.9%
Midwest 39,000 11.9%
South 170,000 52.0%
West 88,000 26.9%
For sale at end of period*
327,000
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 11/26/19
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New SF Housing
Source: https://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/housings-newest-leading-indicator-new-home-pending-sales-index-reveals-mojo-in-top-10-and-national-markets_o/; 12/2/19
Meyers Research New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) for October 2019
“The New Home PSI, backed by data from Zonda and Metrostudy, shows pending sales increased both
year-over-year and month-over-month across the United States. The index is a leading residential real
estate indicator based on the number of new home sales contracts signed across the country. The New
Home PSI came in at 119.0 for October, representing a 14.5% increase from October 2018. On a month-
over-month basis, new home sales increased by 0.2% between September and October 2019.
The US housing market regained momentum this year after a tough close to 2018. October’s new home
sales capture stronger demand as lower mortgage rates, softer home price appreciation, and positive wage
trends favor buyers.” – Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research, Meyers Research
Return TOC
October 2019 Construction Spending
* billion. ** The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is a monthly estimation:
((Total Private Spending – (SF spending + MF spending)).
All data are SAARs and reported in nominal US$.
Total Private
Residential* SF MF Improvement**
October $508,198 $279,080 $59,466 $169,652
September $512,634 $274,596 $60,403 $177,635
2018 $505,566 $287,992 $60,768 $156,806
M/M change -0.9% 1.6% -1.6% -4.5%
Y/Y change 0.5% -3.1% -2.1% 8.2%
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 12/2/19
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Total Construction Spending (nominal): 1993 – October 2019
Reported in nominal US$.
The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is a monthly estimation for 2019.
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 12/2/19
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Total Residential Spending (nominal) SF Spending (nominal)
MF Spending (nominal) Remodeling Spending (nominal)
Total Private Nominal Construction Spending: $508.198 bil
SAAR; in millions
Return TOC
Total Construction Spending (adjusted): 1993-2019*
Reported in adjusted US$: 1993 – 2018 (adjusted for inflation, BEA Table 1.1.9); *January to October 2019 reported in nominal US$.
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Total Residential Spending (adj.) SF Spending (adj.) MF Spending (adj.) Remodeling Spending (adj.)
SAAR; in millions of US dollars (adj.)
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 12/2/19
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Construction Spending Shares:
1993 to October 2019
Total Residential Spending: 1993 through 2006
SF spending average: 69.2%
MF spending average: 7.5 %
Residential remodeling (RR) spending average: 23.3 % (SAAR).
Note: 1993 to 2017 (adjusted for inflation, BEA Table 1.1.9); Jan-October 2018 reported in nominal US$.
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf and http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm; 12/2/19
67.3
54.9
5.2
11.7
27.5
33.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
SF, MF, & RR: Percent of Total Residential Spending (adj.)
SF % MF % RR %
percent
Return TOC
Adjusted Construction Spending: Y/Y Percentage Change,
1993 to October 2019
Nominal Residential Construction Spending:
Y/Y percentage change, 1993 to October 2019
Presented above is the percentage change of inflation adjusted Y/Y construction spending. RR
expenditures were positive on a percentage basis, year-over-year (2019 data reported in nominal dollars).
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
SF Spending-nom.: Y/Y % change MF Spending-nom.: Y/Y % change Remodeling Spending-nom.: Y/Y % change
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 12/2/19
Return TOC
Total Adjusted Construction Spending: Y/Y Percentage Change,
1993 to October 2019
Inflation Adjusted Residential Construction Spending:
Y/Y percentage change, 1993 to October 2019
Total and RR expenditures were positive in October, all others were negative; 2019 data reported in
nominal dollars.
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Total Residential Spending Y/Y % change (adj.) SF Spending Y/Y % change (adj.)
MF Spending Y/Y % change (adj.) Remodeling Spending Y/Y % change (adj.)
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 12/2/19
Return TOC
Remodeling
Source: https://www.remodeling.hw.net/benchmarks/economic-outlook-rri/rri-positive-but-projects-smaller-growth-in-next-two-years_o/; 11/22/19
Remodeling
RRI Positive, But Projects Smaller Growth in Next Two Years
Annual growth rates in the remodeling industry have cooled significantly compared with the 5% growth averaged the past several years.
“Big-ticket remodeling spending increased 2.8% year over year (YOY) in the third quarter
of 2019 and 0.5% from the second quarter, Metrostudy/Zonda announced in its release of the
latest Residential Remodeling Index (RRI). The index climbed to a new high of 118.9,
meaning economic conditions known to influence remodeling activity are 18.9% better than
the old peak in 2007.
While the positive growth in the RRI marks the 30th consecutive quarter of YOY gains since
remodeling activity bottomed in 2011, growth is coming at increasingly smaller rates.
Annual rates have cooled significantly compared with the 5% growth that the industry
averaged the past several years.
Metrostudy/Zonda calls for continued gains over the next few years, but at a slower rate than
the industry has become accustomed to. The RRI is projected to average YOY gains of
2.2% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021. The projected gains for 2020 are marginally higher than
projections from the second quarter RRI.
The strength of the consumer is continuing to support the economy as business investment
and manufacturing are being constrained by a near 16-month-long trade war with China,
according to Metrostudy/Zonda chief economist Mark Boud.” – Vincent Salandro, Assistant
Editor, Remodeling and ProSales
Return TOC
Remodeling
Source: https://www.remodeling.hw.net/benchmarks/economic-outlook-rri/rri-positive-but-projects-smaller-growth-in-next-two-years_o/; 11/27/19
Remodeling
RRI Positive, But Projects Smaller Growth in Next Two Years
““Even if a trade agreement with China is reached, slower employment growth is projected
over the next few years as the economic cycle wanes. In addition, existing home sales
continue to struggle under lack of supply, a trend that will likely continue given the low rates
of new home construction, particularly at the lower price levels. Weaker employment-
generated demand and low housing turnover points to slower rates of remodeling growth
compared to the last few years of booming business, Boud said.”
Metrostudy/Zonda projects the number of remodeling projects worth $1,000 or more will
total 13.0 million in 2019, a 3.2% YOY increase. Big-ticket exterior and flooring projects
are expected to experience the largest increases compared to 2018, while pool and addition
projects will have the smallest YOY increases. The inflation-adjusted value of big-ticket
remodeling projects in 2019 is predicted to increase $9.2 million from 2018 to $203.7 billion
by the end of 2019. The number of big-ticket remodeling projects is forecast to increase by
roughly 300,000 in 2020 to 13.3 million, with the inflation-adjusted value of remodeling
projects predicted to jump to $211.5 billion.
According to Metrostudy/Zonda, all but one metro area — Bismarck, N.D. — will see
growth in 2019 remodeling project volume. The average growth rate in project volume in
2019 nationally is projected to be 3.1%. In 2020, 25 — or 6.6% — of the 381 metro areas
surveyed are projected to see declines in remodeling project volume.” – Vincent Salandro,
Assistant Editor, Remodeling and ProSales
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Remodeling
Source: https://www.remodeling.hw.net/benchmarks/economic-outlook-rri/rri-positive-but-projects-smaller-growth-in-next-two-years_o/; 11/22/19
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Remodeling
Source: https://twitter.com/hashtag/JBRECDailyInsight; 11/4/19
John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC
Repair & Remodel
“The age of the housing stock should factor into every repair & remodel related business
decision. The census reports the median owner-occupied housing unit was built in 1978, 41
years ago. R&R project rates don't slow down much for homes 25+ years old.” – Jacob
Belk, John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC
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Existing House Sales National Association of Realtors
October 2019 sales: 5.460 thousand
All sales data: SAAR
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S; 11/21/19
Existing
SalesMedian
Price
Mean
PriceMonth's
Supply
October 5,460,000 $270,900 $307,800 3.9
September 5,360,000 $271,500 $307,500 4.1
2018 5,220,000 $255,100 $293,900 4.3
M/M change 1.9% -0.2% 0.1% -4.9%
Y/Y change 4.6% 6.2% 4.7% -9.3%
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Existing House Sales
All sales data: SAAR.
Existing SF
Sales
SF Median
Price
SF Mean
Price
October 4,870,000 273,600 309,500
September 4,770,000 274,400 309,400
2018 4,620,000 257,700 295,300
M/M change 2.1% -0.2% 0.0%
Y/Y change 5.4% 6.2% 4.8%
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S; 11/21/19
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Existing House Sales
NE = Northeast; MW = Midwest; S = South; W = West
* Percentage of existing sales.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S; 11/21/19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Total U.S. U.S. SF NE MW S W
SAAR; in thousands
Total NE 690,000 12.6%
Total MW 1,290,000 23.6%
Total S 2,350,000 43.0%
Total W 1,130,000 20.7%
Total Existing Sales*
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Home Ownership Rate: 1965 to Q3 2019
The U.S. home ownership rate for the third quarter of 2019 was 64.8%, an increase of 0.3% from Q2 and
a 0.4% increase from Q3 2018.
Return to TOC
U.S. Home Ownership
Source: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html; 10/29/19
63.0
69.0
64.8
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
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Owner Occupied vs. Renter Occupied housing: 1965 to Q3 2019
Return to TOC
U.S. Home Ownership
Source: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html; 10/29/19
122,735
79,492
43,243
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Total Occupied Units Owner Occupied Units Renter Occupied Units
SAAR; in thousands
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Net Change Owner Occupied vs. Renter Occupied housing: 2000 to Q3 2019
Return to TOC
U.S. Home Ownership
Source: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html; 10/29/19
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Owners (+/-) Renters (+/-)
SAAR; in thousands
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Residential Electricity Customer Accounts: Q1 2008 to Q3 2019*
Return to TOC
U.S. House Ownership
Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/; 10/24/19
124,857
134,887
118,000,000
120,000,000
122,000,000
124,000,000
126,000,000
128,000,000
130,000,000
132,000,000
134,000,000
136,000,000
138,000,000
* Q3 is an estimate based on extrapolation of Q1 & Q2 2019 data.
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Residential Electricity Customer Accounts, Total Housing & Total Occupied Units:
Q1 2008 to Q3 2019*
Return to TOC
U.S. House Ownership
Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/; 10/24/19 and https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html; 10/29/19
* Q3 residential electricity accounts is an estimate based on extrapolation of Q1 & Q2 2019 data.
124,857
134,887
110,824
122,735
129,386
139,785
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
Electricity: Residential Customers Accounts (Quarterly ) Total occupied housing units Total housing units
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Residential Electricity Customer Accounts, Owner Occupied and Renter Occupied Housing:
Q1 2008 to Q3 2019*
Return to TOC
U.S. House Ownership
Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/; 10/24/19 and https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html; 10/29/19
* Q3 residential electricity accounts is an estimate based on extrapolation of Q1 & Q2 2019 data.
124,857
134,887
75,145
79,492
35,678
43,243
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Electricity: Residential Customer Accounts Owner occuupied housing units Renter occuupied housing units
SAAR; in thousands
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House Price Index - 3Q 2019
U.S. House Prices Rise 1.1 Percent in Third Quarter;
Up 4.9 Percent from Last Year
“U.S. house prices rose in the third quarter of 2019, up 1.1 percent according to the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 4.9 percent from the third quarter
of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.6
percent from August.
• House prices have risen for 33 consecutive quarters across the United States.
• House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the third quarters of 2018 and
2019. The top five states in annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho 11.6 percent; 2) Maine 7.9 percent; 3)
Arizona 7.9 percent; 4) Utah 7.8 percent; and 5) Indiana 7.4 percent. The states showing the smallest
annual appreciation were: 1) Illinois 1.9 percent; 2) Connecticut 2.2 percent; 3) Maryland 2.4 percent;
4) South Dakota 2.7 percent; and 5) Iowa 3.2 percent.
• House prices rose in all 100 of the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters.
Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 11.1 percent. Prices
were weakest in Camden, NJ (MSAD), where they increased 0.7 percent.
• Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four quarter
appreciation, posting a 6.9 percent gain between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019 and a 1.8 percent
increase in the third quarter of 2019. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the Middle
Atlantic division, where prices rose by 4.0 percent between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019.” –
Corinne Russell and Raffi Williams, FHFA
“House prices have risen every quarter for the last eight years. Relative to a year ago, market indices are
still trending upward for the nation as a whole as well as in every census division, state, and the top 100
metro areas. Price gains, though, are continuing to slow their upward pace in a few cities with large
housing markets.” – Dr. William Doerner, Supervisory Economist, FHFA
Return to TOC
U.S. Housing Prices
Source: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2019Q3_HPI.pdf; 11/26/19
Return TOC Return to TOC
U.S. Housing Prices
Source: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2019Q3_HPI.pdf; 11/26/19
Source: FHFA
279.2
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Cities In Sun Belt Region Lead In Annual Gains According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
“Data for August 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S. The
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in September, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite
posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.0% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In
September, Phoenix led the way with a 6.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a
4.6% increase and Tampa with a 4.5% increase. Ten of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in
the year ending September 2019 versus the year ending August 2019.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in
September. The 10-City Composite did not post any gains and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1%
increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month
increase in September. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite posted
a 0.4% increase. In September, 12 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 17 of
20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
September’s report for the U.S. housing market is reassuring. The national composite index rose
3.2% relative to year-ago levels, with smaller increases in our 10- and 20-city composites. Of the
20 cities in the composite, only one (San Francisco) saw a year-over-year price decline in
September. After a long period of decelerating price increases, it’s notable that in September both
the national and 20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in August, while the 10-city
index’s September rise matched its August performance. It is, of course, too soon to say whether
this month marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend. At a
regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the fourth consecutive month with September’s
6.0% year-over-year gain. The Southeast region was also strong, as Charlotte, Tampa, and Atlanta
all rose at greater than a 4.0% clip.” – Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of
Index Investment Strategy, S&P Dow Jones Indices
U.S. Housing Prices
Source: https://us.spindices.com; 11/26/19
Return TOC Return to TOC
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
230.9
212.2
218.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
20-City Composite 10-City Composite U.S. National Home Price Index
Source: https://us.spindices.com; 11/26/19
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First-Time House Buyers
Urban Institute
“In August 2019, the FTHB share for FHA, which has always been more focused on first
time home buyers, fell very slightly to 82.3 percent. The FTHB share of VA lending also fell
slightly in August, to 52.4 percent. The GSE FTHB share in July was 45.7 percent. …based
on mortgages originated in July 2019, the average FTHB was more likely than an average
repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, and higher LTV and higher
DTI, thus paying a higher interest rate” – Bing Lai, Research Associate, Housing Finance
Policy Center
Sources: https://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-november-2019/view/full_report; 12/4/19
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First-Time House Buyers
AEI Housing Center
Slight Credit Tightening Continues
“The Composite NMRI for purchase loans declined 0.3% year-over-year (yoy). For FHA,
the index is also declining at a rate of 0.3% (yoy), and it is down substantially from a
year ago. Interestingly, credit tightened for first-time buyers but remained unchanged for
repeat buyers, in a significant trend reversal. Credit has slightly tightened for the last 3
months. Time will tell whether this trend continues.” – Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter, AEI
Housing Center
Sources: https://hello.aei.org/rs/475-PBQ-971/images/HMI-Briefing-presentation-11-25-19-FINAL.pdf; 11/25/19
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First-Time House Buyers
AEI Housing Center
Agency First-time Buyer (FTB) Loan Share
“Because of faster growth in repeat buyer volume, the Agency FTB loans share has declined
to 56.8% in August 2019. This is down from 58.0% in August 2018 and represents a
significant trend reversal from the last 5 years, during which the FTB share continuously
marched up.” – Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter, AEI Housing Center
Sources: https://hello.aei.org/rs/475-PBQ-971/images/HMI-Briefing-presentation-11-25-19-FINAL.pdf; 11/25/19
Note: Data are for primary owner-occupied agency purchase loans.
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Housing Affordability
Urban Institute
“Home prices remain affordable by historic standards, despite price increases over the last 7
years, as interest rates remain relatively low in an historic context. As of October 2019, with
a 20 percent down payment, the share of median income needed for the monthly mortgage
payment stood at 22.7 percent; with 3.5 down, it is 26.0 percent. Since February, the median
housing expenses to income ratio has been slightly lower than the 2001-2003 average.” –
Laurie Goodman, VP, Housing Finance Policy Center
National Housing Affordability Over Time
Sources: https://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-november-2019/view/full_report; 12/4/19
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Housing Affordability
AEI Housing Center
National House Price Appreciation (HPA) by Price Tier
“In October 2019, overheating of the low price tier continued (right panel). HPA in the low
price tier was 5.2% year-over-year (yoy). In both the low-medium and medium-high tiers,
HPA was 4.0% and 4.1%, respectively. HPA in the high tier (about 7% of the market) was a
more modest 2.5%.” – Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter, AEI Housing Center
Note: Data for October 2019 are preliminary. Price tiers are set at the metro level and are defined as follows: Low: all sales at or below
the 40th percentile of FHA sales prices; Low-Medium: all sales at or below the 80th percentile of FHA sales prices; Medium-High: all sales at or below the 125% of the GSE loan limit; and High: all other sales. HPAs are smoothed around the times of FHFA loan limit
changes. From last month’s release, we have changed our HPA methodology to better deal with outliers. This change has prima rily
affected the high price tier.
Sources: https://hello.aei.org/rs/475-PBQ-971/images/HMI-Briefing-presentation-11-25-19-FINAL.pdf; 11/25/19
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Mortgage Credit Availability
Source: https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/november/mortgage-credit-availability-increased-in-november; 12/5/19
Mortgage Credit Availability Increased in November
“Mortgage credit availability increased in November according to the Mortgage Credit
Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) which
analyzes data from Ellie Mae's AllRegs® Market Clarity® business information tool.
The MCAI rose by 2.1 percent to 188.9 in November. A decline in the MCAI indicates that
lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening
credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI
increased 1.4 percent, while the Government MCAI increased by 2.9 percent. Of the
component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI increased by 2.2 percent,
and the Conforming MCAI rose by 0.2 percent.
Credit availability rose for the third straight month in November, with an increase in supply
across all loan types. Most notably, the jumbo index climbed to yet another record high, as
investors increased their willingness to purchase loans with lower credit scores and higher
LTV ratios. Additionally, the government index saw its first increase in nine months, driven
by streamline refinance programs. Expanding credit availability will continue to support
active levels in mortgage lending, even as refinance activity starts to level off.” – Joel Kan,
Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, MBA
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Mortgage Credit Availability
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae's AllRegs® Market Clarity®
Source: https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/november/mortgage-credit-availability-increased-in-november; 12/5/19
Return TOC
Summary In conclusion:
In October, the vast majority of the United States housing construction and sales markets were
positive – month-over-month and year-over-year. The exceptions were the yearly single-family
under construction and spending data categories. New single-family house sales and private
residential construction spending recorded monthly declines.
Housing, in the majority of categories, remains substantially less than their respective historical
averages. The new SF housing construction sector is where the majority of value-added forest
products are utilized and this housing sector has ample room for improvement.
Pros: 1) Historically low interest rates are still in place;
2) Select builders are beginning to focus on entry-level houses.
Cons:
1) Housing affordability indicates improvement;
2) Lot availability and building regulations (according to several sources);
3) Laborer shortages;
4) Household formations still lag historical averages;
5) Changing attitudes towards SF ownership;
6) Job creation is improving and consistent but some economists question the quantity
and types of jobs being created;
7) Debt: Corporate, personal, government – United States and globally;
8) Other global uncertainties.
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Disclaimer of Non-endorsement
Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or
otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States
Government. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States
Government, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
Disclaimer of Liability
With respect to documents available from this server, neither the United States Government nor any of its employees, makes
any warranty, express or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assumes
any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or
process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
Disclaimer for External Links
The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of the linked
web sites, or the information, products or services contained therein. Unless otherwise specified, the Department does not
exercise any editorial control over the information you October find at these locations. All links are provided with the intent
of meeting the mission of the Department and the Forest Service web site. Please let us know about existing external links
you believe are inappropriate and about specific additional external links you believe ought to be included.
Nondiscrimination Notice
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race,
color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual
orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from
any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require
alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's
TARGET Center at 202.720.2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of
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