The vital new artery to ease pressure and seize the opportunities surging daily in our premier world city

Tomorrow’s Rail

Michele Dix

08 July 2015

The case for growing London rests on the benefits for the UK of having a leading world city

London tops the global competitiveness league

Its agglomeration of high value services and international connections make it uniquely well placed to act as the UK’s gateway to the rest of the world, attracting investment, trade and visitors to the benefit of the whole country

UK population is growing...

• 64.1 million people in the UK (ONS, mid-2013)

• UK population projected to increase to 73.3 million by mid-2037

• The highest average annual growth rate is expected in England

London’s population is growing...

By 2050, London’s population will exceed 11 million people.

Distribution of growth

• Growth will not be uniform across London

• Population growth will be greatest in east London

• Employment growth will be greatest in West End, City and Canary Wharf (business and other services, finance, tourism, retail)

London’s transport challenge

The ‘Missing Gap

Significant investment already planned in public transport infrastructure across London though there remains a clear ‘gap’

Crossrail 2 corridor

Crossrail 2 – A potted historyYear Output Outcome

1944 GLP Concept of a cross London tunnelled rail service introduced.

1974 London Rail Study

Chelsea-Hackney Underground line identified as possible scheme to serve future demand

1989 Central London Rail Study

Continued support for Chelsea-Hackney line as part of wider need for additional rail capacity

1991 Safeguarding Chelsea-Hackney line adopted and directions issued

2000 London East-West study

Recommended further study to look into feasibility of Chelsea-Hackney to be delivered post-Crossrail

2002-2008

Continued investigation

Ongoing engineering feasibility, planning and optioneering work on Chelsea-Hackney line.

2008 Crossrail Royal Assent

Crossrail Bill becomes a Parliamentary Act

2008 Safeguarding refresh

Safeguarding directions for Chelsea-Hackney line updated

2009 DfT requests Mayor &TfL review scheme

TfL to review case for scheme, identifying new options in light of emerging London transport (MTS) and land-use (London Plan) policy, and to refresh safeguarding

2010 / 2011

TfL and NR policy support

MTS supports new rail capacity in SW-NE corridor. NR emphasise in South East RUS crowding on SWML and WAML could be reduced by Crossrail 2

Some stations omitted for clarity

Crossrail 2 route

• 200 – 250m long, NR type trains

• 6.4 diameter tunnels (like Crossrail)

• High frequency: trains up to every 120 seconds

• Could use new rail signalling technology to allow automatic train control in core tunnel

• Addresses key NR capacity gaps, especially on South Western Main Line

• Serves key London growth areas in Upper Lea Valley

• Serves more of London and beyond

CAZ zone

Upper Lea Valley OA

Crossrail 2: Why do we need Crossrail 2?

• London is growing rapidly• To accommodate the growth,

Crossrail 2 can unlock new areas for growth – Upper Lea Valley, supporting delivery of up to 200,000 new homes across London and the South East

• Crossrail 2 can also support economic growth, by providing more transport capacity to the Central London CAZ

• Crossrail 2 delivers substantial crowding relief to the Underground and to National Rail lines across the South East, e.g. South West Main Line into Waterloo and West Anglia Main Line into Liverpool Street

Safeguarding consultationThe previously safeguarded alignment has changed

Wimbledon – Clapham Junction via Tooting Broadway and King’s Road

Proposed extension to New Southgate

Angel to Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters via Dalston Junction

A potential branch from Angel to Hackney, which could form part of a future eastern branch

New portal location proposed just south of Tottenham Hale station

Victoria to Angel via Tottenham Court Road and Euston St Pancras

PreviousCurrent

The preferred option has been assessed against the following alternatives

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Alternative Scheme Summary Capacity Change

National Rail Alternative (Do Minimum +)

Package of on-network works, with key focus on capacity upgrade on the Southwest mainline (SWML) and West Anglia mainline (WAML) lines.

Metro Scheme New, high frequency, high capacity tunnelled system across London between New Southgate and Wimbledon

10% increase in central zone (zone 1 area) for LU

Metro + Mix of alternatives 1 and 2 with four tracking beyond Coppermill Junction to Liverpool Street

10% increase in central zone (zone 1 area) for LU

20-25% increase in WAML services to Stratford and Liverpool street

Crossrail 2 Regional Scheme (preferred option)

New, high frequency, high capacity tunnelled system across London which connects into SWML at Wimbledon and WAML at Tottenham Hale

60% increase overall on SWML routes into Central London

12% increase in zone 1 area for LU/ NR capacity 50% increase on WAML services to Stratford and Liverpool Street

Transport infrastructure requirements

11 underground stations

3 surface stations

shafts for ventilation, intervention and evacuation ~2km spacing between stations

main depot in theWimbledon area

NR upgrade(4-tracking...)

NR upgrade(6-tracking...)

The Crossrail 2 regional scheme delivers benefits across London and the wider southeast region

• 60,000 new homes currently planned in a ‘do minimum’ scenario without Crossrail 2

• Crossrail 2 can unlock and deliver up to 200,000 homes above what would be delivered in a do-minimum scenario

• The total additional capacity of the line could physically support twice as much growth – up to 400,000 new homes

• Greatest opportunities for growth linked to major growth areas – Upper Lea Valley and Outer London

Housing potential along Crossrail 2 route

Crossrail 2 jobs

• Supports up to 200,000 new jobs

• Supports 60,000 construction sector and supply chain jobs across the UK

Potential distribution of Crossrail 2 construction spend across the UK

Based on experience of Crossrail, Crossrail 2 has significant potential to support UK economy:

Crossrail 2 is a bigger scheme – meaning benefits to UK through supply chain will be bigger !

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Benefits to UK from CR1 supply chain

•97% of CR1 contracts awarded to UK based businesses

•75,000 opportunities for businesses

•Supporting 55,000 FTEs

•62% suppliers based outside London

•58% are small and medium sized businesses.

Crossrail 2: Funding and finance options

Project cost: £27bn with 66% “Optimism Bias”

Mix of public and private investment as with Crossrail 1:

•Central government grant

•Borrowing against future revenue, e.g. fares, other revenue streams

•Development contributions and opportunities for over-site development

•Business rates

•Other sources?

Local sources can meet 50% of the funding requirement

Local funding sources can meet over half the circa £27bn cost using measures already in place and generating funds

Government contribution would be met by:

•Stamp duty increases from new houses•Net increases in GVA

Source: PwC Funding and Finance Study

Future indicative programme to delivery

2015/2016Continued development of the scheme including more detailed station studies,

stakeholder engagement and public consultations.

Summer 2015 Ongoing refinement of the business case and funding study, including the submission

of 5 case Business Case to the Government.

2015 onwardsCommencing work on the various environmental and other assessments.

Late 2017

Target date for submission of application for Powers.

2020Commence construction.

2030Crossrail 2 complete