the voice of retail worldwide - national retail federation · pdf filethe national retail...

The National Retail Federation’s Holiday Survival Kit serves as a guide for

reporters and retailers, offering historical information on holiday sales,

employment data and consumer trends.

NRF experts will be available throughout the holiday season to discuss

consumer trends, economic data and a variety of other retail topics. To

interview a retail expert for print or broadcast, please contact:

[email protected] (855) NRF-PRESS

OR

Kathy Grannis 202-626-8189 [email protected]

Holiday trends and the latest survey data will be posted regularly on NRF’s Holiday Headquarters at www.nrf.com/holidays.

For up-to-the-minute holiday news, follow @NRFnews on Twitter.

The Voice of Retail Worldwide

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Table of Contents

I. Holiday Forecasts for 2013___________________________4 1. Holiday Sales and Forecast________________________________4 2. A Look at Historical Holiday Spending_______________________5 3. Holiday Sales by Select Sectors____________________________6 4. Retail Employment and Seasonal Hiring______________________7

5. Online Holiday Sales Forecast_____________________________8

II. 2012 Wrap Up: Holiday Trends and Consumer Research_______________8 1. 2012 Holiday Consumer Spending Numbers___________________8 2. When Americans Started Shopping in 2012___________________9 3. Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Final Numbers for 2012________ 11 4. Online Holiday Retail Trends from 2012_____________________11

III. Frequently Asked Questions_____ _________________13

IV. Tips for Navigating the Retail Insight Center: Access More Data in 5 Easy Steps_________________15

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CONTENTS PAGE

Holiday Forecasts for 2013The holiday season, defined by NRF as sales in the months of November and December, is the biggest time of year for

retailers of all shapes and sizes, and can account for as much as 20-40%of a retailer’s annual sales. This year, NRF

estimates that holiday sales will increase 3.9% to $602.1 billion. Holiday sales estimates are often viewed as a solid

indication of the overall health of consumers’ financial stability – decreasing during times of economic uncertainty and

increasing during a thriving economy. The average increase in holiday sales for the past 10 years is 3.3%.

Source: National Retail Federation, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data

Sales are expected to increase to 602.1 billion in 2013

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3.9%3.9%

YearHolidayRetailSales

(inmillions)

HolidaySales

Change

AnnualRetailIndustry

Sales(inmillions)

HolidaySalesasa%

ofIndustrySales

2012 $579,493 3.50% $3,000,651 19.30%

2011 $560,180 5.08% $2,870,018 19.5%

2010 $533,118 5.30% $2,727,112 19.5%

2009 $506,303 0.50% $2,640,725 19.2%

2008 $503,805 ‐4.41% $2,732,598 18.44%

2007 $527,046 2.76% $2,712,030 19.43%

2006 $512,883 3.33% $2,624,387 19.54%

2005 $496,332 6.20% $2,492,997 19.91%

2004 $467,339 6.77% $2,349,973 19.89%

2003 $437,704 5.11% $2,210,419 19.80%

2002 $416,416 2.12% $2,121,744 19.63%

2001 $407,789 2.07% $2,056,398 19.83%

2000 $399,529 3.40% $2,000,689 19.97%

HOLIDAY INDUSTRY SALES BY YEARHOLIDAY INDUSTRY SALES BY YEAR

Source: National Retail Federation, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data

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A Look at Historical Holiday SpendingJust how big is the holiday season in the grand scheme

of things? Nearly one-fifth of the industry’s annual

sales come directly from the months of November and

December, making it the top consumer spending event

of the year. Second to the holiday season is the back-

to-school and college season, which was estimated to

reach $72.5 billion this year. The holiday season also

accounts for more sales than Mother’s Day, Father’s

Day, Valentine’s Day, Halloween, Easter, and St.

Patrick’s Day combined.

Nearly 1/5th of the retail industry’s annual sales come directly from the months of November

and December

1/5th

Holiday Sales by SectorFrom jewelry and personal care items to

apparel and electronics, holiday gifts run

the gamut. In 2012, department stores saw

nearly 24% of their total annual revenue

come during the months of November and

December. The sector with the highest

percentage of sales that occur during the

holiday season is jewelry stores, which

reached 29% in 2012.

Source: NRF, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data

24%24%Of department store’s

annual revenue reported came in November and

December last year

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Retail Employment and Seasonal HiringEvery September as retailers ready their stores for the crowds that typically accompany the holiday

season, they also begin preparing behind the scenes by hiring extra staff. These new hires are

brought on to run the store, manage gift wrap, stock new inventories, and serve as customer service

representatives. In 2013, NRF predicts retailers will hire an additional 720,000 – 780,000 seasonal

employees. In addition to retailers’ seasonal positions, retail indirectly creates many jobs throughout

the holiday season for workers in transportation, manufacturing and fulfillment.

Source: National Retail Federation, derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

YearHoliday Employment

(in thousands)

Holiday Employment

% change Y-o-Y

2012 720.49 13.18%

2011 636.57 13.06%

2010 563.02 52.68%

2009 368.76 39.78%

2008 263.82 ‐61.68%

2007 688.38 4.26%

2006 660.27 ‐3.53%

2005 684.43 0.65%

2004 679.98 16.07%

2003 585.82 7.08%

2002 547.08 13.19%

2001 483.35 ‐35.08%

2000 741.16

HISTORICAL HOLIDAY HIRINGHISTORICAL HOLIDAY HIRING

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Shop.org Online Holiday ForecastShop.org expects online holiday sales to increase

between 13 and 15% to as much as $82 billion

this year. Using expected sales in the months

of November and December and economic data

derived from the U.S. Department of Commerce,

NRF’s chief economist expects online retailers will

see solid growth this holiday season. Source: National Retail Federation, derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

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2012 Holiday Trends and Consumer ResearchRetail companies, news media and analysts commonly seek out consumer trend data from the National Retail

Federation for insights into what to expect from shoppers during the holiday season. This is the twelfth year NRF has

partnered with Prosper Insights & Analytics (formerly BIGinsight) to provide this data.

Consumer Spending on Holiday Trimmings, Gifts and MoreIn 2012, shoppers spent an average of $752.24 on gifts, decorations, food, and more, compared to $740.57 spent in 2011.

Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2012 consumer spending survey

Gifts for family 423.36$

Gifts for friends 75.40$

Gifts for co-workers 23.56$

Other gifts 28.23$

Decorations 52.18$

Candy and food 101.12$

Cards and Postage 28.76$

Flowers 19.62$

Total 752.24$

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The Start of Holiday Shopping Though many shoppers wait until the last minute to complete their holiday shopping, a large number of

Americans say they prefer to shop for holiday merchandise while simultaneously picking out pumpkins

and costumes. According to NRF research,

about 40% of shoppers begin shopping

before Halloween each year.

Top ToysWhile traditional toys still top the lists for boys and girls each holiday season, many parents

are saying electronics such as iPads, apparel and pop culture items like Furby are more

popular gift choices for kids. The top five toys for boys and girls in 2012 were:

12.3%3.5%

7.0%

22.1%39.0%

16.2%

% SHOPPING

WHEN PEOPLE SHOPPED %

Before September.........................12.3% September.................................... ..7.0% October..................................... ....22.1% November.....................................39.0% First 2 weeks of December..........16.2% Last 2 weeks of December............3.5%



TOP TOYS (BOYS) 2012

LEGO Video games Hot Wheels Cars (generic) Xbox 360

TOP TOYS (GIRLS) 2012

Barbie Dolls (generic) Furby Monster High Dolls Disney Princess

Shoppers spent $28 billion on gift

cards in 2012

BILLION

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The Gift That Keeps On GivingIn an economy where gift giving often involves practical items like winter coats and appliances, gift

cards have emerged over the past few years as a favorite for both givers and receivers. According

to NRF’s Gift Card Spending Survey, holiday shoppers spent more than $28 billion on gift cards in

2012, the highest amount in the survey’s history.

2828


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total Gift Cards

(in billions)24.81$ 26.25$ 24.92$ 23.63$ 24.78$ 27.80$ 28.79$

Gift Card Purchasers: Approximately how much money in total will you spend on gift

cards this holiday season?

GIFT CARD PURCHASERS: APPROXIMATELY HOW MUCH MONEY IN TOTAL WILL YOU SPEND ON GIFT CARDS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?

$

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Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Final numbers for 2012Thirty-five million people turned up for retailers’ Thanksgiving openings in 2012, a 95% increase from 2009, when

a few companies first opened their doors on the holiday. Many shoppers have reported that they prefer spending

time that night with their friends and family in stores, as opposed to setting the alarm on Black Friday morning and

dealing with pre-dawn temperatures. But Black Friday has not lost any luster with bargain hunters: more than 88

million shoppers shopped online and in stores that day, making it the biggest shopping day of the year.


Cyber Monday, a term coined by Shop.org in

2005, began after retailers noticed a trend of

people shopping online on the Monday after

Thanksgiving. Today, Cyber Monday is viewed as

the kickoff to the online holiday shopping season,

when shoppers flood websites to take advantage

of retailers’ online promotions. In 2012,129 million

people said they planned to shop online the

Monday after Thanksgiving.


When people shopped 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thursday (Thanksgiving) 18,124,383 22,257,830 28,747,800 35,419,012

Friday 78,701,810 81,039,611 86,261,438 88,910,146

Saturday 64,106,752 73,074,834 75,215,128 81,303,632

Sunday (planned) 34,528,980 36,116,076 36,577,516 41,809,697

MILLIONS WHO SHOPPED BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND

SH

OP

PER

S IN

MIL

LIO

NS

0

30

60

90

120

150

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012S

HO

PP

ER

S I

N M

ILLI

ON

S

Online Retailers and Holiday PromotionsWhen it comes to the holiday season, retailers

large and small tout their online sales with free

shipping and other exclusive promotions for their

customers. Knowing that today’s shoppers like

to get their hands on a good deal whenever it

strikes, many companies launched their web

promotions as early as October. According to

Shop.org’s eHoliday Survey, three in 10 online

retailers last year planned to launch their web

promotions by October 15, and more than half

said they would do so by the end of October.

More than of retailers will launch their web promotions in October

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HALF

Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for Shop.org, 2012 retailer survey

Date Percent of Online Retailers

Week of October 1 or earlier 15.40%

Week of October 8 7.70%




Week of November 5 17.90%

Week of November 12 15.40%

Week of November 19 or later 5.10%

WHEN ONLINE RETAILERS BEGAN THEIR

HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS IN 2012

WHEN ONLINE RETAILERS BEGAN THEIR HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS IN 2012

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What is NRF’s prediction for holiday sales growth this year?

NRF is projecting 2013 holiday sales to rise 3.9% to $602.1 billion.

How much did holiday sales change last year?

In 2012, holiday sales increased 3.5% to $579.5 billion. By comparison, 2011’s $560.2 billion was a 5.1% increase over 2010. On average, holiday sales have increased 3.3% for the last 10 years.

Why are these numbers different than what you have previously reported?

The Commerce Department continuously revises retail sales data. NRF relies on the most recent set of estimates from the government for all of its forecasts and sales releases.

What percentage of annual sales do the holidays represent?

For some retailers, the holiday season can represent as much as 20-40% of annual sales. In 2012, holiday sales represented 19.3% of total retail industry sales.

Will NRF change its holiday forecast throughout the course of the holiday season?

While NRF reserves the right to change its forecast at any time, NRF rarely does so. In 2012, NRF raised its forecast mid-season when sales were better than expected. In 2001, NRF lowered its forecast.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do NRF’s surveys differ from its forecast?

NRF’s holiday forecast is based on an economic model using indicators such as housing data, unemployment and previous monthly retail sales reports from the U.S. Department of Commerce. NRF’s holiday surveys, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, provide a snapshot of what consumers say they plan to do for the holiday season. This is the twelfth holiday season that NRF has partnered with Prosper Insights & Analytics, formerly BIGinsight, to provide holiday data, making it possible to identify year-over-year trends.

How many extra jobs does the retail industry create during the holiday season?

This year, NRF estimates that retailers will hire between 720,000 and 780,000 seasonal employees, compared with the actual 720,500 they hired last holiday season. For historical holiday hiring information, see page 7.

What does NRF classify as the “winter holidays”?

NRF tallies total retail industry sales from November and December – 61 days – to determine holiday sales. Holidays during this period include Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa. This year there are 26 days in between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

How does NRF define “retail industry sales”?

Retail industry sales include most traditional retail sales categories such as discount stores,

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department stores, grocers, specialty stores and non-store sales but exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

What is Shop.org’s prediction for online holiday sales growth this year?

Shop.org projects online holiday sales to increase between 13 and 15% to as much as $82 billion during the months of November and December. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that final Q4 (October – December) 2012 e-commerce sales increased 15.7%.

What factors are used to calculate Shop.org’s online holiday forecast?

Shop.org’s estimates are based on data collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Census, the Conference Board, and NRF’s own calculations. These estimates include personal income and spending, consumer credit, consumer confidence, and previous monthly retail reports.

What is Cyber Monday?

Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, is the online retail equivalent of Black Friday. The term was coined in 2005 by NRF’s Shop.org division based on a clear consumer behavior in 2003 and 2004. Retailers noticed that many consumers, who were too busy to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend or did not find what they were looking for, shopped online that Monday to find bargains, often from work. At that time, many took advantage of the high-speed Internet connections available at work, when many had dial up modems or no Internet connection at home.

Why are many retailers putting holiday merchandise on the shelves so early?

Each year, about 40% of consumers begin their holiday shopping before Halloween. While most retailers do not begin holiday advertising until at

least October or November, they recognize that many people like shopping early to spread out spending. As a result, many retailers are putting holiday merchandise on the shelves in September – specifically decorations and greeting cards, which many people buy months in advance.

Is Black Friday the busiest shopping day of the year?

NRF does not monitor or track sales by day. However, ShopperTrak, which counts foot traffic at malls, reports that Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year, followed by “Super Saturday” and the Sunday before Christmas.

Why have retailers changed their return policies?

Some retailers make return policies more lenient during the holiday season, understanding that there may be a lag time between when a gift is purchased and received. However, many retailers have also begun to change their return policies to account for an increase in return fraud. Last year, according to NRF’s Return Fraud survey, retailers estimated they would lose $2.9 billion due to return fraud during the holiday season.

Are traditional retailers hurt when people shop online?

Most retailers have no preference when it comes to whether customers shop in stores or online or even through their smartphone – as long as they shop with them. Retailers know their customers like to shop in a variety of ways and they have adapted to ensure customers can shop anytime, anywhere.

Tips for Navigating the Retail Insight Center: Access More Data in 5 Easy StepsThe Retail Insight Center is a comprehensive online resource that provides easy access to industry research from government sources, NRF studies, and historical and current consumer trend data from Prosper Insights & Analytics.

1. Go to: research.nrffoundation.com.

2. Register as a user –

it’s free. Charts are available without registering as a user, however without a login users are unable to access all data that’s available, or customize charts.

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Once your options are set, click the “Update Chart” button for your new chart to appear

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3. Go to a topic page.

The Insight Center charts are organized by topic and subtopic. Use the navigation at the top of the page to find what you’re looking for.

4. Customize.

Users can select a date range, demographics, and even type of chart – such as a pie, bar, or line graph – when the data is available.

To do this, click the down-arrows in the top left-hand side of the chart, next to “Options” – this will display all of the options available for customizing this particular chart and data.

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5. Export or create a report.

Users have the option to export charts, download the data, or build a report combining research from various parts of the center. Want to share the information with someone else or your entire network? Users can send the page they’re viewing using integrated social media “share” buttons.

For more information on reading charts in the Insight Center, check out the Tools and Tips page.

The Voice of Retail Worldwide

325 7th Street, NW, Suite 1100

Washington D.C. 20004

www.nrf.com

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