the washington dc regional economy
TRANSCRIPT
8/1/12
GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
Regional Economics Workshop
August 1, 2012
The Washington DC Regional Economy
Current Conditions and Outlook
Lisa A. Sturtevant, Ph.D.
Assistant Research Professor, School of Public Policy Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University
The Washington Area’s Current Economic Performance
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US GDP and Washington GRP
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 19
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Annual % Change
Washington GRP
US GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Metro Areas 2010 GRP
1,281
736
532 425 385 374 347 326 314 272 258 231 200 198 191
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 $Billions
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 2007-10
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10 12 %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
(000s)
Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jun 2011 – Jun 2012
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 (000s)
Washington + 36,100
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by Sector Jun 2011 – Jun 2012
Washington MSA
3 -1
0 -2
6 0
5 7
-3 6
13 -4
7
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade
Manufacturing Information
Financial Other Services
Construction Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total = 36,100
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Professional & Business Services Washington MSA
-20 -15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20 25 30
2002
2005
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tot 2011 = 688,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Federal Government Washington MSA
-20 -15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20 25 30
2002
2005
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tot 2011 = 383,600 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
9.0 – DC 8.2 – U.S. 5.8 – SMD 5.3 – MSA 4.2 - NVA
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
The Changing Role of the Federal Government
in the Washington Area
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
Total Procurement
Federal Spending – Washington MSA Total & Procurement $ Billions
Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Federal Procurement Washington MSA
$ Billions
< 80-90 = $92 B > > | < 91-00 = $208 B > | < 01–10 = $562 B > |
Total = $862 Billion
Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report
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150
200
250
300
350
400 19
50
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Federal Employment Washington MSA
(000s) Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson
Nixon - Ford
Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2
- 22
+ 80
+ 36 + 18 - 6 + 4
- 42 + 22
Obama
+30
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Local Serving Activities 34.8%
Non-Local Business 12.0 %
Total Federal 39.8%
Procurement 19.1%
Assn 1.8%
Int’l 3.5%
Oth
er 1
.5%
Other Federal 10.7 %
Health/Ed.
4.5%
Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area
Growth Projections for Federal Spending and GRP: 2011- 2015
(in billions of 2010 dollars, annual % change)
Year Federal $s WMSA GRP 2010 $169.0 $425.0 2011 2.0% 2.6% 2012 1.0% 2.7% 2013 0.0% 2.9% 2014 1.0% 3.3% 2015 1.5% 3.2% 2015 $178.5 $491.2 Change ’10-15 5.6% 15.6%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, assumes Federal cuts associated with sequestration do not go into effect
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-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2016
Washington
U.S.
Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 11.2 11.8 12.5 14.0 13.0
Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.0 6.2 8.5 9.0 9.5
No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 17.4 18.0 21.0 22.0 20.5
REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 32.6 36.0 42.0 45.0 43.0
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2015 based on 2012 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/2012 NOTE: 2011 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar 13, 2012 published MSA total. Assumes Federal cuts associated with sequestration do not go into effect
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Area Total $s DoD $s % Total $s %US DoD United States $3,276.4 $557.0 17.0 100.0 District of Columbia 61.9 8.7 14.0 1.6 Maryland 96.3 18.7 19.4 3.4 Virginia 136.1 58.1 42.7 10.4 Total Area $294.3 $85.5 29.0 15.4
Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 2010
Total Federal and DoD Spending in DC, Maryland and Virginia, 2010
(in billions of dollars)
The Employment Impact the of Budget Control
Act of 2011 on the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region
State Job Losses* Job Losses* Total Job* DoD Cuts Non-DoD Cuts Losses
Maryland 39,395 75,400 114,795 District of Columbia 15,169 112,238 127,407 Virginia 136,191 71,380 207,571 Totals 190,755 259,018 449,773 % U.S. job losses 17.5 24.7 21.0 *direct, indirect and induced job losses resulting from BCA-mandated federal spending reductions in FY 2013; of the direct job losses totaling 161,161, an estimated 65,189 workers would be federal employees (40.4%) and 95,972 (59.5%) workers would be contractors, suppliers and vendors. Source: “The Economic Impact of the Budget Control Act of 2011 on DOD and Non-DOD Agencies,” Stephen S. Fuller, July 17, 2012.
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The Economic Impact of the BCA of 2011
Total and Direct Gross State Product FY 2013
(in billions of 2013 dollars)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
State Direct GSP Loss
Total GSP Loss
District of Columbia $7.443 $12.814 Maryland 6.811 11.546 Virginia 12.579 20.876
George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis
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