the washington region’s economy in 2019 and beyond€¦ · 29/01/2020 · the washington...
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The Washington Region’s Economy in 2019and Beyond
January 29, 2020
IREM 2020 Industry Forecast & Trade Show
Jeannette ChapmanDeputy Director and Senior Research Associate
Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
1. The Aging National Business Expansion
05
101520253035404550
% C
hang
e in
GDP*
Quarters After Trough
1991-Q1*
1982-Q3***
2009-Q2
2001-Q4****
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions*
*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars; *Quarters 40+ include the 2001 Recession ***Quarters 32+ include the 1991 Recession; ****Quarters 25+ include the 2009 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,000
U.S. Annual Change in Payroll JobsMonth-Over-The-Year*
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Reflects the preliminary revisions for March 2018 through March 2019; Includes temporary Census hires
(000s) Nov 19 = +2.2 M
(25.0)
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
U.S. GDP2007 – 2018 – 2024 (Annual % Change)
Forecast
Sources: IHS Markit (December 2019); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of December 2019)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Present Expectations
U.S. Consumer ConfidenceMonthly Over-the-Year Change
January 2015 – December 2019
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2. The Washington Region’s Expansion
40.3
(80.0) (60.0) (40.0) (20.0)
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0 140.0
1990 – 2018 Average: 37,300
Job Change in the Washington Region1991 – 2019* (000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*2018 and 2019 include projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
40.3
(80.0) (60.0) (40.0) (20.0)
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0 140.0
2015-2019: 48,300
Job Change in the Washington Region1991 – 2019* (000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*2018 and 2019 include projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
Prior Expansions: 61,300
3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%2.0% 2.0%
1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
0.3%
-0.1%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
15 Largest U.S. Job Markets2019* Job Change
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Through November **Includes projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
25.713.9 12.7 16.3 17.3 18.3 18.0 13.4
(20.0) (10.0)
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Private, Office-Using All Other
Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2019* (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Through October; includes projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
2007-2014: +15,650 Office-Using
0.70.0
2.1-0.7
0.07.9
1.0-2.1
4.65.0
-0.89.0
13.6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
ManufacturingWholesale Trade
Transportation & UtilitiesInformation Services
Financial ActivitiesConstruction
Other ServicesRetail Trade
Leisure & HospitalityState & Local Govt
Federal GovtEducation & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Washington Region Job Change by Sector, 2019*Ranked by Size in 2018 (000s) Total = 40,300
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Through October; includes projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Northern VA
D.C.
Suburban MD
Change in Jobs By Sub-State Area, 2014-2019* Monthly Over-the-Year Change (in 000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*2018 and 2019 include projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
3. The Washington Region 3.0?
2.7%
1.1%
4.8%
1.3%
4.7%
1.8%1.0%
2.4%
1.0%
4.8%
3.7% 4.0%
2.9%2.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Business &Leisure Travel
Advocacy New Media &Information
BusinessServices
Bio & HealthTech
Info. Comm.Tech.
Science &Security Tech
Washington Region U.S.
Established
Growth in the Washington Region’sAdvanced Industrial Clusters, 2014-2018
Annualized Growth
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Emerging
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2015 2016 2017 2018
U.S.
Washington Region
The Washington Region’s Established Clusters: Influence, Management Services & Travel
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2015 2016 2017 2018
U.S.
Washington Region
Washington Region:Excluding MGM
The Washington Region’s Established Clusters: Influence, Management Services & Travel
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2015 2016 2017 2018
U.S.
Washington Region
The Washington Region’s Emerging Clusters: Science, Security, Information & Health Technology
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
55.6 58.649.8
36.9
69.0 67.5 59.8
45.1
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0Actual Emerging Clusters Performed at U.S. Average
Job Change Scenarios in the Washington Region2015-2018
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*2018 and 2019 include projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.
4. The Near-Term Forecast
Employment Change by Sub-State Area(000s)
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of December 2019)*2018 and 2019 include projected revisions to the preliminary data and do not align with the estimates published by BLS.**Residual includes Jefferson, WV and jobs that cannot be attributed to a sub-state area.
2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020 2021 2022 2023
D.C. 13.1 7.4 8.3 5.9 8.9 4.9 4.2 3.6
Sub. MD 13.4 12.9 4.4 5.4 9.2 7.2 5.2 1.3
No. VA 28.8 21.9 26.8 27.9 22.6 23.6 17.8 12.9Residual** 3.3 7.6 (2.6) 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
REGION 58.6 49.8 36.9 40.3 40.9 35.8 27.4 17.9
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington Region GRP 2007 – 2018 – 2023 (Annual % Change)
Forecast
Sources: IHS Markit (December 2019); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of December 2019)
5. Population Growth
1980, 0.7%
2010, 2.1%
2018, 0.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Population Growth Washington Region, 1971 to 2018
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Intercensal & v2018 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Net DomesticMigration
Net InternationalMigration
Natural Increase
Total
Population Growth By Component ChangeWashington Region (in 000s)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Intercensal, v2009 and v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Estimate
2.5%2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1.6%
1.1%0.9%
0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
-0.1%-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%US: +0.9%
Percent Change in 25-34 Years OldsLargest 15 Metros, 2017 - 2018
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Vintage 2018 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
- 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1990 2018
Population by Age, Washington Region
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (1970-79 Intercensal Estimates & v2018 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Private Sector Workers 65+ Transitioning to Fulltime Nonemployment (retirees), Washington Region
Sources: U.S. Census (J2J Flows); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Unemployment Rate, Washington RegionJan 1990 – Oct 2019
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
October 2019: 3.0%
Questions?For monthly reports on the
Washington region’s economic performance go tosfullerinstitute.gmu.edu
@FullerInstitute