the water, life and civilisation project: meteorology investigating the climate of the eastern...
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The Water, Life and Civilisation project: Meteorology
Investigating the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean using regional climate models
David Brayshaw, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo & Emily Black
MedCLIVAR meeting, ICTP, Italy, October 2008
CBRL
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Talk outline
WLC-Meteorology is part of a broader programme at Reading University:
• Describe the WLC project more generally
• Present an outline of the Meteorology component
• Initial results
• Plans for the future
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JORDAN VALLEY
Origin of agriculture, 10,000 BC
First towns, 8500 BC
NILE VALLEY
Egyptian
Civilisation,
3500 BC
EUPHRATES VALLEY
Mesopotamian Civilisation
6500 BC
Throughout human history into the present day, and beyond, the scene of economic, social, and political change
that is intimately related to the hydrological climate
Aim: To assess the impact of changes in the hydrological climate on past, present and future societies in the semi-arid regions of the
Middle East and North Africa, with a case study of the Jordan Valley
Ancient civilisations in the Middle East and North East Africa
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Palaeoenvironmental studies
To reconstruct prehistoric, historic and modern landscapes of the
Jordan Valley
Archaeological studies
To understand human history within the Jordan Valley, and MENA region
as a whole
Development studiesTo understand current and future
demands on water usage and supply
Hydrological modelling
To describe the spatial and temporal variations in water
flow of the Jordan River system
Climate modellingTo describe annual and seasonal changes in climate for the Middle East and North Africa
Region, 20,000 BC – AD 2100
The five sub-projects and their links
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The Jordan Valley
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Aims of WLC-Meteorology
• Produce climate simulations of the Middle East that are of use to the palaeo-science teams in interpreting proxy-records and archaeological evidence over the last 12,000 years
• Combine/compare/contrast with regional palaeo-records
• Develop understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in such changes
• Emily Black working on C21 simulations
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Palaeo-modelling design
Two sets of integrations:
• “Baseline integrations”
• Investigating the impact of (relatively) slow changes in GHG, and insolation
• “Event scenarios” and sensitivity tests
• Atlantic MOC disruption at 8.2kBP
• Green/Wet Sahara
• Warm West Pacific
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Palaeo-modelling design: The baseline integrations
HadSM3 HadAM3 HadRM3
Land surface properties
(fixed at present day)
Green house gas changes
Solar forcing due to orbital
changes
Pre-industrial ocean heat fluxes
Climate forcings
Lateral
boundaries
SST
Climate models
Simulations at:
Pre-industrial, 1kBP, 2kBP, 3kBP, 4kBP, 5kBP, 6kBP, 8kBP, 10kBP, 12kBP
Fixed at “modern” valuesChanged to “past” values
Low resolution global models (~300km)High res. regional
model (~50km)
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Palaeo-modelling design:The “event scenarios”
Palaeorecords indicate spikes and shifts in the regional climate
Profound impact on societies:
• For example, increased aridity associated with collapse of Akkadian Empire ~4kBP (Cullen et al., 2000)
Causal mechanisms:
• “Natural” variability (which may also change with time)
• Specific climate “events” or “shifts”
Model limitations:
• Atmosphere only (thermodynamic slab ocean used in global model)
• Fixed vegetation scheme
• Short run length due to computational cost
Force specific, well known, climate “events” through the surface boundary conditions to examine the extent of the climatic response
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The regional modelDJF Mediterranean storm track
Plot from Kevin Hodge’s webpage
ERA-40 (1958-2000) Global model
Regional model
Figures show 2-6 day band-pass filtered standard deviation of meridional wind at 500 hPa
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The regional modelMAM Mediterranean storm track
Plot from Kevin Hodge’s webpage
ERA-40 (1958-2000)
Figures show 2-6 day band-pass filtered standard deviation of meridional wind at 500 hPa
Global model
Regional model
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Global model (Pre-industrial control run)
Regional model (Preindustrial control run)
ERA-40: January precipitation
Using a regional model: Spatial structurePrecipitation gradients
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Changes over the last 12,000 yearsSolar forcing and the seasonal cycle
• Warmer summer, colder winter• Seasonal forcing bigger than
GHG forcing (typically <1Wm-2 from pre-ind)
• Also see “later” seasons in recent millenia
ka BP
Mo
nth
Latitude
Mo
nth
Cross section at 35oN for each time period (anomalies)
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Changes during the last 12kaBP
Changes in surface air temperature and precipitation in palaeo simulations for the target region
Anomalies expressed w.r.t preindustrial
1 and 2 standard deviations shown
Surface air temperature anomalyDecember-February
Precipitation anomalyOctober-June
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Changes during the last 2kaBP: Surface air temperature anomalies
Cooler spring-early summer and warmer late summer/early autumnSeasons shift, coastal lag
Jan-Apr
May-Aug
Sep-Dec
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“Event” modelling:Green Sahara/Wet Sahara
From Nick Drake’s webpage: http://uk.geocities.com/[email protected]/
In early-mid Holocene evidence for large palaeo-lakes in North Africa (e.g. Lake Megachad, Drake and Bristow, 2006).
Dessicated in a relatively abrupt shift ~4-6kyBP
Also evidence of much increased vegetation in the earlier Holocene
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“Event” modelling:Green Sahara/Wet Sahara
Figures from Braconnot et al (2007)
GCMs: Northward shift and intensification of the ITCZ at 6kBP
Connected to stronger NH summer insolation, stronger monsoonal flows and changes in tropical SST gradients (e.g. PMIP2, Braconnot et al 2007)
Amplified by vegetation feedbacks
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“Event” modelling:Green Sahara/Wet Sahara
From Nick Drake’s webpage: http://uk.geocities.com/[email protected]/
Possible simulations:
1. Control 6kBP simulation
2. 6kBP + imposed Green Sahara
3. 6kBP + imposed “Wet” Sahara (green and open lakes)
4. 6kBP + enhanced tropical SST gradients
5. Combined (3)+(4)?
Use regional model to examine impact on Mediterranean storm track
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“Event” modelling: 8.2kBP event
• Widespread evidence for a “spike” in palaeorecords around ~8,000 years ago
• Cause believed to be bursting of ice dams holding back glacial lake Agassiz in NE America
• “Put very simply, a really big flood happened … from Laurentide-dammed lakes … [at] an age of about 8.47ka” (Alley and Agustsdottir, 2005)
• Disrupts MOC in North Atlantic
• Some relevance to future MOC weakening (“it is very likely that the Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century”, IPCC 4AR)
Summary of climate anomalies associated with 8.2kBP event
From Alley and Agustsdottir (2005)
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“Event” modelling: MOC shutdown
• MOC shutdown experiments
• HadCM3 “hosing” simulation under pre-industrial conditions (Vellinga and Wu, 2008)
• Using SST data to tune slab models and repeat experiments using HadSM3/HadRM3
• Focus on impacts upon Mediterranean storm track
• Sensitivity to background state– 8,000 years BP
– Pre-industrial conditions warmer colder
Sea ice
DJF surface temperature change
(MOC off – MOC on)
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“Event modelling”: MOC shutdownStorm tracks and the mean flow
Control: storm track (BPF MSLP)
Hosed: storm track (BPF MSLP) Hosed: U @ 250 hPa
Control: U @ 250 hPa
For Atlantic storm tracks, see Brayshaw et al (under review, JClim)
Dramatic changes in mid-latitude storm tracks and jet structure but insufficient resolution to confidently assess the impacts on Mediterranean storm track
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Other work:Downscaling for hydrology
• Comparing with rain-gauge style data
Rain gauge data
Model simulations
PDF of rain on rain day
Fitted gamma functions/histogram
Probability of rain:
Markov chains
Pr(Rain|Rain) Pr(Rain|NoRain)
Statistical model
Synthetic rainfall time
seriesHydrology models etc
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Future work:TRACK diagnostics
• Kevin Hodges’ TRACK diagnostics– Track density– Storm intensity– Genesis density– Lysis density– Feature density– Lifetime– Speed– Growth/decay rates
• Using Vorticity 500 hPa (3h) and a range of 6h data• See Hoskins and Hodges (2002)
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Summary
• Regional model greatly improves spatial detail in the Eastern Mediterranean
• Simulations run for a range of time periods: 2100AD to 12kBP
• Future work will focus on physical mechanisms:– Understanding changes in storm track (e.g., using TRACK)
– Sensitivity tests (8.2ky event, Green Sahara, Warm West Pacific)
• Investigating downscaling, and possibly forward modelling of Oxygen isotopes
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Any questions?
Contact:
– www.waterlifecivilisation.org