the wellington perspective. the earthquake impact on wellington christchurch had an earthquake that...
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The Earthquake Impact on Wellington We await Royal Commission findings into Christchurch? We expect Wellington to stay as is in any review of Building Code as we have well defined geology. Christchurch does not, therefore its zone factor changes 0.2 to 0.3. Wellington0.40 Christchurch0.30 Auckland0.13 Dunedin0.13 NB: Wellington = 3 x AucklandTRANSCRIPT
The Wellington Perspective
The Earthquake Impact on Wellington
Christchurch had an earthquake that no one expected.Wellington has been expecting the Big One for 45 years, why?
The Christchurch event has caused a significant reduction in the likelihood of rupture of the Wellington Fault over the next 100 years – this is good!
The likelihood of rupture of the Wellington Fault is 10%.
The Earthquake Impact on Wellington
We await Royal Commission findings into Christchurch?
We expect Wellington to stay as is in any review of Building Code as we have well defined geology. Christchurch does not, therefore its zone factor changes 0.2 to 0.3.Wellington 0.40Christchurch 0.30Auckland 0.13Dunedin 0.13
NB: Wellington = 3 x Auckland
The Earthquake Impact on Wellington
Earthquake Effects
Not all ground is created equal
Determining FactorsGround Shaking – greatest levels of damage and lossLiquefaction – plus lateral spreadingSlope Failure – slips, landslidesSurface Fault Rupture – tectonic tiltingTsunami and Seiching
Focus in risk reduction needsto be not just life safety BUT:Damage controlReparabilityPost event functionality
The Earthquake Impact on Wellington
Looking Forward
Agents need to be more professional…
“This will be bigger than leaky homes”
Need to have understanding of % of NBS of stock
Need to have current IEP reports
Can’t just say “I don’t know”
Leases to change and be increasingly net plus outgoings
Full replacement versus indemnity cover insurance
Loss of rents / business disruption (24 months) clauses
Be nimble and inventive – e.g. pop up offices etc….
The Earthquake Impact on Wellington
NBS is creating the market – three tier market
< 33% Earthquake Prone
34% to 67% Earthquake Risk
> 67% Minimum, > 70% Government, > 80% Multi Nationals
It is obvious that tenants and not legislation or policy drives the market.The decision maker is driven by: Health and safety issuesDirectorial responsibility
Opportunity KnocksHave the information at your finger tipsBe recognised as professional and responsiveMarket over reaction creates buying opportunities