the world bank: regime-type and emergency aid disbursement by: ashwin puri and zackary abu-akeel
TRANSCRIPT
THE WORLD BANK: REGIME-TYPE AND EMERGENCY
AID DISBURSEMENT
By: Ashwin Puri and Zackary Abu-Akeel
PREMISE
•Does the regime-type of a country effect foreign aid disbursement by The World Bank in emergency crises?
X AND Y
X: Regime-Type of Country
Y: Frequency of Foreign Aid
During Emergency
Crises
HYPOTHESIS
• If a country is a democracy (regime-type), then in emergency crises they will receive foreign aid by The World Bank more frequently than an Autocracy.
LITERATURE REVIEW
• Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith: Leader Survival and Natural Disasters
• Disasters have a minimal effect on the stability of democracies
• Large effect on the stability of autocracies
• How does foreign aid factor in?
REGIME-TYPE DATA• Obtained from Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio
Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, used in Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990
• Regime-Type is measured by Contestation in Democratic Elections:
• Ex-ante Uncertainty: Probability that one member of incumbent party will lose election
• Ex-post Irreversibility: Assurance that winner will assume office
• Repeatability: Continued elections must occur; winner must not make future elections impossible
EMERGENCY CRISES DATA• Obtained from EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database
• Consists of all determined disasters from 1900-2014
• A “Disaster” is determined by one or more of the following:• Ten (10) or more people reported killed.• Hundred (100) or more people reported affected.• Declaration of a state of emergency.• Call for international assistance.
• Merged with The World Bank’s data on emergency aid disbursement.
MERGED DATA
CORRELATION
• Accounting for our new variable, the amount of crises The World Bank has responded to per country, over the total amount of crises in a country per year over time.
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
•A regime-type of democracy increases the likelihood of aid from The World Bank in emergency-crises situations.
•Further controls to account for
QUESTIONS?