the world in 2050 · 2019. 4. 24. · sustainable future transformation legitimacy of baueroding...
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International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Former Professor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050
International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Former Professor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050 and the Six Grand Transformations towards SDGs SDGs:
ProsperitySocial Inclusion
Sustainability
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Four Great Achievements since the Beginning of Industrial Revolution
Life expectancy has doubled in a century
One billion are obese while less go hungry
Less die by war and violence than suicide
Everyone in the world has a mobile phone
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Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
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Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
Wood for Cooking
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Denmark
Finland
France
GermanyJapan
New Zealand
Norway
Sweden
United KingdomUnited States
y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76
0.1
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0.6
0.1
0.2
0.3
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0.5
0.6
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40Inequality
(1985 Gini Coefficient)
Intergenerational earnings elasticity
The Great Gatsby Curve
United States(2010)
y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76
United States (2010 Gini)
.
The Great Gatsby CurveHigher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility
Source: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger CEA, 2012
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100,000-year ice-core record
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
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Tipping Elements & Paris
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
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Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)
Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Climate Change & SDGs Key messages derived from IPCC SR1.5
● Climate Change is undermining sustainable development
● NDCs are insufficient to limit temperatures to 1.5°C
● There are multiple synergies between limiting warming to 1.5oC and achievement of the SDGs
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
loba
l Policy C
osts (2
010‐20
30)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
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Interactions between SDG 7 & other SDGs
Source: McCollum et. al, 2018
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Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages
interlinkages among Goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
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Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages
interlinkages among Goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
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Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages
interlinkages among Goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
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TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Key MessagesSynthesis1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead3. Sustainable Development
Pathways4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20 organizations
>150 contributors and participants
TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
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TWI2050 Report Launch@ HLPF 2018
● Advancing STI for SDGs– July 10, 11-13:00, @ UN HQ,
Conference Room 4● TWI2050 Report Launch
– July 12, 13-15:00 @ UN HQ, Conference Room S-1522/23
● Managing interactions between SDGs for transformation– July 12, 18:30-20:00 @ UN HQ,
Conference Room A
TWI2050 Launch HLPF10 July 2018, UN
● @ German House– July 17, 13:30 – 15:00, Permanent Mission of the Republic
of Germany to the UN, UN Plaza
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Outreach & Impact● > 2,500 report downloads (IIASA only)● > 400 hard copies disseminated● 6 Policy briefs for EGMs and HLPF● Input to Technology Facilitation
Mechanism of STI for SDGs and HLPF on SDGs review
● Box on digitalization in upcoming GSDR ● > 55 citations (report and initiative) on
Google Scholar
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Some Key MessagesAttaining the SDGs requires vigorous action now,
and a people and planet focus beyond 2030! As everything is integrated in the connected world,
transformation requires a holistic perspective!Transformational change is needed but to succeed
we must take along winners and losers!The world is at crossroads as we are currently
experiencing signs of a counter-transformation!
A central to sustainability transformation is effective and inclusive governance!
Think globally, act locally! Think long-term, act now!
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Vision: Sustainable Future
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Source: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.org)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Target space 2050+ →
← Target space 2030
One “backcasting” storyline and many transformational pathways
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Human capacity Demography &
Health
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
Decarbonization& Energy
Consumption& Production
Smart Cities & Mobility
Food, Biosphere & Water
Digital Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
shar
e (%
)
0102030405060708090
100
Primary education
Secondary education
Tertiary education
Education and Human Capacity
Transformation (SSP1)
Source: Lutz et al., 2018
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
1
Greenhouse gas emissions pathways● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2
emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels)
● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050
● Reducing non‐CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
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Human capacity Demography &
Health
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
Decarbonization& Energy
Consumption& Production
Smart Cities & Mobility
Food, Biosphere & Water
Digital Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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Impact of IC Technology Convergence Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
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Impact of IC Technology Convergence Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
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Technology Diffusion Compareddigital revolution
Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 2017
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Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker
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THANK YOU