the world in 2050: transformations to achieve the ... · the world in 2050: transformations to...
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Cool forests at risk? 17-20 September 2018 @ IIASA, Laxenburg Austria
Session: C5b: UN and Paris Agreements and the SDGs: 18 September 2018
The World in 2050:Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Caroline ZimmTransitions to New Technologies Program
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Content
• Synergies and trade-offs across SDGs – need for integrated pathways
• The World in 2050 (TWI2050) framework & initiative as a response to this research need
• TWI2050 Report: first output presented @ UN HLPF 2018
–Six transformations and select pathways
• Research Outlook
2
3
Integrated approach needed: to feed 9 billion people and protect biodiversity at the same time.
4
Universal coverage of SDGs
5
Grand challenge calling for further integration of natural andsocial sciences for goal-oriented, policy relevant research
Integrated Assessment(Modelling)
EconomicModelling& Analysis
Social Science / GovernanceResearch
Tra
nsfo
rmati
on
2030 2050 +
Targets & indicators
2030: achievement of SDGs
2050+: social and
economic
sustainability within a
stable Earth system
Overarching narrative (grey)
Sustainable
Development
Pathways (colored)
TWI2050 Framework
Source: TWI2050.
TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Key Messages
Synthesis
1. Framing and Introduction
2. The Challenges Ahead
3. Sustainable Development Pathways
4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20 organizations
Launch: UN HLPF 2018 @ UN HQ
TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Key Messages
Synthesis
1. Framing and Introduction
2. The Challenges Ahead
3. Sustainable Development Pathways
4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20 organizations
Launch: UN HLPF 2018 @ UN HQ
TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
Decarbonization
& energyEnergy access, efficiency,
electrification,
decent services
Consumption &
productionResource use,
circular economy,
sufficiency, pollution
Digital
revolutionArtificial intelligence, big data,
biotech, nanotech, autonomous
systems
Smart citiesDecent housing, mobility,
sustainable infrastructure,
pollution
Human capacity
& demographyEducation, health, ageing,
labor markets, gender, inequalities
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Food, biosphere,
& waterSustainable intensification,
biodiversity, forests, oceans,
healthy diets, nutrients
Six Major Transformations
Source: TWI2050.
Decarbonization
& energyEnergy access, efficiency,
electrification,
decent services
Consumption &
productionResource use,
circular economy,
sufficiency, pollution
Digital
revolutionArtificial intelligence, big data,
biotech, nanotech, autonomous
systems
Smart citiesDecent housing, mobility,
sustainable infrastructure,
pollution
Human capacity
& demographyEducation, health, ageing,
labor markets, gender, inequalities
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Food, biosphere,
& waterSustainable intensification,
biodiversity, forests, oceans,
healthy diets, nutrients
Six Major Transformations
Source: TWI2050.
Human Capacity & Demography
15-24yr olds w/ lower secondary
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
share
(%
)
6065707580859095
100
History SSP2
Life expectancy
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050ye
ars
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
History SSP2
Prosperity/Equity
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gin
i coeffic
ient
(-)
0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70
1000 U
S$2015
51015202530354045
History SSP1 SSP2
Gini
GDP/cap
Source: Lutz et al. (2018), historic data from UNDESA (2017),
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015), SSP Database (2012-2016).
Human Capacity & Demography
Substantial advances in human capacity are needed through further improvements of education and health care.
15-24yr olds w/ lower secondary
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
share
(%
)
6065707580859095
100
History SSP1 SSP2
Life expectancy
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050ye
ars
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
History SSP1 SSP2
Prosperity/Equity
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gin
i coeffic
ient
(-)
0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70
1000 U
S$2015
51015202530354045
History SSP1 SSP2
Gini
GDP/cap
Source: Lutz et al. (2018), historic data from UNDESA (2017),
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015), SSP Database (2012-2016).
Consumption & Production
Domestic water use
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
km
^3
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SSP2History
Food demand
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050Tota
l Food E
J15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Food
(anim
al) E
J
456789101112
History SSP2
Livestock
Total food
Final energy demand
1990 2010 2030 2050
EJ
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
SSP2History
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Consumption & Production
Domestic water use
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
km
^3
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Integr. SDG SSP2History
Food demand
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050Tota
l Food E
J15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Food
(anim
al) E
J
456789101112
History SSP1 SSP2
Livestock
Total food
Final energy demand
1990 2010 2030 2050
EJ
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Integr. SDG SSP2History
Reducing demand across all sectors is key, allowing to do more with less resources.
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Decarbonization & Energy
CO2 emissions
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050C
O2
em
issio
ns (
Gt
CO
2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
SSP2History
Energy Structure
1970 1990 2010 2030 20500.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
SSP2History
Unabated fossil fuels
Non-biomass renewables
% in P
rim
ary
Energ
y
Pop w/o clean cooking
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
bill
ion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
History SSP2
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Decarbonization & Energy
It is possible to fully decarbonize the energy-system by around 2050 while
providing clean energy for all.
CO2 emissions
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050C
O2
em
issio
ns (
Gt
CO
2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Integr. SDG SSP2History
Energy Structure
1970 1990 2010 2030 20500.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Integr. SDG SSP2History
Unabated fossil fuels
Non-biomass renewables
% in P
rim
ary
Energ
y
Pop w/o clean cooking
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
bill
ion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
History SDG SSP2
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Food, Biosphere & Water
Pop at risk of hunger
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
mill
ion
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
History SSP2
Biodiversity
1970 1990 2010 2030 205060616263646566676869
% o
f specie
s a
bundance
SSP2History
Cereal yield
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
index
(2010=
1)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
SSP2History
Source: Hasegawa et al (forthcoming), van Vuuren et al (2015), Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Food, Biosphere & Water
Achieving access to nutritional food and clean water for all, while protecting
the biosphere and the oceans, requires more efficient food systems.
Pop at risk of hunger
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
mill
ion
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
History SDG SSP2
Biodiversity
1970 1990 2010 2030 205060616263646566676869
% o
f specie
s a
bundance
Nexus SSP2History
Cereal yield
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
index
(2010=
1)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Integr. SDG SSP2History
Source: Hasegawa et al (forthcoming), van Vuuren et al (2015), Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
ind
ex (
201
0=
1)
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
SSP2 Baselines
Food, agriculture & waterForest cover
Source: “integrated SDG” from Parkinson et al. (2018), “lifestyle change” from van Vuuren et al. (2018), SSP1-1.9 from Rogelj et al. (2018), historic data from FAOSTAT (2018), SSP Database (2012-2016).
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
ind
ex (
201
0=
1)
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
SSP2 Baselines
SSP1 1.9 W/m2
integrated SDG
Lifestyle
Food, agriculture & waterForest cover
Source: “integrated SDG” from Parkinson et al. (2018), “lifestyle change” from van Vuuren et al. (2018), SSP1-1.9 from Rogelj et al. (2018), historic data from FAOSTAT (2018), SSP Database (2012-2016).
Smart Cities
Urban pop w/o clean water/san
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
bill
ion
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
SSP2History
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, SSP database
Smart Cities
New investments in urban infrastructures are urgently needed to achieve
all 17 SDGs in cities.
Urban pop w/o clean water/san
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
bill
ion
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
Integr SDG SSP2History
Urbanization
1990 2010 2030 2050
bill
ion
0123456789
SlumsHistory
Rural population
Urban population
SSP1
Source: Parkinson et al 2018, UN Habitat, SSP database
Research Outlook
Further development of model-based analyses:i) increasing the coverage of SDGs and their interactionsii) better representation of the geographic and societal
heterogeneity iii) better reflection of societal change and governance
dimensionsiv) multi-disciplinary approach combining integrated
assessment modeling with the contribution of other scientific disciplines
v) assessment of investment and financing
Assignment
1. What is the focus of your research and why is it important for climate, bioeconomy or people?
Integrated and interdisciplinary science considering inetractionsbetween socio-economic and Earth systems2. Did your research identify key challenges (threats or risks)to maintain the critical values of boreal and mountain ecosystems? N.A.3. What would be your suggestion to address these challenges?N.A.
● Arizona State University (ASU)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Climate Center Service Germany (GERICS)● Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturals (CEMADEN)● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford ● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Fondazione Centro Euro-Meditteraneao sui Cambimaneti Climatici (CMCC)● Future Earth● Future Ocean ● German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) ● Imperial College● Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)● Instituto Nacaional de Pesquisa Espaciais (INPE)● Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)● Millennium Institute● MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change ● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Oxford University● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association● Science for Decisions● Stockholm Resilience Centre● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● Tsinghua University● University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)
The World in 2050 Partners
● Alpen-Adria University (AAU)● Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) ● Austrian Research Promotion Agency● Australian National University (ANU)● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Conservation International ● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)● Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI)● Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)● Fundação Oswaldo Cruz● Global Environment Facility (GEF)● Global Science Technology & Innovation Conferences (G-TIC)● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) ● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ● International Monetary Fund (IMF) ● Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)● Korea University (KU) ● London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Science Foundation (NSF)● Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen (RWTH)● Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS)● The Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa● UNDESA● UNEP ● Université Catholique de Louvain● University of Sussex● US National Academy of Sciences (NAS)● World Bank● World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
The World in 2050 Network