the x internet: leveling the playing field for businesses in developing nations navi radjou senior...
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The X Internet: Leveling the playing field for businesses in developing nations
Navi RadjouSenior Analyst
Eroica HowardResearch Assistant to the CEO
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Waves of Internet innovation
FTP
Telnet
GopherWAIS
Web
?????
Internetusers
What’s behind the X Internet?
What is the X Internet?
Early adopters of the X Internet in developing nations
When will these changes take hold?
Agenda
Bandwidth lags other technology improvements
Computing
Storage
Bandwidth
4 MHz8088
0.1 MBfloppies
0.3 Kbpsmodem
1981
25 MHz80486
30 MBhard drive
9.6 Kbpsmodem
1991
2,000 MHzPentium 4
100,000 MBhard drive
300 Kbpsshare of T1 line*
2001
* Though most PCs and servers ship with 100 Mbpsnetworking interfaces, actual Internet throughputremains limited by corporate Internet connections
50%
62%
27%
CAGR
Bandwidth continues to lag processing and storage technologies
12
20
100
600
3200
10
40
120
5001000
400010000
3000060000
160000
2.4
9.619.2 28 33
56
300
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)
Moore’s Law
X Internet moves beyond bandwidth’s limits
12
20
100
600
3200
10
40
120
5001000
400010000
3000060000
160000
2.4
9.619.2 28 33
56
300
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)
Moore’s Law
Mainframes andGreen screens
Client/server
The Web
X Internet
The X Internet refers to two “Xs”
An executable Internet that supplants today’s Web
An extended Internet that connects to the real world
The executableInternet
The executable Net creates a conversation
What should I do with my account?
Financial services tools (executables)
Two-way conversation about my account
BUY IT NOW
The X Internet connects digital to physical
Internetcomputers DigitalInternetusers
Physical
Vehicles
Telephones
Buildings
Temp: 52° F Fuel: 1/2 tank Door:
Closed
• Tag is integrated with door, fuel, and temperature sensors
• Sensor data is transmitted every few minutes
WhereNet devices simplify supply logistics
WhereNet devices simplify supply logistics
Yard inventory is conveyed to users through maps and reports
Colors indicate trailer status and alert conditions
X Internet pioneers in developing nations
Hanssem Kitchen Ware (China)
EAN International (www.autoidcenter.org)
CK Tang Department Store (Malaysia)
UNCTAD/Savi Technology partnership
The three waves of X Internet adoption
First waveof adoption(2001-2003)
Finance
LogisticsMedia
Second waveof adoption(2004-2006)
UtilitiesTelecom
Healthcare
Food and agriculture
High-techAerospace
Paper
PetrochemicalsAutomotive
Industrial equipment
Product fit• Bits-to-atoms ratio in end products• Intangibility of supply chain assets
2
3
4
5High
1Low
Industry readiness• Value chain simplicity• Propensity to adopt cross-firm apps
HighLow1 2 3 4 5
Third waveof adoption(2007+)Construction
Heavy industries
Consumer goods
X Internet devices and spending
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5
10
15
Devices(billions)
Devices
Spend$1
$2
$3
Spend(US$ trillions)
Summary
The executable Net will supplant the Web
The extended Net will connect digital to physical
The X Internet will let businesses in developing nations do more with what they have
Thank you
Navi Radjou Eroica Howard
[email protected] [email protected]
+1 617/613-6119 +1 617/613-6295
www.forrester.com