the$diffusion$of$cash/crops$since$the$ageof$explora-on$ 3_2.pdf ·...
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The diffusion of cash-‐crops since the Age of Explora-on
Alfonso Díez Minguela Universitat de València
Mª Dolores Añón Higón Universitat de València-‐ERICES
Valencia FRESH meeIng 2013 June 13, 2013
Universitat de València
Outline
2
• MoIvaIon
• Which crops?
• Model
• Case study: Coffee and Tea
• Conclusions
MoIvaIon
3
• The discovery of the New World and the opening of the Asian route through the Cape of Good Hope gave way to the Age of Explora-on.
• Since then, the world economy witnessed a conInuous
process of market integraIon: More goods, lower prices. Hersh and Voth (2012): ‘Sweet diversity and welfare gains’, co_on and the Industrial revoluIon.
What about producIon?
MoIvaIon? The 2000s
4
Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons
0.8$1.00.6$0.80.4$0.60.2$0.40.0.$0.2No+data
Map. Share of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials of total exports, 2000s
MoIvaIon: The 1960s
5
80#100%60#80%40#60%20#40%0#20%No+data
Map. Share of 8 cash-‐export crops in total exports, 1960s
Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons
Which cash-‐export crops?
6
England'and'Wales JapanCash'export'crop Year Year Source Year
SpicesCinnamon .. 1358 Navarra na
Cloves na 1358 Navarra naGinger 1265 1351 Navarra naPepper 1212 1358 Navarra na
Sugar 1265 1354 Navarra na
Coffee 1682 na = naTea 1673 na = 1741
Cotton 1770 1552 Valencia na
Cacao na 1683 Barcelona naTobacco 1741 na = 1741
Spain
Source: England and Wales: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914); Navarra: Earl J. Hamilton (1936), Money, Prices and Wages in Valencia, Aragon and Navarre, 1351-‐1500; Valencia: Earl J. Hamilton (1934), El Tesoro Americano y la Revolución de los Precios en España, 1501-‐1650; Barcelona: Gaspar Feliu (1991), Precios y salarios en la Cataluña Moderna Vol. I: Alimentos; Japan: Mitsui Bunko (1989) Trends of Major Prices in Early Modern Japan.
Which cash-‐export crops?
7
England'and'Wales JapanCash'export'crop Year Year Source Year
SpicesCinnamon .. 1358 Navarra na
Cloves na 1358 Navarra naGinger 1265 1351 Navarra naPepper 1212 1358 Navarra na
Sugar 1265 1354 Navarra na
Coffee 1682 na = naTea 1673 na = 1741
Cotton 1770 1552 Valencia na
Cacao na 1683 Barcelona naTobacco 1741 na = 1741
Spain
Source: England and Wales: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914); Navarra: Earl J. Hamilton (1936), Money, Prices and Wages in Valencia, Aragon and Navarre, 1351-‐1500; Valencia: Earl J. Hamilton (1934), El Tesoro Americano y la Revolución de los Precios en España, 1501-‐1650; Barcelona: Gaspar Feliu (1991), Precios y salarios en la Cataluña Moderna Vol. I: Alimentos; Japan: Mitsui Bunko (1989) Trends of Major Prices in Early Modern Japan.
Cash-‐export crops: Historical relevance
8
Figure. Share of Coffee, Co_on, Sugar, Tea and Tobacco of Imports in Great Britain 1700-‐1804
1020
3040
50
1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800
Total Sugar
Source: Mitchell, B. R. (2011): BriIsh Historical StaIsIcs
Cash-‐export crops: Historical relevance
9
Figure. Share of Coffee, Co_on, Sugar, Tea and Tobacco of Imports in Great Britain 1700-‐1804
1020
3040
50
1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800
Total Sugar
Source: Mitchell, B. R. (2011): BriIsh Historical StaIsIcs
Spain (1782-‐1796): 27-‐28% imports. Source: Fisher (1993)
Related literature
10
• Many crop-‐specific studies at region and/or country level: Maize in Africa (McCann, 2005); Maize in China (Chen and Kung, 2012); Co_on (Riello, 2013) among others; Rubber and conflict in Benin (Fenske, 2013). Also general overviews: Kiple and Ornelas (2000)
Contrary to the previous studies, we a_empt to first describe and study the worldwide diffusion.
11
Model
Data
12
• Area harvested. Source: FAOSTAT
• Land suitability. Source: GAEZ-‐FAOSTAT. Land suitability is defined as land classified as being of medium, good, high and very high class for the culIvaIon of each crop (SI>40). A Suitability Index (SI) of 40 indicates a potenIal yield of at least 40 per cent of the maximum possible yield. We also assume the following condiIons: rain-‐fed culIvaIon, low input intensity and the climate baseline period 1961-‐1990.
Land suitability
13
Model
14
Yi = α + βXi+ γZi + εi
Yi: Country share of world harvested area for each crop Xi: Country share of world suitable land for culIvaIon
Zi: Control variables
Note: The dependent variable is a frac5on [0,1). Therefore, we use an esImaIon method proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) for regression models with fracIonal response variable (Roper et al. , 2006).
LimitaIons
15
Problem 1. ProducIon is severely skewed towards zero.
Possible solu5on: “Two-‐part-‐model”
Part 1. Probability of culIvaIon
Part 2. CondiIonal on culIvaIon, what explains the rest?
Problem 2. Few observaIons as a result of specialisaIon.
Possible solu5on: Study regional/provincial level
GLM esImaIon: 1960s
16
! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !
! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa!
! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!
Land!suitability! 16.160***! 13.495***! 30.508***! 19.805***! 16.867***! 10.874***!
! (2.293)! (1.417)! (4.163)! (3.724)! (5.934)! (3.217)!
Constant! =5.441***! =5.366***! =5.861***! =5.759***! =5.438***! =5.311***!
! (0.358)! (0.212)! (0.302)! (0.235)! (0.400)! (0.467)!
! ! ! ! ! ! !
N! 168! 168! 168! 168! 168! 168!
!
GLM esImaIon: 1960s
17
! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton!! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!Land!suitability! 13.532***! 15.191**! 16.095***! 8.544***! 3.934***! 7.764**!! (2.145)! (7.614)! (4.992)! (1.674)! (1.474)! (3.056)!New!World! 3.058***! A1.871*! A1.719! 3.201***! 0.194! 0.873*!! (0.572)! (0.992)! (1.354)! (0.789)! (0.573)! (0.530)!British!colony! A0.529! 0.974*! 3.146**! 0.024! A0.086! 0.640!! (0.561)! (0.504)! (1.540)! (0.511)! (0.257)! (0.397)!French!colony! 1.709**! A1.307! 1.725! A0.755! A0.977***! A0.174!! (0.684)! (0.881)! (1.293)! (0.606)! (0.367)! (0.543)!Dutch!colony! 0.924**! A0.542! A2.732! A1.376**! 0.174! A2.802***!! (0.421)! (0.903)! (1.735)! (0.541)! (0.270)! (0.351)!Portuguese!colony! 1.977*! 0.326! 1.090! 0.534! A1.188***! 1.097**!! (1.059)! (0.895)! (1.583)! (0.546)! (0.357)! (0.552)!Distance!to!coast! A1.527! A2.929! A0.203! A3.043*! A0.513! 2.034***!! (0.968)! (2.210)! (0.842)! (1.698)! (0.407)! (0.520)!Distance!to!Britain! 0.631*! 2.021! 0.105! 0.664*! 0.204**! 0.181!! (0.347)! (1.454)! (0.240)! (0.403)! (0.100)! (0.144)!Population!in!1965! 0.685***! 0.925***! 0.397***! 0.882***! 0.809***! 0.852***!! (0.086)! (0.120)! (0.123)! (0.108)! (0.071)! (0.084)!Urbanisation!in!1965! A0.640! A3.702! 2.299*! A0.536! 0.364! A0.963!! (0.882)! (2.275)! (1.259)! (0.801)! (0.496)! (0.693)!Distance!to!origin! A1.260***! A0.127! A1.267*! A1.067***! 0.212! !! (0.147)! (0.407)! (0.647)! (0.378)! (0.227)! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !N! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167!
!
GLM esImaIon: 1960s
18
! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton!! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!Land!suitability! 13.532***! 15.191**! 16.095***! 8.544***! 3.934***! 7.764**!! (2.145)! (7.614)! (4.992)! (1.674)! (1.474)! (3.056)!New!World! 3.058***! A1.871*! A1.719! 3.201***! 0.194! 0.873*!! (0.572)! (0.992)! (1.354)! (0.789)! (0.573)! (0.530)!British!colony! A0.529! 0.974*! 3.146**! 0.024! A0.086! 0.640!! (0.561)! (0.504)! (1.540)! (0.511)! (0.257)! (0.397)!French!colony! 1.709**! A1.307! 1.725! A0.755! A0.977***! A0.174!! (0.684)! (0.881)! (1.293)! (0.606)! (0.367)! (0.543)!Dutch!colony! 0.924**! A0.542! A2.732! A1.376**! 0.174! A2.802***!! (0.421)! (0.903)! (1.735)! (0.541)! (0.270)! (0.351)!Portuguese!colony! 1.977*! 0.326! 1.090! 0.534! A1.188***! 1.097**!! (1.059)! (0.895)! (1.583)! (0.546)! (0.357)! (0.552)!Distance!to!coast! A1.527! A2.929! A0.203! A3.043*! A0.513! 2.034***!! (0.968)! (2.210)! (0.842)! (1.698)! (0.407)! (0.520)!Distance!to!Britain! 0.631*! 2.021! 0.105! 0.664*! 0.204**! 0.181!! (0.347)! (1.454)! (0.240)! (0.403)! (0.100)! (0.144)!Population!in!1965! 0.685***! 0.925***! 0.397***! 0.882***! 0.809***! 0.852***!! (0.086)! (0.120)! (0.123)! (0.108)! (0.071)! (0.084)!Urbanisation!in!1965! A0.640! A3.702! 2.299*! A0.536! 0.364! A0.963!! (0.882)! (2.275)! (1.259)! (0.801)! (0.496)! (0.693)!Distance!to!origin! A1.260***! A0.127! A1.267*! A1.067***! 0.212! !! (0.147)! (0.407)! (0.647)! (0.378)! (0.227)! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !N! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167!
!
19
Case study: Coffee and Tea
Coffee and Tea: Basics
20
• The coffee (coffea arabica/robusta) and tea (camellia sinensis) tree or bush are perennials.
• Coffee was first domesIcated in Ethiopia and the Arabian peninsula, whereas tea is essenIally Asian.
• Nowadays, coffee and tea are two of the most popular
beverages worldwide.
Coffee and Tea: Prices
21
0500
1000
1500
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850
Coffee Tea
Figure. Coffee and Tea prices (relaIve to wheat) in England and Wales, 1673-‐1869
Source: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914)
Coffee and Tea: Prices
22
0500
1000
1500
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850
Coffee Tea
Figure. Coffee and Tea prices (relaIve to wheat) in England and Wales, 1673-‐1869
Source: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914)
Coffee and Tea: The Great Divergence
23
02
46
8
1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910
Tea Coffee1(GBR) Coffee1(UK)
Figure. Coffee and Tea consumpIon (lb/cap/year) in UK, 1789-‐1914
Source: Mitchell, B. R. (2011): BriIsh Historical StaIsIcs
Coffee and Tea: ProducIon before the Great war
24
Cotton Tobacco Rubber Tea Sugarcane Sugarbeet Cocoa Coffee
Independent 0.251 0.306 0.342 0.361 0.408 0.426 0.481 0.929
Great>Britain 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021
France 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.109 0.008 0.003Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.008 0.003
Germany 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.258 0.020 0.001Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.001
Netherlands 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.033 0.016 0.042Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.000 0.016 0.042
Belgium 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.003 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000
Spain 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.016 0.011 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000
Italy 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Portugal 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004
Denmark 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
United>States 0.584 0.366 0.000 0.000 0.122 0.081 0.003 0.000Non;contiguous(territory 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.003 0.000
SUM 0.998 0.973 0.789 1.000 0.984 1.000 0.998 1.000
Table. Share of world producIon by crop, 1909-‐13/14
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926) Notes: Cocoa column includes BriIsh West Indies; Rubber column excludes African producIon.
Coffee and Tea: ProducIon before the Great war
25
Cotton Tobacco Rubber Tea Sugarcane Sugarbeet Cocoa Coffee
Independent 0.251 0.306 0.342 0.361 0.408 0.426 0.481 0.929
Great>Britain 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021
France 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.109 0.008 0.003Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.008 0.003
Germany 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.258 0.020 0.001Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.001
Netherlands 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.033 0.016 0.042Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.000 0.016 0.042
Belgium 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.003 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000
Spain 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.016 0.011 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000
Italy 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Portugal 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004
Denmark 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
United>States 0.584 0.366 0.000 0.000 0.122 0.081 0.003 0.000Non;contiguous(territory 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.003 0.000
SUM 0.998 0.973 0.789 1.000 0.984 1.000 0.998 1.000
Table. Share of world producIon by crop, 1909-‐13/14
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926) Notes: Cocoa column includes BriIsh West Indies; Rubber column excludes African producIon.
Tea: SpaIal Diffusion
26
Map. The spaIal diffusion of tea producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
1909$141960s2000sNone
Tea: SpaIal Diffusion
27
Map. The spaIal diffusion of tea producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
1909$141960s2000sNone
origin
Coffee: SpaIal Diffusion
28
Map. The spaIal diffusion of coffee producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
1909$131960s2000sNone
Coffee: SpaIal Diffusion
29
Map. The spaIal diffusion of coffee producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
1909$131960s2000sNone
origin
Coffee and Tea: Catching-‐up?
30 Source: FAOSTAT
0.2
.4.6
.81
1.2
Kilogram
s/capita/year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
coffee tea
Figure. World coffee and tea consumpIon (kg/capita/year), 1961-‐2009
Conclusions
31
• This is a preliminary a_empt to describe and evaluate the diffusion of some relevant agricultural crops.
• Our empirical analysis indicates that each crop has its own specific history.
• Does geography ma_er? Yes. However, geography (i.e land suitability) does not fully explain the worldwide distribuIon of cash-‐export crops producIon.
• Future research is needed to shed further light, e.g. prices, colonial rule, land tenure, trade policies.
32
Thank you
33
Appendix
Cash-‐export crops: Historical data
34
Commodity 1829/31 1859/61 1911/13 1927/29
Sugar 1 1 4 2Coffee 3 2 3 3Cotton 2 4 2 4Tea 6 5 10 10Tobacco 14 9 11 14Cocoa 7 7 7 19
Gold,<silver 4 8 12 7Petroleum 7 7 17 6Silk 8 7 18 17Wool 15 15 13 15
Table. Ranking of a selecIon of historical cash-‐export crops
Source: Bairoch and Etemad (1985), authors’ calculaIons
Cash-‐export crops: Relevance
35
Table. Export shares by commodity, 1960s (>40%)
Country (%) Country (%) Country (%)Sao$Tome$and$Principe 0.679 Burundi 0.685 Chad 0.601Ghana 0.654 Colombia 0.657 Sudan 0.528Equatorial$Guinea 0.539 Ethiopia$PDR 0.575 Egypt 0.513
Rwanda 0.563 Syrian$Arab$Republic 0.456El$Salvador 0.499TimorKLeste 0.457Brazil 0.451Haiti 0.441Guatemala 0.441Uganda 0.438Angola 0.429Costa$Rica 0.406
Country (%) Country (%) Country (%)Mauritius 0.904 Comoros 0.422 Sri$Lanka 0.607Saint$Kitts$and$Nevis 0.848 Bhutan 0.400Cuba 0.806Fiji 0.547Barbados 0.523Dominican$Republic 0.504Antigua$and$Barbuda 0.439
cocoa coffee cotton
sugar spices tea
Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons Notes: (a) Rubber: Malaysia (39.7%), Indonesia (31.3%); (b) Tobacco: Malawi (36.2%), Greece (28.7%)
Cash-‐export crops: ConcentraIon
36
Table. Herfindhal index of concentraIon , 1909-‐13/14, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
Cotton Tobacco Rubber Tea Sugarcane Sugarbeet Cocoa Coffee
Index3of3concentration3(1910s) 0.364 0.144 0.186 0.124 0.119 * 0.096 0.433N 34 44 5 8 36 * 24 31
Index3of3concentration3(1960s) 0.088 0.048 0.247 0.135 0.056 * 0.155 0.088N 91 118 29 34 100 * 58 78
Index3of3concentration3(2000s) 0.088 0.095 0.143 0.101 0.133 * 0.168 0.095N 88 129 29 46 105 * 59 78
Tobacco: SpaIal Diffusion
37
Map. The spaIal diffusion of tobacco producIon, 1909-‐14, 1960s and 2000s
Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons
1909$141960s2000sNone