Theory Construction

1. Creativity

2. Logical fallacies

3. Theory construction

Science is a creative enterprise

• Looking at some old data in a new way

• To see things in a different light = to see things at a more meaningful, theoretical level

• To be creative, means to do something new, to have a different thought about the way things work

Example

• For a long time offenders and victims were believed to be two distinct groups of individuals

• Data from the UCR and NCVS indicate that, like their offenders, victims of serious violent crimes are disproportionably male, African American, young, single, (i.e., never married, separated, or divorced), and have low socioeconomic status.

New view at victims• The same individuals tend to be both victims and

offenders • Offenders are also likely to be more attractive

targets for crime because they can be victimized with little chance of legal consequences

• They are reluctant to report victimization because they do not want to attract attention of the police to their own illegal activities because they are more likely to become victims of crime while committing other felonies

• “Offender-victims” are less likely to call the police because they are lacking trust to the police

VanGundy (1992)

• Our major problem is in our own assumptions about what is and is not permissible

• Typically these assumptions serve well, but when it comes to research or trying to be creative, they get in the way

• Thinking outside the box

Example (VanGundy, 1992)

• “A car is parked on a straight road facing west. A man gets into the car and begins driving. After traveling for a while, he finds that he is east of this starting point. How can this be?”

Solution(s)

• Most people assume that he man will drive forward

• He could just easily have put car in reverse and backed away

• He may have made a U-turn and struck out for the sunrise

• Also, he might have just driven around the world

Consider the figure below

• How many squares does it contain?

Solution

• Sixteen small squares

• One large outer square

• Four 3 x 3 squares

• Nine 2 x 2 squares

Answer

• “Once in a while”

The “nine dots” puzzle

• The challenge is to connect the dots by drawing four straight, continuous lines, and never lifting the pencil from the paper.

Solution

• The puzzle is easily solved, but only if you draw the lines outside of the confines of the square area defined by the nine dots themselves. Thus, the phrase "thinking outside the box" was born

In-the-box thinkers

• In-the-box thinkers are skillful at killing ideas

• They are masters of the creativity killer attitude such as "that'll never work" or "it's too risky"

In-the-box thinkers

• They also believe that every problem needs only one solution; therefore, finding more than one possible solution is a waste of time

• They often say, "There is no time for creative solutions. We just need THE solution."

Outside the Box

Thinking outside the box requires different attributes that include:

• Willingness to take new perspectives • Openness to do different things and to do

things differently. • Focusing on finding new ideas and acting on

them. • Listening to others. • Supporting and respecting others when they

come up with new ideas

Sources of Ideas

• Curiosity about things is the source of all research

• Curiosity alone may be too diffuse; it needs to be given focus and direction

• Look for evidence on the validity of explanation

Example

• A. Brill, a Freud’s colleague, developed a hypothesis that ….”what appears to be telepathic communication between two people in the same setting may be explained by their simultaneously seeing someone in the environment that independently triggers the same thought in each.” (Freud, 1938)

Observation

• The necessity for careful observation can hardly be overemphasized particularly when dealing with human behavior

• We ignore whole chunks of the behavior around us

• Well-trained habits of observations can be more important in research that a great store of academic knowledge

Anecdote (Beveridge, 1957)

• A Manchester physician, while teaching a ward class of students took a sample of diabetic urine and dipped a finger in it to taste it. He then asked all the students to repeat his action. This they reluctantly did, making grimace, but agreeing that it tasted sweet. “I did this,” said the physician,…” to teach you the importance of observing detail. If you had watched me carefully you would have noticed that I put my first finger in the urine but I licked my second finger”.

Obstacle to accurate observation

• People see and remember only what they expect to see

• Have you developed an expectation that no matter which line you get in at the bank (or grocery checkout), it will be the slowest-moving line?

Optical illusions

• Reinforce the point that we may be mistaken about what we think we see.

Optical illusions

ab=bc

Optical illusions

The tops of the two boxes are identical in size and shape

The three cylinders are all of the same size

Observation and inference

• There are many other kinds of observation errors

• They may lead to errors of reasoning

Common logical errors

• Hasty generalization

• Appeal to Unreliable Authority

• Selective observation

• Fallacies of the wrong level1. Ecological fallacy

2. Reductionism

• Spuriousness

Hasty generalization

• Generalization from a single (or a few) observation

• “There is no drug problem in our school. I have talked to 30 students from my class and none of them use drugs”

Hasty Generalization?

• Bill: "You know, those feminists all hate men." Joe: "Really?" Bill: "Yeah. I was in my philosophy class the other day and that Rachel chick gave a presentation." Joe: "Which Rachel?" Bill: "You know her. She's the one that runs that feminist group over at the Women's Center. She said that men are all sexist pigs. I asked her why she believed this and she said that her last few boyfriends were real sexist pigs. " Joe: "That doesn't sound like a good reason to believe that all of us are pigs." Bill: "She said that she had seen enough of men to know we are all pigs. She obviously hates all men.“ Joe: "So you think all feminists are like her?" Bill: "Sure. They all hate men."

Sound statement?

• “I hate those little dogs. We had a miniature poodle when I was growing up. All “little snookums” did was whine and throw up.”

Appeal to unreliable authority

• This fallacy occurs when the source cited as a reason to believe a claim is either • not actually a reliable authority, • a reliable authority on some subjects, but not the one in

question, or • is asserting a claim that is quite controversial even among

reliable authorities in the field

Appeal to unreliable authority

• “My boyfriend says I can’t get pregnant if I sneeze after having sex”

• “Dr. X is a Nobel Prize winning physicist, and he says that drinking lemonade can cure cancer”

• “I read in the National Enquirer that actress Jamie Lee Curtis is really a man”

Selective Observation

• Also called cherry picking, the enumeration of favorable circumstances (or counting the hits and forgetting the misses)

• For example, a state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent about its serial killers.

• Or, the claim "Technology brings happiness". (Now, there's something with hits and misses.)

Fallacies of the wrong level

• Ecological fallacy

• Reductionism

Ecological fallacy

• Inferences made about individuals based on information about groups are not to be trusted

Example

• “The university of Chicago produces the finest scholars in the country. John, who received his PhD from the University of Chicago, must be one of the finest scholar in the country”

Example of ecological fallacy

• For example, a researcher might examine the aggregate data on income for a neighborhood of a city, and discoverer that the average household income for the residents of that area is $30,000.

• The ecological fallacy can occur when the researcher then states, based on this data, that people living in the area earn about $30,000

Ecological fallacy (two housing estates)

Sound statement or ecological fallacy?

• Observational studies have found that countries with greater coffee consumption has lower number of heart disease

• So, everyone who drinks more coffee will have lower chance of developing heart disease

Statement is wrong

• This is wrong because there could be other plausible explanations.

• Maybe the countries with great coffee consumption only have a small portion of individuals drink coffee but they drink in ridiculously large volume

• And the other portion (the non-coffee drinking groups) which exercise regularly and consume healthy disease and this is this latter group (not the coffee drinking group) contribute to lower risk of heart disease

Reductionism• Inference about groups based on

information about individuals are not to be trusted

Example

• Each musician in Hometown Symphony is the best there is.

• Conclusion: The Hometown Symphony is the best there is

• The majority of people in country X cherish democratic ideals

• Conclusion: Country X is a democratic society

Sound statement?

• Every ingredient in this drink tastes great. Therefore, this drink will taste great.

• Ingredients: chili with cheese and onions, chocolate cake, bananas, lemonade.

Spuriousness

• Spurious relationship - a relationship that appears to exist at face value, but that disappears when you control for another variable

Spurious relationship

What is Theory?

• Theory is a set on interconnected statements of propositions that explain how two or more events or factors are related to one another

Direction of theorizing

• Two logical systems-two ways to construst a theory

• Deductive logic-(hypothesis, observations, empirical generalizations, theory)

• Inductive logic (observations, empirical generalizations, theory)

Quantitative and Qualitative• Hypothesis • Data are in the form of

numbers from precise measurement

• Theory is largely causal and deductive

• Replication is possible• Analysis proceeds by using

statistics, tables, or charts

• No hypothesis• Data are in the form of words and

images from documents, observations, and transcripts

• Theory noncausal and inductive• Replication is rare• Analysis proceeds by extracting

themes or generalizations (although numbers are possible)

Two ways to construct a theory

THEORY

HYPOTHESISFINDINGS

DATA GATHERING

RESEARCH DESIGN

Deduction

Operationalization

Measurement

Induction

Analysis