theory, history, and policy - gbvcontents preface v part i introduction to international finance 1...

INTERNATIONALFINANCE AND OPEN-ECONOMY

Theory, History, and Policy

HendrikVan den BergUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA

World ScientificNEW JERSEY • L O N D O N • S I N G A P O R E • B E I J I N G • S H A N G H A I • HONG KONG • TA IPEI • C H E N N A I

Contents

Preface v

Part I Introduction to International Finance 1

Chapter 1 Introduction 3

1.1 From War to Depression and Back to War 51.1.1 The vision of the Bretton Woods delegates 61.1.2 1 July 1944 81.1.3 The accomplishments of Bretton Woods 111.1.4 The legacy of Bretton Woods 13

1.2 The Bigger Picture 141.2.1 The gains from dealing with strangers 151.2.2 The three benefits of human interaction 17

are intertwined1.2.3 Dependence on strangers is inherently 18

problematic1.2.4 The crucial role of institutions 201.2.5 The importance of learning 22

1.3 How Humans Advance Knowledge 221.3.1 The scientific method 231.3.2 The scientific method and absolute truth 251.3.3 Economic models and the scientific method 261.3.4 Holism 28

x International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.3.51.3.6

Economics and holismHolism and science

The Field of International Finance1.4.11.4.2

Defining the fieldThe topics to be covered

Back to Bretton Woods: Some AdditionalIntroductory Comments1.5.11.5.2

Is talking to foreigners treason?Do we need another Bretton Woodsconference?

Summary and ConclusionsAppendixReferences

Chapter 2

2.1

2.2

2.3

The Balance of Payments and theMacroeconomy

Introduction2.1.12.1.2

Some observations on macroeconomicsThe legacy of Keynes

The Circular Flow Diagram2.2.1

2.2.22.2.32.2.4

The simple circular flow betweenconsumers and producersThe financial sectorGovernmentThe circular flow and economicinterdependence

Opening Up the Economy2.3.1

2.3.22.3.3

2.3.42.3.52.3.6

Extending the circular flow acrossthe borderExports and importsOutsourcing, vertical specialization,and international tradeInternational transfersAsset tradeSummarizing Foreign Transactions

293031313334

3437

404347

49

5051525353

555758

5960

6061

626364

Contents xi

2.4 The BoP 652.4.1 History of the BoP accounts 652.4.2 The split between the current account 67

and the financial account2.5 The BoP of the United States 68

2.5.1 The current account 702.5.2 The financial account 712.5.3 The capital account 732.5.4 Statistical discrepancies ~ 74

2.6 Evaluating the Recent Trends in the US BoP 762.6.1 What happened in the 1980s? 762.6.2 How long can the United States run large 78

current account deficits?2.6.3 Updating the BoP 81

2.7 The International Investment Position 812.7.1 The international investment position 81

of the United States2.7.2 The BoP and the net investment 84

position2.7.3 The effect of growing foreign debt on 84

the current account2.7.4 Dark matter 85

2.8 Summary and Conclusions 87References 91

Part II The Foreign Exchange Market 93

Chapter 3 The Foreign Exchange Market 95

3.1 Overview of Foreign Exchange Markets 963.1.1 The basics of exchange rates 973.1.2 Why foreign exchange markets matter 100

3.2 , The Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Market 1023.2.1 The early moneychangers 1033.2.2 The development of banking 1043.2.3 Fiat money and exchange rates 105

xii International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

3.3 Foreign Exchange Markets Today 1073.3.1 The over-the-counter market 1083.3.2 A 24-h worldwide market 1093.3.3 Arbitrage 1113.3.4 Geographic arbitrage in the foreign 114

exchange market3.3.5 The shift to online trading 115

3.4 A Supply and Demand Model of Foreign Exchange 1173.5 Triangular Arbitrage ' 119

3.5.1 How many foreign exchange rates are there? 1203.5.2 Triangular arbitrage 1213.5.3 Where to find exchange rates 123

3.6 Effective Exchange Rates 1233.6.1 The effective value of a currency 1243.6.2 Recent behavior of effective exchange rates 124


Chapter 4 The Interest Parity Condition 131

4.1 Intertemporal Arbitrage 1324.1.1 A simple example of intertemporal arbitrage 1334.1.2 The covered interest parity condition 1354.1.3 A more general form of the interest 137

parity condition4.1.4 A simplified version of the interest 139

parity condition4.1.5 An exercise in interest parity 140

4.2 Extending the Basic Interest Parity Model 1434.2.1 The risk premium 1434.2.2 There are many future exchange rates 1454.2.3 Foreign exchange swaps 1484.2.4 Exchange rate futures 148

4.3 Predicting Changes in the Exchange Rate 1494.3.1 The path of expected future exchange rates 1494.3.2 Rational expectations 151

Contents xiii

4.3.3 Expectations as weighted averages of 152possible outcomes

4.3.4 Future changes in exchange rates are 153unpredictable

4.3.5 Testing the "news" model 1534.3.6 Directly testing the interest parity condition 1554.3.7 Summarizing the evidence 157

4.4 Reassessing Rational Expectations 1594.4.1 Risk and uncertainty 1594.4.2 The tenuous nature of expectations 1614.4.3 A modern case study of expectations: 163

the carry trade4.5 Conclusions 165References 168

Chapter 5 Dealing with Exchange Rate Volatility: 171Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure

5.1 Exchange Rate Exposure 1725.1.1 The forms of exchange rate exposure 1735.1.2 Exchange rate volatility vs. exchange 174

rate exposure5.1.3 Hedging strategies 175

5.2 Hedging in the Forward Market 1775.2.1 An example 1775.2.2 Hedging with foreign exchange futures 179

5.3 Hedging in the Money Market 1805.3.1 An example 1805.3.2 Comparing the forward and money 181

market hedges5.4 Hedging with Options 183

5.4.1 Options contracts 1845.4.2 An example 1865.4.3 The advantages of an option 1875.4.4 Comparing the three hedges 189

5.5 Currency Swaps 1895.5.1 A first simple example of a currency swap 190

xiv International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

5.5.2 A more sophisticated example of a 191currency swap

5.5.3 Difficulties associated with currency swaps 1955.6 Net Exposure Versus Total Exposure 197

5.6.1 Only net exposure needs to be hedged 1975.6.2 Managing cash flows in different currencies 199

5.7 Hedging and Exchange Rate Pass-Through 1995.7.1 Exchange rate pass-through is often low 2005.7.2 Hedging and exchange rate volatility 201


Chapter 6 The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange 209Markets

6.1 Overview of Today's Foreign Exchange Market 2106.1.1 Geographic concentration is increasing 2116.1.2 Dominance of the US dollar 2126.1.3 A 24-h worldwide market 214

6.2 The Evolving Foreign Exchange Market 2166.2.1 Recent evolution of the market 2166.2.2 Rankings of dealer institutions 2186.2.3 Foreign exchange brokers 220

6.3 Electronic Trading 2216.3.1 The introduction of electronic 221

communications6.3.2 Electronic dealer-to-customer platforms 2226.3.3 Retail currency exchange 223

6.4 The Changing Microstructure of the 226Over-the-Counter Market6.4.1 Centralization of the market 2266.4.2 Do electronic systems imply more 227

transparency and efficiency? ,6.5 Explaining the $3 Trillion Per Day Volume 228

6.5.1 Arbitrage 2296.5.2 Hot potato process 230

Contents xv

6.5.3 Speculation 2316.5.4 Why is the foreign exchange market 232

volume so large?6.6 Corruption in the Foreign Exchange Market 232

6.6.1 Allied Irish banks lost $750 million in 2002 2336.6.2 Fraud in New York in 2003 235

6.7 Technical Analysis vs. Fundamentals 2366.7.1 How prominent is technical analysis in 237

the foreign exchange market?6.7.2 Some macroeconomic implications of 238

technical analysis6.8 Further Observations on the Efficiency of the 238

Foreign Exchange Market6.8.1 Purchasing power parity 2396.8.2 The dynamics of financial markets 241


Part III Open-Economy Macroeconomics 251

Chapter 7 The Mundell-Fleming Open-Economy 253Model

7.1 Keynes' Revolutionary Macroeconomic Model 2547.1.1 Walras' general equilibrium model 2557.1.2 The great depression and Keynes' 256

more holistic model7.2 The Basic Keynesian Macroeconomic Model 256

7.2.1 Basic elements of the closed economy 257Keynesian model

7.2.2 The consumption function 2587.2.3 The I and G functions 258

7.3 Opening the Product Market to International Trade 2617.4 The Mundell-Fleming Open-Economy Keynesian 263

Model7.4.1 The product market and the IS curve 2647.4.2 The money market and the LM curve 267

xvi International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

7.4.3 The financial account balance 2707.4.4 The current account balance 2727.4.5 The BOP curve 273

7.5 The Complete Mundell-Fleming Model 2787.5.1 The adjustment process 2807.5.2 Adjustment with pegged exchange rates 281

7.6 Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Open Economy 2837.6.1 Foreign exchange market intervention 2837.6.2 The equivalence of monetary policy and 286

exchange market intervention7.6.3 Monetary policy while pegging the exchange rates 2877.6.4 Fiscal policy with pegged exchange rates 2887.6.5 Monetary policy with floating exchange rates 2907.6.6 Fiscal policy with floating exchange rates 2927.6.7 Comparing macroeconomic policy in 293

closed and open economies7.7 Does a Depreciation Improve the Trade Balance? 295

7.7.1 The Marshall-Lerner condition 2957.7.2 Evidence on the Marshall-Lerner condition 2967.7.3 Why the Marshall-Lerner condition 297

is inaccurate7.8 Summary and Conclusions 299The Fatal Equlibrium 303References 309

Chapter 8 The Supply Side of the Economy 311

8.1 Introduction to the Supply Side of the Economy 3128.1.1 The microfoundations of aggregate supply 3138.1.2 The'sticky'labor market 3148.1.3 Wage rigidity 3158.1.4 Economic growth and aggregate supply 317

8.2 The Solow Growth Model 3188.2.1 Technological progress and factor 318

accumulation8.2.2 Increased investment causes only 323

temporary growth in output

Contents xvii

8.2.3 How can an economy achieve permanent 324growth?

8.2.4 Technological progress 3248.3 Technological Progress as Creative Destruction 327

8.3.1 Jopseph Schumpeter's creative destruction 3288.3.2 Generalizing Schumpeter's ideas 3308.3.3 Recent 'Schumpeterian' models of 332

technological progress ^8.3.4 The cost of innovation 3338.3.5 The expected gains from innovation 3348.3.6 The equilibrium level of innovative activity 3368.3.7 Summarizing the effects of growth on 337

aggregate supply8.4 Globalization and Economic Growth 338

8.4.1 Economic openness and economic growth 3398.4.2 The robustness of the trade-growth 340

relationship8.4.3 International trade and the Schumpeter model 3428.4.4 Immigration and economic growth 3458.4.5 Globalization, competition, and creative 347

destruction8.4.6 Globalization, economic growth, and 348

international finance8.5 Summary and Conclusions 349References 353

Chapter 9 The Aggregate Demand/Aggregate 355Supply Model

9.1 The Critics of the Keynesian Model 3589.1.1 The dissent of the monetarists 3589.1.2 Deceptive microfoundations 3609.1.3 Rational expectations 3629.1.4 Keynes'deeper understanding of expectations 364

9.2 Generalizing Keynes'Demand Side of the Economy 3679.2.1 The consumption function 3689.2.2 Investment demand 370

xviii International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

9.2.3 Government expenditures 3719.2.4 Net exports 3729.2.5 Aggregate demand 373

9.3 The Aggregate Demand Curve 3759.3.1 Prices and aggregate demand 3759.3.2 The monetary effect 3769.3.3 The real-balance effect 3789.3.4 The foreign trade effect 3799.3.5 Economic policies shift aggregate demand 381

9.4 Combining the Demand and Supply Sides 3839.4.1 Analyzing policy using the AD/AS model 3839.4.2 The demand side effects of moving to a or b 3849.4.3 Supply side policies to achieve full 387

employment9.4.4 Comparing the active and passive approaches 3899.4.5 Stagflation 390

9.5 Macroeconomic Management in the Long Run 3919.5.1 The AS curve in a recession 3929.5.2 Economic growth and macroeconomic 393

management9.5.3 Long-run aggregate demand and supply 396

are related9.6 Summary and Conclusions 399References 403

Part JTV The History of International Financial Policy 407

Chapter 10 Exchange Rate Crises 409

10.1 International Capital Flows: A Historical Perspective 41110.1.1 Globalization in the 19th century 41210.1.2 Between the world wars 41510.1.3 Defaults on foreign loans were a normal 416

occurrence10.1.4 The characteristics of international 417

lending before W.W.II10.1.5 Case study: Mexico's many debt defaults 417

Contents xix

10.1.6 Capital movements during the 1950-1980 420period

10.2 The 1982 Debt Crisis 42110.2.1 Oil prices and international lending 42210.2.2 The macroeconomics of international 424

investment flows10.2.3 Petrodollar recycling crashes in 1982 426

10.3 Solving the 1982 Debt Crisis 43010.3.1 Default by sovereign governments 43110.3.2 Solving the debt crisis 43210.3.3 The Brady plan 43410.3.4 The controversial role of the IMF 43510.3.5 The countries that escaped the 1982 crisis: 437

East Asia10.3.6 Did fixed exchange rates play a role? 438

10.4 The Economics of Currency Crises 43910.4.1 It is difficult to fix the exchange rates 43910.4.2 Intervention is not a long-run tool 44010.4.3 Fixed exchange rates and economic crises 44210.4.4 If policy independence is the main 443

objective10.4.5 Two dilemmas equal one trilemma 44410.4.6 Exchange rate stability and domestic 445

political priorities10.5 Summary and Conclusions 446References 450

Chapter 11 More Exchange Rate Crises 453

11.1 The Post-1982 Period 45411.2 Recent Foreign Exchange Crises 457

11.2.1 The Mexican peso crisis of 1994 45711.2.2 The Asian crisis of 1997 46011.2.3 The Korean chaebol 46211.2.4 The lesson that Asia should have learned 464

from Chile's 1982 crisis

xx International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

11.2.5 The collapse of Argentina's currency 466board in 2001

11.2.6 Common threads to the Mexican, Asian, 470and Argentine crises

11.2.7 Why the currency crises were so costly 47111.2.8 The recoveries 474

11.3 Brazil's 2004 Tightrope Walk 47511.3.1 A high government debt burden 47511.3.2 Debt dynamics 476

11.4 The Russian Crisis 47911.4.1 The Russian economy before 1990 48011.4.2 Transition 48111.4.3 Signs of hope in 1997 48211.4.4 Explaining the Russian crisis 483

11.5 Three Generations of Crisis Models 48411.5.1 First generation models 48511.5.2 Second generation models 48611.5.3 Third generation crisis models 48811.5.4 Which generation of models is most useful? 489

11.6 To Fix or to Float? 48911.6.1 Advantages of floating 49011.6.2 Advantages of fixed exchange rates 49111.6.3 The advantage goes to... 492

11.7 Can Large Reserves Defeat the Trilemma? 49311.7.1 Large reserves discourage speculation 49311.7.2 Reserve accumulation may destabilize 494

the global economy11.8 Summary and Conclusions 495References 497

Chapter 12 The International Financial System: 501The International Gold Standard,1870-1914

12.1 Comparing International Monetary Arrangements 50412.1.1 The rules of the game 504

Contents xxi

12.1.2 A framework for judging the international 505monetary system

12.2 International Finance Before the Gold Standard 50612.2.1 The origin of money 50712.2.2 Ancient financial arrangements 50812.2.3 The growing complexity of international 509

finance12.2.4 Fiat money , 511

12.3 The Origins of the Gold Standard " 51212.3.1 Why Britain established a gold standard 513

and not a silver standard12.3.2 The emergence of the International 513

Gold Standard12.4 The International Gold Standard: 1880-1914 515

12.4.1 The order of the Gold Standard 51512.4.2 The Gold Standard and exchange rates 51712.4.3 Hume's specie-flow mechanism 51912.4.4 How the Gold Standard actually worked 52012.4.5 In the long term, the rules were followed 52312.4.6 Evaluating the international Gold Standard 52512.4.7 International investment in the late 527

19th century12.4.8 Around the world with British pounds 529

12.5 The United States and the International Gold 530Standard

12.6 The Suspension of the International Gold Standard 535References 538Appendix 539

Chapter 13 The Tumultuous Interwar Period: 5471918-1940

13.1 Back to Normal After World War I? 54913.1.1 The costs of the war 55013.1.2 Reviving the gold standard under 552

changed circumstances

xxii International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

13.1.3 The Treaty of Versailles 55413.1.4 Isolationism in the United States 55713.1.5 Senator Reed Smoot, the proud 559

protectionist13.2 The Gold Standard and the Great Depression 560

13.2.1 Economic recovery under the rules of 560the game

13.2.2 The importance of US international lending 56213.2.3 Spreading the economic misery 56213.2.4 The consequences of the economics 56413.2.5 The Gold Standard mentalite as cause 565

of the Great Depression13.2.6 The end of gold 567

13.3 A New Order 56813.3.1 Brazil's unintended "Keynesian" recovery 56913.3.2 Reversing the financial chaos 57113.3.3 Individual country actions to restore order 57213.3.4 International cooperation: the Tripartite 574

Agreement13.4 Assessing the Gold Standard During the Interwar 575

Period13.4.1 The trilemma between the wars 576

References 579

Chapter 14 Bretton Woods to the Present 583

14.1 The Extraordinary Bretton Woods Conference 58414.1.1 The motivation for Bretton Woods 58514.1.2 Designing the institutions to shape the 586

world economy14.1.3 The details of the Bretton Woods order 58814.1.4 Capital controls 591

14.2 The Early Years of Bretton Woods 59214.2.1 The Marshall Plan - 59314.2.2 The Marshall Plan in Germany 59414.2.3 The US dollar assumes a special role 596

Contents xxiii

14.2 A The performance of the Bretton Woods 597system

14.2.5 The world economy outgrows the 598Bretton Woods system

14.2.6 The collapse of the Bretton Woods system 60114.2.7 Evaluating the Bretton Woods system 603

14.3 After Bretton Woods 60414.3.1 Meetings, but no agreement 60414.3.2 Surprising volatility 60514.3.3 The Plaza and Louvre Accords 60614.3.4 Do floating exchange rates decrease 609

international trade?14.3.5 Evaluating the post-Bretton Woods period 609

14.4 The Bretton Woods Institutions 61214.5 Summary and Conclusions 614References 620Appendix 622

Chapter 15 The Euro and the European Union 627

15.1 Seeking Exchange Rate Stability After Bretton Woods 62815.1.1 The snake in the tunnel 62915.1.2 The EMS: a mini-Bretton Woods 62915.1.3 The incompatibility of economic policies, 630

again15.1.4 Seeking a more durable alternative to 633

the EMS15.1.5 Establishing the monetary union 633

15.2 History of the European Union 63515.2.1 The early stages of European economic 636

integration15.2.2 The growth and maturization of the EEC 64015.2.3 Recent expansion 64215.2.4 A European constitution 644

15.3 Optimum Currency Areas 64515.3.1 MundelPs examples 646

xxiv International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

15.3.2 The costs of multiple currencies 64815.3.3 The optimum number of currencies 64915.3.4 The criteria for an optimum currency 652

area (OCA)15.3.5 Is the United States an OCA? 652

15.4 Evaluating the European Union 65315.4.1 Trade effects of the EMU 65515.4.2 Are business cycles synchronized with a 656

single currency area?15.4.3 Inflationary or unemployment bias? 65715.4.4 Factor mobility 65815.4.5 A first report card for 2001-2007 66015.4.6 The euro after the 2008 financial crisis 661


Part V International Financial Issues 673

Chapter 16 Foreign Direct Investment and 675Multinational Enterprises

16.1 Foreign Direct Investment 67616.1.1 Peculiarities of FDI 67716.1.2 Growth of FDI 67816.1.3 FDI creates MNEs 67816.1.4 Vertical and horizontal FDI 68116.1.5 The history of MNEs 68216.1.6 MNEs and international trade 68616.1.7 MNEs and the spread of technology 68816.1.8 MNEs are controversial 68916.1.9 A final note on FDI data 690

16.2 The Theory of Multinational Enterprises and FDI 69016.2.1 Internalizing transactions costs 69016.2.2 Economies of scale 69216.2.3 Keeping core competencies in house 69316.2.4 Exploiting reputations 69416.2.5 Jumping trade barriers 69416.2.6 Avoiding taxes and regulations 695

Contents xxv

16.2.7 Hedging exchange rate exposure 69616.2.8 MNE as a diversified portfolio 69616.2.9 Diversifying business risk 69716.2.10 Reducing competition 69716.2.11 Enhancing innovative success 69816.2.12 Summarizing the reasons for the growth 698

of MNEs16.3 Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor 699

Countries?16.3.1 FDI is different 69916.3.2 What is the role of FDI in transferring 701

technology?16.3.3 What do we really know about technology 703

transfers?16.4 Some Final Comments on Multinational Enterprises 705

16.4.1 Is FDI less volatile than other capital flows? 70516.4.2 FDI and global economic integration 70716.4.3 Drucker's hypothesis 70716.4.4 MNEs and policy independence 70916.4.5 MNEs and national sovereignty 71016.4.6 A dramatic example of the impact of 711

foreign direct investment16.5 Summary and Conclusions 713References 716

Chapter 17 International Investment, International 719Banking, and InternationalFinancial Markets

17.1 The Rapid Growth and Diversification of 721International Investment17.1.1 Shifts in the ranks of the financial MNEs . 72117.1.2 A financial sector in turmoil 724

17.2 The Eurocurrency Markets - 72417.2.1 Origins of the eurocurrency markets 72517.2.2 Offshore banking centers 72717.2.3 Financial innovation 729

xxvi International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

17.3 The Economic Role of the Financial Sector 72917.3.1 Failure is a constant in the financial sector 73017.3.2 A model of the financial sector 73117.3.3 Extending the analysis to the whole economy 733

17.4 Market Failures in the Financial Sector 73417.4.1 Default 73517.4.2 Case study: contract enforcement in Taiwan 73517.4.3 Enforceable contracts do not solve all 737

market failures17.4.4 Asymmetric information and adverse selection 73817.4.5 One more problem: Moral hazard 74017.4.6 Government regulation to solve the 741

information problem17.4.7 Collateral: another role for government 74217.4.8 Financial intermediaries also have 744

bad incentives17.5 Portfolio Investment 744

17.5.1 Defining portfolio investment 74557.S.2 International equity markets 74617.5.3 ADRs make foreign stock look like a 747

domestic asset17.5.4 The globalization of over-the-counter 748

financial markets17.5.5 Then, in 2008, a global collapse! 749

17.6 Changing Institutions: The Growth of Islamic Finance 75117.6.1 What is Islamic finance? 75117.6.2 Sharing risk under sharia law 75217.6.3 The future of Islamic finance 754


Chapter 18 The 2008 Financial Collapse and 761Recession: Is It Time for a New BrettonWoods Conference?

18.1 A Picture of the 2008 Crisis 76218.2 Deregulation and Innovation 767

Contents xxvii

18.2.1 The Glass-Steagall Act 76718.2.2 Globalization and financial deregulation 76918.2.3 The great monetary expansion 77018.2.4 From financial crisis to recession 77218.2.5 Fiscal stimulus and financial reform 774

18.3 Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis 77518.3.1 The three categories of finance 77518.3.2 Minsky's second theorem 77718.3.3 Keynes' description of long-term expectations 77918.3.4 The separation of finance and investment 78018.3.5 Back to the 2008 financial collapse 78318.3.6 Keynes, Minsky, and rational exspectations 78418.3.7 Some further observations on the 2008 785

financial crisis18.4 Reforming the International Financial System 788

18.4.1 Dealing with the 2008 recession 78818.4.2 Restoring financial regulation and oversight 79118.4.3 Reforming the international financial system 79318.4.4 Some new proposals 796

18.5 Back to Keynes 79818.5.1 Why Keynes got it right 80018.5.2 Social norms 80018.5.3 Further research in psychology and 801

neuroscience18.6 Summary and Conclusions 804

18.6.1 Summary 80418.6.2 The legacy of Keynes 806

References 810

Index 813

theory, history, and policy - gbvcontents preface v part i introduction to international finance 1...

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