theory of predicting crop response to non-limiting nitrogen

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Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

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Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen. What do N Rich Strips Say About N Rate Algorithms? + Quite a Bit of Geostatistics. What do N Rich Strips Say About N Rate Algorithms? – Part II, with a little geostatistics. Nitrogen Rich Strip. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Page 2: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

What do N Rich Strips Say About N Rate Algorithms? + Quite a Bit of Geostatistics

Page 3: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

What do N Rich Strips Say About N Rate Algorithms? – Part II,

with a little geostatistics

Page 4: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Nitrogen Rich Strip

Apply one Non-Limiting Nitrogen strip across the field between preplant fertilization and shortly after emergence. Use this as a reference strip to determine N rate.

Concept first proposed in 1994by Dr. James Schepers

Page 5: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

NRich (N Reference) Strip Enables Paired Comparison of Field Practice N Fertility and

Non-Limiting N FertilityPaired sampling of N Rich and Field Rate NDVI

from either IKONIS or GreenSeeker imagery

Measure Nrich NDVI and calculate expected yield

Measure Field Rate NDVI

Fp

NRichNDVI NDVI

NDVIRI

Page 6: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

How Should We Interpret RINDVI

• In 2007, we examined RINDVI indirectly by transforming the data to potential yield

• This year, I will examine RINDVI directly and compare measured RI to RI predicted by the OSU algorithm

• The goal of this is to:– Better understand the relationship between FpNDVI

and RINDVI

– provide a method for evaluating algorithms based on measured paired comparisons of vegetative growth through part of the season

Page 7: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Model of RINDV for three crops and 6,216 data points

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

FpNDVI

RI N

DVI

A0 = 81A1 = 13.25A2 = 1.426R2 = 0.7624

FpNDVI1AcoshFpNDVI0ARI

2A

1Fp

RILim

0NDVI

NDVI

1Fp

RILim

1NDVI

NDVI

Page 8: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

RI Model for WheatMarshall - GreenSeeker

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FpNDVI

RI N

DVI

FpNDVI1AcoshFpNDVI0ARI

2A

A0 = 21.4A1 = 8.5A2 = 1.19R2 = 0.767

Miller IKONIS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Fp NDVI

RI N

DVI

FpNDVI1AcoshFpNDVI0ARI

2A

A0 = 33.75A1 = 9.6A2 = 1.41R2 = 0.250

Page 9: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Wheat RI Model from Experimental Data

Lahoma 2006

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FpNDVI

RI N

DVI

Lahoma 2005

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

FpNDVIR

I ND

VI

RI DataPowerCosh

Lahoma 2004

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Fp NDVI

RI N

DVI

Page 10: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Location and Year Effects on RI

RI NDVI Curves Wheat - 3 Years at Two Locations

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Fp NDVI

RI N

DVI

Lahoma2004Lahoma2005Lahoma2006Efaw2003Efaw 2004Efaw 2005

Page 11: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Comparison of RI Curves Constructed from NRich Strips and Field Experiments

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Fp NDVI

RI N

DVI

NRich StripsNRich StripField ExptsField Experiments

Page 12: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

RI NDVI Corn Model Calculated from Field Averages of FpNDVI and NRich NDVI

Field Average RI - Corn at 20 Locations/Years

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FpNDVI

RI N

DVI

Model RI

RI Measured R2 = 0.9117

Page 13: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

NDVI

Yiel

d, M

g/ha

Yield Potential Model for All Crops Wheat Data Shown in Graph

NDVIbeaYld

Page 14: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Field Rate NDVI

Pote

ntia

l Yie

ld, M

g/ha

YP0YPN = RINDVI YP0YPN = YPmaxSoil/Crop DivideRI/YPmax Divide

Yield with additional N predicted by Response Index

Yield increase with additional N limited to the maximum potential yield

Response Index Theory for Fertilizer N Response

ttanConsRIYPNRIYPN

NDVI

NDVI

maxYPYPN

NDVI

2aNDVI

NDVI Fp1acoshFp0aRI

Page 15: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Comparing RI NDVI Model to OSU Model

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FpNDVI

RI N

DVI

RIOSU AlgorithmNew RI Model?

Page 16: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Comparison of OSU Topdress Rate to RI NDVI Model Topdress Rate

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.80

10

20

30

40

50

60OSU Alg Topdress RateNew TD Rate

FpNDVI

N A

ppl.

Rat

e, k

g/ha

?

Page 17: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Measure of undetermined small scale variability and sampling error.

Semivariogram

Distance “range” where data is spatially related.

Overall sample variance.

Indication of spatial strength.

Region where samples remain correlated (i.e. integral scale) or region of high relatednessIntegral

Scale

Page 18: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Results Intermediate Scale Sensing or SamplingData Type Date Nugget Nugget:Sill Range

(m)Lag Size

(m)Lag No.

IntegralScale (m)

Model Error (RMSS)

Model Error(SME)

Yield (bu/acre) 2005 4.636 0.06 24 3.5 7 5.4 1.02 0.00381

Yield (bu/acre) 2006 0 0 24 3.5 7 5.6 0.77 0.00243

Yield (bu/acre) 2007 0 0 22 3.4 7 5.3 1.08 0.00543

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 18-Dec-04 0 0 12 0.7 17 3.8 1.91 0.00028

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 17-Mar-06 0.001 0.62 43 5.4 8 4.5 0.97 -0.00540

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 6-Apr-06 0.005 0.58 72 8.1 9 6.2 0.92 -0.00381

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 4-Mar-07 0.003 0.26 9 1.2 8 3.0 0.95 -0.00021

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 1-Mar-08 0.006 0.58 30 4.7 8 4.0 0.87 -0.00121

NDVIGreenSeeker™ 16-Mar-08 0.010 0.57 30 4.7 7 4.0 0.91 -0.00250

Soil Test NO3-N0-15cm 15-Aug-06 1.200 0.85 181 26.0 7 5.9 1.00 0.00069

Soil Test NO3-N15-30cm 15-Aug-06 0.191 0.82 174 22.0 8 6.3 1.00 -0.00975

Soil Test P 15-Aug-06 0.041 0.48 168 19.0 9 10.5 1.01 -0.01894

Soil Test K 15-Aug-06 0.011 0.46 150 19.0 8 10.1 1.01 0.00416

Soil Test pH 15-Aug-06 0.147 0.36 168 19.0 9 11.7 0.98 0.01491

Soil Test TSS 15-Aug-06 0.068 0.84 158 20.0 8 5.7 1.00 0.00475

Soil Test OM 15-Aug-06 0.012 0.36 158 20.0 8 11.3 0.92 0.00010

Soil ECVeris 0-30cm 2005 0.002 0.04 35 5.0 7 6.5 0.79 -0.00004

Soil ECVeris 0-91cm 2005 0 0 42 6.0 7 7.3 0.80 -0.00005

Page 19: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Recommendations for Measuring RI NDVI• Pair your farmer practice treatment and your NRich

treatments in your experiment design or (in the case of statistical purists) insert an extra farmer practice treatment which is paired with your NRich treatments.

• To maximize spatial relatedness, your sensor measurements from the two treatments should be spaced no more than three to four meters apart.

• At greater distances, relatedness declines and variability (error) in the value of RI increases.

• Remember that beyond the range measurements can be highly related by chance. Between the integral scale and the range, the odds of the measurements being highly related declines rapidly.

Page 20: Theory of Predicting Crop Response to Non-Limiting Nitrogen

Conclusions• Paired comparisions between field N rate and non-

limiting N rate along an NRich strip define the relationship between the existing and optimum N application rate.

• All algorithms purporting to determine N application rate must account for the relationships between FpNDVI and NRich NDVI defined by the NRich strip.

• These relationships vary from year to year and location to location.

• The Power/Cosh model appears to accurately predict the NDVI Response Index as a function of FpNDVI.