thermal soaring forecasting · definitions boundary or mixing layer the zone of the atmosphere near...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Thermal Soaring Forecasting
Michael F. Stringfellow
![Page 2: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
IntroductionThermals
Columns of warm air that rise from the ground when heated by the sun
SoaringSustained engineless flight using natural sources of lift
![Page 3: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
DefinitionsBoundary or mixing layer
The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur
Lapse RateFall of air temperature with altitude
Dew PointTemperature at which moisture vapor in the air condenses
Skew-T ChartFancy diagram used by meteorologists to plot lapse rate and relative humidity
![Page 4: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Making ThermalsConditions for thermals
Sun heats the groundLittle cloud coverDry soil
Pools of warm air can formLight winds or shelter
Thermal triggersMechanical disturbance (man-made or natural)
Hot air near the ground has buoyancyAir above is lighter (cooler or drier)
![Page 5: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Thermal CharacteristicsWhen triggered, hot air risesIf surrounding air is lighter, thermal continues risingThermal stops when it reaches temperature of surroundingsThermal strength depends on difference of temperature between it and surrounding air
Thermal Index
![Page 6: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Thermal ForecastingEstimate solar heating of ground
Cloud coverTime of year/day
Estimate lapse rate and dew point of airActual and forecast soundingsStrength of thermalsBoundary layer depth (top of thermals)
![Page 7: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Forecasting ToolsNational Weather ServiceNOAADr. Jack’s BlipmapsSoaring forecasts
![Page 8: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Forecasts from Soundings
-3 TI at 7,500 feet
![Page 9: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How I Forecast ThermalsCheck actual and forecast weather
Weather Service, WebcamsCheck satellite maps
Visible, Infrared and water vaporCheck Blipmaps
Thermal strength, top-of-the lift, buoyancy/shear ratio, cumulus prediction
Check Forecast SoundingsTemperature, winds lapse rate, inversions, cloudbase, convective potential etc.
![Page 10: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Soaring Forecast PageSeven main sub pages for forecasting:
Current WeatherForecast WeatherBlipmaps & BlipspotsMike the Strike’s ForecastWeek’s Soaring ForecastWeather LinksWebcams
![Page 11: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 1
Thermal StrengthPredicted average net thermal strengthSubtract glider minimum sink rate to estimate actual rate of climbRemember thermals will vary from weak to strong
![Page 12: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 2
Top of the liftHcrit is top of the lift experienced by a glider in feet MSLUsually at the –3 TI point on the Skew-T chart
![Page 13: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 3
Boundary Layer Depth
Height of thermals above the ground in feetRemember you won’t usually get this high in a glider
![Page 14: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 4
Cumulus PotentialChance of thermal-generated cumulus clouds
![Page 15: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 5
Overdevelopment Potential
Chance for showers and thunderstormsUsually not good when too high!
![Page 16: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Reading Blipmaps - 6
Buoyancy/Shear Ratio
Indicates chance of thermals blowing apart in windLess likely with strong thermals or weak winds>5 is usually OK<5 thermals broken
![Page 17: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Reading Blipspots
Data for 2 PM Local
![Page 18: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Reading Skew-T Charts
Atmospheric Pressure
Wind Speed & Direction
Predicted Air Temperature
Predicted Dew Point
Temperature
![Page 19: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Interactive Skew-T (Arizona)
Predicted Parcel Motion
Predicted Cloud Base
Convective Potential Energy
Boundary Layer Top
![Page 20: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Interactive Skew-T (Arizona)
Top of the Lift(5,600 ft)
Stable Air
![Page 21: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Interactive Skew-T (Florida)
Top of Lift (28,000 feet)
Unstable Air
![Page 22: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
NOAA’s Ready Forecast Tools
![Page 23: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
NOAA Ready Menu
![Page 24: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
READY RUC Sounding Menu
![Page 25: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
READY RUC Sounding Result
![Page 26: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Ready Interactive Map Menu
![Page 27: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Resulting Map of Arizona
![Page 28: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Boundary Layer Height
7845 Ft
2450 meters
![Page 29: Thermal Soaring Forecasting · Definitions Boundary or mixing layer The zone of the atmosphere near the ground where thermals occur Lapse Rate Fall of air temperature with altitude](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042807/5f7759b6e0631a624f36e87a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SummaryCheck forecast weather
SunCloudWindsMaximum temperatureSatellite images
Check Blipmaps & Blipspots
Thermal strengthTop of LiftCumulusBuoyancy/Shear
Check SoundingsFSL InteractiveNOAA Ready
Check TrendsHigh pressure building?Dry air moving in?
Watch the skyDo conditions match the forecast?Check temperatures