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TRANSCRIPT
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ABSTRACT
The objective of this research was to find out the impact of discount rate
and stock prices on long term loan. For analysis, a sample of 15 listed banks
was taken out of 30. In this research, variables data was taken from the period
of 2006-2010. Multiple regression technique was used to analyze the
relationship between discount rate and stack prices on long term loan. A
positive relation was found between discount rate and stock prices on long
term loan. This study would help investor in investing because they wouldhave a clear picture about firm stock price. I the firm stock price would
increase than investor would encourage invest/borrow from that firm. This
study is also showing that discount rate and stock prices are the key factors
for long term loans.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgements .ii
Abstractiii
List of tables.v
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .1
1.1 Overview 11.2 1.2 Problem Statement ..21.3 Hypotheses ............2CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 3CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ..9
3.1 Source of Date 9
3.2 Sample Size ..9
3.3 Explanations of the Variables 9
3.4 Hypothesis Development 10
3.5 The Regression Model10
3.6 Statistical Tool to be used 10
Chapter 4: Results & Analysis..11
4.1 Variables ..11
4.2 Model11
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION and Recommendation15
5.5 Conclusion 14
5.2 Recommendation and Future analysis 15
REFERENCES ..17
Appendix ..20
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LIST OF TABLE
Table 4.1 Variables Enter/Removed 11
Table 4.2 Model Summary...12
Table 4.3 ANOVA12
Table 4.4 Coefficients...13
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 1
CHAPTER 01: INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEWBanks are playing an important role in certain social and benevolent
matter. Banks lead from a small shop to huge corporate firms and
multinationals. The banking has influenced all walks of life and this
influence is constantly increasing. The business of banks is going to grow
quickly in coming days. Banks would be focusing at entering new fields of
business and trade. Banks can play efficient role in nation building process.
On behalf of a government a central bank flaws funds and perform as its
financial power by applying monetary policy, which regulates the money
supply.
Discount rates & stock price play an important role in the banking sectors.
The discount rate is an interest rate a central bank charges depository
institutions that borrow reserves from it. Many researchers believe that if
there is decrease in the discount rates it would encourage the investors to
increase their borrowing and if there is increase in the discount rates it
would discourage the investors to decrease their borrowing because it
would affect the cost of capital of the companies, when there is increase of
money in the market SBP lower the discount rate and when there is
decrease of money in the market SBP lower the discount rate. This is the
general phenomena. The rate is set on the basis of market condition by
SBP.
A commercial bank accept deposits and pools those funds to supply credit,
either directly by lending, or indirectly by investing through the capital
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 2
markets. Inside the global financial markets, these institutions join those
members who have insufficient capital to invest are given fund by those
members who have sufficient funds. This is the main task Of theseinstitutions. Who have excess finances to advance (financial assets) to
those parties who borrow finances to advance in real assets.
During the past year, the Federal Reserve System, before the appearance of
new financial markets, the discount rate was the key tool of monetary
policy. Discount rate only in contemporary times than open market
operations conducted by banks is less effective in controlling the amount of
reserves. Banks make use of reserves from the SBP for causes missing from
the discount rate significance a higher or lower discount rate might have
very small impact on treasury and the funds supply. Banks normally have
less funds could borrow reserves on discount rate from SBP,
This research helps the (borrowers or investors) to increase or decrease
their investment according to discount rates & stock price of the bank and
it would also helps state bank of Pakistan to offer discount rates according
to the situation. The purpose of this research is to find out the reliability of
discount rates & stack price as the predictor of banking sector in Pakistan
the relationship between and why changes in discount rates & stock price
can create great impact on banking sector.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 4
CHAPTER 02: LITERATURE REVIEW
Open market operation is also the one of the most important
activity. Which can forever offer liquidity to the monetary scheme,
except how can that liquidity be measure to individual firm in a crises
situation? Good friend and king (1988) argue that the monitory power
ought to not at all provide loans to individual banks since private
lenders can superlative recognize in the money but illiquid
establishments. Open market operation composes an enough policy
response to all examples of financial illiquidity, merely but privatecredit markets carry on functioning well, still for the duration of an
emergency. Sometimes government or the central bank should act as
lender of last resort (LLR), and government must provide liquidity to
individual banks which cannot raise fund in private market. Good hart
(1988) have made conclusion on the fact that mostly banks specializes
in financing assets which are essentially difficult to value.
Concentration of illiquid bank solvency problem that is convincing
private lenders, credit LLR normal version that should give rise to
solvents, illiquid but banks can. The complexity of course lies in
shaping which illiquid banks are in the money. The government may
have improved information concerning banks solvency than market
investors have, the most favorable societal strategy might be for the
central bank to let somebody borrow in a straight line to illiquid
institutions. Kaufman (1991) passionately gives your support to this
sight that a central bank should bound its lender of last resort tricks to
make available common market liquidity throughout open market
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 5
process. According to these author LLR individual banks to expand
credit default risk (social investment) that the central bank to help
insolvent institutions will bow down, Thus blunting market disciplineand riskier, less efficient banks production. The essential condition of
government involvement in credit markets in not means that private
markets are doing a worst job, but the government could perform well.
Except that the government has better information about individual
banks solvency. It is not easy to defend the intention that a government
LLR should put out of place private credit decisions and evaluation
during a crisis. It is extremely essential to difference this analysis of the
suitable fed discount rate with Bagehots classical analysis that within
and emergency the central bank should lend without restraint, however
at consequence rate. But the SBP put a penalty rate on credit for the
duration of my sort of monetary emergency, this might be bear a
winners blight in comparison among private lenders, potentially rising
its rate of participation. In an emergency, the Federal Reserve must
position set to support financially credit in order to keep away from the
winners curses that administer private loan pricing decision. Except we
consider that private banks and investors routinely make bad lending
value assessment, there is small require for unsaved discount window
loans during normal time. While credit markets are implementation
fine, the LLRs only benefit lies into its skill to give good quality finances
extra rapidly than the concerned bank can lift up them by asset
transaction or secret borrowing. though, such move forward have to be
reserved very short term following which a solvent bank should be
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capable to put up for sale asset or safe funding from private lenders. But
for the discount window proprietor is unspecified to be familiar with
additional concerning a banks proper form than the market does, so
there is no cause to expand loans for very long (Flannery.J, 1996) the
associating between two ranking of lifetime earnings is based on the
logic of human capital theory it include that the present.Values of
lifetime earnings are computed using the discount rate applied by
individuals when making their labor market choice, further, inequalities
will come into view when higher or lower discount rates are used. (Sue,
H.K, 1985) the discount rate has long been recognized as critical fordetermining the well-organized allocation of an exhaustible resource. It
is found that, over the (real) discount rate range of 6% to 9% the
welfare suffers of employing a rate no more than 3% different from the
social rate are small and decline as the social rate rises, even for severe
supply situation. (Johns, 1990) this approach appears commanding in
terms of simplifying compound capital budgeting by placing only weak
limitations on allowable liking, very simple cash flow uniqueness are
used in this paper to select most-preferred projects for any individual
within the genera class. Assuming that discount rates are positive and
steady over time, 26 out of 30 equally exclusive projects could straight
away be disregarded by every individual, despite of what specific value
is taken on by this discount rate (Bohren & Terje, 1980) the common
perception is that commercial banks borrowing short and lending long,
said the sharp increases in market interest rates, a significant number
of banking failures may bring on. And effectively to major with similar
average maturities of asset and liability portfolios of credit risk against
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 6
the market rate is hedged. (Flannery. J, 1981) financial information
must be conveyed to bank by the borrowers. Special audit is required
for loan contract and the evaluation of assets used as collateral.Moreover the borrower usually in legal costs for setting up the loan
agreement requires the bank back. Their borrowing costs by setting up
a transaction specific investment. The existence of transaction costs in
the credit markets a specific agreements or commitments under long-
term incentive to make offers. Loan agreement requires substantial
investment.(James, 1982) disputes relating to the implications of budget
constraints, most of the revenue effect concerns the sign and magnitude.
Very little emphasis has been placed on interest rates has been
analyzing the impact. Most writers have simply assumed that interest
rates will increase with government deficit spending, when the bond
demand decrease and bond supply increase than the interest rate will
increase with an increase in expected inflation. Similarly when
unemployment rate increases then both, supply and demand of private
bonds must fall. Therefore the impact of cyclical activity on interest
rates in quite ambiguous. Impact of government borrowing on interest
rates should be positive course. Purchase of government securities by
the fed loan able funds and liquidity for the effects of normal offset,
(Hoelscher. P, 1983) new with this reduction in treasury debt, federal
agency debt has increased significantly. Federal agency debt market,
government agencies or government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs),
congressionally designated by congress chartered mission consists of
securities issued by institutions with are required. Period between 1996
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 7
and 2000 the percent of total loans 9.6 GSEs, the federal debt to 76
percent to $ 1.7 trillion from $ 896 billion during refused (1 structure,
see figure).agency debt market size in 2007 by Fleming notes (2000),treasury market may leave behind. Federal home loan bank system
(FHLB) includes twelve member banks that were made in 1932 by an
act that contains and it gives short and long term loans to its associate.
Federal home loan banks to fund the work of local lenders that finance
home mortgage loan are to increase supply. Twelve district banks as a
whole and their member institutions are owned by problem loans
combined commitment. At the end of 2000, FHLB issue discount bonds
and notes stood at 1.05 trillion dollars. The treasury department is
certified to purchase FHLB securities. W. (Ambrose, T.D, 2002) several
Observations are immediate. First the relatively large size of the stock,
the difference between 3% and 12% of the solution. Second, depletion
of the major changes occurs when a low discount rate instead of a
higher discount rate is increased by the amount of increase of one
percentage point. This is partly because each percentage point increases
in the discount rate- the ratio of a higher discount rate. Third a low
discount rate is greater, 9% to 12% rage for the discount rate on
consumption remarkably similar. (John. R, 1990) shows that as stated,
the study found that the quality of bank loans, the examiners decisions
are correct, so you know, stock prices should affect the rating of 25
private banks, although not perfect, that bank stock prices reflect
changes in banks current ranking of 15 months beyond the original
changes. Consequently, the disclosure of classified information about
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 8
important and relevant to investors can not; inasmuch as the ratings of the
information has already been discounted by the market. (Helm, H-K.W, 1984)this study analyzes each of these disclosures for in formation about future
bank cash flows and inspected how investors take away this information in
bank stock prices. Commercial bank loan portfolio are usually 10 to 15 times
bigger than bank equity therefore bank loan portfolio cash flows and default
risks are liable to have an important impact on bank stock market values.
Bank financial statements provide three separate disclosures of changing
default risks: nonperforming loans, loan loss provisions and loan charge offs
(Nishimura kazoo, G.S, 1994). For loans in the secondary debt market is
composed of two types. First primary, or syndicated credit market, which is
part of a loan, often with a large number of banks, is placed with, and as part
of the loan process started (normally known as the sale of Participations),
other types of experience, or secondary, in which a bank loan sales market as
a result of closing an existing debt (or part of the loan) is sold. Experience
credit for the sale of a number of reasons have been identified in previous
literature, there are those borrowers whose loans or credit on sales return on
sales, banks no empirical effect of such sales has been studied (Sandeep
Dahiya, M.P, 2003).
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 9
CHAPTER 03: REASEARCH METHODS
This chapter explains the methodology used for this research study. The
study focuses on the impact of discount rate and stock price on long term
loans. Methodology is the important part of the research because it can solve
problems and discover new knowledge.
3.1 Method of Date Collection:
Secondary data is used in the research. This study is based on the
financial data of five years from 2006 to 2010 and 15 banks data is collected
that was listed on KSE 100 index. The main source of data is the state bank of
Pakistan website and KSE website.
3.2 Sample Size:
This study focused on the long term loans, discount rate and stock price
since last five years of the date.
3.3 Explanation of Variables:
In this section we present the description of these variables, how they
are measured and what empirical evidence was found by previous studies.
3.3.1 Long Term Loans (Dependent Variable):
Long term loans are the dependent variable of the research. The long
term loans data is collected from the 15 banks annual report. In annual
reports the loan term loans is already calculated.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 10
3.3.2 Independent Variables:
There are two independent variables in the research stock price and
discount rate.
3.3.2.1 Stock Price:
The yearly stock price data was collected from the KSE website.
3.3.2.2 Discount Rate:
Discount rate data is collected from state bank of Pakistan website
(Handbook of statistics on Pakistan economy) from the list of federal
government revenue receipts.
3.4 Hypotheses Development:
H1: stock price has an impact on the long term loans.
H2: discount rate has an impact on the long term loans.
3.5 The Regression Model:
Long term loans (LTL) =0+ 1 (Stock price) + 2 (discount rate) +
3.6 Statistical Tools to be used:
In the research multi linear regression is used because there are more
than two scale variables and in the research articles multi linear regression
was used.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 12
Table 4.2
Model Summaryb
Model R R square
Adjusted R
square
Std. error of
the estimate
1 483a .233 .210 37704836.50
a. Predictors: (Constant), Stock prices, discount rateb. Dependent Variable: long-term
Adjusted R square shows that only 21% of variation in the dependent
variable is explained by the predictors variables named discount rate and
stock price. Adjusted R square should be at least 45% or greater but 21%
shows very weak explanation. R square shows that 23.3% of the variations
in dependent variable (Long term loan) are explained by the mode.
Sig. F value shows the overall significance of the model and Fig. value
is.000 which shows that the model is significant because the value of sig.
should be less than 0.05 for model significance.
Table 4.3
Anovab
Model
Sum of
squares df
Mean
square F
Sig.
1
Regression
Residual
Total
2.893E16
9.525E16
1.242E17
2
67
69
1.447E16
1.422E1510.175 .000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Stock prices, discount rateb. Dependent Variable: Long-term
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 13
The Sig value is 0.000 which is lower than the 00.5 to be accepted
as a mode. This shows that the model is significant and it tells thatindependent variables consistently predict the dependent variable. And
the F value is 10.175 this is greater than the minimum cutoff point 3.84.
Therefore F value is significant. And this shows short term impact of
discount rate and stock price on long-term loans.
TABLE 4.4
Coefficientsa
Model
Understand Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
T Sig.B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant)
Discount rate
Stock prices
-2857932.89
5463882.883
290265.421
3025978.78
2669208.110
67858.367
.221
.463
-.944
2.047
4.278
.348
.045
.000
Stock price sig. value is 0.000 and discount rate sig. value is 0.045
indicating that both are significant because both are less than the 0.05.
The T values of Stock price and discount rate are 4.278 and 2.047
respectively. Both the values are positive which shows positive
relationship between the stock price and discount rate with long-term
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loans. It means that when discount rate and stock price increases then the
long term loans will also increase. It can also be described as when the
stock price of banks will increase the investors/companies should go for
the long term loan.
Finally the equation which derives from analyzes is:
Long term loans (LTL) = .28572932.89 + 5463882.883 (Discount Rate) +290265.421 (Stock price) +
The above noted equation shows following conclusion:
One percent increase in discount rate will increase the long term loans by5463882.883 Rs.
One rupee (Rs) increase in stock price will increase the long term loans by290265.421 Rs.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 15
CHAPTER 05: CONCLUSION, DISCUSSIONS,
IMPLICAIONTS, LIMITATION, FUTURE RESEARCH
The objective of this study was to find out the relationship between
discount rate and stock prices on long terms loan. This was done for a
period of five years (2006 through 2010). It was based on a sample of
publicly quoted companies in the Pakistan.
The empirical findings suggested that there is a positive relationship
between discount rate and stock prices on long terms loan.
The table 3 shows the summary output for the regression analysis. The R
square shows that 23.3% of the variations in the dependent variable (Long
term Loan) is explained by the mode. The F-statistics shows the validity of
the model as its 10.175 at the level of significance value 0.000.
From table 5 it can be seen that all the variables shows the same
relationship as expected at 5 % level of significance. Analyzing the results
for the effects of independent variable on dependent variable, it was found
that the variable discount rate is positively correlated with long term loan
with (=0.221). This suggested when ever increased in the discount rate
would increase in the long term loan and vice versa, the statistical
significance also support hypothesis. Therefore first hypothesis is
accepted.
The second variable stock prices is also positively correlated with long
term loan (=463). This suggested that whenever increased in the stock
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 16
Prices causes to increase the investors will go for it. Because investors
know that this firm is more stable because it stock price. In increasing
.therefore second hypothesis is also accepted. Future research may beincluded other variables which can influence long-term loan. Long-term
loan is the most important variable for the banks. This variable is included
in the advances section and banks earn profit though advances.
Future research
Several conclusions could easily be taken out from the current profitability
profile of the banking industry in Pakistan. It is good to observe that the
banking industry of the country continues to be rising regardless of the
particular sector was the worst hit by the global recession starting in 2007.
In us and western Europe, where governments had to force in billions of
dollars to save the banking system from total fall down, the financial sector
in Pakistan contributed to the government exchequer fairly a lot.
These results were varying because in various countries, there was
difference in environments, political, economical and circumstances and
firms usually made decision accordingly. Other variables can also affect
long-term loans of banks.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 17
REFERENCES
Ambrose, T.D. (2002). GSE debt and the decline in the treasury debt
market. Journal of money. Credit and banking, 34 (3), 812-839.
Flannery, M.J. (1981). Market interest rates and commercial bankprofitability: an empirical investigation. The journal of finance, 36(5), 1085-1101.
Helms H.-K.W. (1984). Confidential bank examination data and theefficiency of bank share prices. Financial analystsjournal,40(6), 31-33.
Hoelscher, G.P. (1983). Federal borrowing and short term interest rates.Southern economic journal, 50(2), 319-333.
James, C.(1982). An analysis of bank loan rate indexation. The journal offinance, 37(3), 809-825.
John, R. (1990). Using the wrong discount rate to allocate an exhaustibleresources.American journal of agricultural economics, 72(1), 121-130.
Nishimura kazoo, G.S. (1994). Ergodic chaos in optimal growth modelswith low discount rates. Economic theory,4(5), 705-717.
Sandeep dahiya, M. P. (2003). Bank borrowers and loan sales: newevidence on the uniquencess of bank loans. The journal of business, 76(4),563-582.
Sue, H.K. (1985). Discount rates and the distribution of lifetime earning.The journal of human recourse, 20(3), 346-360.
Wahlen, J. M. (1994). The Nature of information ins Commercial Bank LoanLoss Disclosures. The accounting review, 69(3), 455-478.
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 18
APPENDIX
Discount
rate
Numeric 8 2 None None 8 Right Scale
Long-term Numeric 8 2 None None 29 Right Scale
Pre_1 Numeric 11 5 None None 13 Right Scale
Zre_1 Numeric 11 5 None None 13 Right Scale
Stockprices
Numeric 8 2 None None 8 Right Scale
Residuals Statistics
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviation N
PredicatedResidual
Std. predictedvalue
Std. residual
2.2123E7-
6.1663E7-1.356
-1.635
1.3495E89.95273E7
4.154
2.640
4.9891E7.00000
.000
.000
2.04763E73.71544E7
1.000
.985
707070
70a. Dependent Variable: long-term
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 19
Histogram
Dependent Variable: long-term
Mean = 8.21E-16
Std.Dev. =0.985
N=70
Regression Standardized Residual
Fr
e
uenc
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 20
Normal P-P Plot of RegressionStandardized Residual
Dependant Variable: long-term
Observed Cum Prob
Ex
ec
tedCum
Prob
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 21
Banks Discount ratesLong term
loansStock price
Bank AL Falah 13.2 % 56,050,200 12.81925Bank AL Falah 12.6 % 65,960,365 43.04068
Bank AL Falah 9.0 % 64.658.338 39.97531
Bank AL Falah 9.5 % 64,691.318 32.45184Bank AL Falah 10.0 % 48,016,917 29.7591
MCB 13.2 % 90,852,973 171.216
MCB 12.6 % 115,821,763 326.1734
MCB 9.0 % 75,752,190 313.1107MCB 9.5 % 62,252,015 199.361
MCB 10.0 % 52,252,015 84.26218
ABL 13.2 % 97,399,464 43.62012ABL 12.6 % 64991645 100.0372
ABL 9.0 % 56.389.910 116.99
ABL 9.5 % 51.680.419 92.15456ABL 10.0 % 35.319.539 65.84556HBL 13.2 % 1333.452.488 103.7473
HBL 12.6 % 102.994.413 208.8214
HBL 9.0 % 108,452,328 255.5895HBL 9.5 % 119,813,672
HBL 10.0 % 94,944,038UBL 13.2 % 113,280,205 48.19947
UBL 12.6 % 109,721,205 112.2127
UBL 9.0 %84,552,685
143.945
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 22
Banks Discount ratesLong term
loansStock price
UBL 9.5 % 91,471,122 111.4192UBL 10.0 % 71,072,975 66.04166
Bank al Habib 13.2 % 19,891,791 28.68557
Bank al Habib 12.6 % 17,921,161 52.36328Bank al Habib 9.0 % 14,399,600 67.63642
Bank al Habib 10.0 % 10,329,847 53.36827
Askari Bank 13.2 % 28,257,317 19.13711
Askari Bank 12.6 % 28,787,728 49.56932Askari Bank 9.0 % 26816341 65.53226
Askari Bank 9.5 25.458.048 48.34484
Askari Bank 10.0% 21.042.378 45.29441Faysal Bank 13.2% 37.148.353 3.00617
Faysal Bank 12.6% 50.628.504 42.9401
Faysal Bank 9.0% 30.768.128 69.53668Faysal Bank 9.5% 28.990.616 68.96556Faysal bank 10.0 % 56.04538
Kasb bank 13.2% 8.057421
Kasb bank 12.6% 6.689.838 18.3036Kas bank 9.0% 5.078.204 18.943
Kasb bank 9.5% 3.059.657 15.96435Kasb bank 10.0% 2.522.107 12.89597
Nib bank 13.2% 38.445.279 5.238748Nib ban k 12.6% 14.38373
Nib bank 9.0% 3.559.663 22.3541
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Discount Rate on Long Term Loans 23
Banks Discount ratesLong term
loansStock price
Nib bank 9.5% 6.634.413 24.54705Nib bank 10.0% 2.707.662 26.04244
Habib metrobank
13.2% 14.176.114 28.31791
Habib metrobank
12.6% 11.507.769 51.80503
Habib metrobank
9.0% 9.859.876 78.96029
Habib metrobank
9.5% 16.798.895 73.91538
Habib metrobank
10.0% 2.936.989 0
National bank 13.2% 164.532.669 50.09373
National bank 12.6% 123.180.475 100.3621
National bank 9.0% 125.547.920 139.7529
National bank 9.5% 146.652.701 122.7828National bank 10.0% 111.806.093 62.17487
Bank islami 13.2% 4.928.619 6.305011Bank islami 12.6% 3.808.405 15.3577
Bank islami 9.0% 3.029.868 12.64342Bank islami 9.5% 391.245 12.25343
Bank islami 10.0% 4.680 0
Meezan bank 13.2% 16.506.576 13.45868Meezan bank 12.6% 18.028.999 34.7401
Meezan bank 9.0% 12.144.488 28.75225
Meezan bank 9.5% 9.410.441 24.75913Meezan bank 10.0% 6.529.700 16.20638