thesis prospectus elan markov

8/16/2019 Thesis Prospectus Elan Markov

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Elan Markov

Honors Thesis Prospectus

Probabilistic Modeling and Data Analysis on

Experimental Data for Structural Systems

Introduction

This thesis considers the topic of simulating and modeling physical data ofstructural components using techniques from numerical and probabilistic analysis. The

goal is to design and test a Windows !"#based toolbo$ that processes e$perimental data

obtained from physical tests and from models designed using commercial code %&'#()*+,. 'ome software for this toolbo$ has already been completed and will be

described below. This pro-ect will be completed alongside other doctoral students

working towards the same goal.

EDP (Experimental Data Processing) Program

• +llows user to enter e$perimental data and display it as a two#dimensional plot.

• 'upport for smoothing %noise filtering, and regression analysis of data.• +llows user to divide data into ones/ each of which can have a separate

regression line.

• 0asic statistical analysis on multiple replicates of similar data.

• 1reates simple 2( plots and te$t file summaries of data and curve fits.

• 3nce finished/ will fully incorporate all other programs considered here to allow

for full analysis within one tool.

EDO-P! (Probabilistic or"benc#) Program

• Probabilistic analysis of sample data.

•

1reates ma$imum likelihood estimate %M&E, fit of sample data for *ormal/&ognormal/ amma/ Weibull %2# and 4#parameter,/ and eneralied E$ponential

distributions 567.

• ives goodness#of#fit %38, estimates for all distributions and plots distributions.

• Partially integrated into E(P9 will be used to perform statistical analysis on curve

fit parameters.

EDO-$MI% ($nconstrained Minimi&ation) Program

• Test of features for unconstrained function minimiation9 fully integrated into

E(3#PW0 and E(P 527.

EDO-! (or"benc#) Program• Test of features for nonlinear optimiation9 fully integrated into E(3#PW0 and

E(P.

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Elan Markov


'esearc# Plan

(uring this semester and the following semester/ the goal will be to improve upon the

programs listed above to allow the user to be able to fully complete an analysis of the

data through E(P. This will require a number of improvements to the E(P and E(3#

PW0 functionality. "n addition/ support for reliability analysis 547 will be added9 this toolwill be referred to as E(3#;W0 %;eliability Workbench, and will be designed either as a

standalone program or as an e$tension to E(3#PW0. The goals are listed below.

EDP (Experimental Data Processing) Program

• "mprove the methods for smoothing e$perimental data 57.

• "f possible/ 0ayesian analysis for refining distribution parameters with new

e$perimental data 5?7.

EDO-'! ('eliability or"benc#) Program

• 1reate Monte 1arlo simulation of a distribution of a variable dependent on one or

multiple random variables with known distribution 5@7.

• 1ompare the overlap of two related distributions to determine reliability 547.

imeline and Delierables

ee"ly* Meetings with the director andAor doctoral students will occur weekly to ensure progress on the pro-ect.

Preliminary - August and September* 1reate mathematical description of pro-ect/

including pseudocode and implementation in predesigned tools %;/ M+T&+0/ and

Mathematica, 5B7. (eliverableC preliminary design for probability analysis toolbo$.

October -December + ee"s ,-,* Write code implementation for preliminary design.

(eliverableC code implementation for probability analysis toolbo$.

December-.ebruary + ee"s ,/-,* Dalidate design with e$perimental data. Make

program improvements as necessary. 'tart adding new probability analysis toolbo$ intoE(P program/ if possible. (eliverableC improved probability toolbo$.

Marc# + ee"s -0* Prepare for oral thesis defense. (eliverableC oral defense.

April + ee"s 1-2* Prepare final submission draft. (eliverableC written thesis.

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Elan Markov


!ibliograp#y

6. (eivanayagam/ +. 262. Probabilistic Based Finite Element Analysis & Design

Optimization for Structural Designs. Masters Thesis/ +riona 'tate !niversity/+riona.

2. &uenberger/ (avid. Linear and Nonlinear Programming . +ddison#Wesley

Publications/ 6B@B. Print.4. Haldar/ Mahadevan. Probability !eliability and Statistical "et#ods in

Engineering Design. Web.

thesis prospectus elan markov

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