THINGS ARE HEATING UP

Source: NOAA

GLOBAL TOP 10 EMITTERS

Image: WRI visual

The Global Top 10 Emitters account for 72.78% of total Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GLOBAL TOP 10 EMITTERS- PER CAPITA

Image: WRI visual

IMAGE: NASA

Whatever the outcome of COP21 in Paris in December, efforts to shape international climate policy and politics will need to be strategically shifted in 2016. COP21 represents this ‘pivot point’.

THE UNFCCC PROCESS

1. Send a clear signal that the low-carbon economy is inevitable

2. Connect the global agreement to the “real economy” and “real people”

3. Provide transparency and accountability

4. Accelerate investment in low-carbon, climate resilient economies

5. Build a basis for climate action that demonstrates fairness

6. Ensure the vulnerable have the capacity to build resilience and adapt

7. Link to science with a sense of urgency

IMAGE: NASA

PARIS AGREEMENT’S SEVEN CORE FUNCTIONS

KEY ELEMENTS OF A GLOBAL AGREEMENT

THREE SCENARIOS FOR PARIS

• COP21 results in a global agreement, but vague

• No long term goals in text, but seem inevitable

• No backsliding but no clarity on future strengthening process

• Focus on outside assessments

• Limited financial commitments

• No agreement is reached at COP21

• Hope for multilateral climate action is set back at least a decade

• COP21 results in a clear global agreement

• Long-term goals• Three cycles of

continuous improvement and a commitment to progress over time

• Clarity on finance• Substantial new

outside initiatives • Heads of state and

media engagement

1 2 3

ROAD FROM PARIS: 2015 AND BEYOND

• Countries develop and adopt nationally-determined contributions– May include both mitigation and adaptation components

• Countries continue process to develop National Adaptation Plans

• Other national climate strategies also being developed and/or implemented

• Parties prepare for next ‘cycle’ to increase ambition – either 2020 or shortly afterwards.

• Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) begins

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS- CAIT PARIS CONTRIBUTIONS MAP

Overview though a visual dashboard

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

127 INDCs have been submitted so far. Of these 113 are from developing countries.All of these INDCs address mitigation – although highly variable.

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

• INDCs are highly variable in content.

• Different metrics and types of GHG targets used (US & EU: base year target, China: intensity target).

• Base years for countries also differ (e.g. EU & Russia:1990, US & Canada: 2005).

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

85% of INDCs have included an adaptation component