think global, act local - the hugo group...think global, act local private & confidential|bnz...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Think Global, Act Local
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Craig Ebert – Senior EconomistJanuary 2019
![Page 2: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Global Issues/Risks
2
• Global economy – slowdown (recession?)• Inverted yield curves• A correction in (equity) markets• US economy coming off a solid 2018 (Fed pause)• China slowing further (as intended?)• BREXIT – political quagmire with economic
consequences• Australian economy not so strong
![Page 3: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Flagging Rather Than Faltering
3
![Page 4: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Just A Healthy Correction?
4
![Page 5: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
New Zealand Economy
5
• A sense of resilience• Policy change important to keep monitoring• Government (industrial policy?)• RBNZ (Phase1, Phase2, bank capital proposals)• NZIER’s QSBO weak only in confidence• Capacity constraints still to the fore• Rates and NZD awaiting direction
![Page 6: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Confidence Still (A Bit) Below Par
6
![Page 7: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
But Activity Indicators Not Too Bad
7
![Page 8: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Employing and Investing
8
![Page 9: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Knee-Deep in Capacity Constraints
9
![Page 10: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Pressure on Costs (Profits)
10
![Page 11: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Rate Cuts?
11
![Page 12: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
A Broadly Robust Currency
12
![Page 13: Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS Craig Ebert –Senior Economist January 2019 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ MARKETS](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070909/5f8e3b75e2a77e0eac75175c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Disclaimer
13