thinking and communicating with diagrams
DESCRIPTION
Thinking and Communicating with Diagrams. Simple Causal-Loop Diagrams. CLD without Polarities. CLD without Polarities. Adding Loop Names Helps Greatly. CLD with Stocks. Standard Vensim Diagram (History: “Hybrid” diagram in Richardson and Pugh). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20061
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Thinking and Communicating with Diagrams
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20062
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Simple Causal-Loop Diagrams
Citizeninvolvement in
planning
Perception thatcitizens are powerlessand disenfranchised
Willingness of citizensto become involved
-+
-
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20063
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD without Polarities
Visitors peryear
Crowding Naturalarea
Contact areaDamageper visitor
Incidenceof
damageEnvironmental
damage
Damagedensity Regeneration
time
Disappearanceof damage
R
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20064
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD without Polarities
Averagecommuting time
Averagecommutingdistance
Averagecommuting speed
Tolerablecommuting time
Pressure for more andwider high speed roads
Lane-miles of highspeed roads
Attractivenessof outlying areas
Population inoutlying areas
Number ofcommuters
Net migration tooutlying areasHighwayconstruction
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20065
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Adding Loop Names Helps Greatly
Averagecommuting time
Average commutingdistance
Averagecommuting speed
Tolerablecommuting time
Pressure for moreand wider highspeed roads
Lane-miles of highspeed roads
Attractiveness ofoutlying areas
Population inoutlying areas
Number ofcommuters
Net migrationto outlying
areasHighwayconstruction(B1) Highway
expansion(B3) Commuting
volume
(B2) Commutingdistance
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20066
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
CLD with Stocks
Workforce
Net hiring
Progress rate
Cumulative realprogress
Tasks perceivedremaining
Effortperceivedremaining
Indicated worforce
Gross productivity
Initial project definition
Time remainingTime perceived required
Indicated completion date
Scheduledcompletion date
Net additions toschedule
<wcwf>
Undiscoveredrework
Cumulativepreceivedprogress
Fraction satisfactory
Cumulative effort
Perceived productivity
Workforce sought
Willingness tochange
workforceFraction
perceivedcomplete
<Workforce sought>
Detection ofundiscovered
rework
Time to detect rework
<tdrw>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20067
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobacco taxes++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20068
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Vensim Diagram(History: “Hybrid” diagram in Richardson and Pugh)
New personnel Experiencedpersonnel
AssimilationrateHiring rate Experienced
leave rate
Time tobecome
experiencedFrac exp
leaving p year
Total personnelTarget growth
rate
Fraction experienced
Mentoring time needed Mentoring time available
Mentoring timeneeded per New Mentoring time
available per Exp
Adequacy ofmentoring
Perceived timeto become Exp
Pressure for mentoring
G. P. RichardsonJuly 20069
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Diagram with Loop Names, Friendly Font, and Color
InventoryProducing Shipping
Demand
Productioncapacity
Inventorycoverage
Fraction of ordersshipped
Planned growth incapacity
Capacity inconstruction
Buildingcapacity
Capacityordering
Capacityacquisition delay
Deliverydelay
Delivery delayperceived by themarket
Phantomordering
Availability loop
Price and capacityadjustment loop
Phantomordering loops
+-Ordering
Price
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200610
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Standard Diagram Showing the Limit of Complexity/Readability in One Diagram
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200611
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Sector Diagram:Note Labels on Links
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200612
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Structure Diagrams(Morecroft)
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200613
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Structure Diagrams
(What’s the famous model?
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200614
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Lessons
• Readability (audience!)• Naming loops• Omitting unnecessary detail• Unfolding complex pictures• Communication!
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200615
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A Conceptual Map of the Tobacco Control System
Unfolding a Tobacco Map for Health Professionals
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200616
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobacco taxes++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200617
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200618
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
++
-
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200619
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
++
-
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
++
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200620
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
++
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200621
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200622
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
+
+
+
-
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
+
+-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+ +
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200623
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200624
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200625
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov.income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Taxrevenues
fromsmokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobaccorevenues
+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding fortobacco health
research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobaccotaxes
++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+ <Perceived importance ofother health programs>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
<xxx>
<xxx>
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200626
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
People startingsmoking
+
A Stock and its Flows
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200627
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking+
+
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200628
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
+
+
-
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
++
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200629
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
-
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
++
-
+
Reinforcing Loops
Four views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200630
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
People quittingsmoking
-
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
++
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200631
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Gov. income
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
++
+
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200632
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
++
+
+
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
+
Balancing orCounteracting Loops
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200633
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200634
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Tobacco controlprograms
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++
++
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200635
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Smoking as asocial norm
Tobacco revenues+
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
+ +
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200636
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
++ +
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
++
-
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200637
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Smokers
Tobacco marketingactivities
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
++ +
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
++
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
-
+
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200638
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200639
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200640
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
+
+
Health care costs
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
+
+
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Three views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200641
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
Funding for tobaccohealth research
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
Tobacco taxes++
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
Anti-tobaccolegislation
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
Government Willingness to Act Against Tobacco
Two views
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200642
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Tobacco controlprograms
SmokersPublic
awareness oftobacco health
risk
Smoking as asocial norm
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+++
Anti-tobaccolegislation
Accumulations in the Tobacco System
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200643
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobacco taxes++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200644
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Funding for tobaccocontrol programs
Gov. income
Tobacco controlprograms
Smokers
Perceived importance ofother health programs
Publicawareness oftobacco health
risk
Pressure on tobaccocompanies to reducemarketing activities
Tobacco marketingactivities
Tax revenuesfrom smokers
+
+
+
-
+
People quittingsmoking
-
Smoking as asocial norm
People startingsmoking
Tobacco revenues+
++
+
+
Health care costs
+
Health insurerscoverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
+
Researchersawarness of
tobacco healthrisk
Funding for tobaccohealth research+
+
Govt awarenessof tobaccohealth risk +
+
-
Pro-tobaccocontituencies
Anti-tobaccoconstituencies
++ +
+
Tobacco productsavailability
+
Tobaccoproductioncapacity
+
+
+
++
+
Govt willingness toact against tobacco
- + +
+
Tobacco taxes++
+-
Govt funding oftobacco control
+
-
Trend in tobaccocompany revenues
+
-
Anti-tobaccolegislation
-
+
+
+<Perceived importance
of other healthprograms>
+
Anti-tobaccolitigation
<Anti-tobaccolitigation>
xxx
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200645
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A “Shard” of a Tobacco Model
Unfolding an Aging Chain of Smokers
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200646
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200647
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200648
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200649
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
teens notsmoking
<Teens>fraction of teensinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200650
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
teens notsmoking
<Teens>fraction of teensinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200651
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
teen birth rateadult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
children notsmoking teens not
smokingadults notsmoking
elderly notsmoking
<Children><Teens> <Adults> <Elderly>
fraction of childreninitiated p yr
fraction of teensinitiated per year fraction of adults
initiatied per yearfraction of elderlyinitiated per year
Adult smokersdying
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
G. P. RichardsonJuly 200652
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Children Teens Adultsbirths p year children maturing teens aging
Elderlyadults aging smoking elderly
dying
nonsmokingadults dying
Childrensmoking
Teenssmoking
Adultssmoking
Elderlysmoking
new childrensmoking
child smokersmaturing
teen smokersaging
adult smokersaging
elderly smokersdying
fraction childrensmoking
fraction teenssmoking
fraction adultssmoking
fraction elderlysmoking
new teenssmoking
new adultssmoking
new elderlysmoking
child years teen years adult years
elderly yearsteen birth rate
adult birth rate
adult birthsteen births
children notsmoking teens not
smokingadults notsmoking
elderly notsmoking
<Children><Teens> <Adults> <Elderly>
fraction of childreninitiated p yr
fraction of teensinitiated per year fraction of adults
initiatied per yearfraction of elderlyinitiated per year
adult death rate
Adult smokersdying
adult smokingdeath multiplier
elderly smokingdeath multplier
<Fractionsmoking>
smokingadultsdying
nonsmokingelderlydying
<adult deathrate>
<elderly years>