third quarter 2015 results - transalta 2015 results_final.pdfexpectations regarding the role...
TRANSCRIPT
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Third Quarter 2015 Results
October 30, 2015
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Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable
securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made
and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the
circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”,
“will”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not
guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from
that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business and anticipated future financial and performance; our success in
executing on our growth projects, potential development opportunities, achieving top quartile operations and availability targets; the timing and the completion and
commissioning of projects under development, including major projects such as the South Hedland Power Project and Sundance 7, and their attendant costs; expectations
related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities (including estimates of comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and
amortization (“EBITDA”), comparable funds from operations (“FFO”), and comparable free cash flow; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long
term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; the impact of load growth, increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation
availability, capacity, and production; expected levels of future contractedness; expected sustaining capital expenditures; expected pricing in Alberta and the Pacific NorthWest;
expectations regarding the role different energy sources will play in meeting future energy needs; expected financing of our capital expenditures; expected governmental
regulatory regimes and legislation and their expected impact on us and the timing of the implementation of such regimes and regulations, as well as the cost of complying with
resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategies and the risk involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax
provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth rates in our markets; the estimated contribution of Energy Marketing activities to gross margin; and expectations relating to
the performance of TransAlta Renewables Inc.’s (“TransAlta Renewables”) assets and plans for the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables.
Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate
electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving
our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels,
water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out,
or have completed, repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign
currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for
income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations
matters; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of the South Hedland Power Project; failure to proceed with plans for
the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables as a result of failure to agree to commercial terms with the independent directors of TransAlta Renewables, adverse
market conditions or failure to obtain any required regulatory, shareholder or other third party approvals; and the satisfactory receipt of applicable regulatory approvals for
existing and proposed operations and growth initiatives. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our
Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating
the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document
are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except
as required by applicable laws. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we
have described, or might not occur. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved.
Certain financial information contained in this presentation may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be
comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not be
considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section
entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com.
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Strategic Highlights
Q3 2015 Review
Financial Summary and Outlook
Questions and Answers
Agenda
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Strategic Highlights
1) Focus on strengthening our balance sheet by executing on our drop down
strategy with TransAlta Renewables
2) Advocate for our “Dial Down – Dial Up” Proposal
3) Continue to grow TransAlta Renewables
4) Continue to remain disciplined in terms of the returns we expect from growth
5) Pursue more project level debt to reduce debt at the corporate level
5
Dial Down Coal - Dial Up Renewables
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
An
nu
al
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
Wh
)
Generation by fuel type for the Dial Down - Dial Up policy
Coal Gas Cogen Renewables
20% dial down of coal generation is replaced by a combination of
renewable and gas fired generation
Source: London Economics
6
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Current 2021 2026 2030
TransAlta's Generation Capacity (MW)
Transitioning Coal
• Significant optionality and opportunity for replacing mandatory coal retirements
• ~700 MW of Hydro expansion at Brazeau and BigHorn
• ~200 MW of other AB hydro expansions
• Coal to gas conversions
• Solar in the Wabamum area
• Wind expansion/repowering
• Brownfield & greenfield Cogeneration
Coal
Wind
Gas
Solar
Hydro
Potential Opportunities
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Significant Drop-Down Inventory
Gas Fired
Generation
• ~1,000 MW in Alberta & Ontario including:
• 244 MW Poplar Creek facility in AB
• 506 MW Sarnia facility in ON
• ~150 MW from 4 facilities through TA Cogen
• ~$220M in EBITDA
Alberta
Hydro
• ~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta, representing
90% of Alberta’s hydro
• ~$60 - $120M EBITDA
Other
Renewables
• 45 MW wind facility in AB
• 20 MW wind facility in ON
• 50 MW wind facility in Minnesota
• 21 MW solar facilities in
Massachusetts
• 99 MW wind facility in QC
• 7 MW hydro facility in ON
Recently
acquired from
Rockland Capital
Recently
acquired from
Suncor
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Third Quarter Performance Highlights
Q3 2015 commentary
• Solid performance in the quarter due to continued improvement in our mining
operations to reduce fuel costs, the addition of the gas pipeline in Australia and a return
to normal levels of gross margin in Energy Marketing
• Prices in Alberta decreased from $64 per MWh in the third quarter of 2014 to $26 per
MWh in the third quarter of 2015 but our high level of contracts and hedges mostly
mitigated the impact of low prices
1 Availability and production includes all generating assets (generation operations and finance leases that we operate). 2014 availability also includes equity investments,
which were sold in May 2014. 2 Adjusted for economic dispatching at U.S. Coal
3 months ended Sept 30 9 months ended Sept 30
(in $CAD millions) 2015 2014 Change 2015 2014 Change
Comparable EBITDA $219 $212 $7 $677 $735 ($58)
Comparable Funds from
Operations $126 $145 ($19) $497 $537 ($40)
Comparable Free Cash
Flow $8 $34 ($26) $141 $192 ($51)
Sustaining Capital $79 $84 ($5) $253 $255 ($2)
Adjusted Availability (1),(2) 91.2% 92% (0.8%) 87.8% 89.6% (1.8%)
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Recent Growth Accomplishments
• Advanced construction of our 150 MW South Hedland gas-fired facility in Australia with expected commissioning in mid-2017
• Re-structured contracts at our Poplar Creek facility, extending the contract duration by 7 years and reducing our merchant exposure in Alberta
• Acquired three wind facilities in Alberta, Ontario and Minnesota adding 115 MW of net wind capacity to our portfolio
• Added our first solar assets with the acquisition of 21 MW of fully-contracted solar projects in Massachusetts
Strategically reinvesting in our business for the long-term
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Financial Outlook
2015 Outlook Range ($M) Revised Target Previous Target 2015 YTD
Comparable EBITDA $980 - $1,010 $1,000 - $1,040 $677
Comparable FFO $725 - $755 $720 - $770 $497
Comparable FCF(1) $275 - $285 $265 - $270 $141
Sustaining Capital(1) $305 - $320 $310 - $340 $253
2016 Outlook Range ($M)
Comparable EBITDA $990 - $1,100
Comparable FFO $755 - $835
Comparable FCF $250 - $300
Sustaining Capital $330 - $350
¹ Excluding flood recovery capital
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Total portfolio contractedness
Merchant exposure in Alberta and the Pacific NW
2015 Hedge prices
AB ~$50/MWh
PacNW ~$40/MWh
2016 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$40 - $45/MWh
MW 89% 86% 80% 70%
Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows
Alberta Forward Curve
PacNW Forward Curve
Hedges mitigating impact of low power prices
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
PPAs Long-term contract
Short term contract / Hedges Open Merchant
$25
$35
$45
$55
2015 2016 2017
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2015 2016 2017
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2015 Third Quarter Business Segment Performance ($M)
Business Unit Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Key Drivers
Generation Segment
Canadian Coal $101 $92 • Lower operating expenses and mark-to-market
gains offset the impacts of lower prices and
lower availability
U.S. Coal $10 $13 • Coal inventory writedowns and reduced
generation from low power prices partially offset
by mark-to-market gains and a stronger USD
Gas $80 $77 • Additional revenues from the Australian natural
gas pipeline and strengthening of the USD
Wind (1) $23 $27 • Lower volumes in Eastern Canada and lower
power prices in Alberta
Hydro $15 $27 • Lower prices and decreased price volatility in
Alberta limited our ability to use our flexibility to
produce electricity in higher priced hours
Sub-Total Generation $229 $236
Energy Marketing $6 ($4) • Represents a return to normal gross margin
Corporate Segment ($16) ($20) • Legal costs incurred in 2014 relating to the MSA
proceedings
Consolidated EBITDA $219 $212
1 Wind Segment includes results of solar facilities acquired during the quarter
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Comparable FFO and FCF
3 months ended Sept 30 9 months ended Sept 30
(in $CAD millions) 2015 2014 2015 2014
Comparable EBITDA $219 $212 $677 $735
Interest ($58) ($59) ($167) $(178)
Current Income Tax Expense ($1) ($7) ($12) $(24)
Other adjustments ($34) ($1) ($1) $4
Comparable Funds from
Operations $126 $145 $497 $537
Sustaining Capital (1) ($77) ($83) ($251) ($254)
Pfd Share Dividends ($12) ($9) ($35) ($28)
NCI Cash Distributions ($29) ($19) ($70) ($63)
Comparable Free Cash Flow $8 $34 $141 $192
¹ Net of insurance recoveries of sustaining capital expenditures related to the Alberta flood of 2013
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Sustaining Capital
$M
Q3 2015 sustaining capital of $79 million. Year-to-date sustaining capital of $253
million. We have revised our annual target range to $305-$320(1) million for 2015
$286
$153 $162 $165 - $175
$115
$125 $116 $100 - $105
$38
$62 $55 $40
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2012 2013 2014 2015E
Mining Capital (including finance leases) Routine maintenance (excluding flood-recovery capital) Major Maintenance
¹ Excluding flood recovery capital
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