this is havering · 2019-08-30 · o the estimated population of the london borough of havering is...

HAVERING

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LONDON BOROUGH OF

HAVERING

This is Havering 2018

A Demographic and

Socio-economic Profile

Some Key Facts and

Figures

By London Borough of Havering

Public Health Service

Version 3.4 (March, 2018)

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Contents

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................................. 2

List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................................. 3

Document Version Control ................................................................................................................................... 4

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 6

Geographical Profile ........................................................................................................................................... 6

Population Profile ................................................................................................................................................ 6

Household Profile ................................................................................................................................................ 7

Economic Profile .................................................................................................................................................. 7

Background ................................................................................................................................................................ 8

Geographical Profile ................................................................................................................................................ 9

Geographical Location ....................................................................................................................................... 9

Havering as a Place ............................................................................................................................................. 9

Deprivation ......................................................................................................................................................... 12

Population Profile ................................................................................................................................................. 14

Havering’s Age Profile .................................................................................................................................... 14

Annual Population Change ........................................................................................................................... 15

Ward Level Change .......................................................................................................................................... 16

Age and Population Change ........................................................................................................................ 17

Births and Migration of Children ................................................................................................................ 19

Projected Population Change ...................................................................................................................... 22

Life Expectancy .................................................................................................................................................. 24

Ethnicity ................................................................................................................................................................ 27

People with Disabilities .................................................................................................................................. 32

Household Profile ................................................................................................................................................. 35

Household Size .................................................................................................................................................. 35

Mosaic Groups ................................................................................................................................................... 37

Housing Tenure ................................................................................................................................................. 39

Housing Conditions ......................................................................................................................................... 39

Homelessness .................................................................................................................................................... 40

Short-term International Migrant Populations ..................................................................................... 41

Traveller Population ......................................................................................................................................... 44

Social Isolation ................................................................................................................................................... 45

Economic Profile .................................................................................................................................................... 46

Income .................................................................................................................................................................. 46

Car Ownership ................................................................................................................................................... 47

Child Poverty ...................................................................................................................................................... 47

Employment and Unemployment .............................................................................................................. 49

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Summary of contents ........................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 2: The London Borough of Havering .................................................................................................. 9

Figure 3: Green belt land, public parks and green spaces, Havering 2013 ..................................... 10

Figure 4: Population Density, Persons per hectare mid-2014, Havering wards ............................ 11

Figure 5: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 quintiles, by Havering LSOAs ..................... 13

Figure 6: Havering, England and London Mid-2015 Population Pyramid ....................................... 15

Figure 7: Trend in population size in Havering, 1983-2015 .................................................................. 16

Figure 8: Components of Havering Population Change, from 2014 to 2015 ................................. 17

Figure 9: Population change in Havering, from mid-2014 to mid-2015 by component and

five-year age-group ............................................................................................................................................. 18

Figure 10: Net population change due to migration in Havering, from mid-2014 to mid-2015

five-year age-group ............................................................................................................................................. 19

Figure 11: Number of births to women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015 ............................... 20

Figure 12: Trend in general fertility rate of women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015 ......... 20

Figure 13: Net flow of children by London Borough, 2010-2015 ....................................................... 21

Figure 14: Projected population growth by age group (to nearest hundred), 2016, 2021, 2026

and 2031 ................................................................................................................................................................... 23

Figure 15: Life expectancy at birth (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and

England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2012-14 ............................................................................. 24

Figure 16: Life expectancy at birth by local deprivation decile with Havering average, by

gender, 2012-14 .................................................................................................................................................... 25

Figure 17: Life expectancy at age 65 (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and

England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2012-14 ............................................................................. 26

Figure 18: Havering 2011 Census Population, broken down by proportion of White British

and BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic) groups .......................................................................................... 27

Figure 19: Percentage of people stating their ethnicity as not White (all non-White

categories) in Havering, by wards ................................................................................................................... 28

Figure 20: Projected proportion of Havering population by ethnicity ............................................. 29

Figure 21: Count and proportion of UK born and non-UK born Havering residents, and

breakdown of non-UK born Havering residents (count and rate per 10,000 of Havering

population) by country of birth (plus relative size by world region), 2011 ..................................... 31

Figure 22: Estimated moderate physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years,

in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015 ............................................ 32

Figure 23: Estimated serious physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years, in

Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015 ................................................. 33

Figure 24: Estimated moderate or severe learning disabilities rate per 100,000 persons aged

18-64 years, in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015 .................. 34

Figure 25: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by Census years ....................... 35

Figure 26: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by ward, 2011........................... 36

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Figure 27: Household* Mosaic Groups in Havering, 2016..................................................................... 37

Figure 28: Proportion of households by housing tenure, London Boroughs, 2015 .................... 39

Figure 29: Homeless households in temporary accommodation in Havering, Havering’s

deprivation decile, London and England, crude rate per 1,000 households, 2015-16 ............... 40

Figure 30: Statutory homelessness in Havering, Havering’s deprivation decile, London and

England, crude rate per 1,000 estimated total households, 2015-16 ............................................... 41

Figure 31: Rate of international short-term migrants per 100,000 population in 2014,

Havering, other London boroughs, London and England ..................................................................... 42


Havering, Havering’s statistical neighbours, London and England .................................................... 43

Figure 33: Distribution of traveller caravans in Havering, by type of site, July 2015 and

January 2016 ........................................................................................................................................................... 45

Figure 34: Total Average Annual Household Income in London Boroughs, 2012/13................. 46

Figure 35: Car or van ownership amongst households across London boroughs, 2011 ........... 47

Figure 36: Percentage of children in poverty by ward (before housing costs – BHC; and after

housing costs – AHC), Oct-Dec 2013 estimates ........................................................................................ 48

Figure 37: Income deprivation affecting Children, quintiles within Havering LSOA, 2015 ....... 49

Figure 38: Proportion of working age residents in employment by London Borough, January

2015 – December 2015 ....................................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 39: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in London

Boroughs as of November 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 40: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in Havering

and ONS statistical comparator group, as of November 2015 ........................................................... 51

List of Tables

Table 1: Estimated population of residents in Havering by gender and five-year age group. 14

Table 2: Havering Components of Population Change, from 2014 to 2015 .................................. 16

Table 3: Population change from 2014 to 2015, by Havering ward .................................................. 17

Table 4: Projected population for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 and projected percentage

population change from 2016 to 2020, 2026 and 2031, by Havering wards ................................. 22

Table 5: Projected percentage population change by age group since 2016, for 2021, 2026

and 2031 ................................................................................................................................................................... 23

Table 6: Top 5 Household* Mosaic groups in Havering, 2016 ............................................................ 37

Table 7: Short-term international migration into Havering, migrants satisfying United Nations

definition of a short-term migrant, estimates from the International Passenger Survey, mid-

2010 to mid-2014 ................................................................................................................................................. 42

Table 8: Count of Traveller Caravans in Havering, last five counts, January 2014 to January

2016 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 44

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Document Version Control

Version Description

1.0 Original document in 2015/16 financial year

Published in September 2015

1.1 First quarterly update in 2015/16 financial year

Published in December 2015

1.2 Second quarterly update in 2015/16 financial year

Published in March 2016


Published in June 2016



2.3 Third quarterly update in 2016/17 financial year

Published in Decembermber 2016

2.4 Fourth quarterly update in 2016/17 financial year



Published in June 2017



3.3 Third quarterly update in 2017/18 financial year

Published in December 2017

3.4 Fourth quarterly update in 2017/18 financial year


All figures using Ward level 2015 mid-year population estimates updated to

2016 mid-year estimates; including the population density map and ward

level population changes.

Projected population facts for 2017, 2022, 2027, 2032 (in Projected Population

Change section) updated to 2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033

The number of live births and general fertility rate figures have been updated

to include 2016 data

Net flow of child migration has been updated using data from 2011 - 2016

Life expectancy at birth and at 65 have been updated using data from the

period 2014-16

Estimated moderate or severe learning disabilities rate per 100,000 persons

aged 18-64 years, updated with 2017 data.

The number of households on the Council Tax list has been updated using

data from 31st March 2018

Homeless households in temporary accommodation data updated to 2016/17

Statutory homelessness data updated to 2016/17

Short-term international migration figures have been updated with 2015 mid-

year estimates

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Traveller Population section updated with July 2017 data

Working age residents in employment figures updated with the latest data

from NOMIS (October 2016 – September 2017)

Working age residents claiming out of work benefits figures updated with the

latest data from NOMIS (October 2016 – September 2017)

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Executive Summary

Geographical Profile o The London Borough of Havering is the 3rd largest borough in London (43 miles2) and

contains 18 electoral wards.

o It is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area

dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough.

o The principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan

retail and night time entertainment.

o The southern part of Havering is within the London Riverside section of the Thames

Gateway redevelopment area and will be an area of increasing development and

population change.

o Havering is a relatively affluent local authority but there are pockets of deprivation to the

north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) of the borough.

Population Profile o The estimated population of the London Borough of Havering is 252,783.

o It has the oldest population in London with a median age of approximately 40 years old.

o The Borough experienced a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 to 2002 but the

population has increased year on year from 2002, with a 12.3% increase from 2002 to

2016.

o As well as increases in the number of births in Havering, there has been an increase in

the general fertility rate from 58 (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2004 to 70 in 2016.

This equates to an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 within the period.

o From 2011 to 2016, Havering experienced the largest net inflow of children across all

London boroughs. 4,580 children settled in the borough from another part of the United

Kingdom during this six year period.

o It is projected that the largest increases in population will occur in children (0-17 years)

and older people age groups (65 years and above) up to 2033.

o The life expectancy at birth for people living in Havering is 80.2 years for males and 83.9

years for females.

o The life expectancy at age 65 years in Havering is 19 years for males and 21.7 years for

females.

o Havering is one of the most ethnically homogenous places in London, with 83% of its

residents recorded as White British, higher than both London and England.

o About 90% of the borough population were born in the United Kingdom.

o It is projected that the Black African population will increase from 4.1% in 2017 to 5.3% of

the Havering population in 2032.

o About 18% of working age people living in Havering disclosed that they have a disability

or long term illness.

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Household Profile o There are 105,691 households in Havering, according to the Council Tax List (as at 31st

March 2018).

o Households are mainly composed of pensioners and married couples with dependent

children.

o All adults in 52% of households (40,722 households) are working and no adults are

working in 16% of households (12,256 households).

o In 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult households with children under 16 in Havering. This

is an increase from 2001 when there were 4,005 lone parent households. There has also

been an increase in the number of one-adult households with no children.

o About 70% of the population in Havering are home owners. This is one of the highest

proportions across London boroughs.

o Housing in the borough is mainly Victorian and Edwardian. Houses are generally large

with an average of 2.8 bedrooms per household (higher than both London and England).

o The rate of homeless households in temporary accommodation (7.2 per 1,000

households) is lower than London (15.1 per 1,000) but higher than England (3.4 per

1,000).

o The rate of statutory homelessness (eligible people not in priority need) in Havering (0.5

per 1,000 households), in 2016/17, is lower than both London (1.1 per 1,000) and England

(0.9 per 1,000).

o The borough has a rate of short-term international migrants of 142 per 100,000

population, the second lowest of all London local authorities.

o About 73% of the traveller caravans in Havering were on unauthorised sites, as at July

2017.

o 32% (13,449) of the population aged 65 years and above are living in one-person

households. Almost half (48%) of all one person households in Havering are occupied by

persons aged 65 years and over, which is the highest proportion in London

Economic Profile o The average gross income per household in Havering (£44,430, as measured in 2012/13)

is low in comparison to the London average (£51,770) and slightly higher than the

England average (£39,557).

o 77% of households in Havering have at least one car and compared to other local

authorities in London, Havering has the second highest proportion of households (32.8%)

with 2 or more cars.

o Majority of children in Havering are not poor, but around 8,800 live in income-deprived

households. Gooshays and Heaton wards have the highest proportion of children living

in poverty.

o About 79.8% of working age residents in Havering were in employment between October

2016 – September 2017. Overall employment rate in Havering is higher than London

(73.7%) and England (74.5%)

o The proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out-of-work benefits

(6.6%) is significantly lower than England (8.4%).

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Background

This product forms part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA). The JSNA is a

systematic method for reviewing the issues facing a population, leading to agreed priorities

and resource allocation that will improve health and wellbeing of the population and reduce

inequalities within the population.

This document provides a snapshot of key geographic, demographic and socio-economic

facts and figures for the London Borough of Havering1, with the intention that this will be the

“one version of the truth” or reference document for all local stakeholders.

These facts and figures have been provided in a quick and accessible way2 and with good

visualisation of data, where appropriate. In addition, this document provides how Havering

values compare to national (England), regional (London) and peer group3 values. The choice

of comparators for individual values or indicators is based on a number of factors including

appropriateness and data availability.

A summary of what is covered in this document, which is updated quarterly4, is presented in

Figure 1.

Figure 1: Summary of contents

1 Simply referred to as “Havering” throughout this document.

2 Also see an accompanying PowerPoint document, which is a shortened version of this document and can be

used for stakeholders’ PowerPoint-based presentations.

3 Peer group means a group of similar local authorities based on multiple indicators (sometimes referred to as

“statistical neighbours”) or one important factor (such as deprivation) when all local authorities in England are

divided into groups (or deciles – meaning ten groups).

4 The next version/update is due in June 2018.

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Geographical Profile

Geographical Location Havering is the third largest London borough, covering some 43 square miles. It is located

on the northeast boundary of Greater London. The location of Havering in the context of

Greater London is presented in Figure 2.

Havering is bordered to the north and east by the Essex countryside, to the south by a three

mile River Thames frontage, and to the west by the neighbouring London boroughs of

Redbridge and Barking & Dagenham. Havering has 18 electoral wards (see Figure 2).

Residents’ postcodes mainly fall into the Romford postal area (RM1 to RM7 and RM11 to

RM14) but a small number fall into the Chelmsford postal area (CM12 and CM13).

Figure 2: The London Borough of Havering

Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Havering as a Place Havering is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area

dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough where strict Green

Belt restrictions have prohibited the extension of existing developments (see Figure 3).

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Figure 3: Green belt land, public parks and green spaces, Havering 2013

Data Source: Local Land and Property Gazetteer (LLPG); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

On the other hand, its principal town (Romford), is densely populated (see Figure 4), and is a

major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment centre. The southern part of

Havering adjacent to the Thames is within the London Riverside section of the Thames

Gateway redevelopment area. This will therefore be a site of increasing development and

population change.

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Figure 4: Population Density, Persons per hectare mid-2015, Havering wards

Data Source: United Kingdom Standard Area of Measurements and Ward Mid-year population

Estimates 2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

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Deprivation People who live in the most deprived areas have the poorest health and well-being

outcomes. On average people living in deprived areas, lower socio-economic groups and

marginalised groups have poorer health and poorer access to health care than people

resident in affluent areas and people from higher socio-economic groups.

Havering is a relatively affluent borough. Based on IMD (Index of Multiple Deprivation)

20155, Havering is ranked 166th overall out of 326 local authorities in England for

deprivation (1st being most deprived, 326th being least deprived). Although this suggests a

relative slight increase in deprivation compared to the IMD 20106 ranking (177th out of 326

local authorities), Havering remains within the third deprivation quintile7 when compared to

all local authorities.

However, there are pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and

south (South Hornchurch ward) of the borough. Figure 5 displays two maps of Havering: on

the left, deprivation quintile score of Havering Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs)8 relative

to Havering and on the right, deprivation quintile score of Havering LSOAs relative to

England. Both are displayed in order to respectively identify areas more deprived compared

to other local and national LSOAs.

5 In September 2015, the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) published the English Indices

of Multiple Deprivation 2015 (IMD 2015). This includes county and district summary measures, and a series of

separate domains and other measures at the level of Lower Super Output Area (LSOA).

6 The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) published the English Indices of Multiple

Deprivation 2010 (IMD 2010) in March 2011.

7 Deprivation quintile: A ‘quintile’ basically represents 20% (or one-fifth) of a given population. Deprivation

quintiles are derived when a population is ranked in order of deprivation and split into 5 groups – from the most

deprived to the least deprived quintile.

8 LSOA - Lower Layer Super Output Areas are a geographic hierarchy used by Office for National Statistics (ONS)

to improve the reporting of small area statistics. They are built from groups of contiguous Output Areas and have

been automatically generated to be as consistent in population size as possible, and typically contain from four to

six Output Areas. The minimum population is 1000 and the mean is 1500.

http://www.datadictionary.nhs.uk/data_dictionary/nhs_business_definitions/l/lower_layer_super_output_area_de.asp?shownav=1

http://www.datadictionary.nhs.uk/data_dictionary/nhs_business_definitions/l/lower_layer_super_output_area_de.asp?shownav=1

http://www.datadictionary.nhs.uk/data_dictionary/nhs_business_definitions/o/output_area_de.asp?shownav=1

http://www.datadictionary.nhs.uk/data_dictionary/nhs_business_definitions/o/output_area_de.asp?shownav=1

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Figure 5: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 quintiles, by Havering LSOAs

Data source: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015; Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Deprived Most Deprived More Deprived Less Deprived Least Deprived

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Population Profile

According to the 2016 Mid-Year Estimates of Population, published by the Office for

National Statistics (ONS) on 22 June 2017, the population of Havering is 252,783. These

include people usually resident9 in Havering (including students at their term time address

and long-term migrants10).

Havering’s Age Profile Havering has the oldest population in London with a median age of 40 years, as recorded in

the 2011 census. Table 1 shows the breakdown of current (mid-2016) population by gender

and five-year age bands and the population pyramid in Figure 6 compares the population

figures for Havering with London and England by five-year age bands. Figure 6 shows a

much older age structure for the population of Havering compared to London but similar to

England.

Table 1: Estimated population of residents in Havering by gender and five-year age group

Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS);

Produced by Public Health Intelligence

9 anyone who is resident and had stayed or intends to stay for a period of 12 months or more, OR has a

permanent address and is outside the UK and intends to be outside the UK for less than 12 months.

10 those coming to the United Kingdom (UK) for more than a year.

AGE BAND (YEARS) MALE FEMALE PERSONS

00-04 8,617 8,391 17,008

05-09 7,138 7,017 14,155

10-14 7,346 7,065 14,411

15-19 7,443 7,295 14,738

20-24 8,475 9,158 17,633

25-29 8,253 9,011 17,264

30-34 7,869 8,682 16,551

35-39 7,572 7,970 15,542

40-44 8,136 9,015 17,151

45-49 8,487 9,051 17,538

50-54 7,963 8,100 16,063

55-59 7,988 7,598 15,586

60-64 6,351 6,551 12,902

65-69 6,345 6,966 13,311

70-74 4,715 5,665 10,380

75-79 3,518 4,783 8,301

80-84 2,817 4,177 6,994

85-89 1,728 3,002 4,730

90+ 695 1,830 2,525

All Ages 121,456 131,327 252,783

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Figure 6: Havering, England and London Mid-2016 Population Pyramid

Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2016, Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by

Public Health Intelligence

Annual Population Change Following a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 (240,200) to 2002 (225,100), the

population of Havering has increased year on year from 2002, with a 12.3% increase from

2002 to 2016 (see Figure 7).

The mid-year population estimates in Havering has increased, from 2015 to 2016, by 3,698

residents (a percentage increase of about 1.5%). This increase is mainly due to internal

migration11 – that is, migration from other local authorities (1,703, 0.7%). Natural change

(births minus deaths) contributed 0.5% and international migration accounted for the

remaining 0.3% of the population increase from mid-2015 to mid-2016. See Error!

Reference source not found. and Table 2 for more details.

11

Internal migration is calculated as the difference in total between those moving into and out of the borough

from other local authorities in the United Kingdom.

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

Percentage of total population

Age

Gro

up

Havering Females Havering Males London Males London Females England Males England Females

FemalesMales

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Figure 7: Trend in population size in Havering, 1984-2016

Data source: Mid-year population estimates 1984-2016 (nearest hundreds); Office for National

Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Table 2: Havering Components of Population Change, from 2015 to 2016

Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2016 Analysis Tool; Office for National Statistics (ONS);


Ward Level Change

Population change by ward from 2015 to 2016 is presented in Table 3. Hacton, Mawneys and

Emerson Park saw a small decline in population whereas all other wards experienced an

increase. Gooshays, Harold Wood, Brooklands, Heaton and Romford Town experienced the

highest percentage increase in population. The rationale for these changes is currently being

queried via the ONS mid-year estimates methodology; however, likely explanations for

population increase includes economic growth within Romford town and inflow migration

from neighbouring boroughs into bordering wards such as Gooshays, Brooklands and

23

7,6

00

22

9,1

00

22

6,0

00

22

5,1

00

22

9,8

00

23

9,7

00

25

2,8

00

205,000

210,000

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

235,000

240,000

245,000

250,000

255,000

19

841

985

19

861

987

19

881

989

19

901

991

19

921

993

19

941

995

19

961

997

19

981

999

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

062

007

20

082

009

20

102

011

20

122

013

20

142

015

20

16

Po

pu

lati

on

siz

e

Mid-year

Note: Axis does not start at origin

NUMBER PERCENTAGE

Estimated Population mid-2015 249,085

Estimated Population mid-2016 252,783

Overall Population Change 3,698 1.5%

due to Births and Deaths 1,161 0.5%

due to Internal Migration 1,703 0.7%

due to International Migration 847 0.3%

due to Other Adjustments -13 0.0%

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Harold Wood. Potential explanations for the slight decline in population within wards include

outflow migration into bordering boroughs and residents migrating between Havering

wards.

Table 3: Population change from 2015 to 2016, by Havering ward

Data source: Ward-level Mid-year population estimates 2015 and Ward-level Mid-year population

estimates 2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Age and Population Change Figure 8 presents the population change in Havering from mid-2015 to mid-2016 by

contributory factor and age. Figure 9 presents the net change in population due to migration

from mid-2015 to mid-2016 in Havering by five-year age group.

Inclusive of ‘natural change’ (i.e. births and deaths), children aged 0-4 years are the largest

contributors to population change, largely due to births. 2016 saw a net increase in young

adults (20-49 years) largely due to internal migration and a net decrease in adults aged 75

years and over largely due to deaths (see Figures 9 and 10).

Mid-2015

Population

Mid- 2016

PopulationChange

Rank of %

Change

(1 is highest,

18 is lowest)

HAVERING 249,085 252,783 3,698 -

Gooshays 15,770 16,560 790 1

Harold Wood 13,835 14,301 466 2

Brooklands 16,916 17,443 527 3

Heaton 13,871 14,295 424 4

Romford Town 17,503 18,012 509 5

Rainham and Wennington 12,964 13,193 229 6

South Hornchurch 14,100 14,343 243 7

Havering Park 13,522 13,726 204 8

Squirrel's Heath 13,784 13,980 196 9

Elm Park 13,055 13,235 180 10

Cranham 12,729 12,879 150 11

Pettits 13,081 13,146 65 12

Upminster 13,089 13,146 57 13

St Andrew's 13,682 13,706 24 14

Hylands 13,374 13,376 2 15

Emerson Park 12,081 12,059 -22 16

Mawneys 13,387 13,271 -116 17

Hacton 12,342 12,112 -230 18

1.38%

%Change

1.48%

5.01%

3.37%

3.12%

3.06%

2.91%

1.77%

1.72%

1.51%

1.42%

-0.87%

-1.86%

1.18%

0.50%

0.44%

0.18%

0.01%

-0.18%

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Figure 8: Population change in Havering, from mid-2015 to mid-2016 by component and

five-year age-group



-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

Population Change

Age

gro

up

s

Births Deaths

Internal Migration Inflow Internal Migration Outflow

International Migration Inflow International Migration Outflow

Other

InflowOutflow

Age

groupBirths Deaths

Internal

Migration Inflow

Internal Migration

Outflow

International

Migration Inflow

International

Migration Outflow Other

0-4 3,447 -7 1,257 -844 93 -11 1

5-9 0 0 754 -538 52 -14 2

10-14 0 -2 495 -400 52 -4 1

15-19 0 -1 521 -1,036 115 -26 -5

20-24 0 -6 1,463 -1,057 250 -130 -5

25-29 0 -7 1,689 -1,409 271 -128 -2

30-34 0 -5 1,809 -1,178 176 -71 0

35-39 0 -12 1,219 -876 120 -50 -3

40-44 0 -11 725 -538 79 -34 -2

45-49 0 -24 578 -522 44 -19 0

50-54 0 -68 487 -509 39 -16 0

55-59 0 -79 370 -488 36 -16 0

60-64 0 -91 273 -387 35 -15 0

65-69 0 -154 188 -287 17 -14 0

70-74 0 -178 128 -185 11 -4 0

75-79 0 -273 115 -101 5 -2 0

80-84 0 -349 98 -126 4 0 0

85-89 0 -448 90 -83 1 0 0

90+ 0 -571 81 -73 1 0 0

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 9: Net population change due to migration in Havering, from mid-2015 to mid-2016

five-year age-group



Births and Migration of Children As the population of Havering grows, there has been a corresponding change in the number

of births to women resident in Havering (see Figure 10).

As well as increases in the number of births in Havering, there has seen an increase in the

general fertility rate (GFR)12 from 58 (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2004 to 70 in 2016.

This equates to an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 within the period.

The annual GFR for Havering is significantly higher compared to England, London and

Havering’s closest statistical neighbour – Bexley but similar to the Outer London average, see

Figure 11.

12

General Fertility Rate (GFR) is defined as the number of live births in a geographic area in a year per 1,000

women of childbearing age (defined as age 15 to 44 years)

496

256

144

-431

521

421

736

410

230

81

1

-98

-94

-96

-50

17

-24

8

9

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

Net population count

Age

gro

up

s

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 10: Number of live births to women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2016

Data source: Birth Summary Tables 2004-2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public

Health Intelligence

Figure 11: Trend in general fertility rate of women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2016

Data source: Live Births, General Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates 2004-2016; Office for National

Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

2,55

9

2,47

4

2,42

6 2,57

5 2,78

7

2,69

7

2,81

7

2,89

5

2,88

8

3,00

4

3,15

0

3,27

5

3,42

3

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

er o

f Bir

ths

Year

Number of Live Births Linear (Number of Live Births)

5856 54

5862

5962 62 62

6466 67

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

er

of

live

bir

ths

pe

r 1

00

0 w

om

en

age

d 1

5-4

4

Year

Bexley Havering Outer London England London Linear trend (Havering)

HAVERING

J S N A

In addition, Havering has experienced the largest net inflow of children across all London

boroughs in recent years. In a six year period (from 2011 to 2016), 4,580 children have

settled in the borough from another part of the United Kingdom (see Figure 12). Figure 12

also illustrates that there is migration of children out of Inner London Boroughs, which have

experienced a negative net flow, into Outer London Boroughs. However, the biggest inflows

of children into Havering in 2016 came from neighbouring Outer London Boroughs,

Redbridge (407 children) and Barking & Dagenham (342 children).13

Figure 12: Net flow of children by London Borough, 2011-2016

Data source: Internal Migration Flows 2011-2016; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public

Health Intelligence

13

Internal migration flows for school children (July 2016) Greater London Authority using internal migration

estimates mid-2010 to mid-2015 (June 2016) Office for National Statistics

-15,494

-14,312

-12,924

-12,310

-10,106

-9,887

-9,487

-9,362

-8,816

-8,551

-8,527

-7,490

-7,446

-6,432

-6,399

-6,118

-5,939

-5,907

-5,687

-3,288

-3,200

-2,557

-2,109

-1,943

-1,272

-1,010

-810

-480

-207

1,827

2,575

2,629

4,580

-20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000

Newham

Wandsworth

Lambeth

Southwark

Waltham Forest

Haringey

Brent

Ealing

Tower Hamlets

Lewisham

Westminster

Hammersmith and Fulham

Hackney

Hounslow

Islington

Camden

Greenwich

Kensington and Chelsea

Merton

Barnet

Redbridge

Croydon

Harrow

Richmond upon Thames

Enfield

Hillingdon

Kingston upon Thames

Barking and Dagenham

City of London

Sutton

Bromley

Bexley

Havering

HAVERING

J S N A

Projected Population Change According to the Greater London Authority (GLA) Local authority population projections

Housing-led Model14, the population of Havering is projected to increase from 257,514 in

2018 to:

276,645 in 2023 – a 7% increase from 2018



The populations in Romford Town, Brooklands and South Hornchurch wards are expected to

increase the most over the next fifteen years. The projected increase in population in

Romford Town is mainly due to its rapidly growing economy and new housing

developments; whereas inflow migration from neighbouring boroughs mainly account for

the projected population increase in Brooklands and South Hornchurch. Table 4 shows the

projected population and projected percentage population change in Havering at ward level

for the next 5, 10 and 15 years.

Table 4: Projected population for 2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033 and projected percentage

population change from 2018 to 2023, 2028 and 2033, by Havering wards

Data source: GLA 2015-based Demographic Projections – Ward Projections; Greater London Authority

(GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

14

This models the population size for each age group based on trend data and strategic housing building plans

(the assumption is that the proportion of people in each age group remains relatively stable over the next ten

years). The tool is updated annually to reflect the latest ONS mid-year estimates. These projections incorporate

assumptions about future development based on the results of the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability

Assessment (SHLAA).

2018

No. No.% change

from 2016No.

% change

from 2016No.

% change

from 2016

Brooklands 19,350 22,650 17.1% 24,650 27.4% 25,250 30.5%

Cranham 13,000 13,300 2.3% 13,600 4.6% 13,750 5.8%

Elm Park 13,200 13,350 1.1% 13,500 2.3% 13,600 3.0%

Emerson Park 12,250 12,350 0.8% 12,550 2.4% 12,750 4.1%

Gooshays 16,550 17,350 4.8% 17,650 6.6% 17,800 7.6%

Hacton 12,350 12,600 2.0% 12,900 4.5% 13,100 6.1%

Harold Wood 14,850 15,850 6.7% 16,500 11.1% 16,900 13.8%

Havering Park 13,400 13,550 1.1% 13,700 2.2% 13,900 3.7%

Heaton 14,200 14,350 1.1% 14,300 0.7% 14,350 1.1%

Hylands 13,300 13,500 1.5% 13,700 3.0% 13,900 4.5%

Mawneys 13,350 13,450 0.7% 13,550 1.5% 13,700 2.6%

Pettits 13,450 13,900 3.3% 14,300 6.3% 14,500 7.8%

Rainham and Wennington 13,200 13,850 4.9% 14,400 9.1% 14,900 12.9%

Romford Town 17,700 20,200 14.1% 22,550 27.4% 24,250 37.0%

South Hornchurch 17,550 21,250 21.1% 22,150 26.2% 22,050 25.6%

Squirrel's Heath 13,850 13,850 0.0% 14,000 1.1% 14,200 2.5%

St Andrew's 13,600 14,100 3.7% 14,550 7.0% 14,800 8.8%

Upminster 13,250 13,750 3.8% 14,300 7.9% 14,850 12.1%

Ward

2023 2028 2033

HAVERING

J S N A

In addition, the population aged 25-64 will remain the largest age group up to 2033. Figure

13 and Table 5 present change in population by age group for 2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033.

Figure 13: Projected population growth by age group (to nearest hundred), 2018, 2023, 2028

and 2033

Data source: GLA 2016-based Demographic Projections – Local Authority population projection

Housing-led Model; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Table 5: Projected percentage population change by age group from 2018 to 2033

Data source: GLA 2016-based Demographic Projections – Local Authority population projection

Housing-led Model; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

17,600 18,700 19,100 18,50020,300 22,800 24,300 24,10020,600 24,900 28,200 29,50019,800 19,900 22,200 24,200

132,400140,000

145,100 146,100

39,30041,900

46,500 49,7007,600

8,4009,300 11,700

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2018 2023 2028 2033

Nu

mb

er

of

resi

de

nts 85+

65-84

25-64

18-24

11-17

5-10

0-4

Age Group 2023 2028 2033

0-4 6% 9% 5%

5-10 12% 20% 19%

11-17 21% 37% 43%

18-24 1% 12% 22%

25-64 6% 10% 10%

65-84 7% 18% 26%

85+ 11% 22% 54%

Percentage change from 2018 to

HAVERING

J S N A

Life Expectancy The life expectancy at birth15 for people living in Havering is 80.1 years for males and 84.2

years for females. Life expectancy in Havering for both males and females have been mostly

higher than the England average but similar to London; it has been on the increase over the

last decade (see Figure 15).

Figure 14: Life expectancy at birth (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and

England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2014-16

Data source: Life expectancy at birth, 2001-2003 to 2014-16; Public Health Outcomes Framework

(PHOF); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

15

Life expectancy is a frequently used indicator of the overall health of a population: a longer life expectancy is

generally a reflection of better health. Reducing the differences in life expectancy is a key part of reducing health

inequalities. Life expectancy at birth for an area is an estimate of how long, on average, babies born today may

live if she or he experienced that area’s age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout her or his life.

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

Life

exp

ect

ancy

at

bir

th (y

ear

s)

Havering Female London Female England Female

Havering Male London Male England Male

No

te: A

xis

do

es

no

t sta

rt

at o

rigi

n

HAVERING

J S N A

Within Havering, there are inequalities in life expectancy at birth by local deprivation decile16

(see Figure 16). The most deprived deciles of the population have significantly shorter life

expectancies than the Havering average.

For males, life expectancy at birth ranges from 76.6 years in the most deprived decile

to 84.5 years in the least deprived decile (difference of 7.9 years). This is greater than

the gap seen across London (difference of 6.7 years).

For females, life expectancy at birth ranges from 81.1 years in the most deprived

decile to 86.6 years in the least deprived decile (difference of 5.5 years). This is

greater than the gap seen across London (difference of 4.4 years).

Figure 15: Life expectancy at birth by local deprivation decile compared with Havering

average, by gender, 2012-14

Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF - 0.1ii. Life expectancy at birth); Public Health

England (PHE); Produced by Public Health Intelligence. Published on February 2016

16

Deprivation decile: Population ranked in order of deprivation and split into 10 groups (from most to least

deprived)

HAVERING

J S N A

The life expectancy at age 65 for males in Havering is 18.9 years.

This is similar to the life expectancy for males in London (19.3 years) and England (18.8

years).

Over a thirteen-year period (of 3-year rolling periods – from 2001-03 to 2014-16), the

life expectancy at age 65 for males in Havering has increased significantly from 16.3

years to 18.9 years – a 16% increase (see Figure 16).

The life expectancy at age 65 for females in Havering is 21.6 years, 2.7 years longer than

for males; this is similar to the life expectancy for females in London (21.9 years) but

statistically significantly higher than England female average (21.1 years).

Over a thirteen-year period (of 3-year rolling periods – from 2001-03 to 2014-16), the

life expectancy, at age 65, for females in Havering has increased significantly from 19.0

years to 21.6 years – a 14% increase (see Figure 16).

Figure 16: Life expectancy at age 65 (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and

England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2014-16

Data source: Life Expectancy at 65, 2001-2003 to 2014-2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS);


15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Life

exp

ect

ancy

at

age

65

(ye

ars)

Havering Female London Female England Female

Havering Male London Male England Male

No

te: A

xis

do

es

no

t sta

rt

at o

rigi

n

HAVERING

J S N A

Ethnicity Havering is one of the most ethnically homogenous boroughs in London, with 83% of its

residents recorded as White British in the 2011 census, higher than both London and

England (see Figure 17).

Figure 17: Havering 2011 Census Population, broken down by proportion of White British

and BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic) groups

Data source: Census 2011; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Figure 18 presents the distribution of non-white population17 across Havering wards.

Brooklands, Emerson Park, Romford Town and South Hornchurch are the wards with the

highest proportion of non-white categories.

17

Note that non-white population group excludes minority white ethnic groups

83%

17%

Havering

80%

20%

England45%

55%London

White British BAME

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 18: Percentage of people stating their ethnicity as not White (all non-White

categories) in Havering, by wards


HAVERING

J S N A

The GLA produce estimates of population change by ethnicity. The projections from the 2015

Long-term migration based tool are presented in Figure 19. The white18 population is

projected to decrease from 84% (in 2017) to 78% (in 2032) of the population. It is projected

that the Black African population will increase from 4.1% in 2017 to 5.3% of the Havering

population in 2032. The ethnically homogenous characteristic of Havering is gradually

changing due to its growing cultural diversity.

Figure 19: Projected proportion of Havering population by ethnicity

Data source: GLA 2015 Round Trend-based ethnic group projections, long-term migration scenario

; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

18

Note that white population group includes minority white ethnic groups

HAVERING

J S N A

According to the Census 2011 report, 90% of the residents in Havering were born in the

United Kingdom (UK). A breakdown of the minority proportion of Havering residents born

out of the UK (10% of Havering residents) is presented in Figure 20. It shows that most of the

residents born outside of the UK were born in Ireland, Nigeria, India and Eastern Europe.

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 20: Count and proportion of UK born and non-UK born Havering residents, and breakdown of non-UK born Havering residents (count and

rate per 10,000 of Havering population) by country of birth (plus relative size by world region), 2011


HAVERING

J S N A

People with Disabilities According to the latest ONS Annual Population Survey (Jan 2015-Dec 2015), 19% of working

age19 people living in Havering have disclosed that they have a disability or long term illness.

This is a similar proportion to England (20%).

The estimated number of people in Havering aged 18-64 living with moderate physical

disabilities20 was 11,870 in 2017 – a rate of 7,865 per 100,000 population aged 18-64 years.

This rate is one of the highest among London local authorities. It is statistically similar to

England but significantly higher than the London average (see Figure 21).

Figure 21: Estimated moderate physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years,

in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2017

Note: Rate per 100,000 calculation uses mid 2016 population estimates; Data Source: Projecting Adult

Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2017) and Mid-year population estimates 2016; Office

for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Furthermore, 3,506 adults (aged 18-64 years) were estimated to be living with serious

physical disabilities21 in Havering in 2017. The estimated rate of serious physical disabilities in

19

Since August 2010, the current working age measures have used those aged from 16 to 64 for both men and

women (Office for National Statistics)

20 Moderate physical disability: People with physical disability have an impairment which has a substantial and

long term effect on their ability to carry our day-to-day activities. People with a moderate physical disability have

mobility problems, e.g. unable to manage stairs, and need aids or assistance to walk.

21 People with a severe or serious physical disability would be unable to walk and dependent on a carer for

mobility; First Stop Advice for Older People

6,2

68

6,5

76

6,6

30

6,6

74

6,7

26

6,7

31

6,8

91

6,9

70

6,9

77

6,9

95

6,9

97

6,9

97

7,1

04

7,1

42

7,2

02

7,2

66

7,3

62

7,3

85

7,3

91

7,4

46

7,4

68

7,4

84

7,5

09

7,5

11

7,5

44

7,6

17

7,7

56

7,7

96

7,8

28

7,8

65

7,8

69

8,0

11

8,0

33

7,246

7,818

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Tow

er

Ham

lets

Islin

gto

nH

ackn

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mb

eth

New

ham

Wan

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amG

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am F

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and

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Har

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Bex

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ich

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Rat

e p

er

10

0,0

00

po

pu

lati

on

age

d 1

8-6

4 y

ear

s London rate per 100,000 England rate per 100,000

HAVERING

J S N A

Havering (2,323 per 100,000 population aged 18-64 years) is similar to England but

significantly higher than London average and one of the highest rates of London local

authorities (see Figure 22). The rationale for this is likely due to the relatively older

population in Havering compared to other London boroughs.

Figure 22: Estimated serious physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years, in

Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2017

Note: Rate per 100,000 calculation uses mid 2016 population estimates

Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2017) and Mid-year

population estimates 2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

About 817 adults (aged 18-64 years) are estimated to be living with moderate or severe

learning disabilities22 in Havering in 2015 and hence likely to be in receipt of health and

social care services.

The 2015 estimated rate of moderate or severe learning disabilities in Havering (548 per

100,000 persons aged 18-64 years) is similar to London and England. Havering is estimated

to have the 3rd lowest rate of moderate or severe learning disabilities among London local

authorities (see Figure 23).

22

People with mild/moderate learning disabilities will usually be able to live independently with support and

those with severe learning disabilities need significant help with daily living; Valuing People: A New Strategy for

Learning Disability for the 21st Century Department of Health

1,5

53

1,6

94

1,7

19

1,7

35

1,7

47

1,7

67

1,8

32

1,8

65

1,8

77

1,9

05

1,9

12

1,9

64

1,9

83

1,9

88

2,0

07

2,0

28

2,0

72

2,0

75

2,0

87

2,1

08

2,1

15

2,1

19

2,1

34

2,1

38

2,1

40

2,1

78

2,2

55

2,2

65

2,2

97

2,3

07

2,3

23

2,3

59

2,3

80

2,012

2,298

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tow

er

Ham

lets

Islin

gto

nH

ackn

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mb

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Wan

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Rat

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10

0,0

00

po

pu

lati

on

age

d 1

8-6

4 y

ear

s London rate per 100,000 England rate per 100,000

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 23: Estimated moderate or severe learning disabilities rate per 100,000 persons aged

18-64 years, in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2017

Note: Rate per 100,000 calculations use mid 2016 population estimates

Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2017); calculations uses

Mid-year population estimates 2016; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health

Intelligence

51

55

56

56

05

65

56

65

66

56

75

67

56

75

67

56

85

69

56

95

69

57

05

71

57

15

72

57

35

73

57

45

76

57

65

76

57

75

77

57

85

78

57

85

78

57

95

80

58

5

572

558

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800C

ity

of

Lond

on

Hav

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0,0

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lati

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age

d 1

8-6

4 London rate per 100,000 England rate per 100,000

HAVERING

J S N A

Household Profile

According to the 2011 census, there were a total of 97,200 households with at least one

usual resident23 in Havering but the Council Tax List (as at 31st March 2018) suggests that

there are 105,691 households. Households in Havering are mainly composed of pensioners

and married couples with dependent children. According to the census 2011 report, there

were 40,722 (52%) households in Havering where all adults were working and 16% (12,256)

of households with no adults working.

Household Size Household composition data provides useful information about the domestic circumstances

of people living in Havering. Figure 24, which compares the 2011 Census household data

with previous three censuses, illustrates how households and family structures have changed

in Havering since 1981. Figure 24 shows that, in 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult

households with children under 16 in Havering. This is an increase from 2001 when there

were 4,005 lone parent households. There has also been an increase in the number of one-

adult households with no children. A breakdown of household size in Havering by ward is

presented in Figure 25.

Figure 24: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by Census years

Data source: For 1981,1991,and 2001 – Historic Census Tables by Census Information Scheme, Greater

London Authority, adapted from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) under the Open Government

Licence; For 2011 – Adapted from Census 201124

, ONS; Produced by Public Health Intelligence

23

The usually resident population includes people who reside in the area for a period of at least 12 months

whatever their nationality

24 See next footnote for aggregation method

9,537(11%)

12,514(14%)

14,306(16%)

13,499(14%)

4,640(6%)

7,801(9%)

11,312(12%)

18,933(20%)

40,982(48%)

43,445(49%)

41,288(45%)

35,526(37%)

1,540(2%)

2,417(3%)

4,005(4%)

7,224(7%)

28,014(33%)

22,889(26%)

20,811(23%)

22,017(23%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1981

1991

2001

2011

Percentage of households

Ce

nsu

s Y

ea

r

One Adult Households:

No Children Under 16

(Pensionable Age)


No Children Under 16

(Under Pensionable Age)

Two or more Adult

Households: No Children

Under 16


With Children Under 16

Two or more Adult

Households: With

Children Under 16

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 25: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by ward, 2011

Data source: Adapted from Census 2011

25, Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public

Health Intelligence

25

Category here: Categories in Census 2011 data (KS105EW)

One Adult Households: No children under 16 (Pensionable age): One Person Household; Aged 65 and Over

One Adult Households: No children under 16 (Under Pensionable age): One Person Household; Other AND

One Family Only; Lone Parent; All Children Non-Dependent

One Adult Households: With children under 16: One Family Only; Lone Parent; Dependent Children

Two or more Adult Households: No Children Under 16: One Family Only; All Aged 65 and Over AND One

Family Only; Married or Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple; No Children AND One Family Only; Married or Same-

Sex Civil Partnership Couple; All Children Non-Dependent AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; No Children

AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; All Children Non-Dependent AND Other Household Types; All Full-

Time Students AND Other Household Types; All Aged 65 and Over AND Other Household Types; Other

Two or more Adult Households: With Children Under 16: One Family Only; Married or Same-Sex Civil

Partnership Couple; Dependent Children AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; Dependent Children AND

Other Household Types; With Dependent Children

HAVERING

J S N A

Mosaic Groups Mosaic is a product built by Experian to help understand what types of people live in the UK.

Figure 26 presents the most common Mosaic Groups in Havering – the size of the bubbles

indicates the percentage of the resident population in Havering that falls within each group.

The top five groups (see Table 6) account for 65% of the households in the borough.

Figure 26: Household* Mosaic Groups in Havering, 2016

* The Household Mosaic Group has been used for the vast majority of all households. However, in a minority of

cases (268 out of 103,470), where there was no designated Household Mosaic Group, the Postcode Mosaic Group

was used.

Data Source: Experian’s Mosaic Public Sector 2016; Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Table 6: Top 5 Household* Mosaic groups in Havering, 2016

Group –

Name Typical Profile Picture

One Line

Description Key Features

F – Senior

Security

Elderly people

with assets who

are enjoying a

comfortable

retirement

Elderly singles and

couples

Homeowners

Comfortable homes

Additional pensions

above state

Don't like new

technology

Low mileage drivers

HAVERING

J S N A

Group –

Name Typical Profile Picture

One Line

Description Key Features

E – Suburban

Stability

Mature

suburban

owners living

settled lives in

mid-range

housing

Older families

Some adult children at

home

Suburban mid-range

homes

3 bedrooms

Have lived at same

address some years

Research on Internet

H – Aspiring

Homemakers

Younger

households

settling down in

housing priced

within their

means

Younger households

Full-time employment

Private suburbs

Affordable housing

costs

Starter salaries

Buy and sell on eBay

D – Domestic

Success

Thriving families

who are busy

bringing up

children and

following

careers

Families with children

Upmarket suburban

homes

Owned with a

mortgage

3 or 4 bedrooms

High Internet use

Own new technology

J – Rental

Hubs

Educated young

people privately

renting in urban

neighbourhoods

Aged 18-35

Private renting

Singles and sharers

Urban locations

Young neighbourhoods

High use of

smartphones

* The Household Mosaic Group has been used for the vast majority of all households. However, in a minority of

cases (268 out of 103,470), where there was no designated Household Mosaic Group, the Postcode Mosaic Group

was used.

Data Source: Experian’s Mosaic Public Sector 2016; Produced by Public Health Intelligence

HAVERING

J S N A

Housing Tenure Housing tenure refers to the financial arrangements under which someone has the right to

live in a house or apartment.

The 2015 Annual Population Survey suggested that about 73% of the population in Havering

a home owners (those who own outright and those who bought with a mortgage). This is

one of the highest proportions across London boroughs and higher than London (50%) and

England (65%). A comparison of housing tenure across London is provided in Figure 27.

Figure 27: Proportion of households by housing tenure, London Boroughs, 2015

Data source: Annual Population Survey 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS) via Greater London

Authority published 7

th Dec 2016. Labels may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding. Produced

by Public Health Intelligence

Housing Conditions Housing in Havering is mainly Victorian and Edwardian. According to the last census (2011),

98% of Havering households had central heating. This is higher than London (97.2%) and

England (97.3%). Houses in Havering have an average of 2.8 bedrooms per household. This is

higher than London (2.5%) and England (2.7%).

18%27% 29%

32%

38%44%

24%

17%14%

26%18% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tow

er H

amle

tsW

estm

inst

erIs

ling

ton

Ha

ckn

eyN

ew

ha

mSo

uth

war

kLa

mb

eth

Cam

den

Ken

sin

gto

n a

nd

Ch

else

aH

amm

ersm

ith

and

Fulh

amH

ari

ngey

Bre

nt

Gre

enw

ich

Bar

kin

g an

d D

agen

ham

Ho

un

slo

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wis

ham

Lon

do

nEa

ling

Wa

nd

swo

rth

Enfi

eld

Mer

ton

Hill

ingd

onW

alth

am F

ores

tB

arn

et

Ha

rro

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royd

on

Red

brid

geEn

glan

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ings

ton

up

on

Th

ames

Sutt

on

Bro

mle

yH

ave

rin

gR

ich

mo

nd

up

on

Th

ame

sB

exle

y

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f ho

use

ho

lds

Owned Outright Owned with mortgage Social Rented Private Rented

HAVERING

J S N A

Homelessness The rate of homeless households in temporary accommodation26 (7.2 per 1,000 households)

is significantly lower than London (15.1 per 1,000) but significantly higher than England (3.4

per 1,000). It falls in the highest quartile when compared to other authorities in the 3rd less

deprived decile.

Figure 28: Homeless households in temporary accommodation in Havering, Havering’s

deprivation decile, London and England, crude rate per 1,000 households, 2016-17

Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF - 1.15ii.Households in temporary

Accommodation); Public Health England (PHE); Produced by Public Health Intelligence

The rate of statutory homelessness (eligible homeless people not in priority need)

households27 in Havering (0.5 per 1,000 households), in 2016/17, is significantly lower than

26

Number of homeless households in temporary accommodation awaiting a settled home.

27 For a household to be classified as statutorily homeless, the following must be satisfied:

•They are homeless, defined as those without any right to access secure accommodation for that night i.e. they

are not legal tenants of any property, nor own any property. Or they can also be classed as "potentially homeless"

if they are about to lose their dwelling, be evicted, within 28 days.

•They must have a local connection (lived or worked in the area, family in the area, have a care responsibility or

need care from relatives in the area).

•They are in priority need i.e. have dependent children in them (aged under 16 years) or are an older person

household, or vulnerable.

•The homeless household must not be intentionally homeless i.e. losing their previous accommodation through

their own action such as not paying rent or a mortgage. (Department of Communities and Local Government)

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.4 2.

8 3.9

7.2

10.4

18.2

15.1

2.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

East

Rid

ing

of

York

shir

e

Staf

ford

shir

e

Som

ers

et

Wo

rces

ters

hir

e

No

rth

So

me

rse

t

Shro

psh

ire

Traf

ford

Dev

on

Solih

ull

Pool

e

Esse

x

Swin

do

n

Hav

erin

g

Bex

ley

Bar

net

Ra

te p

er

10

00

ho

use

ho

lds

England London Deprivation decile

HAVERING

J S N A

London (1.1 per 1,000) and England (0.9 per 1,000); However when compared to local

authorities in the same deprivation decile, the rates in Havering are similar (see Figure 29).

Figure 29: Statutory homelessness in Havering, Havering’s deprivation decile, London and

England, crude rate per 1,000 estimated total households, 2016-17

Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF - 1.15i. Eligible homeless people not in

priority need per 1,000 households); Public Health England (PHE); Produced by Public Health

Intelligence

Short-term International Migrant Populations Short-term international migrants are defined as those persons from another country who

stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for reasons other than leisure, business,

pilgrimage or treatment. On average, 201 short-term international migrants arrive in

Havering every year (see Table 7).

The most recent rate of short-term international migrants in Havering (142 per 100,000) is

significantly lower than the rate for London (616 per 100,000 population) and England (280

per 100,000 population). It is also the second lowest of all London local authorities (see

Figure 30) and it is the sixth lowest when compared to Havering’s statistical neighbours (see

Figure 31).

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.9

1.0

2.4 2.

6

0.9

1.1

0.6

0

1

2

3

4

Staf

ford

shir

e

Esse

x

Pool

e

Som

erse

t

Bar

net

Dev

on

Eas

t R

idin

g o

f Yo

rksh

ire

Ha

veri

ng

Swin

do

n

Bex

ley

No

rth

So

mer

set

Wo

rce

ste

rsh

ire

Solih

ull

Shro

psh

ire

Rat

e p

er 1

000

ho

use

ho

lds

England London Deprivation Decile

HAVERING

J S N A

Table 7: Short-term international migration into Havering, migrants satisfying United Nations

definition of a short-term migrant, estimates from the International Passenger Survey, mid-

2011 to mid-2015

Data Source: Short-Term International Migration Annual Report – Year ending mid-2014 estimates;

Office for National Statistics (ONS)


Havering, other London boroughs, London and England

Note: Short-term migration is classified here as a stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for

reasons other than leisure/business/pilgrimage or treatment



Mid-Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5 year average

Estimate 124 180 187 322 353 233

12

91

42

14

41

45

20

53

11

33

94

01

40

14

13

43

54

38

52

15

21

54

45

58

55

85

68

58

15

81

66

66

67

68

66

88 82

88

67

92

41

,00

91

,05

0 1,3

37

1,3

84

1,4

01

616

280

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Sutt

on

Hav

erin

gB

rom

ley

Bex

ley

Ric

hm

on

d u

pon

Th

ames

Cro

ydon

Hill

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on

Lew

ish

amEn

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dW

and

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Kin

gsto

n u

pon

Tha

me

sM

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nR

edb

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mb

eth

Gre

enw

ich

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nsl

ow

Ham

me

rsm

ith

an

d F

ulh

amEa

ling

Bar

kin

g an

d D

agen

ham

Hac

kney

Bar

net

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sin

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else

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amd

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mW

estm

inst

er

Rat

e p

er

10

0,0

00

London rate per 100,000 England rate per 100,000

HAVERING

J S N A


Havering, Havering’s statistical neighbours, London and England

Note: Short-term migration is classified here as a stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for

reasons other than leisure/business/pilgrimage or treatment



28 7

0 12

8

12

9

13

4

14

2

14

2

14

5

15

0

20

5

21

5

21

6

24

5

25

2

27

1

27

9

29

2

30

1

62

2

77

0

88

6

616

280

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000G

osp

ort

Bas

ildo

n

Ru

shm

oo

r

Stev

enag

e

Bro

xbo

urn

e

Med

way

Hav

erin

g

Bex

ley

Dar

tfo

rd

Gra

vesh

am

Har

low

Thu

rro

ck

Wel

lingb

oro

ugh

Glo

uce

ste

r

Ipsw

ich

Swin

do

n

Milt

on

Keyn

es

Wor

cest

er

Cra

wle

y

No

rtha

mp

ton

Pet

erb

oro

ugh

Rat

e p

er

10

0,0

00

London rate per 100,000 England rate per 100,000

HAVERING

J S N A

Traveller Population There were 130 caravans occupied by travellers in Havering as at July 2017. This number is an

increase of 5 from the last six-month count – there has been a steady increase over the past

3 counts (see Table 8). The increase is due 2 extra private caravans on authorized sites and 3

caravans on unauthorized, gypsy owned sites (see Table 8 and Figure 32). About 78% of the

traveller caravans in Havering were on unauthorised sites (though most of them were on

travellers’ own land) and 22% were on authorised sites.

Table 8: Count of Traveller Caravans in Havering, last five counts, Jan 2017 to July 201728

Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Jan 2018; Produced by


28

A ‘tolerated’ site is one where the local authority has decided not to seek the removal of the encampment, and

where the encampment has been, or is likely to be, allowed to remain for an indefinite period of months or years

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

0 0 0 0 0

Temporary Planning

Permission10 10 10 10 10

Permanent Planning

Permission17 17 17 17 19

All Private Caravans 27 27 27 27 29

"Tolerated" 91 92 92 92 95

"Not tolerated" 6 6 4 6 6

"Tolerated" 0 0 0 0 0

"Not tolerated" 35 0 0 0 0

159 125 123 125 130Total (All Caravans)

Month/Year:

Authorised

sites (with

planning

permission)

Socially Rented Caravans

Private Caravans

Unauthorised

sites (without

planning

permission)

Caravans on Sites on

Gypsies' own land

Caravans on Sites on land

not owned by Gypsies

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 32: Distribution of traveller caravans in Havering, by type of site, Jan 2017 and July

2017

Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Jan 2018; Produced by


Social Isolation According to Census 2011, about 32% (13,449) of the population aged 65 years and above

are living in one-person households. Almost half (48%) of all one person households in

Havering are occupied by persons aged 65 years and over, which is the highest proportion in

London29. Older people living alone can be an indicator of social isolation and may require

more support from health and social care services.

29

Census 2011 (Household Composition by Age), Office for National Statistics (ONS)

92; 73%

6; 5

%

95; 73%

6; 5

%

Authorised sites -

temporary planning

permission

Authorised sites -

permanent planning

permission

Unauthorised sites - on

travellers own land

(Tolerated)


travellers own land (Not

Tolerated)


land not owned by

travellers (Not Tolerated)Outer ring: July 2017 count; Inner ring: January 2017 count

HAVERING

J S N A

Economic Profile

Income Despite low deprivation scores and high employment rates, the average gross household

income in Havering (£44,430), as measured in 2012/13, is low in comparison to the London

average of £51,770 and slightly higher than the England average of £39,557. It is in the

lowest third of all London boroughs (see Figure 33).

Figure 33: Total Average Annual Household Income in London Boroughs, 2012/13

Data source: Household Income Estimates, Greater London Authority (GLA) 2012/13; Produced by


£3

4,0

80

£3

4,2

60

£3

9,4

60

£3

9,6

30

£4

1,2

50

£4

2,6

90

£4

3,3

60

£4

4,3

70

£4

4,4

30

£4

4,4

30

£4

4,4

90

£4

4,9

50

£4

5,1

20

£4

5,3

80

£4

5,6

90

£4

5,7

20

£4

5,8

60

£4

8,0

00

£4

8,6

10

£4

9,0

60

£4

9,1

70

£5

4,5

30

£5

4,9

50

£5

5,1

40

£5

6,9

20

£5

7,1

60

£6

2,9

10

£6

6,2

20

£6

7,9

90

£7

6,6

10

£8

0,7

60

£9

9,3

90

£1

16

,35

0

£51,770

£39,557

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

Bar

kin

g an

d D

agen

ham

Ne

wh

amW

alth

am F

ore

stB

ren

tEn

fiel

dH

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ich

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on

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ton

an

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hels

ea

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nu

al In

com

e (£

)

London Average England Average

HAVERING

J S N A

Car Ownership The number of cars and vans available to households in Havering was 117,634 in 2011.

77% of households in Havering have at least one car and compared to other local authorities

in London, Havering has the second highest proportion of households (32.8%) with 2 or

more cars (see Figure 34).

Figure 34: Car or van ownership amongst households across London boroughs, 2011


Child Poverty While the majority of children in Havering are not poor, around 8,800 children aged under16

years live in poverty30. A recent proxy measure of child poverty, produced by Her Majesty’s

Revenue and Customs (HMRC)31, is displayed by wards in Figure 35; Gooshays and Heaton

have the highest percentage of children living in poverty before housing cost (BHC) and after

(AHC). In addition, local quintiles of income deprivation affecting children, as defined by the

‘Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index’ (2015), by LSOA are displayed in Figure 36.

Gooshays and Heaton wards have the highest proportion of children living in poverty

compared to other Havering wards.

30

Source: Havering Health Profile 2015 (online at:

http://www.apho.org.uk/default.aspx?QN=HP_METADATA&AreaID=50279)

31 It measures the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work benefits or in receipt of tax

credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent median income.

64.6

64

.763

.06

2.9

61.1

58.4

57

.85

6.0

55.2

52

.151

.84

8.1

45

.34

3.0

42.0

41

.941

.63

9.6

35.3

33

.532

.632

.53

1.6

28.7

27

.92

5.8

25.1

24.7

23

.72

3.5

23

.523

.423

.022

.7

30

.63

0.5

31

.930

.13

1.8

34.6

34

.734

.23

6.6

38

.038

.24

0.5

43

.239

.54

2.6

42

.14

0.5

43

.344

.24

3.6

47

.743

.345

.04

4.1

45.0

42.2

47

.35

0.2

45.4

43

.945

.646

.24

4.2

43

.8

4.8

4.9

5.1 6.9

7.1

7.1

7.5

9.8 8.1

10.0

9.9

11.3

11

.51

7.5

15

.41

6.1

17.8

17

.12

0.4

22

.919

.724

.22

3.4

27

.22

7.1

32

.127

.62

5.1

30

.93

2.5

30

.93

0.4

32

.83

3.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ha

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No cars or vans in household 1 car or van in household 2 or more cars or vans in household

http://www.apho.org.uk/default.aspx?QN=HP_METADATA&AreaID=50279

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 35: Percentage of children in poverty by ward (before housing costs – BHC; and after

housing costs – AHC), Oct-Dec 2013 estimates

Data Source: End Child Poverty Commission, 2015; London’s Poverty Profile using Her Majesty’s

Revenue and Customs (HMRC) measure; published October 2015; Produced by Public health

Intelligence

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 36: Income deprivation affecting Children, quintiles within Havering LSOA, 2015

Data source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2015 (IMD, 2015); Department for Communities and

Local Government (DCLG), Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Employment and Unemployment The overall employment rate in Havering is higher than the London and England averages. in

Havering 79.8% of working age residents were in employment, between October 2016 and

September 2017; compared to 73.7% and 74.5% in London and England, respectively (See

Figure 37).

Conversely, the proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out-of-work

benefits (6.8%) is lower than London (7.2%) and significantly lower than England (8.4%). This

proportion is displayed for all London Boroughs in Figure 38 and in comparison with

Havering’s ONS statistical comparator group in Figure 39.

Most Deprived

More Deprived

Deprived

Less Deprived

Least Deprived

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 37: Proportion of working age residents in employment by London Borough, October

2016 – September 2017

Data Source: Annual Population Survey (APS); Office for National Statistics (ONS) via NOMIS Office

Labour Market Statistics; Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Figure 38: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in London

Boroughs, October 2016 – September 2017



62.1

66.3

67.0

67.5

67.8

67.9

68.8

68.8

68.9

71.7

72.9

72.9

73.6

73.6

74.5

74.7

74.9

75.1

75.3

75.4

75.7

76.3

76.5

76.8

77.0

77.3

77.4

79.5

79.8

79.9

81.3

82.5

73.7

74.5

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)

London England

HAVERING

J S N A

Figure 39: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in Havering

and ONS statistical comparator group, October 2016 – September 2017



4.4

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5.3

5.8

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.5

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this is havering · 2019-08-30 · o the estimated population of the london borough of havering is...

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