this report is published by euroheat & power whose …...this report is published by euroheat...

This report is published by Euroheat & Power whose aim is to inform about district heating and cooling as efficient and environmentally benign energy solutions that make use of resources that

otherwise would be wasted, delivering reliable and comfortable heating and cooling in return.

This report is the report of Ecoheatcool Work Package 1

The project is co-financed by EU Intelligent Energy Europe Programme. The project time schedule is January 2005-December 2006.

The sole responsibility for the content of this report lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for

any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Up-to-date information about Euroheat & Power can be found on the internet at www.euroheat.org

More information on Ecoheatcool project is available at www.ecoheatcool.org

© Ecoheatcool and Euroheat & Power 2005-2006

Euroheat & Power

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Produced in the European Union

http://www.euroheat.org

http://www.ecoheatcool.org/

ECOHEATCOOL

The ECOHEATCOOL project structure

The European heating and cooling market

(Work package 1 & 2)

Possibilities for District Heating and Cooling in

Europe (Work package 4 & 5)

Target area of EU29 + EFTA3 for heating and cooling

Strategy recommendations (Work package 6)

Information resources: IEA EB & ES Database Housing statistics Urban & rural population Temperature frequencies Market information for heating and cooling

Supply resources: CHP Industrial waste heat Waste incineration Geothermal heat Biomass Free cooling

Output: Heating and cooling demands in various countries and sectors

Output: Possible supply to district heating and cooling systems from CHP, RES and waste heat resources for various countries

Dissemination of results (Work package 7 and 8)

District heating efficiency

(Work package 3)

Principal author: Sven Werner, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

[email protected]

Project co-ordinator: Norela Constantinescu, Euroheat & Power,

[email protected]

With the contribution from

Euroheat & Power, Belgium

Danish District Heating Association, Demark

Finish Energy Association, Finland

German District Heating Association, Germany

Italian District Heating Association, Italy

Austrian Association of Gas and District Heat Supply Companies, Austria

Swedish District Heating Association, Sweden

Norwegian District Heating Association, Norway

Confederation of European Waste to Energy Plants, Belgium

Czech District Heating Association Czech Republic

ECOHEATCOOL Work package 1 2

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Contents

1 Executive summary................................................................................................................................................5

2 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................7

2.1 The European heat market .........................................................................................................................7

2.2 Objective and focus.......................................................................................................................................8

2.3 Target area of 32 European countries ....................................................................................................9

2.4 Energy balances........................................................................................................................................... 10

2.5 Main information source used ............................................................................................................... 12

2.6 Energy conversion efficiencies............................................................................................................... 15

2.7 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 16

3 Industrial heat demands ................................................................................................................................... 17

3.1 Industrial heat demands by branch ..................................................................................................... 17

3.2 Industrial heat demands by countries................................................................................................. 19

3.3 Use of industrial CHP ................................................................................................................................. 21

3.4 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 21

4 Other sector heat demands ............................................................................................................................. 22

4.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 22

4.2 Urban and rural conditions for space heating.................................................................................. 23

4.3 Climatic conditions for space heating................................................................................................. 25

4.4 Building stock for space heating ........................................................................................................... 28

4.5 Heating index for space heating ........................................................................................................... 31

4.6 Indoor temperatures.................................................................................................................................. 33

4.7 Hot water consumption............................................................................................................................ 34

4.8 Other sector heat demands..................................................................................................................... 35

4.9 Specific demands ........................................................................................................................................ 42

4.10 Correlation between residential demands and the new EHI ...................................................... 45

4.11 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 46

5 Summary of European end use of net heat and electricity .................................................................. 47

6 Heating costs......................................................................................................................................................... 50

6.1 Energy taxation and VAT.......................................................................................................................... 50

6.2 Fuel oil, Natural gas and Electricity prices with taxes and VAT .................................................. 50

6.3 District heat ................................................................................................................................................... 54

6.4 Heat cost comparison................................................................................................................................ 55

6.5 National heat costs compared to GDP ................................................................................................ 56

6.6 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 57

7 Suppliers and market actors ............................................................................................................................ 58


7.1 Business models .......................................................................................................................................... 58

7.2 Fuel and electricity supply....................................................................................................................... 58

7.3 District heat supply..................................................................................................................................... 59

7.4 Equipment suppliers.................................................................................................................................. 60

7.5 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 62

8 Conclusions............................................................................................................................................................ 63


1 Executive summary

The main purpose with this report (Work Package 1 of the ECOHEATCOOL project) was to present an overall definition and description of the European heat market during 2003. The target area covers 32 countries, including the EU25 member states, the four accession countries, and three EFTA countries. The definition of the European heat market is the important foundation for the quantification of the benefits of an expanded use of district heating in Europe. This quantification will be performed in the fourth work package of the ECOHEATCOOL project.

Focus was directed towards the demand side of the European energy system and not the supply side. All heat and electricity volumes consider heat (after energy conversion when fuels are used), which is beyond the interface of final consumption used in international energy statistics. However, the origin of the net heat supply is presented. The main information source for the analysis has been the IEA energy balances for OECD and non-OECD countries for 2003.

The total heat demands in the target area have been estimated by the sum of net heat and electricity end use. Net heat has been estimated as the sum of geothermal heat, solar heat, district heat, and heat generated from the end use of fuels. Electricity use was included since some electricity is used for space heating and hot water preparation. Indoor use of electricity contributes also to the heat balances of buildings, since all electricity use converts into heat in the final end.

Industrial demands have been estimated to be 8,7 EJ of net heat used and 4,4 EJ electricity. The industrial customers paid 120 billion EUR for these services, including national energy taxes and excluding VAT.

The total demands in the residential, service, and agriculture sectors (also recognised as the others sector in international energy statistics) was 13,0 EJ of net heat and 5,9 EJ of electricity. The total corresponding customer cost was 270 billion EUR, including national energy taxes and excluding VAT.

The demands in the others sector consists mainly of space heating. Therefore, influencing factors as urban versus rural conditions, climatic conditions, and building floor areas have been reviewed. Most of the heat demands appear in urban areas. A new European heating index (EHI) has been invented and introduced in order to explain the geographical distribution of the average specific space heating demands in Europe. The total floor area of residential buildings has been estimated to 20,9 billion m2, while the corresponding service sector area was estimated to 7,0 billion m2. Together, this is almost equal to the land area of Belgium.

Major unknown factors in the space heating demands are the indoor temperatures used and national averages of hot water consumption. More detailed national field studies of these parameters would contribute to a better understanding of the heat market.

The total end use of net heat and electricity was then 32,1 EJ in the target area during 2003. The final transportation demand can be estimated to only 2,6 EJ. The total primary energy supply was 81,1 EJ, while the final energy consumption was 57,3 EJ. This gives the total heat losses in the energy transformation sector to 23,8 EJ, while the heat losses in the consuming sectors was 22,6 EJ, mainly in the transportation sector. Hence, the amazing conclusion is then that the final net heat demands of 21,7 EJ has the same magnitude as the total heat losses in the energy transformation sector. Europe has huge heat losses to be retrieved.


Furthermore, national heating costs, a heat cost comparison between natural gas and district heat, heat market rules, business models, market actors, and equipment suppliers are presented and mentioned.

The five major conclusions from this assessment are:

• The final demand of heat dominates the demand side in the European energy system. • The final demand of heat is dominated by the supply of natural gas and electricity. • About the same specific heat demands appear in Western, Central, Eastern, and Northern

Europe for the residential and service sectors. • The international energy statistics concerning heat deliveries can be further improved. • Existing district heating systems can expand further and new systems can be implemented.


2 Introduction

2.1 The European heat market Heat is used for various purposes in order to fulfil demands in the European final energy consumption. High and medium temperatures heat demands appear mainly within the industry for melting, evaporating, and drying processes. Space heating and domestic hot water supply is the most common low temperature demands appearing in residential, commercial, public, and industrial buildings. Some heat is also used for cooking. Different community sectors have different heat demands depending on activity.

The heat is mainly created from primary energy supply by conversion of the calorific value of various fuels as coal, peat, fuel oil, natural gas, wood chips and pellets, and firewood. Electricity is also easily used for all heat demands at different temperature levels. Heat pumps and solar collectors generate small amounts of low temperature heat. Considerable amounts of heat are retrieved from industrial, power, and waste incineration processes. This heat is normally retrieved far from the heat demands, so urban district heating systems are used for gathering, complementing peak and back up supply, distribution, and customer supply. All these various heat supply methods give different amounts of primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions.

Various heat carriers are also used for short or long heat transfer from the heat sources to the final demands: flue gases, air, water, steam or highly specialised heat transfer fluids. Water is the most common heat carrier in both space and district heating systems.

The heat market has also developed by time. Romans using hypocausts for distribution of flue gases below floors in buildings managed the first more organised space heating. Steam heating emerged during the 18th and the 19th centuries, mainly for industrial sites. However, it was first during the 20th century when the residential space heating became more organised. The space heat market evolved then from using coal and firewood in simple inefficient fireplaces to efficient boilers and central heating in buildings. The first institutional European district heating systems were built in the late 19th century and the first city-based European commercial district heating system was started in Hamburg in 1921.

Due to various climatic, national, regional, and local conditions, space heating demands have been met in many different ways in Europe. In some countries, the use of natural gas in local boilers dominates. In other countries, district heating systems dominate the low temperature heat market. The annual heat demands are low in the Mediterranean area, so the space heating is by tradition not highly organised. The European heat market is therefore highly diversified, offering and using many different solutions in order to satisfy the final customer demands at an acceptable cost.

Hence, the European heat market has eight dimensions, with respect to primary energy supply, emissions, heat carriers, heat demands, community sectors, locations (countries), time, and cost. No coherent and harmonised description exists of the European heat market. The current magnitude of this market is not yet defined. Four different units for heat are used in various descriptions: Tons of oil equivalents, Joules, Watt-hours, and Calories. When the total heat demand is summed up, calorific values of fuels for boilers are often used and added to heat amounts delivered from district heating system or electric heating, neglecting the actual local conversion losses in individual boilers.


2.2 Objective and focus The main objective for this report is to give a coherent, defined, and harmonised description of the total European heat market concerning the heat demand, sector, location, and cost dimensions during 2003. This objective and narrow focus give the following implications for the eight dimensions of this heat market:

• TIME: The time dimension is reduced to only consider the year 2003, since neither a detailed description of the historic evolution of the heat market will be included nor will forecasts for the future be presented.

• HEAT DEMAND: The main focus is on the final end use on the demand side. All heat amounts presented refer to heat obtained after energy conversion from fuels or heat obtained in other ways. But since no real international heat use statistics is available, the corresponding energy supply statistics is used for estimations instead. General energy conversion factors are assumed and used for various fuels and sectors. Only one unit (Joule) for heat is used, including multiples of this unit (MJ, GJ, TJ, PJ, and EJ). Joule is the standard unit for heat in the international “Système international d’unités” system, finally adopted in 1960.

• SECTORS: The focus is the industrial and other sectors as final energy use sectors. The other sectors are a common label in international energy statistics for gathering the agriculture, residential, and service sectors, where the service sector gathers all activities in public and commercial buildings. The transportation and energy transformation sectors are neglected in the analysis. However, the transportation sector is another heat market, since heat engines dominate that sector.

• LOCATIONS: The perspective is the existing variation within Europe issue-by-issue, not country-by-country. Hence, no detailed descriptions for every country will be given. Countries are only labels in each diagram or discussion topics in the text. Throughout this report, few absolute national magnitudes will be presented in figures, tables and diagrams. The focus is to show the structure of the European heat market, so relative values as per capita, per m2, percentages will be used for the various locations. The total magnitude of each national heat market depends firstly from the size of the population. Background values for countries are reported in the enclosed appendix.

• COST: The final cost for customers are estimated by including national taxes, but excluding VAT.

• PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY: This dimension is not included in this report. However, the origin of heat generated is presented for fuels used directly by end users. But the origin for electricity and district heat is not traced. Primary energy supply for district heat will be highlighted in the WP4 report.

• EMISSIONS: Carbon dioxide emissions are also neglected in this report, since these emissions are associated to the primary energy supply and the succeeding energy conversion, not to the final heat demands.

• HEAT CARRIERS: The various heat carriers used for heat distribution at final end users are not included in the analysis.

This report will form the foundation for estimating the implications from expanding existing and establishing new district heating systems in the succeeding report within the ECOHEATCOOL project. This next report will focus on primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emission reductions due to district heating.


2.3 Target area of 32 European countries The target area for this heat market assessment is 32 European countries. These countries are:

• the current EU25, divided into two sub-groups: the former EU15 before May 2004 and NMS10, the ten new member states from the enlargement in May 2004

• the four accession countries in the ACC4 group (Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, and Croatia)

• the EFTA countries in the EFTA3 group (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland).

These four sub-groups, defined according to Table 1, will be used throughout the report. The 32 countries vary in size with respect to population according to Figure 1.

Table 1. The 32 countries examined divided into to four different groups.

EU15 NMS10 ACC4 EFTA3Austria Cyprus Bulgaria IcelandBelgium Czech Republic Croatia NorwayDenmark Estonia Romania SwitzerlandFinland Hungary TurkeyFrance LatviaGermany LithuaniaGreece MaltaIreland PolandItaly Slovak RepublicLuxembourg SloveniaNetherlandsPortugalSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Aus

tria,

EU

15

Bel

gium

, EU

15

Den

mar

k, E

U15

Finl

and,

EU

15

Fran

ce, E

U15

Ger

man

y, E

U15

Gre

ece,

EU

15

Irela

nd, E

U15

Italy

, EU

15

Luxe

mbo

urg,

EU

15

Net

herla

nds,

EU

15

Por

tuga

l, E

U15

Spa

in, E

U15

Sw

eden

, EU

15

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

, EU

15

Cyp

rus,

NM

S10

Cze

ch R

epub

lic, N

MS

10

Est

onia

, NM

S10

Hun

gary

, NM

S10

Latv

ia, N

MS

10

Lith

uani

a, N

MS

10

Mal

ta, N

MS

10

Pol

and,

NM

S10

Slo

vak

Rep

ublic

, NM

S10

Slo

veni

a, N

MS

10

Bul

garia

, AC

C4

Cro

atia

, AC

C4

Rom

ania

, AC

C4

Turk

ey, A

CC

4

Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

way

, EFT

A3

Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

A3

Population, million

Figure 1. Average population during 2003 in the 32 countries examined. Source: Eurostat online database 2005.


2.4 Energy balances The total energy balance for the target area during 2003 is presented in Figure 2. The various steps in the energy supply are divided into three different added bars: Total primary energy supply, Total final consumption and Estimated final end use.

The total primary supply of 81,1 EJ contains the total calorific value of all fuels and other energy amounts supplied to satisfy the total energy demand. The second added bar contains all energy commodities used by all community sectors. The difference between the two first added bars reflects what occurs in the energy transformation sector, including power generation, oil refining, central heat generation for district heating systems, and distribution losses in electricity and heat distribution systems. The figure reveals that all hydro and nuclear resources and most of the coal was used for generating electricity, while most of the petroleum products, natural gas, and combustible renewables are transferred directly to the final energy consumers in the different community sectors. The total heat losses from the energy transformation sector were huge, 23,8 EJ, corresponding to 29 % of all primary energy supply. Most of this heat was lost in thermal power generation due to low conversion efficiencies. So higher conversion efficiencies in thermal power plants would considerably reduce the energy supply for electricity generation and the associated carbon dioxide emissions.

For final consumption, 10,7 EJ electricity and 1,9 EJ heat (mainly district heat) were delivered. These amounts correspond to 18 and 3,2 % of the total final energy consumption of 57,3 EJ.

The third added bar contains the estimated final end use of heat for various purposes, electricity for power and lightning, and finally power for overcoming friction, speed change, altitudes, and air resistance in transportation. Heat amounts to more than 20 EJ, while electricity use was 10,4 EJ, since some electricity was used for transportation purposes. Also in this third step, the heat losses were huge from high temperature industrial processes, heat generation in local boilers, and conversion losses from engines in vehicles.

The total final energy consumption from the second added bar in Figure 2 are divided into three main sectors (industry, transport, and others) in Figure 3. The other sector includes the agriculture, residential, public, and commercial sectors (omitting the industry, transport, and energy sectors). Most of the final heat demands appear in the industry and other sectors, being the focus in this heat market analysis.

The energy demand in the transport sector is neglected in this report, although major heating and cooling demands appear in this sector. Most of the transportation heat demands in cold countries are met by retrieving conversion heat losses from engines (similar to combined heat and power). Some minor heat demands during non-operation are met directly by using electricity or fuels in car and engine heaters. All transportation cooling demands are met by extra fuel supply to engines feeding small mechanical chillers. In theory, it would be possible to generate cold in small absorption chillers using the high temperature engine conversion heat losses.

The major conclusion from this simple energy balance analysis is that the huge total heat losses correspond to more than half of the total energy supply. A future European energy system must reduce these losses in order to increase the energy efficiency, reduce the carbon dioxide emissions, and increase the security of supply. The heat sector in general and the district heat sector in particular could contribute to meet these objectives, by using existing heat losses in the energy system to satisfy local heat demands on the European heat market.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Total Primary EnergySupply

Total Final Consumption Total End Use (estimated)

EJLosses in the energy transformationsectorLosses in end use

Combustible Renewables and Waste

Solar/Wind/Other

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Petroleum Products

Coal and Coal Products

Transportation

Electricity

Heat

EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 during 2003Total Primary Energy Supply = 81,1 EJ

Figure 2. Energy balances for EU25+ACC4+EFTA3 during 2003. Heat in the Total Final Consumption bar considers commercial heat deliveries, mostly through district heating systems, while heat in the Total End Use bar considers all heat used by end users, except heat generated from electricity, still allocated to the electricity area.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total Industry Sector Total Transport Sector Total Other Sectors

EJ Combustible Renewables and Waste

Solar/Wind/Other

Geothermal

Natural Gas

Petroleum Products


Electricity

Heat

EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 during 2003Total Final Consumption = 57,3 EJ

Figure 3. Final energy consumption for EU25+ACC4+EFTA3 during 2003. Heat for the industrial and other sectors considers commercial heat deliveries, mostly through district heating systems. The major part of the heat delivered from industrial CHP plants is not included.


2.5 Main information source used The database of international energy balances from International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris has been chosen as the main information source for this analysis of the European heat market. This database is divided between OECD and non-OECD countries and contains four dimensions: Countries, Years, Sectors, and Energy sources. Through an intelligent user interface, it is possible to download any possible combination of these four dimensions.

The IEA energy balance database contains one column denoted to heat, which “shows the disposition of heat produced for sale”. This is mainly district heat, but some direct heat deliveries to final customers are also included. Pending national conditions, the actual fraction of district heat varies among countries. This section will end with a European estimation of the district heat share of these commercial heat deliveries. Hence, the term “heat” throughout this report is equal to the amount of heat accounted in the heat column in the IEA energy balance database.

An alternative information source could have been the Eurostat energy balance information in the NEWCRONOS database available at the Eurostat webpage. A comparison performed in Figure 4 reveals that existing information in the Eurostat database corresponds very well to the IEA Energy Balance database. However, the Eurostat energy balance database contains no information for three countries with respect to significant heat deliveries: France, Italy, and Switzerland. A large deviation also appears for Germany. No significant information can be found in the Eurostat database beyond what can be found in the IEA database. Hence, the IEA database has a wider degree of retrieval with respect to heat deliveries.

In the IEA energy balances, some discrepancies appear between the heat deliveries reported and national or Euroheat & Power information available about district heat deliveries. This situation is summarised in Figure 5. These discrepancies between IEA and national information appear for 2003:

1. Spain, Malta, and Cyprus: Heat deliveries are totally missing. This eems to be correct, since no district heating systems have been identified during 2003 in these countries.

2. Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg, Greece, and Ireland: Heat deliveries are reported by IEA for these five countries, where no national or Euroheat information is available.

3. Italy and Turkey: All heat deliveries are missing in the IEA energy balances. Italian heat deliveries during 2003 were 17,3 PJ according to Associazione Italiana Riscaldamento Urbano, the Italian District Heating Association (AIRU, 2004). In Turkey, 13 small geothermal district heating systems are known (Mertoglu, 2005). However, direct use of geothermal heat is reported in the IEA database for both Italy (9,1 PJ) and Turkey (32,8 PJ).

4. Netherlands, Germany, Finland, and Slovak republic: Heat deliveries are higher than reported by the national district heating associations. For Netherlands, heat deliveries (97,7 PJ) are more than 4 times higher than the district heat deliveries (21,1 PJ) reported by (EnergieNed, 2004), the Dutch association of energy suppliers. For Germany, 354 PJ is reported in the IEA energy balances, while (AGFW; 2004) only reports 284 PJ. No heat delivery is allocated to the service sector in the IEA energy balances, but 307 PJ for the residential sector. The (AG Energiebilanzen, 2004) reports 161 PJ for the residential sector and 106 PJ for the service sector. For Finland, 159 PJ is higher than the 110 PJ reported by (SKY, 2004), the former Finnish district heating association. For Slovak republic, 43,0 PJ is higher than the 25,8 PJ reported by TZS, the Slovakian District Heating Association. Some of these discrepancies can be explained by that all heat-delivering companies are not members of the national associations. Similar minor discrepancies appear also in other countries.

5. France and Iceland: Heat deliveries are lower than reported by national district heating associations. In France, heat deliveries of 27,5 PJ in IEA Energy Balances are much lower than the 86,4 PJ of district heat deliveries reported by (SNCU, 2003), the French District Heating Association. All heat deliveries are allocated to the service sector, giving no heat


deliveries to the residential sector in France. For Iceland, the IEA heat deliveries are 8,8 PJ, while Samorka reports 18,4 PJ of district heat deliveries through (Euroheat & Power, 2005). IEA energy balances reports further 2,3 + 21,8 PJ of direct use of geothermal heat in the industrial and other sectors, giving a IEA total of 32,9 PJ. In (Ragnarsson, 2005), a total of 23,8 PJ was reported as direct use of all geothermal heat including all district heating systems and the Reykjavik Energy alone delivered 10,7 PJ during 2003. So the IEA heat delivery for 2003 of 8,8 PJ is actually less than the annual delivery of the largest district heating system and the IEA total of 32,9 PJ seems to be an overestimation.

6. Switzerland, Czech republic, Poland, and Hungary: Heat deliveries are somewhat (between 8 and 19 %) lower than national information about district heat deliveries.

A heat delivery in the IEA energy balance database is defined as based on heat produced for sale. The high correlation in Figure 5 reveals that this definition corresponds very well to heat deliveries from traditional urban district heating systems. The following major discrepancies appear:

• Netherlands, about 80 % of the heat deliveries of 97,7 PJ can be allocated to heat deliveries from local, mostly industrial, combined heat and power plants to a third party, explaining the discrepancy identified above.

• United Kingdom, most of the heat deliveries of 75,1 PJ origin from local combined heat and power plants. Some few ordinary district heating systems exist (Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton, London-Whitehall, London-Charterhouse Street, Lerwick etc).

• Finland, IEA heat deliveries of 159 PJ also include direct deliveries of heat from CHP plants to industries, since (SKY, 2004) reports 96 % of all other sector heat deliveries, but only 18 % of the industrial heat deliveries.

• Portugal, a similar situation appears probably with local heat deliveries from combined heat and power plants, since heat deliveries was 9,5 PJ, with 93 % to industrial customers. Only one minor district heating system (Lisbon-Parque das Nações) with annual heat sales of 0,1 PJ have been identified.

Hence, discrepancies appear partly from different definitions of a heat delivery and partly from errors in the reporting routines to Eurostat and IEA. It is obvious that the largest reported errors appear for Germany, France, Italy, and Iceland. Minor errors appear for Switzerland and Poland.

All these discrepancies are accepted in this report and are not manually adjusted from national information available. However, the discrepancies are mentioned when appropriate and when various issues are analysed and discussed.

In total, the IEA energy balances reports 1,86 EJ of heat deliveries for the target area during 2003. Corresponding volume from Eurostat was 2,13 EJ, while national information ends up with 1,76 EJ. After assessing various discrepancies, true district heat deliveries can be estimated to be 1,76 EJ including some minor revisions. Further 0,21 EJ in the IEA database consider direct deliveries to customers from CHP plants, giving a true total of 1,97 EJ, which should be compared to the actual IEA total of 1,86 EJ.

This concluding analysis shows that 89 % of the heat deliveries in the IEA energy balance for 2003 was district heat. The remaining 11 % consider other direct heat deliveries. However, actual heat deliveries should have been 6 % higher, due to missing district heat deliveries, mainly in France and Italy.


Heat deliveries during 2003 in various European countries, Correlation between two different information sources

0

1

10

100

1000

0 1 10 100 1000

Eurostat energy balance, PJ

IEA

ene

rgy

bala

nce,

PJ

200%

Equal

-70%

France

Germany

Switzerland

Ireland

Figure 4. Comparison between the Eurostat and IEA energy balance databases concerning total heat deliveries for 2003.

Heat deliveries during 2003 in various European countries, Correlation between two different information sources

0

1

10

100

1000

0 1 10 100 1000National or Euroheat district heating information, PJ

IEA

ene

rgy

bala

nce,

PJ

200%

Equal

-70%

Italy

FranceIceland

Slovak republic

Netherlands

Belgium

Portugal

Luxembourg

FinlandGermany

Ireland

Greece

Figure 5. Comparison between the IEA energy balance database concerning total heat deliveries for 2003 and corresponding information from Euroheat or various national information sources.


2.6 Energy conversion efficiencies The focus and interface in this project is the actual heat demands in Europe. In order to estimate these demands, comparable information about heat amounts must be used. Calorific values of fuels used for generating heat should not be added to other heat amounts from district heating systems. But the final interface in the IEA database contains only supply of fuels for final consumption when fuels are used for generating heat. The whole situation is summarised in Figure 6.

In order to estimate actual final heat demands, general averages of energy conversion efficiencies according to Table 2 have been used. Fuels have efficiencies lower than 100% in order to compensate for local conversion losses.

Table 2. Energy conversion efficiencies used for estimation of final heat demands.

Coal and Coal

Products

Petroleum Products Natural Gas Geothermal Solar/Wind/

Other


Electricity Heat

Industrial sector 85% 85% 90% 100% 100% 85% 100% 100%Other sector 64% 78% 85% 100% 100% 64% 100% 100% Source: Fuel supply efficiencies for the other sector are cited from Appendix 4 of (BRE, 2002) for 2005, all other efficiencies are own assumptions.

All Primary Energy Supply for the industrial and others sector

The Energy Transformation Sector (oil refineries, power plants, and district heating systems)

Local conversion of fuels to heat

Net heat used

Final heat demand Human metabolism

Geothermal and solar heat

Electricity

Unrefined fuels

Refined fuels

Heat

Interface for this project

Interface for final consumption in the IEA energy balances

Figure 6. Presentation of the interface in the IEA energy balances and the interface in this project.


2.7 References

AG Energiebilanzen, Alle tabellen der vorläufigen Auswertungstabellen zur Energiebilanz, October 2004, available at http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/

AGFW, Hauptbericht der Fernwärmeversorgung 2003. Frankfurt am Main, October 2004.

AIRU, Il riscaldamento in Italia nel 2003. Foglio di Collegamento, Annuario, Settembre 2004.

BRE, Labeling and other measures for heating systems in dwellings. Final technical report, SAVE-project 4.1031/Z/99-283, January 2002.

Energiened, Energy in the Netherlands 2004 – facts & figures. Arnhem, June 2004.

Euroheat & Power, District Heating and Cooling, country by country survey 2005. Brussels 2005.

Eurostat, the online database for Energy and Environment, table es_106a, available at the Eurostat website epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int

IEA, Energy balances for OECD countries 1960-2003, available on CD-ROM or online at www.iea.org , Paris 2005.

IEA, Energy balances for non-OECD countries 1971-2003, available on CD-ROM or online at www.iea.org , Paris 2005.

Mertoglu O, Geothermal applications in Turkey, Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2005, Turkey, April 2005.

Ragnarsson A, Geothermal development in Iceland 2000-2004, Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2005, Turkey, April 2005.

SNCU, Enquete Chauffage Urbain – Année 2002, Décembre 2003.

SKY, District Heating in Finland 2003. Suomen Kaukolämpö ry, Helsinki 2004.


http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/

http://www.epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/

http://www.iea.org/

http://www.iea.org/

3 Industrial heat demands

3.1 Industrial heat demands by branch Industrial heat demands are characterised with a wide diversity with respect to temperature levels, branches, countries, and energy supply, since many different industrial processes appear and the energy supply can differ from country to country due to local conditions.

Three different temperature levels have been used in Figure 7 for describing the quality of the demand for heat to be used in various industrial branches:

• Low temperature level is defined as lower than 100ºC, corresponding to the typical heat demands for space heating. The heat is used in low temperature industrial processes as washing, rinsing, and food preparation. Some heat is also used for space heating of industrial buildings and on-site hot water preparation.

• Medium temperature level is represented by an interval between 100ºC and 400ºC. This heat is normally supplied through steam as a local heat carrier. The purpose is often to evaporate or to dry.

• High temperature level constitutes temperature levels over 400ºC. This high quality is needed for manufacture of metals, ceramics, and glass etc. These temperatures can be created by using hot flue gases, electric induction etc.

According to the Figure 7, the chemical, non-metallic mineral, and basic metal industries have the highest temperature demands. Other branches use more medium and low temperature heat. In total, high temperature demands dominate by 43 % of the total demand of 11,8 EJ. Low and medium temperature demands corresponds to 30 and 27 %, respectively.

High and medium temperature processes often generate waste heat with temperature enough to be recovered in district heating systems. Medium and low temperature processes can be supplied with heat from industrial combined heat and power plants. Low temperature heat demands can also be satisfied from district heat deliveries.

End use of net heat and electricity for various industrial branches is shown in Figure 8 by origin of energy supply source. The conversion efficiencies from Table 2 have been used when estimating the net heat amounts from fuels. The total demand was 13,2 EJ, with 4,4 EJ for electricity and 8,7 EJ for net heat used. The discrepancy compared to Figure 7 constitutes electricity for transportation purposes and an estimating error due to different conversion efficiencies used.

The metal, chemical, non-metallic mineral, food, and paper & pulp industries are the most heat demanding branches. The industrial energy supply is dominated by electricity (34 %) and natural gas (31%). District heat has a minor market share of 3,4 %, due to some deliveries to the chemical and some non-specified industries.

Combustible renewables and waste have a total market share of 4,8 %. These fuels are mainly used in the paper & pulp (61 %) and wood industries (17 %). The biomass use in the Finnish and Swedish paper & pulp industry corresponds alone for 39 % of the total market share of combustible renewables and waste for industrial demands in the whole target area.


Estimated industrial heat demands by quality forEU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 during 2003

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Basic

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uarry

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Food a

nd Tob

acco

Pulp &

pape

r

Others

PJ

High, over400°C

Medium,100-400°C

Low, below100°C

Figure 7. Industrial heat demands estimated by temperature quality and by manufacturing branch for the whole target area of 32 countries. The figure has been created by using experiences from the German industry reported in (AGFW, 2005) and applied on the IEA database for the target area.

Industrial end use of net heat and electricity for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 during 2003 for various branches

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PJSolar/Wind/Other

Combustible Renewablesand WasteCoal and Coal Products

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Electricity

Geothermal

Heat

Figure 8. Industrial end use of net heat and electricity by origin of supply for the whole target area of 32 countries.


3.2 Industrial heat demands by countries The industrial end use of net heat and electricity per capita by country is presented in Figure 9. The industrial energy consumption level is high in Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Belgium due to high fractions of energy intensive industries.

The highest GJ per capita deliveries of commercial heat to the industrial sector can be found in Finland (10,6), Netherlands and Czech Republic (3,2 each), Luxembourg and Poland (2,1 each), and Hungary (2,0). The region average is 0,8 GJ. As stated earlier in section 2.5, direct heat deliveries are included in the IEA energy balances for both Finland and Netherlands. These deliveries are deliveries to industrial customers from CHP plants.

The corresponding market shares is shown in Figure 10, revealing that high market shares for heat appear in Hungary (15 %), Poland (13 %), Finland (12 %), Netherlands and Czech republic (10 %), Bulgaria (9 %), and Lithuania and Estonia (8 % each). The overall average market share in the target area is only 3,4 %, so in these countries, district heat deliveries to the industrial sector are 3-5 times higher than the region average.

The industrial use of district heat was high in the former CEE planned economies. Transition to market economy has reduced this historical high consumption, explaining most of the district heat recession in these countries during the last 15 years. The use of district heat for industrial purposes has now reached a stable level.

Industrial heat demands do normally not correlate with the outdoor temperature, since the used industrial temperature levels are much higher than the outdoor temperature. Figure 11 shows how the industrial end use per capita varies with the climate, revealing that countries with high per capita demands are located in cold climates. This gives an opportunity to cooperate with local domestic heat supply, if the local conditions are suitable.

The total demand was 13,2 EJ, with 4,4 EJ of electricity and 8,7 EJ of net heat used, thereof 0,44 EJ delivered as district heat.

Industrial end use of net heat and electricity,

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Heat GeothermalElectricity Natural GasPetroleum Products Coal and Coal ProductsCombustible Renewables and Waste Solar/Wind/Other

Figure 9. Final industrial consumption of net heat and electricity per capita during 2003.


Industrial end use of net heat and electricity,

market shares

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Figure 10. Market shares for industrial end use of net heat and electricity during 2003.

0

20

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120

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Annual average outdoor temperature for the capital in each country, °C

Industrial end use of net heat and

electricity, GJ/capita

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Iceland

Finland

Luxembourg

Sweden

Norway

Belgium

Figure 11. Correlation between national climate and industrial end use of net heat and electricity.


3.3 Use of industrial CHP The (IEA, 2005) database about electricity generation in OECD countries contains information about electricity generation in CHP plants by country and by industrial branch. This gives the opportunity to check the relative use of industrial CHP for industrial heat demands in the 23 OECD countries in the target area. The power-to-heat ratio between the industrial CHP electricity generated and the net heat generated from fuels used has been chosen as measure in Figure 12.

The highest ratios are obtained in Finland, Spain, Turkey, Portugal, and Sweden, all having ratios between 7 and 13%. The possible upper limits for theses national ratios are the installed power-to-heat-ratios in conventional steam CHP plants of 30-60% and in gas combined cycle CHP plants of 90-130%. But with respect to the high fractions of medium and high temperature industrial processes, the full potential of using low temperature CHP heat for industrial processes is however limited.

The industrial branch having the highest ratio of industrial CHP electricity generation is the Paper, Pulp and Printing branch. The effective average ratio is 17 % for the 16 countries presenting detailed information. The highest national ratios in this branch appear in United Kingdom and Austria (26 % each), Turkey (24 %), Netherlands (22 %), and Finland and Portugal (19 % each).

Information from (Eurostat, 2003) reveals that the total heat generation from industrial CHP plants was 1,46 EJ during 2000 in EU15. The corresponding electricity generation was 145,3 TWh, giving an effective power-to-heat ratio of 36 %, when industrial CHP is used.

Effective power-to-heat ratio for industrial CHP electricity generated and net heat derived from fuels for the industrial sector in 19 European OECD countries

during 2003

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ey, A

CC

4

Icel

and,

EFT

A3

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way

, EFT

A3

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itzer

land

, EFT

A3

Figure 12. Effective power-to-heat ratio for electricity generated from industrial CHP plants and net heat generated in the industrial sector in various countries. Information is only available from 19 European of the 23 OECD countries in the target area. Missing information from France and Germany, while no industrial CHP plants appear in Norway and Iceland.

3.4 References AGFW, Perspektiven der Fernwärme und Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung – Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen aus der AGFW-studie “Pluralistische Wärmeversorgung”. Frankfurt am Main 2005.

Eurostat, CHP Plants statistics 2000. Statistics in focus, theme 8 – 12/2003.

IEA Electricity Information 2005, Paris 2005.


4 Other sector heat demands This chapter contains both a description of the factors influencing and an analysis of the other sector heat demands. After an introductory background, the following factors influencing space heat demands are presented:

• Urban and rural conditions

• Climatic conditions

• Existing building stocks

• A new heating index is introduced in this assessment for explaining expected European variations in space heating demands

• Indoor temperatures

A short survey of hot water demands is then given before reaching the analysis of the European other sector heat demands. By combining the heat demands with the building stock information, specific heat demands are then estimated. Finally, the correlation between the specific heat demands for the residential sector and the new heating index is checked.

4.1 Background The heat demands in the other sector consist mostly of space heating and hot water supply in residential, public, and commercial buildings. Hence, the other sector heat demands are highly associated to energy and heat balances for buildings. But the agricultural sector is also a part of the other sector, containing some non-building energy use. Therefore, some following diagrams consider only the residential sector or the service sector (adding up all public and commercial buildings) in order to delete agricultural demands in the analysis.

The most common way of meeting the other sector heat demands in Europe is to use the calorific value of a fuel, convert it into heat in a local boiler, and locally distribute the heat inside the building. However, all heat released from fuels cannot be used for the building heat demands, since some heat is lost in local conversion losses. Heat can also be directly transferred from a district heating system or a local geothermal well without any local heat losses in the building. The national sums of heat converted from fuels and heat from district and geothermal systems are called net heat use in this report.

Electricity is also used to heat buildings, either by electric boilers or by electric panel radiators, or for preparation of hot domestic water in water heaters. This electricity fraction of the heat demands cannot be identified in the IEA energy balances, but some national fractions are available for parts of the other sector. However, these national estimations will not be used here.

All use of electricity energy is converted into heat sooner or later. If the electricity is used inside buildings, this waste heat from electricity use contributes to the heat supply together with other heat supply to balance the space heating demand. One can say that the electricity is used twice: The first time for its primary purpose and the second time when contributing to the heat supply. If electricity is used outside the building, the waste heat is lost without any secondary use.

Primary use of electricity contributing to the heat supply is lighting, cooking, supply air ventilation systems, and indoors electric appliances as refrigerators and freezers, but only during the heating season. Also gas used for cooking contributes. The corresponding use of electricity and gas during the non-heating season contributes to the cooling demand. Electricity used for outdoors application, cooling, and exhaust air ventilation systems do not contributes to the heat balances for heating and cooling, since the corresponding heat is normally released outside the buildings.


The real fraction of electricity converted to heat inside buildings is of course unknown. Further heat is also emitted inside the buildings due to human metabolism.

In this project, the sum of net heat and electricity end use is considered to be a first estimate of the total heat demand in the other sector in the target area of countries. This user perspective is not the normal perspective in energy market report, since the supply perspective dominates heavily. In the following text and diagrams, all amounts refer to the overall sums of net heat and electricity end use. No diagram is associated to the calorific value of fuels.

Throughout this project, some inspiration has been obtained from other recently DG TREN-funded project, partially having a focus on the heat supply to the other sector:

• Lower carbon futures for European households (ECI, 2000). The focus was domestic gas and electricity consumption and the future carbon dioxide emissions.

• Labelling and other measures for heating systems in buildings (BRE, 2002). The focus was the stock of heating systems, the boiler market, and how better conversion efficiencies would reduce future carbon dioxide emissions.

• Domestic Energy Optimisation (ECD, 2003). The focus was to demonstrate packages of innovative gas technologies in the domestic environment.

• Energy efficiency in the European Union (Enerdata, 2003). The focus is how specific energy consumption decrease with time. This project started in 1993 and is still running.

4.2 Urban and rural conditions for space heating Urban, suburban, semi-rural and rural areas have different conditions for space heating for the residential and service sectors. Common heating solutions are only possible in urban areas, since line-based network energy supply as natural gas and district heating requires a certain heat demand density in order to justify investment in distribution pipes. This heat demand density threshold is lower for natural gas than for district heating. It is impossible to give any general threshold figure when district heat is more competitive than natural gas or other fuels. This threshold depends heavily on national and local conditions. In rural areas, only individual heating solutions are possible.

According to Figure 13, the dominating part of the population (74%) lives in urban areas. This urban fraction varies between 50 % and 97 % in the 32 countries, but the definition of an “urban” area is not harmonised, also giving some variation among countries. The urban population fraction is somewhat higher in the EU15 and EFTA3 countries compared to the NMS10 and ACC4 countries. Hence, most of the residential heat demands are located to urban areas. Most heat demands for the service sector appear also in urban areas. The conclusion is then that a clear majority of the heat demands for space heating and hot water supply are concentrated to urban areas giving the possibility of common heat supply solutions.

But district heat distribution to areas with single-family houses is more difficult to implement, due to the heat density threshold for district heating. But with a large and cheap source for district heating, this threshold can be reached. Currently, district heat deliveries to low heat density areas appear only when the local competitiveness for district heating is high, as in Iceland (85 % of all single-family houses are connected to district heating), Denmark (47 %), Finland (12%), and Sweden (11 %). Hence, only residential heat demands in multi-family houses can be met by district heating if alternative heat supply is cheap.

Figure 14 is showing that the fraction of dwellings in multi-family houses has a large variation in the 32 countries. The lowest fractions appear in Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom, Hungary, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, and Norway. The opposite situation


appears in Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Turkey, and Switzerland, where more than 60 % of all dwellings are located in multi-family houses.

Hereby, the following possible heating solutions appear:

• District heating networks are more common in high density urban areas with multi-family, public, and commercial buildings. District heat is also competitive in suburban areas if the district heat source is cheap and the alternative heat supply is expensive.

• Natural gas, for local heat generation in boilers or stoves, is mainly distributed in urban and suburban areas. If the national population density is high enough, natural gas is also distributed to small towns and villages in semi-rural areas.

• Individual solutions as boilers for fuel oil, LPG, coal, and firewood are normally used in rural areas. Other individual solutions are electricity use in boilers, panel radiators, hot water storage tanks, or heat pumps. These solutions can also be used in urban areas, but the use of firewood is normally only allocated to rural areas due to the close supply.

With respect to competition among the various possibilities for heating, the following patterns appear:

• District heat competes with natural gas and other fossil-based energy supply in high heat density urban areas.

• Natural gas competes with various individual solutions in suburban and semi-rural areas. District heat can also compete if its heat source is very cheap.

• Various individual heating solutions compete with each other in rural areas. Firewood is a common rural primary energy supply in all countries.

Fraction of urban population

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Figure 13. Fraction of urban population during 2003 for the 32 countries in the target area. Source: (UN, 2004)


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Dwellings in multi-family houses Dwellings in urban single-family houses

Dwellings in rural single-family houses

Figure 14. Residential living situation with respect to fraction of dwellings in multi- and single-family houses, based on the latest year with information available. The divisions between rural and urban single-family houses are estimated by the fractions of urban population from Figure 13. Hence, all multi-family houses are assumed to be located in urban areas.

4.3 Climatic conditions for space heating The colder the local climate is and the higher the indoor temperatures are, the higher is the heat demand for space heating. Most heat users understand this simple rule. The space heat supply should compensate for heat transmission losses through walls and roofs and for heating supply air in mechanical or natural ventilation systems. The outdoor temperature is the most important variable in order to explain both the daily magnitude and variations from one year to another in the overall heat demand.

A building heat balance is also affected by solar gain and wind chill. The solar gain is mainly obtained from solar irradiation through windows, while the wind chill depends on increased natural ventilation due to the higher wind pressures surrounding buildings during windy days. Both these heat flows are normally small compared to the overall heat demands, when considering large aggregated volumes of buildings. But the two additional heat flows can reach a significant magnitude for either a south facing or a wind-facing building. However, the solar gain is significant during late spring and early autumn, by shortening the heating season for almost all locations in Europe.

The target area of the 32 countries contains locations where the annual average outdoor temperature varies from –2 to 19ºC, giving very different local conditions for space heating. The variation of the average annual outdoor temperature in Europe is presented in Figure 15. The contour map is based on the average annual outdoor temperature in 80 urban locations, reflecting that most heat demands are located in urban agglomerations. The map does not consider lower outdoor temperatures in mountain areas, since very few heat demands are located on these mountains.

However, the European contour map for the annual outdoor temperature cannot be used to estimate the annual heat demand, since only outdoor temperatures below the targeted indoor temperature should be considered. The duration of the outdoor temperatures for five urban locations are presented in Figure 16 together with a typical indoor temperature of 20ºC. The local heating demand is proportional to the area between the duration curve for the outdoor temperature below the indoor temperature and the horizontal line representing the indoor


temperature. In the same manner, the cooling demand is proportional to the area between the duration curve for the outdoor temperature above the indoor temperature and the horizontal indoor temperature line. But when heating indexes are constructed, the internal gains from human metabolism and indoor electricity reduce the indoor temperature to an effective indoor temperature, being some degrees lower.

Figure 16 reveals that the heating demand is larger than the cooling demand, unless the internal gains are very large, for all European locations. Although Palermo in Southern Italy has an annual outdoor temperature very near the expected indoor temperature, the heating demand appear by definition for about 5-6 months per year. For Kiruna in Northern Sweden, the heating demand is present almost all days during the year and the cooling demand never appear.

Heating systems are designed to maintain the indoor temperature with some accepted reduction during a period of some days with outdoor temperatures below and equal to the design outdoor temperature, appearing with a low frequency standardised in national regulations. Figure 16 also reveals that the design outdoor temperature varies from just above 0ºC in Palermo in Southern Italy to below -30ºC in Kiruna in Northern Sweden. The typical European design outdoor temperature for space heating is just below -10ºC as illustrated by Strasbourg, France.


35

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-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Figure 15. Annual average outdoor temperature in ºC between 1981 and 2000 for Europe with respect to 80 urban locations (contour map). Note that the map is not representative for all locations in each country, since the existing data grid consists of only 80 locations.

-40

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000Hours per year

Temperature, °C

Palermo, ItalyFirenze, ItalyStrasbourg, FranceHelsinki, FinlandKiruna, SwedenIndoor 20°C

Figure 16. Duration of outdoor temperature during 20 years (1981-2000) for five urban European locations and a typical indoor temperature of 20ºC.


4.4 Building stock for space heating

4.4.1 Residential buildings

The total useful floor spaces in residential buildings in various countries are available from the annual publications of “Bulletin of Housing Statistics for Europe and North America” (UNECE, 2005) and “Housing Statistics in the European Union” (Boverket, 2005). This gives a possibility to easily gather the current use of residential buildings in the target area.

Each national average residential useful floor space per capita is presented in Figure 17 versus each national GDP per capita. The diagram reveals that the use of residential floor space increase with the national GDP, but is not directly proportional to GDP. The relationship is more like that the residential areas is proportional to the square root of the GDP. Residential living is a basic social demand that must be met. The population in richer countries do not spend all their money for getting more residential space. They prefer also other ways of spending money.

The average use of residential space was 36,5 m2 per capita in the whole target area, while the total number of dwellings was 240,3 million, having a total floor area of 20,9 million m2. The corresponding information is presented in Table 3 for the four country groups, while national information can be found in Table 8 in the ending background appendix.

Table 3. Residential information per country group during 2003.

Country group Number of dwellings, millions

Total residential floor area, billion m2

Residential floor area per capita, m2

EU15 178,4 16,0 41,9

NMS10 26,2 1,9 25,5

ACC4 29,9 2,4 23,3

EFTA3 5,7 0,6 45,2

Total 240,3 20,9 36,5

The degree of central heating installed in residential buildings is presented in Figure 18. The presence of central heating is higher in the Northern part in Europe compared to the Mediterranean area, where it is also common to have no heating system at all. The ACC4 countries have a very low fraction of central heating.

By tradition, the purport of the label “central heating” has been a water-based heat distribution system inside a building. However, this definition is not harmonised anymore, since electric panel radiators are included in the central heating fraction for at least Norway and Sweden. In some NMS10 and ACC4 countries, the fraction of central heating is equal to the fraction of dwellings connected to district heating systems, revealing another national definition of “central heating”.

The presence of central heating system inside a building is prerequisite for a connection to a district heating system. Otherwise, the heat cannot be redistributed in a building.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

GDP 2003 per capita, EUR

Residential useful floor space per

capita, m2

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

IcelandDenmark

Ireland

Cyprus

Slovenia

Figure 17. Residential useful floor space per capita versus each national GDP per capita for 2003. Average lines added for the EU15 and NMS10 country groups.

Fraction of central heating in residential buildings

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Aus

tria,

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Bel

gium

, EU

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and,

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y, E

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, EU

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in, E

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, EU

15

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, EU

15

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ch R

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onia

, NM

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gary

, NM

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ia, N

MS

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a, N

MS

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ta, N

MS

10

Pol

and,

NM

S10

Slo

vak

Rep

ublic

, NM

S10

Slo

veni

a, N

MS

10

Bul

garia

, AC

C4

Cro

atia

, AC

C4

Rom

ania

, AC

C4

Turk

ey, A

CC

4

Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

way

, EFT

A3

Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

A3

Figure 18. Share of central heating in residential buildings. Main sources: (Boverket, 2005) and (UNECE, 2005).


4.4.2 Public and commercial buildings (the service sector)

Many countries do not gather information on the size and structure of the service sector buildings. This low availability is a strong contrast to the high availability of residential information, which has a strong social and political dimension. Also the (Eurostat, 2002) report about the service sector energy consumption lacks vital information about the useful floor area in the service sector.

Statistical national values of the floor areas in the service sector have been gathered for 20 of the 32 countries. Actual information gathered can be found in Table 8 in the ending background information appendix. The 12 countries with missing information are Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania, representing 18 % of the population in the target area. When specific use is later estimated in the report, the weighted average floor area for each country group has been used to estimate the missing national areas. These averages were 14,6 m2 for EU15, 10,0 m2 for NMS10, and 4,0 m2 for ACC4.

Each identified national average service sector useful floor space per capita is presented in Figure 19 versus each national GDP per capita. The variation within the country groups is now more pronounced compared to the corresponding residential information in Figure 17. Especially Netherlands, Italy, and Spain have much less service sector areas than other EU15 countries. It is more difficult to find an obvious relationship between service sector area and GDP. It appears that countries with fully developed service sectors including a strong public sector have a service sector area per capita of about 20 m2, as for Germany, Switzerland, and the five Nordic countries.

Including estimates for missing countries, the total service sector area is 7,0 billion m2, giving an overall average of 12,2 m2 per capita.

A European average composition of service sector buildings is: 12 % for hotels and restaurants, 13 % for health and social buildings, 18 % for education and research, 26 % for offices and public administration, 22 % for commercial purposes, and finally 10 % for other purposes. This average composition was based on information available from 16 countries gathered for this project.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

GDP 2003 per capita, EUR

Service sector useful floor space

per capita, m2

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Slovak rep

Portugal

Greece

Spain Italy

Netherlands

FranceUnited Kingdom

LuxembourgIrelandAustriaBelgiumTurkey

Lithuania

Croatia

Czech rep

Sweden

Finland

Germany Iceland

Switzerland

Norway

Slovenia

Denmark

Figure 19. Useful floor space in the service sector per capita versus each national GDP per capita for 2003.


4.5 Heating index for space heating The idea of creating an annual accumulated sum describing the local temperature conditions for a location was put forward in the 19th century, but it was first used for agricultural purposes. Several heating engineers in different countries suggested the use for space heating in the early 20th century. The method was commercially introduced in the USA during the 1920’s and called the “degree-day”-method. It was used for checking heating plant operation and predicting fuel consumption. The American concept was brought to Europe in 1927 by Erich Schulz, a district heating engineer at Bewag in Berlin. Both the American and European use expanded in the 1930’s and degree-day handbooks were published.

The degree-day method just sum up all daily temperature differences between an effective indoor temperature and the daily average outdoor temperature for a location, if the outdoor temperature is lower than a specified limit temperature (threshold value). The effective indoor temperature is some degrees lower than the actual indoor temperature in order to compensate for internal temperature gains from human metabolism and indoor electricity use. The limit temperature is some degrees lower than the effective indoor temperature in order to compensate for solar gain during late spring and early autumn. The lower the limit temperature is, the shorter the heating season will be. Figure 20 shows a map of Europe with the degree-day number estimated with an effective indoor temperature of 17ºC and a limit temperature of 13ºC.

The degree-day method is used (and misused) in most European countries. This method is not harmonised in Europe, since each country has its own standard computation. However, a complete harmonisation is difficult to perform, since the magnitudes of the effective indoor and limit temperatures depend on how well the buildings are insulated, which vary significantly throughout Europe.

The purport with the degree-day number is simply to estimate “the amount of cold to counteract with space heating” on a certain location. As a method, it is very simple and rough, and most suitable for large aggregated building volumes and for annual adjustments of heat demands. It cannot directly be used to explain how the space heating demands vary from south to north in Europe, since the actual demands also depend on how well the buildings are insulated. In both (Enerdata, 2003) and (IEA, 2004), space heating demands per degree-day are presented for various countries. That kind of analysis presume, that the same building with the same insulation exist in both Palermo in Southern Italy and Kiruna in Northern Sweden. According to Figure 20, the degree-day number is more than ten times higher in Kiruna than in Palermo. But the heat demand in Kiruna is not ten times higher, since the buildings are better insulated.

It would be much better if a heating index could include an average rational use of heat resistance in buildings. The long-term optimal insulation thickness is proportional to the square root of the degree-day number, by assuming a certain heat cost and certain insulation cost. This analytical fact can be found in any textbook about building physics. Also recovery of heat from ventilation systems would follow the same relationship. Hence, the optimal heat use should be proportional to the square root of the degree-day number, since the overall building heat resistance should be proportional to the square root of the degree-day number. It is therefore possible to create an index that explains the expected space heating demand at a uniform heat and construction cost and a uniform indoor temperature, when the degree-day number is different.

A new European heating index (EHI) has been constructed in this project according to the simple analysis performed above and is presented in Figure 21. The index is normalised, where 100 is equal to an average European condition. Using a reference degree-day number of 2600, corresponding to an annual average outdoor temperature just above 10ºC, fulfils this normalisation. The solar and internal gains are also adjusted by the square root of the degree-day number, since these gains are more valuable in temperature addition, when a building is well insulated. Change of effective indoor temperature affects also the limit temperature by using a constant solar gain.

The used simplifications for the new heating index are the constant energy supply in the solar gain used and no adjustments for different human metabolism and electricity indoor use in various


countries. Elimination of these simplifications can of course refine the index, but it would be a pedagogic value to keep it simple.

The same methodology has been used for creating a new cooling index for Europe (ECI) and this index is presented in the corresponding cooling market report from the ECOHEATCOOL project.

Figure 21 shows that the heat demands for space heating should not vary very much. The heat demand in Stockholm should only be 20 % higher than the heat demand in Brussels. Florence should have a 20 % lower heat demand than Budapest. Hamburg and Bucharest should have the same heat demand. Kiruna should have a 151/54 = 2,8 times higher heat demand than Palermo. Strasbourg in France is the typical space heating city in Europe, having a heating index of 100.

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Figure 20. Degree-days estimated for various urban locations in Europe. The number of degree-days has been estimated according to a 17/13-system explained in the text. Note that the map is not representative for all locations in each country, since the existing data grid consists of only 80 locations.


-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Figure 21. The new European heating index (EHI) in a contour map computed from information for 80 urban locations in Europe. The space heating demand should be proportional to this index. Note that the map is not representative for all locations in each country, since the existing data grid consists of only 80 locations.

4.6 Indoor temperatures The daily heat demand for space heating is proportional to the difference between the indoor and outdoor temperatures. Hence, the national level of the average indoor temperature is also an important factor affecting the national average heat demand. However, an informative survey paper about typical indoor temperatures in various European countries has not been found.

For a typical European space heating demand corresponding to a degree-day number of 2600, an increase of the indoor temperature by 1ºC will increase the heat demand for space heating by 8%. This relative change will be lower for colder climates and higher for warmer climates.

Available long-term measurements of indoor residential temperatures give the level of 18ºC in United Kingdom, 20ºC in Ireland, 21-22ºC in Sweden. In South-East Europe, substantially reduced indoor temperatures have been a reality during the recent years for the poorest part of the population with respect to affordability. The optimum indoor temperature for health is between 18 and 24ºC (WHO, 2004). Lower indoor temperatures during cold winters give excess winter deaths as reported from United Kingdom, (Wilkinsson et al, 2001).


4.7 Hot water consumption Preparation of hot water for domestic and other purposes is the second largest heat demand in the other sector after space heating. This heat demand is more pronounced in the residential sector compared to the service sector. A recent informative paper or report of the magnitude of average hot water consumption in European countries is however not available. Most hot water information is related to the design conditions for instantaneous and storage water heaters.

The latest available survey information to be used is the (Eurostat, 1999) report about the energy consumption in households in the EU15 and some CEE countries. The fuel/heat use considers the years 1995 and 1996, and has been transferred to average daily hot water consumption per capita in Figure 22, by assuming a temperature difference of 50 ºC between the hot and cold water sides. The average hot water consumption is estimated to be 50 litres/day per capita for the 24 participating countries, but large deviations appear from this average.

This estimate should be compared to the value of 36 litres/day mentioned as a European average in (EVA, 1998), but the origin for this value was not mentioned. The higher value from Figure 22 should also include conversion losses when fuels are used and compensation for heat losses from the hot water circulation pipes in large residential buildings. So the two average values identified can correspond well.

Hot water consumption 1995/96 (and 1988 for Italy)

0

20

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80

100

120

Aus

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and,

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ublic

, NM

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MS

10

Bul

garia

, AC

C4

Cro

atia

, AC

C4

Rom

ania

, AC

C4

Turk

ey, A

CC

4

Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

way

, EFT

A3

Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

A3

litres/day per capita

Figure 22. Example of estimated hot water consumption in some European countries. Source: Own analysis of heat use information from (Eurostat, 1999). The hot water consumption has been estimated by assuming a temperature increase of 50ºC.


4.8 Other sector heat demands The other sector consists of the residential, service, and agriculture sectors. In order to obtain an overall picture of this sector, both the whole sector and the two major sub-sectors for residential and service buildings are analysed. Detailed information about the energy demands in the agriculture sector is neglected.

4.8.1 Heat demands per capita and origin

The overall consumption level per capita in the other sector is presented in Figure 23. Each total value has been built up in added bars, showing the origin of the net heat and electricity used. For fuels, every part of the added bar is the estimated heat demand after energy conversion in boilers. The conversion efficiencies from Table 2 have been used for this estimation.

The highest consumption levels appear in Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, and Austria. In general, the consumption level is higher in the EU15 countries compared to the NMS10 countries. The lowest consumption levels are found in the Mediterranean countries. These conclusions reveal that space heat demands dominate the other sector heat demands. The total end use was 18,9 EJ for the other sector during 2003, with 5,9 EJ of electricity and 13,0 EJ of net heat used, thereof 1,4 EJ delivered as district heat.

In total, the other sector demands are higher than the industrial demands, being 30 % lower than the other sector demands in the target area, but large variations appears. Exceptional large industrial demands appear in Finland and Luxembourg according to Figure 24.

Within the other sector, the residential demands are higher than the service sector demands, being 55 % lower than the residential demands. Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Iceland are examples of countries having unusual distribution between the two sub-sectors, as identified in Figure 25. This can be a sign of misallocation of energy supply within the other sector in the IEA energy balances.

Other sector end use of net heat and electricity,

GJ/capita

0

10

20

30

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50

60

70

80

Aus

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and,

EFT

A3

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, EFT

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Sw

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, EFT

A3


Figure 23. Per capita end use of net heat and electricity in the other sector during 2003. Added bar for Iceland broken due to a high value (154 GJ/capita).


0102030405060708090

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Other sector end use of net heat and electricity, GJ/capita

Industrial end use of net heat and


ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

134%

76%

34%

Finland

100%

Belgium

SwedenNorway

Figure 24. Correlation between the total per capita end use in the industrial and other sectors during 2003. Iceland excluded due to high values.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Residential end use of net heat and electricity, GJ/capita

Service sector end use of net heat and


ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

85%

48%

19%

Netherlands

MaltaGreece

Slovak Republic

Cyprus

Czech republic

Figure 25. Correlation between the total per capita end use in the service and residential sectors during 2003. Iceland excluded due to high values.


4.8.2 Market shares

The corresponding market shares for various energy supplies to the other sector are presented in Figure 26. The overall market shares for the whole target area was: 33 % natural gas, 31 % electricity, 20 % fuel oil, 7,5 % heat, 5,7 % combustible renewables, 1,8 % coal and coal products, 0,4 % geothermal heat, and 0,2 % solar heat. Hence, natural gas has a leading position on the European other sector heat market, supplying 4,2 times more heat than the supply of district heat.

Natural gas dominated the energy supply in Netherlands, United Kingdom, Hungary, Italy, and the Slovak republic. The fraction of petroleum products as fuel oil and LPG was still high in Greece, Switzerland, Ireland, Slovenia, Belgium, and Luxembourg. District heat had considerable market shares in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. Combustible renewables, mainly used as firewood in rural areas, had high contribution in Latvia, Estonia, Turkey, Romania, Lithuania, Portugal, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Austria. The use of coal and coal products was still significant in Poland, Czech republic, Bulgaria, Ireland (peat), and Turkey. Geothermal heat dominated in Iceland, but should have been labelled as district heat. Other countries using geothermal heat directly were Turkey, Italy, Hungary, and Switzerland. The use of solar heat for hot water preparation was really significant in Cyprus, but significant use appeared also in Austria, Greece, and Turkey.

High fractions of electricity used were based on two different situations. In Norway, Sweden, Finland, and France, considerable amounts of electricity was used for heating. In Mediterranean countries as Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, electricity was used for both cooling demands and small heating demands. Bulgaria had also a high fraction of electricity demand in the other sector.

The other sector is the most typical heat market for supply of district heat. The market share of heat on this market excluding electricity for non-heating purposes would be a good measure of the market penetration of district heat. But it is impossible to identify electricity for non-heating purposes in international energy statistics. A second best solution could be to exclude all electricity use when the market shares are estimated. This estimation is presented in Figure 27, showing only the various market shares for heat (mostly district heat).

The market shares of net heat and electricity use in the residential and service sectors are presented in Figure 28 and Figure 29, respectively. Major differences between these two sub-sectors were:

• The use of combustible renewables (firewood) was more pronounced in the residential sector.

• The fraction of electricity use was higher in the service sector, 49 % of all use compared to 25 % in the residential sector. This dominance reduces the market shares for fuels used and district heat in the service sector.

Zero market shares for district heat in the French residential sector in Figure 28 and in the German service sector in Figure 29 depends on unallocated energy volumes in the IEA energy balances. All other sector use of district heat in Germany was allocated to the residential sector, giving a higher market share for district heat in that sector.


Other sector end use of net heat and electricity,

market shares

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ey, A

CC

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Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

way

, EFT

A3

Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

A3


Figure 26. Market shares for end use of net heat and electricity in the others sector during 2003.

Total fraction of geothermal and district heat inthe net heat demand in the other sector during 2003

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

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atia

, AC

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Turk

ey, A

CC

4

Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

way

, EFT

A3

Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

A3

Figure 27. Overall market share for geothermal heat and district heat in the net heat demand for the other sector during 2003. The diagram neglects that some electricity is also used for heating.


Residential end use of net heat and electricity,

market shares

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Aus

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Bel

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, EU

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ey, A

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and,

EFT

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, EFT

A3

Sw

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, EFT

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Figure 28. Market shares for residential end use of net heat and electricity during 2003.

Service sector end use of net heat and electricity,

market shares

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Aus

tria,

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15

Bel

gium

, EU

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rus,

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gary

, NM

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ia, N

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Lith

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ta, N

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and,

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S10

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garia

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, AC

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ey, A

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Icel

and,

EFT

A3

Nor

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, EFT

A3

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land

, EFT

A3


Figure 29. Market shares for service sector end use of net heat and electricity during 2003.


4.8.3 Correlation with national climate

The correlation between the net heat and electricity use in the other sector and the national climate can be observed in Figure 30. The corresponding diagrams for the residential and service sectors are presented in Figure 31 and Figure 32. The annual average outdoor temperature for the capital has been chosen as the measure for the national climate. The average lines for the EU15 countries have been added to each diagram. These average lines show that the per capita use increase with lower annual average outdoor temperatures. All EU15 countries align well to the average line, except Luxembourg, having a high residential sector demand and a low service sector demand. Again, this is a sign of misallocation of fuel and electricity use in the IEA energy balances.

The total per capita use in NMS10 and ACC4 is always lower than the EU15 average lines. The main explanation for this fact is that more floor areas are used in the EU15 in both the residential and service sectors, see also Figure 17 and Figure 19.

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40

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80


Other sector end use

of net heat and electricity, GJ/capita

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

Belgium

Figure 30. Total per capita use of net heat and electricity in the other sector during 2003 versus the national climate for each country. Iceland excluded from the diagram due to a high value (154 GJ/capita).


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50

60


Residential end use of net heat and


ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

BulgariaLithuania

Poland

Finland

Belgium

United KingdomDenmark

Latvia

Spain

Portugal

Italy Greece

France

Figure 31. Total per capita use of net heat and electricity in the residential sector during 2003 versus the national climate for each country. Iceland excluded from the diagram due to a high value (95 GJ/capita).

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25




ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

NetherlandsSwitzerland

Sweden

LuxembourgEstonia

Poland

Finland

BelgiumIreland

Denmark

Turkey

Figure 32. Total per capita use of net heat and electricity in the service sector during 2003 versus the national climate for each country.


4.9 Specific demands In order to compensate for varying national use of floor areas, the specific use of net heat and electricity per square meter has been estimated for the residential and service sectors. The total values with division between electricity and net heat are presented in Figure 33 for the residential sector and Figure 34 for the service sector. The corresponding correlations with the national climates are found in Figure 35 and Figure 36. These total values include all end use for space heating, hot water preparation, ventilation, cooling, cooking, lighting etc.

The residential demands for the EU15 and NMS10 countries align now better. The overall weighted average demand was 589 MJ/m2, while it was 599 MJ/ m2 for the EU15 countries and 713 MJ/ m2 for the NMS10 countries. The higher average for the NMS10 countries can depend on location in colder climates and/or somewhat lower heat resistances in buildings. Other unknown factors in this comparison are the indoor temperatures used and national averages of hot water consumption.

In general, Mediterranean countries have lower residential specific demands than other countries. This reflects that heating demands dominate in Europe and that cooling demands are lower than heating demands. A major conclusion is that residential demands in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe are not much lower than the demands in the Nordic and Baltic countries. It is amazing to see that the residential end use demand is higher in Austria and Belgium than in Sweden, despite the fact that the average annual outdoor temperature is about 4ºC lower in Sweden. In a similar way, the demands in France and United Kingdom are higher than the demands in Denmark. Hence, if it is possible to run district heating systems for residential demands in Denmark and Sweden, it should also be possible to run such systems in other countries with respect to actual specific heat demands.

The two diagrams for the residential sector also contradict the widespread myth that the residential heat demands are much higher in the new member states than in the old member states.

The service sector demands are in general higher than the residential demands, but more scattered. The overall average specific demand was 793 MJ/m2, while it was 795 MJ/ m2 for the EU15 countries and 826 MJ/ m2 for the NMS10 countries. Variation of national averages is very large, giving deviations from the EU15 average line with +/- 40 %. Scattered information depends mainly from large uncertainties concerning the gathered service sector floor areas as described earlier. Another source for errors are the fact that the service sector supply is the final unknown part in most national energy balances.


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way

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itzer

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electricity, MJ/m2

Electricity

Net heat from fuel supply and district heating

Figure 33. Total end use of net heat and electricity per m2 in the residential sector during 2003.

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and,

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A3

Nor

way

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Sw

itzer

land

, EFT

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electricity, MJ/m2

Electricity

Net heat from fuel supply and district heating

Figure 34. Total end use of net heat and electricity per m2 in the service sector during 2003.


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400

600

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1200



electricity, MJ/m2

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Luxembourg

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Poland

Finland

Belgium

United Kingdom

Denmark

Latvia

Austria

SpainPortugal

ItalyGreece

France

Estonia

Turkey

Sweden

Norway

Figure 35. Total end use of net heat and electricity per m2 in the residential sector during 2003 versus the national climate for each country. Iceland excluded from the diagram due to a high value (1750 MJ/ m2)

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000


Service sector end use of net heat and electricity, MJ/m2

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

Netherlands

Portugal Greece

Italy

Lithuania Czech republic

Spain

Turkey

Slovak republic

SwedenFinland

Poland

Latvia

Figure 36. Total end use of net heat and electricity per m2 in the service sector during 2003 versus the national climate for each country.


4.10 Correlation between residential demands and the new EHI The correlation between the actual 2003 specific residential demands and the new European heating index (EHI, introduced in this report) can be analysed in Figure 37. National averages are scattered around the EU15 average line, equal to direct proportionality to the effective demand average of 599 MJ/m2 and the effective EHI average of 94,8 for EU15.

The EHI presumes uniform indoor temperature, uniform heat cost, uniform heat resistance cost, and no hot water consumption. Furthermore, an economic rationality is expected with respect to the use of heat resistance and a normal affordability for heat use is presumed. Actual deviation from a national average of EHI in Figure 37 can be explained by these factors. Countries with high indoor temperatures, high heat resistance cost, low heat cost, high hot water consumption, lower heat resistances and high affordability will appear above the average line, and vice versa. Countries with many buildings lacking heating systems will also appear below the average line.

Countries located near to the EU15 average line are Greece, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovak republic, Switzerland, Czech republic, and Sweden. They have all an average residential net heat and electricity use with respect to their climatic location. Located above the average line, United Kingdom, Slovenia, Belgium, Austria, Latvia, and Finland are countries with high demands. Located below the average line, Denmark is often referred to as a country with progressive heat resistance legislation. Malta, Portugal, Spain, Bulgaria, and Turkey are known to have large fractions of no heating systems in residential buildings. Low position for Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia can also depend on low indoor temperatures during the heating season.

For Northern, Central, Western, and Eastern Europe, the heat demands seems to be about the same despite climatic location. Only Mediterranean and Accession countries have significant lower heat demands.

Possible sources for errors in this analysis are firstly improper allocation between the residential and service sectors in the IEA energy balances, secondly that the capital is not a proper demand average in each country (as for Spain and Turkey), thirdly that the definitions of residential floor areas are not harmonised within the target area, and fourthly that the conversion efficiencies was estimated in Table 2 when fuels are used.

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50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140European heating index for the capital in each country


electricity, MJ/m2

ACC4EFTA3EU15NMS10EU15 average line

Luxembourg

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Poland

Finland

Belgium

United Kingdom

Denmark

Latvia

Austria

SpainPortugal

ItalyGreece

France

Estonia

Turkey

SwedenNorway

Malta

Czech republic

Croatia

Hungary Germany

Romania

Cyprus

Slovenia

Figure 37. Correlation between the residential net heat and electricity use per m2 during 2003 and the new European heating index. Iceland has been excluded due to a high value (1750 MJ/m2).


4.11 References

Boverket (The Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning), Housing Statistics in the European Union 2004. Karlskrona 2005. Available at http://www.boverket.se

BRE, Labelling and other measures for heating systems in buildings. Building Research Establishment, Watford 2002. DG TREN Save contract 4.1031/Z/99-283.

ECD, Domestic Energy Optimisation. ECD Energy and Environment Ltd, London 2003. DG TREN contract NNE5-1999-691.

ECI, Lower carbon futures for European households. Environmental Change Institute, Oxford 2000. DG TREN Save contract 4.1031/Z/97-181.

Enerdata, Energy Efficiency in the European Union 1990-2001. Save-ODYSSEE project on Energy Efficiency Indicators. June 2003.

Eurostat, Energy consumption in households. EU and Norway – 1995 survey. CEE countries – 1996 survey. Luxembourg 1999.

Eurostat, Energy consumption in the services sector – survey of EU member states. Data 1995-1999. Luxembourg 2002.

EVA, Analysis of energy efficiency of domestic electric storage water heaters. Energieverwertungsagentur (Austrian Energy Agency), Vienna 1998. DG TREN Save contract 4.1031/E/95-013.

IEA, 30 years of energy use in IEA countries. International Energy Agency, Paris 2004.

UN, Urban and rural areas 2003, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2004, available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2003/2003urban_rural.htm

UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe), Bulletin of Housing Statistics for Europe and North America 2004. Geneva 2005. Available at http://www.unece.org/

WHO, Heat waves: risks and responses. Health and Global Environmental Change Series no 2. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen 2004.

Wilkinson P et al, Cold comfort: The social and environmental determinants of excess winter deaths 1986-1996. The Policy Press 2001.


http://www.boverket.se/

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2003/2003urban_rural.htm

http://www.unece.org/

5 Summary of European end use of net heat and electricity

This survey of the industrial, residential, and service sector heat demands in the target area of 32 European countries during 2003 shows that:

• In the industrial sector, high temperature heat demands dominate by 43 % share, while medium temperature demands accounted for 27 %, and low temperature demands for 30 %.

• The market share for district heat in the industrial sector was 3,4 %, corresponding to 11 % of all industrial low temperature heat demands. Hence, more district heat can be used to satisfy urban industrial low temperature heat demands.

• 74% of the population lived in urban areas and most of the service sector buildings are also located to urban areas, giving the possibility to reach a large fraction of the total space heat demands with urban district heating systems. This fraction was higher in EU15 and EFTA3 countries compared to NMS10 and ACC4 countries.

• Out of 240 million dwellings, 48% was located in multi-family buildings, 28% in urban single-family buildings, and 24% in rural single-family buildings.

• The floor area was 20,9 billion m2 for residential buildings and 7,0 billion m2 in the service sector, giving a total floor area of 27,9 billion m2. This is almost equal to the land area of Belgium. However, the estimate of the service sector floor areas is less reliable, since missing and bad quality information exists for many countries.

• The new European heating index showed that the expected variation of space heating demands is not so large. Heat demands in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe should not be so much lower than heat demands in the Nordic and Baltic countries.

• A good survey of indoor temperatures used in Europe is missing.

• A good recent survey of hot water consumption in Europe is missing.

• Other sector demands are mainly met by deliveries of natural gas and electricity. District heat has only a minor market share of 7,9 % including deliveries of geothermal heat.

• In general, other sector demands are larger than the industrial demands.

• In general, residential demands are larger than the service sector demands.

• The electricity share is high in the service sector demands (49 %), giving a higher estimated specific demand for electricity of 385 MJ/m2, compared to 146 MJ/ m2 in the residential sector.

• The estimated net heat demands were almost equal in the residential and service sectors, 442 and 407 MJ/ m2, respectively. These estimates exclude use of electricity for heating and hot water preparation.

• Total service sector specific demand of 793 MJ/m2 including electricity use was higher than the corresponding residential demand of 589 MJ/m2.

• Trends for the European heat market have not been analysed, since the time dimension was reduced in section 2.2 to only consider 2003. However, one possible future trend appears in the results: The residential demands per capita were lower in NMS10 countries than in EU15 countries. The main explanation was the lower use of residential floor areas in NMS10. According to section 4.4.1, the demand of residential floor areas depends on the national GDP. Higher future GDP in the NMS10 countries, would then give higher residential heat demands.


Estimated volumes of net heat and electricity use for various country groups and sectors are presented in Table 4. Most of the total end use appeared in the EU15 countries (77 %). The total estimated volumes of net heat and electricity will used in the Work Package 4 of this project in order to estimate a possible expansion of district heat in Europe.

The total heat released by human metabolism from 572 million people during one year can be estimated to be 1,8 EJ. This volume is significant compared to the total net heat demand of 21,7 EJ. By assuming an overall indoor factor of 80 %, this human heat gain was about 50 MJ/m2 for all residential and service sector floor areas.

Table 4. Survey of the end use of net heat and electricity, including the population by country group

Net heat demand, PJ during 2003 EU15 NMS10 ACC4 EFTA3 TotalIndustry 6530 1047 966 187 8729Other sector 9988 1668 998 348 13001thereof Residential 7100 1126 795 208 9229thereof Service 2261 376 92 108 2838thereof Agriculture 626 165 111 32 935Total 16517 2714 1964 535 21730

Electricity demand, PJ during 2003 EU15 NMS10 ACC4 EFTA3 TotalIndustry 3515 344 319 262 4440Other sector 4790 492 338 318 5938thereof Residential 2483 225 174 173 3055thereof Service 2165 237 149 133 2684thereof Agriculture 142 29 15 12 199Total 8305 836 657 580 10378

Population, million 381 74 105 12 572

The main focus in this assessment has been specific demands in each country. This focus amplifies conclusions concerning circumstances in small countries and diminishes them for large countries. In order to get the proper conclusions for the whole target area of 32 countries, absolute values of the net heat and electricity use must be analysed.

In Figure 38, the total net heat and electricity use is presented for the whole target area by the three major sectors. The use of natural gas for heat and the use of electricity dominate in all three sectors, having total market shares of 32,9 % each. This gives a total market share of 65,8 %. Commercial heat deliveries, as district heat, has only a total market share of 6,0%.

The corresponding situation in each country is presented in Figure 39. The five largest national markets are Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. These markets constitute 58 % of the whole market in the target area. Natural gas and electricity have in these five countries a common market share of 73,5 %, while district heat has a market share of only 2,5 %, mainly appearing in Germany. So diversity is less pronounced in these five major heat markets.

In the remaining 27 countries, natural gas and electricity have a lower common market share of 55 %. District heat is more successful with a 10,8 % market share. Diversity is more pronounced in the smaller countries.


Final end use of net heat and electricity for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply

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Industrial sector Residential sector Service sector

EJ heat

Solar/Wind/Other

Combustible Renewablesand Waste


Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Electricity

Geothermal

Heat

Figure 38. Final end use of net heat and electricity for the whole target area for the three major sectors with origin of supply.

Final end use of net heat and electricity in the industrial, residential, and service sectors for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply

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Figure 39. Total final end use of net heat and electricity in the three major sectors (industrial, residential, and service) in each country with origin of supply.


6 Heating costs 6.1 Energy taxation and VAT The local heat cost is normally built up by running costs for fuel, maintenance etc and fixed costs for heating equipment as boilers etc. The basic components in the fuel cost are the international or national base cost, the national excise taxes, and the applied value added tax (VAT). Neither the energy taxation nor the VAT are fully harmonised in Europe, giving very different final heat cost in various countries. In fact, the aim, level, and scope of the national energy taxation system is the most important parameter to consider when choosing heat supply in some countries.

Within the European Union, energy taxation is partly harmonised with some minimum tax levels in the current energy tax directive (Council of the European Union, 2003). It is common to tax fossil fuels and electricity. In general, lower levels of energy taxation appear in the NMS10 countries, due to exemptions approved in the enlargement negotiations. No tax has been identified for district heat. Instead, normal taxation is applied when fossil fuels are used for heat generation in district heating systems.

The VAT in the European Union follows the sixth VAT directive (77/388/EEC) with the amendments in (92/77/EEC), giving the possibility to apply reduced VAT rates for natural gas and electricity. Greece, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, and United Kingdom in EU15 use this possibility. Ireland, Luxembourg, and Portugal apply a parking rate, lower than the standard rate but higher than the reduced rate, for fuel oil. United Kingdom also applies the reduced rate for fuel oil and domestic heating. Within the NMS10 countries, Cyprus and Hungary apply reduced rate for natural gas, while Malta use it for electricity. In the enlargement negotiations, Czech republic, Estonia, and Hungary were allowed to apply a reduce rate for district heat until 2007. The same right was given to Slovakia until 2008 and Latvia, but only to the end of 2004. All other new member states should apply normal VAT to heating, according to chapter 10 in the summary of the enlargement negotiations.

Since the VAT directive gives the general possibility for a reduced VAT rate for natural gas, but not for district heating, a distortion of the competition between natural gas and district heat is evident, when reduced rate is used for natural gas. This situation has been discussed in France, since electricity and natural gas partly have reduced rates.

6.2 Fuel oil, Natural gas and Electricity prices with taxes and VAT The DG TREN of the European Commission publishes regularly national prices for fuel oil within the European Union in the Oil Bulletin. Corresponding running heat costs in May 2004 are presented in Figure 40 for heavy fuel oil and in Figure 41 for light fuel oil. May 2004 was chosen as price example for 2003, since reporting from the NMS10 started in this month. The conversion factors in Table 2 have been used to estimate the running heat costs.

The European gas and electricity prices are fully transparent since introduction of the European Council energy price transparency directive 90/377/EEC. The transparency is fulfilled by the regular biannual gas and electricity price reports from Eurostat for industrial and household customers. Corresponding running heat costs for natural gas are presented in Figure 42 for industrial consumers and Figure 43 for household consumers. Electricity prices are presented in Figure 44 for industrial consumers and in Figure 45 for household consumers. Comparison date for these four diagrams is January 1, 2004, ending the focus year of 2003. The following four standard consumer groups, defined by Eurostat, were used for these four diagrams:D4 and I4-1 for natural gas and De and If for electricity.

These six diagrams show that a large variation appears in energy prices among countries, both with and without taxes. In general, energy taxes are more common in EU15 than in NMS10 countries.


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Heavy fuel oil, May 2004

Figure 40. Estimated heat cost for using heavy fuel oil in various countries. VAT and information about the ACC4 and EFTA3 countries are missing, since this information is missing in the original information source, which is the Oil Bulletin from DG TREN of the European Commission.

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Figure 41. Estimated heat cost for using light fuel oil in various countries.


Natural Gas for Industry

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Figure 42. Estimated heat cost for industrial use of natural gas in various countries.

Natural Gas for Households

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Figure 43. Estimated heat cost for household use of natural gas in various countries.


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Figure 44. Estimated heat cost for industrial use of electricity in various countries.

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Figure 45. Estimated heat cost for household use of electricity in various countries.


6.3 District heat District heat prices are not fully transparent and no general survey of European district heat prices is currently been published, due to locally operating district heating companies. Examples of national price estimates are given every second year for some countries in the European country-by-country reports published by Euroheat, (Euroheat &Power, 2005). Also some national time series have been published regularly for many years. This has been the case in Germany, (Schmitz, 2004). Some other price series or indexes can also be found in annual national statistical yearbooks.

In order to increase the transparency, a project was started in 2001 within the adjunct professorship at Chalmers University of Technology for gathering European district heat prices. National average district heat prices for 1999-2003 from 23 countries in the target area are presented in Figure 46. Prices are higher in the EFTA and EU15 countries, within the interval of 7-17 EUR/GJ. Lower prices are found in NMS10 and ACC4 countries, 4-10 EUR/GJ. However, considerable variations appear. A country with very low district heat prices is Iceland, since the supply is almost totally based on cheap geothermal heat. High prices are found in Austria, Denmark, Italy, Norway, Germany, and Sweden.

The total revenues in the target area were 18,6 billion EUR during 2003. The corresponding volume of heat sold was 1,75 EJ, giving an average European district heat price of 10,6 EUR/GJ.

European district heat price levels, 1999-2003

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Figure 46. Estimations of national averages of district heat prices without VAT for 23 countries in the target area. Source: (Werner& Brodén, 2004) with update by additions of 2002 and 2003.


6.4 Heat cost comparison In order to understand the competition between natural gas and district heat, a heat cost comparison is presented in Figure 47. In most cases, the national combinations of natural gas and district heat prices appear below the natural gas heat cost line, revealing the fact that district heat is cheaper than natural gas. District heat was especially cheaper in countries that had applied high energy taxes for natural gas, as in Italy, Sweden, and Denmark. These countries are located in the right part of the diagram.

The competition between district heat and natural gas was more developed in Austria, France, and Germany, where district heat and total natural gas costs were almost equal.

Low and untaxed natural gas prices appeared mostly in the NMS10 countries, located in the left part of the diagram. In Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, and Czech republic, natural gas was cheaper than district heat. However, the national natural gas prices in this region was so low that they reach the level of European border prices of about 3,5 EUR/GJ during 2003. The price of natural gas was especially low in Romania. This distortion of natural gas prices makes it difficult for district heating systems to compete on these heat markets.

National comparisons of heat costs for natural gas and district heat during 2003

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United Kingdom

Hungary

Slovenia

Sweden

Denmark

ItalyAustria

GermanyFrance

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Figure 47. National combinations of district heat prices and natural gas prices. District heat prices consider 2003, while natural gas prices consider January 1, 2004. The corresponding heat cost for natural gas for each country is found as the vertical intersection with the natural gas heat cost line and each national dot. The natural gas heat cost line has been calculated with the natural gas conversion efficiency from Table 2 and an annual total fixed and maintenance cost of 2,8 EUR/GJ. All prices exclude VAT.


6.5 National heat costs compared to GDP The total financial burden from the net heat and electricity use for each country is expressed as fractions of GDP in Figure 48. The total net heat and electricity costs amounts to 120 billion EUR for the industrial sector and 270 Billion EUR for the other sector, corresponding to 1,1 % and 2,6 % of the total GDP during 2003.

The fraction is in general about 35-45 % lower in EU15 and EFTA3 countries compared to NMS10 and ACC4 countries. But the per capita use is higher, the energy prices are higher, more floor areas are used, and the specific heat demands are about the same, so the lower fractions can mainly be explained by substantially higher GDP. The cost for heat and electricity is much more easier to carry in a fully developed economy.

High heat use per GDP in the NMS10 countries are often explained (by economists) by the use of residential buildings lacking proper heat insulation. This seems not to be the case, since the residential heat demands are about the same in EU15 and NMS10 countries. The only major difference is the large difference in GDP.

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Figure 48. Other and industrial sector net heat and electricity cost including national taxes for final consumption as a fraction of each national GDP for 2003.


Table 5. Summary of total heat and electricity costs in various country groups, sectors, and various energy supply for the whole target area.

Billion €Fraction of GDP

EU15 331 3,5%NMS10 26 6,0%ACC4 19 6,1%EFTA3 15 3,0%Industrial sector 120 1,1%Other sectors 270 2,6%Petroleum products 68 0,6%Natural gas 82 0,8%District heat 20 0,2%Others 10 0,1%Electricity 212 2,0%Total 391 3,7%

6.6 References Council of European Communities, Directive 77/388/EEC of 17 May 1977 on the harmonization of the laws of the Member States relating to turnover taxes - Common system of value added tax: uniform basis of assessment.

Council of European Communities, Directive 90/377/EEC of 29 June 1990 concerning a Community procedure to improve the transparency of gas and electricity prices charged to industrial end-users.

Council of European Communities, Directive 92/77/EEC of 19 October 1992 supplementing the common system of VAT and amending Directive 77/388/EEC.

Council of the European Union, Directive 2003/96/EC of 27 October 2003 restructuring the Community framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity.

Euroheat & Power, District Heating and Cooling, country by country survey 2005. Brussels 2005.

European Commission, DG TAXUD, VAT rates applied in the member states of the European community, Situation of July 1, 2005. DOC/1636/2005.

European Commission, DG TAXUD, Excise duty tables, part II – Energy products and Electricity, Situation of July 1, 2005. Ref 1.021, July 2005.

European Commission, DG TREN, Oil Bulletin, May 2004

European Commission, DG TREN, Duties and Taxes, May 2004

Eurostat, Electricity prices for EU households on 1 January 2004. Statistics in focus, Energy and Environment 2/2004.

Eurostat, Electricity prices for EU industry on 1 January 2004. Statistics in focus, Energy and Environment 3/2004.

Eurostat, Gas prices for EU households on 1 January 2004. Statistics in focus, Energy and Environment 4/2004.

Eurostat, Gas prices for EU industry on 1 January 2004. Statistics in focus, Energy and Environment 5/2004.

Schmitz K, Fernwärme-Preisvergleich 2003. Euroheat & Power 33(2004):3, 28-31.

Werner S & Brodén A, Prices in European District Heat Systems, Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling, August 30-31, 2004, Esbo, Finland.


7 Suppliers and market actors The heat market is a blend of international, national and local market actors. The international actors dominate the oil, natural gas, electricity, and heating equipment supply, while local actors sell biomass or run urban district heating systems. The role of national actors is diminished, due to mergers or acquisitions from international actors. New roles as energy service companies (ESCOs) also emerge. The different actors work with fuel supply, electricity supply, equipment supply, installation of equipment, district heating systems etc. Their efforts aim at meeting the customer demands for high quality products and desirable indoor climates.

The heat market is by tradition not seen as an integrated market, but as many participating markets: Electricity market, Gas market, Boiler market etc. The market description below aims at a more wider market definition. This view is based on the fact that most energy commodities are supplied in order to meet a heat demand in the end, as defined by Figure 2.

7.1 Business models The following main three business models are applied in the heat market:

1. The final user owns his heat generating equipment and buys a continuous flow (as natural gas) or batches (as fuel oil) of an energy commodity in order to generate the heat. This is the most common way in Europe, since the combination of a boiler and natural gas dominate the European space heat market. The final user buys the boiler initially from an equipment supplier and a contract with the local gas net operator makes is possible to provide natural gas from a supplier.

2. The final user buys the heat directly from an urban district heating system or a local boiler or CHP plant owned by the supplier. The delivery is initiated by the connection to the district heating network or that the customer boiler is either sold to or installed by the supplier. The heat is continuously delivered according to a contract and the heat flow depends on control set points fixed by the final user.

3. A variant of version 2 is that the supplier also is responsible for the control set points and the final user pays for a heat service expressed and defined in a contract. This version is often referred as an ESCO arrangement.

These business models reflect the commitment of the final user. In the first version, the final user must take active part in choices of fuel supplier, boiler type, and boiler maintenance. The final user is more passive in the two other versions, focusing on core business or private interests, and is buying a more refined product. When comparing the total cost for the three models, it is important to consider the maintenance cost, which is additional in the first model, but included in the other two models.

The three different versions of business models give a demand of various sets of suppliers of equipment. Manufacturers of standardised boilers are essential in the first model, while heat meters, heat exchangers, and prefabricated heat distribution pipes are inevitable products in the second model.

7.2 Fuel and electricity supply Fuel oil and LPG are supplied from the oil market, the most efficient price-setting energy market with many sellers and buyers. The suppliers are mostly international companies, but due to decreasing market shares, the number of local distributors is deceasing in many countries.


The supply of biomass is increasing, giving opportunities for many local suppliers. National price series for different fuel qualities becomes more common (EUBIONET, 2003). Some international trade in biomass is also emerging (Ericsson & Nilsson, 2004).

Some large international companies dominate the fully developed European electricity and gas markets. The market rules for the electricity and gas markets follow the second sets of electricity and gas directives from 2003. Customer choice will be completely implemented in July 2007. Major suppliers on the gas market are Gaz de France, E.ON (Ruhrgas), Gasunie, Eni, Centrica, Gas Natural, Distrigaz etc. Major European electricity suppliers are EdF, E.ON, RWE, Enel, Endesa, Fortum, Vattenfall, and EnBW.

7.3 District heat supply District heating is by tradition a local business developed from local assets. Most district heating systems in EU15 and EFTA 3 started from a municipal initiative, often in conjunction with the municipal electricity distribution. Hence, the synergies from a local combined heat and power plant could be exploited. In NMS10 and ACC4 countries, most district heating systems started from a governmental planning initiative in the former planned economies. The advantage of combined heat and power was also the main objective. After the transition to market economy, the ownership of most NMS10 and ACC4 district heating systems has been transferred to municipalities.

The current trend is now that many municipalities are divesting the district heating systems by selling the assets or by inviting private capital for private public partnerships. This trend appears in most European countries. It has been mostly international power companies that have increased their presence in the ownership of district heating systems, but Fortum and Vattenfall are the only major European power companies also including heat as a core product. This international trend is exemplified by the change of ownership in Swedish district heating systems between 1990 and 2004 in Figure 49.

Owner shares for Swedish district heat deliveries 1990-2004

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Other private ownersVattenfallSydkraft, subsidiary of EONFortumMunicipal companyMunicipal administration

Figure 49. Ownership of Swedish district heating systems with respect to heat deliveries. Source: (Andersson & Werner, 2005).


Examples of major European energy companies operating district heating systems in several countries are:

Dalkia A subsidiary of both Veolia Environnement and Electricité de France, runs and partly owns globally more than 260 district heating and cooling system with a total capacity of 75 GW, corresponding to heat deliveries of 600-700 PJ. Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in France, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech republic, Romania, and Hungary.

Elyo A subsidiary of the SUEZ company. Runs and partly owns globally 90 district heating and cooling systems with a total capacity of 16 GW, corresponding to heat deliveries of more than 100 PJ. Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in France, United Kingdom, USA, and other countries.

Vattenfall Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in Sweden, Germany (Hamburg and Berlin), Poland (heat generation for Warsaw), Finland, and Estonia. Total heat generation was 128 PJ during 2003.

E.ON Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in Germany, Sweden and Denmark (through Sydkraft, the Swedish subsidiary), Finland, United Kingdom, Poland, Hungary, Netherlands etc. Total heat sales are not communicated, since E.ON do not consider heat as a core product. But Sydkraft delivered 24 PJ during 2003.

Fortum Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in Finland, Sweden (Stockholm), Russia (30,6 % of Lenenergo, having the second largest district heating system in the world), Estonia, and Poland. Total heat sales were 85 PJ during 2003.

MVV Energie Formerly the Mannheim Stadtwerke, but introduced to the stock market in 1999. Active with heat generation and/or heat sales in Germany, Czech republic, and Poland. Total heat sales were 24 PJ during 2003.

The institutional framework for district heating is very different in the European countries, (WEC, 2004) and (IEA, 2004). Some countries have special district heating laws setting the market rules for district heating systems, other countries allow the district heating systems to operate on commercial conditions on the heat market. Most NMS10 and ACC4 countries apply also price regulation for district heat sold to the residential sector. The motive is social protection in order to protect the poorest part of the population, since a general social benefit system is missing. Denmark has also introduced extensive price regulation, but with the motive that most district heating customers have been connected according to governmental planning initiatives since the 1980’s.

7.4 Equipment suppliers 7.4.1 Boilers etc.

The total market for boilers, water heaters, and radiators in the target area can be estimated to more than 10 billion EUR annually according to Table 6. About 7,3 million domestic boilers, 12,7 million water heaters, and 50 million radiators are annually manufactured and sold. However, under-floor heating is not included in this estimation.

The five major suppliers for commercial and domestic boilers and other heating equipment are in descending order: BBT Thermotechnik (Germany), Vaillant (Germany), Viessmann (Germany), Baxi (United Kingdom), and MTS (Merloni TermoSanitari, Italy). These companies are responsible for 60 % of the European market for heating equipment.


A typical trend is that the boiler suppliers also include heat pumps and solar collectors in their product portfolios. Acquiring small emerging manufacturers specialised in heat pumps and solar collectors is the typical method for extending the product portfolios.

Table 6. Estimation of annual market value and number of units for sold boilers, water heaters, and radiators in the target area. Based on information from (BSRIA, 2004 & 2005).

Commercial boilers Domestic boilers Water heaters Radiators TotalValue, billion

EURUnits,

million

Value, billion

EURUnits,

million

Value, billion

EURUnits,

million

Value, billion

EURUnits,

million

Value, billion

EUREU15 0,4 0,2 4,5 6,1 2,0 10,2 2,1 37,8 9,0NMS10 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,7 0,2 1,3 0,3 6,9 0,8ACC4 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,8 0,2 4,3 0,5EFTA3 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,3 0,1 1,2 0,3Total 0,4 0,2 5,0 7,3 2,4 12,7 2,7 50,3 10,5

7.4.2 Heat pumps

The EHPA (European Heat Pump Association) statistics for 2003 reports a total sale of 178000 units in 13 European countries. Total sales value can be estimated to 800 MEUR. The largest markets were Sweden (38 %) and Norway (31 %). The units consider mostly standard units for single-family houses.

The demand for heat pumps in Sweden has increased during recent years due to higher electricity and carbon dioxide taxes since 2000. Major international heating equipment companies have recently acquired two major Swedish manufacturers of heat pumps. Thermia was bought by Danfoss from Denmark, while IVT is now a subsidiary to BBT Thermotechnik, Germany.

7.4.3 Solar collectors

The total expansion in solar thermal collectors in the target area was be estimated to 1800 MW according to information from (ESTIF, 2005) and (Weiss et al, 2005), representing 11 % of total installed capacity in the end of 2003. This expansion corresponds to a collector surface of 2,6 million m2 and an estimated sales value of 300 MEUR. However, the suppliers are mostly small companies and (ECOFYS, 2003) identified more than 300 manufacturers in Europe.

7.4.4 District heating equipment

The district heating systems in EU15 and EFTA3 expand their networks with about 2800 km trench length annually, corresponding to about 3 % of total installed trench length. This gives a demand of 5600 km of new distribution pipes per year for expansion. These pipes are nowadays manufactured as special prefabricated district heating pipes, a product developed and introduced in the 1970’s. These units include an inner pipe for fluid transport, a surrounding insulating part, and an outer plastic casing protecting the insulation and the inner pipe from moisture and mechanical damage.

A high fraction of the European manufacturing capacity of prefabricated district heating pipes is allocated to Denmark with companies as Logstor/Alstom (merger initiated in May 2005) and Starpipe. Other major European manufacturers are KWH-pipe (Finland), Brugg (Switzerland), Isoplus (Germany), Powerpipe (Sweden), and Ke-Kelit (Austria). Most of these manufacturers have also local assembly plants in other countries. The total annual sales value of prefabricated district heating pipes can be estimated to 400-470 MEUR/year. This sales value corresponds to a total pipe length of 10000-11000 km, also including replacement and some export to NMS10 and ACC4 countries.

In NMS10 and ACC4, several small local manufacturers have appeared during the recent years. No overall annual sales statistics seems to be available for these countries. The information on total installed trench length of district heating pipes is neither transparent nor reliable.


Some district heating pipes are also imported from the new emerging Russian manufacturers of prefabricated district heating pipes. The largest company is Mosflowline, a US-Russian joint venture located in Moscow and started in 1994. During 2003 and 2004, they manufactured 285 and 380 km of district heating pipes, respectively. About 20 % of total sales consider export to rest of Europe.

The total sales of customer substations and corresponding equipment can be estimated to about 250-350 MEUR per year. Major manufacturers as Alfa-Laval (Sweden) and Danfoss (Denmark) deliver prefabricated substations. However, procurement of district heating substations are not harmonised or standardised in Europe. This situation has created many local purchase conditions, giving local markets for many small local suppliers. A harmonisation and standardisation of this small equipment market is expected to decrease future substation costs and increase the competitiveness of district heating.

7.4.5 Heating controls

Heating control equipment is nowadays a part of the expanding building automation industry, which has an annual turnover of about 6 billion EUR in Europe. The hardware equipment part is decreasing since the share of services and software associated to building automation is increasing. One major supplier is Siemens Building Technologies (Germany). Other international suppliers associated to heating controls are Johnston Controls (USA), Honeywell International (USA), Danfoss (Denmark), and Tour Andover Controls (Sweden/USA, but a part of the Schneider-Electric group from France).

7.5 References Andersson S & Werner S, Fjärrvärme i Sverige 2003 (District Heating in Sweden during 2003), written in Swedish but with an English summary. FVB Sverige ab. Västerås 2005.

BRE, District heating system institutional guide, DHCAN project, Watford 2004.

BRE, District heating systems ownership guide DHCAN project, Watford 2004.

BSRIA, Western European Market for Heating, Press releases no 12-15/04. March 2004.

BSRIA, Eastern European Market for Heating, Press releases no 15-18/05. March 2005.

Ecofys, Soltherm Europe – European Market Report. Utrecht, February 2003.

EHPA, Heat pump statistics 2004. July 2005. Available at www.ehpa.org

Ericsson K, Nilsson L J, International biofuel trade – a study of the Swedish import. Biomass and Bioenergy 26(2004), 205-220.

ESTIF, Solar Thermal Markets in Europe – Trends and market statistics 2004. The European Solar Thermal Industry Federation, June 2005.

EUBIONET; Fuel prices in Europe 2002/2003. European Bioenergy Networks, Jyväskylä, March 2003.

European Commission, Implementing the Internal Energy Market, Annual report 2004. DG TREN 2005.

IEA, Coming in from the cold – Improving District Heating Policy in Transition Economies. Paris 2004.

WEC, Regulating District Heating and Cogeneration in Central and Eastern Europe. WEC Task Force on DH/CHP Regulatory Issues in Transitions Economies. London 2004.

Weiss W, Bergmann I, Faninger G, Solar Heating Worldwide – Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply. IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme, May 2005.


http://www.ehpa.org/

8 Conclusions The European heat market in 32 countries during 2003 was the focus for this first work package of the ECOHEATCOOL project. The five major conclusions from this study are:

The final demand of heat dominates the demand side in the European energy system. This fact appears since most fuels are used for heat generation and the large heat losses in the system are associated to energy conversion in the transportation sector and to power generation in the energy transformation sector. The final customers in the industrial, residential, service, and agriculture sectors paid in total 210 billion EUR for the electricity delivered and 180 billion EUR for the net heat obtained. This corresponds to 3,7 % of the total GDP in the target area during 2003. Estimates include national energy taxes, but exclude VAT.

The final demand of heat is dominated by the supply of natural gas and electricity. The total market share for heat from natural gas was 32,9 % in the industrial, residential, and service sectors. The corresponding market share for end use of electricity was also 32,9%. Heat deliveries from district heating systems had only a market share of 6,0 %. The dominance of natural gas and electricity is more pronounced in the five largest national heat markets (Germany, France, Spain, United Kingdom, and Italy). Smaller countries have more diversified heat markets with less natural gas and electricity, and more district heating systems.

About the same specific heat demands appear in Western, Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe for the residential and service sectors. Lower heat demands exist only in the Mediterranean Europe and in the four accession countries. This conclusion was confirmed from both the analysis of actual demands in the target countries and the new European heating index (EHI) introduced in this report. The myth of substantially higher specific residential heat demands in the NMS10 countries was then contradicted. The use of lower indoor temperatures can maybe counteract low insulation standard with respect to heat demands in these countries.

The international energy statistics concerning heat deliveries can be further improved. This international heat statistics published by IEA, Eurostat, and UN have really improved during the last 10-15 years, but some major deficiencies still appear. The IEA energy balances do not recognise the Italian district heat sector, underestimate the French district heat sector, and have wrong allocation of end users in the German district heat sector. Eurostat neglects normally all these three national district heat sectors. The latest example from this deficiency in the Eurostat heat statistics appeared in the recent green paper on energy efficiency (Doing more with less) and its annex 4. The final consumption of derived heat in EU25 during 2002 was presented as 30,3 Mtoe (1,3 EJ), while a more correct figure would have been 40,5 Mtoe (1,7 EJ). The difference is actually the missing whole Italian, French and German district heat sectors. This difference implies that one fourth of the district heat sector in EU25 was deleted from this important document. Eurostat statistics are always used whenever European policy papers are developed. When the inputs concerning district heating are wrong, the scenarios, the conclusions, and the measures to be considered will not reflect the reality and will not be well tailored.

Existing district heating systems can expand further and new systems can be implemented. The market share for district heat is low in the European energy system, but constraints for expansion exist in some countries with high penetration of district heat on the heat market. The available resources to be used in expanded district heating systems are may times larger than the existing use. The fundamental idea of district heating is to use heat from CHP plants, waste


incineration, recovery of residual heat from industries, fuels difficult to handle individually as biomass, and geothermal heat. This input of secondary and renewable resources to district heating systems replaces mainly fossil primary energy supply. Hence, more district heat in the European energy system will generate more electricity in CHP plants, extend the use of renewable resources, and reduce the final demand of natural gas and fuel oil. In the end, the carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced and the security of supply will increase, since the overall energy efficiency will increase. These possible changes will be quantified in the fourth work package of the ECOHEATCOOL project.


Appendix 1. Background information

Table 7. Population and GDP

Country Country label Country group

Population 2003,

millions

GDP 2003, Billion EUR

GDP/capita, EUR

GDP PPS 2003, Billion

EUR

GDP PPS/capita

EURAustria AT EU15 8,1 226 27846 211 26035Belgium BE EU15 10,4 270 25978 260 25060Bulgaria BG ACC4 7,8 18 2266 50 6341Croatia HR ACC4 4,4 26 5797 43 9774Cyprus CY NMS10 0,7 12 16120 13 17486Czech RepubliCZ NMS10 10,2 80 7847 149 14624Denmark DK EU15 5,4 187 34715 140 25983Estonia EE NMS10 1,4 8 5942 14 10463Finland FI EU15 5,2 143 27496 127 24272France FR EU15 59,8 1557 26055 1480 24759Germany DE EU15 82,5 2165 26230 1931 23402Greece GR EU15 11,0 153 13911 190 17237Hungary HU NMS10 10,1 73 7228 129 12768Iceland IS EFTA3 0,3 9 31789 7 24817Ireland IE EU15 4,0 135 33733 113 28159Italy IT EU15 57,6 1301 22584 1310 22750Latvia LV NMS10 2,3 10 4244 20 8721Lithuania LT NMS10 3,5 16 4711 34 9744Luxembourg LU EU15 0,4 24 53241 21 45706Malta MT NMS10 0,4 4 10576 6 15518Netherlands NL EU15 16,2 454 27998 418 25741Norway NO EFTA3 4,6 195 42752 143 31396Poland PL NMS10 38,2 185 4848 374 9785Portugal PT EU15 10,4 131 12500 166 15900Romania RO ACC4 21,7 50 2316 138 6330Slovak RepublSK NMS10 5,4 29 5382 60 11138Slovenia SI NMS10 2,0 25 12314 33 16348Spain ES EU15 41,9 745 17785 890 21260Sweden SE EU15 9,0 267 29833 220 24524Switzerland CH EFTA3 7,3 285 38818 204 27854Turkey TR ACC4 70,7 212 3002 417 5898United KingdoUK EU15 59,4 1591 26779 1515 25489Total 572,5 10587 18494 10825 18911

Sources: Eurostat online database, 2005.


Table 8. Information about residential and service sector buildings during 2003

Country Country label Country group

Residential dwellings,

1000

m2 per dwelling

Total residential

area, million m2

Residential area per

capita, m2

Total service

sector area, million m2

Service sector area per capita,

m2

Condition for service sector

area

Austria AT EU15 3280 93,9 308 37,9 119 14,6 EstimatedBelgium BE EU15 4820 86,3 416 40,1 151 14,6 EstimatedBulgaria BG ACC4 3692 63,0 233 29,7 31 4,0 EstimatedCroatia HR ACC4 1852 71,0 131 29,9 33 7,5 Statistical sourceCyprus CY NMS10 299 110,0 33 45,5 7 10,0 EstimatedCzech RepubliCZ NMS10 4366 76,3 333 32,6 100 9,8 Statistical sourceDenmark DK EU15 2561 109,1 279 51,8 114 21,1 Statistical sourceEstonia EE NMS10 624 60,2 38 27,8 14 10,0 EstimatedFinland FI EU15 2574 77,0 198 38,0 101 19,3 Statistical sourceFrance FR EU15 29495 89,6 2643 44,2 861 14,4 Statistical sourceGermany DE EU15 38925 89,7 3492 42,3 1852 22,4 Statistical sourceGreece GR EU15 5465 82,7 452 41,0 149 13,5 Statistical sourceHungary HU NMS10 4134 75,0 310 30,6 101 10,0 EstimatedIceland IS EFTA3 107 147,0 16 54,2 7 22,8 Statistical sourceIreland IE EU15 1554 104,0 162 40,4 58 14,6 EstimatedItaly IT EU15 26526 90,3 2395 41,6 453 7,9 Statistical sourceLatvia LV NMS10 967 55,4 54 23,0 23 10,0 EstimatedLithuania LT NMS10 1292 60,6 78 22,7 14 4,2 Statistical sourceLuxembourg LU EU15 176 125,0 22 48,9 7 14,6 EstimatedMalta MT NMS10 127 106,4 14 33,9 4 10,0 EstimatedNetherlands NL EU15 6811 98,0 667 41,1 183 11,3 Statistical sourceNorway NO EFTA3 1985 106,8 212 46,4 95 20,8 Statistical sourcePoland PL NMS10 11764 68,2 802 21,0 382 10,0 EstimatedPortugal PT EU15 5318 83,0 441 42,3 126 12,1 Statistical sourceRomania RO ACC4 8129 65,2 530 24,4 87 4,0 EstimatedSlovak RepublSK NMS10 1885 92,0 173 32,2 81 15,0 Statistical sourceSlovenia SI NMS10 785 75,0 59 29,5 16 7,8 Statistical sourceSpain ES EU15 20947 90,0 1885 45,0 341 8,1 Statistical sourceSweden SE EU15 4351 91,6 399 44,5 161 17,9 Statistical sourceSwitzerland CH EFTA3 3638 89,0 324 44,1 136 18,5 Statistical sourceTurkey TR ACC4 16236 95,0 1542 21,8 268 3,8 Statistical sourceUnited KingdoUK EU15 25617 86,9 2226 37,5 892 15,0 Statistical sourceTotal 240302 86,8 20867 36,5 6966 12,2

Sources: Dwellings and m2/dwelling: Housings statistics in the European Union 2004 and UN-ECE, Bulletin of Housing statistics for Europe and North America 2004. Service sector: Various individual sources.


Table 9. Industrial sector heat demands, market shares and GJ per capita

Market shares


Petroleum Products Natural Gas Geothermal Solar/Wind/O

ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 10% 19% 27% 0% 0% 10% 30% 3%Belgium, EU15 13% 11% 37% 0% 0% 2% 32% 4%Denmark, EU15 6% 25% 26% 0% 0% 5% 32% 6%Finland, EU15 7% 11% 6% 0% 0% 29% 36% 12%France, EU15 8% 18% 35% 0% 0% 4% 35% 0%Germany, EU15 14% 7% 36% 0% 0% 0% 41% 2%Greece, EU15 13% 43% 8% 0% 0% 4% 31% 0%Ireland, EU15 2% 41% 20% 0% 0% 5% 32% 0%Italy, EU15 6% 16% 42% 0% 0% 1% 35% 0%Luxembourg, EU15 8% 5% 43% 0% 0% 0% 41% 3%Netherlands, EU15 4% 12% 44% 0% 0% 1% 29% 10%Portugal, EU15 2% 29% 16% 0% 0% 21% 27% 4%Spain, EU15 5% 19% 40% 0% 0% 5% 31% 0%Sweden, EU15 6% 14% 3% 0% 0% 32% 43% 3%United Kingdom, EU15 4% 20% 40% 0% 0% 1% 32% 4%Cyprus, NMS10 8% 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 0%Czech Republic, NMS10 30% 6% 29% 0% 0% 3% 22% 10%Estonia, NMS10 7% 16% 28% 0% 0% 10% 32% 8%Hungary, NMS10 10% 7% 41% 0% 0% 1% 25% 15%Latvia, NMS10 1% 12% 42% 0% 0% 19% 23% 3%Lithuania, NMS10 10% 8% 31% 0% 0% 12% 31% 8%Malta, NMS10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0Poland, NMS10 31% 11% 15% 0% 0% 7% 24% 13%Slovak Republic, NMS10 24% 8% 33% 0% 0% 6% 25% 4%Slovenia, NMS10 3% 14% 32% 0% 0% 6% 40% 4%Bulgaria, ACC4 19% 23% 22% 0% 0% 2% 25% 9%Croatia, ACC4 7% 29% 34% 0% 0% 4% 22% 4%Romania, ACC4 8% 10% 49% 0% 0% 5% 23% 4%Turkey, ACC4 41% 23% 9% 0% 1% 0% 26% 0%Iceland, EFTA3 10% 15% 0% 7% 0% 0% 68% 0%Norway, EFTA3 10% 13% 2% 0% 0% 8% 67% 0%Switzerland, EFTA3 3% 22% 19% 0% 0% 10% 42% 4%

11,7% 15,5% 30,8% 0,0% 0,0% 4,8% 33,7% 3,4%

Per capita



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 3,8 6,9 9,8 0,0 0,0 3,5 10,9 1,1Belgium, EU15 5,6 4,9 15,9 0,0 0,0 0,9 13,9 1,8Denmark, EU15 1,1 5,2 5,3 0,0 0,0 1,1 6,5 1,3Finland, EU15 6,1 9,2 4,9 0,0 0,0 24,6 30,6 10,6France, EU15 1,9 4,0 8,0 0,0 0,0 0,8 8,0 0,0Germany, EU15 3,4 1,8 8,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 10,1 0,6Greece, EU15 1,9 6,4 1,1 0,0 0,0 0,7 4,6 0,0Ireland, EU15 0,4 8,4 4,1 0,0 0,0 0,9 6,4 0,0Italy, EU15 1,7 4,2 11,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 9,0 0,0Luxembourg, EU15 6,2 4,0 33,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 31,8 2,1Netherlands, EU15 1,1 3,8 13,7 0,0 0,0 0,2 9,0 3,2Portugal, EU15 0,5 6,2 3,3 0,0 0,0 4,5 5,8 0,9Spain, EU15 1,3 5,1 10,5 0,0 0,0 1,3 8,3 0,0Sweden, EU15 3,1 7,3 1,4 0,0 0,0 16,6 22,4 1,8United Kingdom, EU15 0,9 4,2 8,4 0,0 0,0 0,1 6,9 0,8Cyprus, NMS10 1,7 17,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,5 0,0Czech Republic, NMS10 9,7 1,8 9,3 0,0 0,0 1,0 7,2 3,2Estonia, NMS10 1,1 2,6 4,6 0,0 0,0 1,7 5,4 1,3Hungary, NMS10 1,3 1,0 5,5 0,0 0,0 0,2 3,4 2,0Latvia, NMS10 0,2 1,2 4,5 0,0 0,0 2,1 2,5 0,3Lithuania, NMS10 0,9 0,7 2,7 0,0 0,0 1,0 2,7 0,7Malta, NMS10 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,0 0,0Poland, NMS10 4,9 1,8 2,3 0,0 0,0 1,1 3,8 2,1Slovak Republic, NMS10 7,2 2,5 9,8 0,0 0,0 1,8 7,6 1,2Slovenia, NMS10 1,0 4,1 9,4 0,0 0,0 1,8 11,9 1,2Bulgaria, ACC4 3,3 3,9 3,7 0,0 0,0 0,4 4,2 1,6Croatia, ACC4 0,8 3,6 4,2 0,0 0,0 0,5 2,8 0,5Romania, ACC4 1,3 1,6 7,9 0,0 0,0 0,9 3,7 0,7Turkey, ACC4 4,3 2,5 1,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 2,7 0,0Iceland, EFTA3 11,2 15,9 0,0 8,0 0,0 0,0 73,0 0,0Norway, EFTA3 5,4 7,1 1,4 0,0 0,0 4,4 38,3 0,3Switzerland, EFTA3 0,6 4,8 4,0 0,1 0,0 2,1 9,0 0,8

%


Table 10. Other sector heat demands, market shares and GJ per capita

Market shares



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 1% 24% 19% 0% 1% 13% 31% 12%Belgium, EU15 1% 38% 34% 0% 0% 1% 25% 0%Denmark, EU15 0% 17% 12% 0% 0% 5% 30% 35%Finland, EU15 0% 20% 1% 0% 0% 9% 39% 31%France, EU15 0% 24% 28% 0% 0% 9% 37% 1%Germany, EU15 1% 25% 37% 0% 0% 3% 25% 8%Greece, EU15 0% 50% 1% 0% 1% 6% 41% 0%Ireland, EU15 7% 41% 18% 0% 0% 1% 33% 0%Italy, EU15 0% 19% 49% 1% 0% 2% 29% 0%Luxembourg, EU15 0% 37% 32% 0% 0% 2% 26% 4%Netherlands, EU15 0% 3% 65% 0% 0% 1% 25% 6%Portugal, EU15 0% 30% 5% 0% 0% 16% 48% 0%Spain, EU15 0% 30% 15% 0% 0% 6% 48% 0%Sweden, EU15 0% 14% 1% 0% 0% 5% 50% 30%United Kingdom, EU15 1% 6% 58% 0% 0% 0% 33% 1%Cyprus, NMS10 0% 20% 0% 0% 9% 1% 70% 0%Czech Republic, NMS10 8% 2% 36% 0% 0% 4% 29% 21%Estonia, NMS10 1% 7% 8% 0% 0% 20% 26% 39%Hungary, NMS10 2% 5% 57% 1% 0% 5% 20% 10%Latvia, NMS10 2% 8% 9% 0% 0% 30% 17% 35%Lithuania, NMS10 3% 6% 9% 0% 0% 18% 22% 42%Malta, NMS10 0% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 76% 0%Poland, NMS10 16% 16% 17% 0% 0% 8% 20% 24%Slovak Republic, NMS10 2% 3% 46% 0% 0% 0% 25% 24%Slovenia, NMS10 0% 39% 7% 0% 0% 13% 32% 8%Bulgaria, ACC4 8% 9% 1% 0% 0% 14% 46% 21%Croatia, ACC4 0% 26% 23% 0% 0% 9% 34% 9%Romania, ACC4 0% 9% 32% 0% 0% 19% 14% 26%Turkey, ACC4 6% 23% 20% 4% 1% 20% 26% 0%Iceland, EFTA3 0% 18% 0% 49% 0% 0% 13% 20%Norway, EFTA3 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 7% 72% 3%Switzerland, EFTA3 0% 42% 16% 1% 0% 4% 34% 2%

1,8% 19,8% 33,2% 0,4% 0,2% 5,7% 31,4% 7,5%

Per capita



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 0,6 11,7 8,9 0,0 0,4 6,2 14,6 5,6Belgium, EU15 0,4 19,9 18,1 0,0 0,0 0,5 13,3 0,2Denmark, EU15 0,2 8,4 6,2 0,0 0,1 2,8 14,9 17,8Finland, EU15 0,1 12,7 0,5 0,0 0,0 6,0 24,8 19,8France, EU15 0,2 10,0 12,1 0,1 0,0 3,7 15,9 0,5Germany, EU15 0,4 11,4 17,1 0,1 0,1 1,5 11,4 3,7Greece, EU15 0,0 13,7 0,1 0,0 0,4 1,7 11,2 0,1Ireland, EU15 3,1 17,0 7,5 0,0 0,0 0,3 13,9 0,0Italy, EU15 0,0 5,5 14,5 0,2 0,0 0,6 8,6 0,0Luxembourg, EU15 0,0 21,8 18,7 0,0 0,0 0,9 15,4 2,1Netherlands, EU15 0,0 1,8 33,6 0,0 0,0 0,4 12,9 2,9Portugal, EU15 0,0 5,5 1,0 0,0 0,1 3,0 8,9 0,1Spain, EU15 0,1 6,4 3,2 0,0 0,0 1,4 10,0 0,0Sweden, EU15 0,0 8,1 0,7 0,0 0,0 2,9 28,6 17,2United Kingdom, EU15 0,4 2,5 22,6 0,0 0,0 0,2 13,0 0,5Cyprus, NMS10 0,0 4,4 0,0 0,0 2,1 0,2 15,5 0,0Czech Republic, NMS10 2,7 0,6 13,1 0,0 0,0 1,5 10,5 7,7Estonia, NMS10 0,5 2,4 2,8 0,0 0,0 7,1 9,2 13,9Hungary, NMS10 0,7 1,8 21,2 0,3 0,0 1,8 7,4 3,7Latvia, NMS10 0,6 2,4 2,8 0,0 0,0 9,5 5,4 11,3Lithuania, NMS10 0,7 1,2 1,9 0,0 0,0 3,8 4,6 9,0Malta, NMS10 0,0 3,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 11,3 0,0Poland, NMS10 4,0 4,0 4,4 0,0 0,0 2,2 5,1 6,0Slovak Republic, NMS10 0,6 0,7 13,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 7,3 6,8Slovenia, NMS10 0,1 12,7 2,4 0,0 0,0 4,4 10,4 2,7Bulgaria, ACC4 1,3 1,4 0,2 0,0 0,0 2,1 7,1 3,3Croatia, ACC4 0,1 5,8 5,2 0,0 0,0 2,0 7,6 1,9Romania, ACC4 0,0 1,3 5,0 0,0 0,0 2,9 2,2 4,0Turkey, ACC4 0,7 2,5 2,2 0,5 0,1 2,2 2,8 0,0Iceland, EFTA3 0,0 28,1 0,0 75,3 0,0 0,0 20,5 30,2Norway, EFTA3 0,0 10,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,2 41,6 1,5Switzerland, EFTA3 0,0 20,7 7,8 0,6 0,1 1,9 16,6 0,9


Table 11. Residential sector heat demands, market shares and GJ per capita

Market shares



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 2% 27% 22% 0% 1% 17% 23% 8%Belgium, EU15 1% 35% 36% 0% 0% 1% 26% 0%Denmark, EU15 0% 15% 15% 0% 0% 7% 23% 40%Finland, EU15 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 14% 38% 32%France, EU15 1% 20% 40% 0% 0% 11% 28% 0%Germany, EU15 1% 25% 37% 0% 0% 5% 20% 12%Greece, EU15 0% 56% 0% 0% 2% 10% 31% 1%Ireland, EU15 12% 37% 20% 0% 0% 1% 29% 0%Italy, EU15 0% 18% 57% 0% 0% 3% 22% 0%Luxembourg, EU15 0% 43% 38% 0% 0% 2% 12% 4%Netherlands, EU15 0% 1% 74% 0% 0% 1% 22% 2%Portugal, EU15 0% 24% 5% 0% 0% 29% 40% 0%Spain, EU15 0% 28% 20% 0% 0% 11% 40% 0%Sweden, EU15 0% 8% 1% 0% 0% 8% 50% 34%United Kingdom, EU15 1% 7% 66% 0% 0% 0% 26% 0%Cyprus, NMS10 0% 34% 0% 0% 16% 1% 49% 0%Czech Republic, NMS10 7% 1% 39% 0% 0% 6% 24% 24%Estonia, NMS10 1% 1% 4% 0% 0% 28% 17% 48%Hungary, NMS10 3% 3% 59% 0% 0% 7% 17% 11%Latvia, NMS10 1% 4% 6% 0% 0% 38% 10% 4Lithuania, NMS10 2% 5% 9% 0% 0% 24% 14% 46%Malta, NMS10 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 69% 0%Poland, NMS10 18% 6% 18% 0% 0% 11% 13% 33%Slovak Republic, NMS10 2% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 17% 27%Slovenia, NMS10 0% 34% 7% 0% 0% 21% 26% 12%Bulgaria, ACC4 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 20% 42% 25%Croatia, ACC4 0% 18% 28% 0% 0% 13% 31% 10%Romania, ACC4 0% 5% 33% 0% 0% 21% 11% 29%Turkey, ACC4 9% 17% 22% 6% 2% 28% 17% 0%Iceland, EFTA3 0% 1% 0% 64% 0% 0% 8% 27%Norway, EFTA3 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 13% 78% 1Switzerland, EFTA3 0% 49% 16% 2% 0% 3% 28%

2,2% 17,8% 37,7% 0,5% 0,3% 8,0% 24,9% 8,6%

Per capita



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 0,5 8,6 7,0 0,0 0,3 5,5 7,3 2,6Belgium, EU15 0,4 11,8 12,3 0,0 0,0 0,5 9,0 0,1Denmark, EU15 0,0 4,3 4,6 0,0 0,0 2,1 6,9 12,0Finland, EU15 0,1 5,8 0,2 0,0 0,0 5,1 14,1 12,0France, EU15 0,2 5,9 11,9 0,1 0,0 3,4 8,5 0,0Germany, EU15 0,2 7,8 11,6 0,1 0,1 1,5 6,1 3,7Greece, EU15 0,0 9,6 0,1 0,0 0,4 1,7 5,4 0,1Ireland, EU15 2,9 8,9 4,8 0,0 0,0 0,3 6,8 0,0Italy, EU15 0,0 3,3 10,6 0,0 0,0 0,5 4,1 0,0Luxembourg, EU15 0,0 21,2 18,7 0,0 0,0 0,9 6,0 2,1Netherlands, EU15 0,0 0,1 17,6 0,0 0,0 0,3 5,2 0,4Portugal, EU15 0,0 2,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 3,0 4,1 0,0Spain, EU15 0,0 3,2 2,4 0,0 0,0 1,3 4,7 0,0Sweden, EU15 0,0 2,6 0,3 0,0 0,0 2,6 16,5 11,3United Kingdom, EU15 0,4 1,8 17,9 0,0 0,0 0,1 7,0 0,0Cyprus, NMS10 0,0 4,4 0,0 0,0 2,1 0,1 6,4 0,0Czech Republic, NMS10 1,4 0,2 8,4 0,0 0,0 1,2 5,1 5,2Estonia, NMS10 0,3 0,4 1,0 0,0 0,0 6,8 4,2 11,5Hungary, NMS10 0,7 0,8 13,5 0,0 0,0 1,6 3,9 2,6Latvia, NMS10 0,2 0,8 1,3 0,0 0,0 8,1 2,2 8,6Lithuania, NMS10 0,3 0,7 1,2 0,0 0,0 3,5 2,0 6,6Malta, NMS10 0,0 2,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,6 0,0Poland, NMS10 2,9 1,0 2,8 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,1 5,2Slovak Republic, NMS10 0,4 0,1 10,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 3,4 5,3Slovenia, NMS10 0,1 7,2 1,5 0,0 0,0 4,4 5,4 2,6Bulgaria, ACC4 1,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,1 4,3 2Croatia, ACC4 0,1 2,8 4,2 0,0 0,0 2,0 4,7 1,5Romania, ACC4 0,0 0,7 4,2 0,0 0,0 2,7 1,4 3Turkey, ACC4 0,7 1,3 1,7 0,5 0,1 2,2 1,3 0Iceland, EFTA3 0,0 0,8 0,0 60,4 0,0 0,0 7,7 26,0Norway, EFTA3 0,0 2,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 24,3 0,3Switzerland, EFTA3 0,0 14,0 4,7 0,5 0,1 0,9 8,2 0,4

0%

%1%

,5

,7,0


Table 12. Service sector heat demands market shares and GJ per capita

Market shares



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 0% 11% 14% 0% 1% 2% 50% 22%Belgium, EU15 0% 36% 37% 0% 0% 0% 27% 1%Denmark, EU15 0% 4% 9% 0% 0% 3% 47% 38%Finland, EU15 0% 15% 1% 0% 0% 2% 47% 36%France, EU15 0% 26% 0% 0% 0% 2% 67%Germany, EU15 1% 22% 40% 0% 0% 0% 37% 0%Greece, EU15 0% 17% 1% 0% 0% 0% 81% 0%Ireland, EU15 1% 37% 17% 0% 0% 0% 45% 0%Italy, EU15 0% 7% 44% 2% 0% 0% 48% 0%Luxembourg, EU15 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 98% 0%Netherlands, EU15 0% 3% 51% 0% 0% 0% 35% 10%Portugal, EU15 0% 27% 6% 0% 0% 0% 67%Spain, EU15 0% 21% 10% 0% 0% 1% 67% 0%Sweden, EU15 0% 18% 2% 0% 0% 1% 52% 27%United Kingdom, EU15 0% 4% 41% 0% 0% 0% 50% 4%Cyprus, NMS10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 98%Czech Republic, NMS10 9% 3% 33% 0% 0% 1% 36% 18%Estonia, NMS10 1% 12% 17% 0% 0% 3% 44% 23%Hungary, NMS10 0% 1% 59% 3% 0% 1% 26% 9%Latvia, NMS10 4% 9% 13% 0% 0% 13% 32% 29%Lithuania, NMS10 6% 2% 7% 0% 0% 4% 42% 3Malta, NMS10 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 83% 0%Poland, NMS10 8% 10% 25% 0% 0% 2% 42% 13%Slovak Republic, NMS10 2% 3% 30% 0% 0% 0% 45% 19%Slovenia, NMS10 0% 43% 8% 0% 0% 0% 47% 2%Bulgaria, ACC4 1% 7% 3% 0% 0% 1% 69% 19%Croatia, ACC4 1% 23% 16% 0% 0% 0% 53% 7%Romania, ACC4 0% 18% 31% 1% 0% 8% 32% 10%Turkey, ACC4 0% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0% 73%Iceland, EFTA3 0% 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 49% 19%Norway, EFTA3 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 1% 76% 6%Switzerland, EFTA3 0% 34% 17% 0% 0% 5% 41%

0,9% 15,6% 27,4% 0,3% 0,1% 1,0% 48,6% 6,3%

Per capita



ther


Electricity Heat

Austria, EU15 0,0 1,5 1,9 0,0 0,1 0,2 6,7 2,9Belgium, EU15 0,0 5,5 5,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,1 0Denmark, EU15 0,0 0,6 1,3 0,0 0,0 0,4 6,8 5,5Finland, EU15 0,0 3,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,3 10,1 7,8France, EU15 0,0 2,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 7,2 0,5Germany, EU15 0,1 3,0 5,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,0 0,0Greece, EU15 0,0 1,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,9 0,0Ireland, EU15 0,2 5,9 2,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 7,1 0,0Italy, EU15 0,0 0,6 3,8 0,2 0,0 0,0 4,2 0,0Luxembourg, EU15 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 8,8 0,0Netherlands, EU15 0,0 0,6 10,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 6,9 1,9Portugal, EU15 0,0 1,8 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,5 0,0Spain, EU15 0,0 1,6 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,1 4,9 0,0Sweden, EU15 0,0 4,1 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,3 11,4 5,9United Kingdom, EU15 0,0 0,5 4,6 0,0 0,0 0,1 5,8 0,5Cyprus, NMS10 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 8,5 0,0Czech Republic, NMS10 1,2 0,4 4,5 0,0 0,0 0,1 5,0 2,4Estonia, NMS10 0,1 1,1 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,3 4,4 2,3Hungary, NMS10 0,0 0,2 7,0 0,3 0,0 0,2 3,1 1,0Latvia, NMS10 0,3 0,8 1,1 0,0 0,0 1,2 2,9 2,7Lithuania, NMS10 0,4 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,3 2,5 2,3Malta, NMS10 0,0 1,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,7 0,0Poland, NMS10 0,5 0,6 1,5 0,0 0,0 0,1 2,6 0,8Slovak Republic, NMS10 0,2 0,2 2,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 3,3 1,4Slovenia, NMS10 0,0 4,3 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,7 0,2Bulgaria, ACC4 0,0 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,7 0Croatia, ACC4 0,0 1,2 0,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,9 0,4Romania, ACC4 0,0 0,4 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,8 0Turkey, ACC4 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,4 0Iceland, EFTA3 0,0 0,0 0,0 6,9 0,0 0,0 10,6 4,2Norway, EFTA3 0,0 3,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 15,7 1,2Switzerland, EFTA3 0,0 6,6 3,2 0,1 0,0 0,9 7,9 0,5

4%

0%

0%

8%

0%

3%

,2

,7

,2,0


Table 13. Industrial sector net heat and electricity demands, PJ during 2003



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Electricity Heat

Austria 31 56 80 0 0 28 88Belgium 58 51 165 0 0 9 144 19Bulgaria 26 30 29 0 0 3 33 13Croatia 4 16 19 0 0 2 12 2Cyprus 1 13 0 0 0 0 2Czech Republic 99 19 95 0 0 10 74 33Denmark 6 28 29 0 0 6 35 7Estonia 1 4 6 0 0 2 7Finland 32 48 25 0 0 128 159 55France 112 238 479 0 0 48 479 0Germany 284 148 723 0 0 0 835 47Greece 21 71 12 0 0 7 51 0Hungary 14 10 55 0 0 2 34Iceland 3 5 0 2 0 0 21Ireland 1 33 16 0 0 4 26 0Italy 96 245 635 0 0 10 520 0Latvia 0 3 10 0 0 5 6Lithuania 3 2 9 0 0 4 9 2Luxembourg 3 2 15 0 0 0 14 1Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 2Netherlands 19 62 222 0 0 4 147 51Norway 25 33 6 0 0 20 175 1Poland 187 68 89 0 0 42 145Portugal 5 65 35 0 0 47 61Romania 28 34 172 0 0 19 80 14Slovak Republic 39 14 53 0 0 10 41 6Slovenia 2 8 19 0 0 4 24 2Spain 53 215 438 0 0 54 347 0Sweden 28 65 13 0 0 148 200 16Switzerland 5 35 30 0 0 16 66Turkey 306 174 70 0 5 0 193 0United Kingdom 53 248 502 0 0 8 410 48

1546 2043 4051 3 5 638 4440 444

9

0

2

200

1

0

799

6

Table 14 Other sector net heat and electricity demands, PJ during 2003



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Electricity Heat

Austria 5 95 72 0 3 50 119 45Belgium 4 206 187 0 0 5 138 3Bulgaria 10 11 2 0 0 17 55 26Croatia 0 25 23 0 0 9 33 8Cyprus 0 3 0 0 2 0 11 0Czech Republic 28 6 134 0 0 15 107 78Denmark 1 45 34 0 0 15 80 96Estonia 1 3 4 0 0 10 12 19Finland 1 66 2 0 0 31 129 103France 11 597 721 5 1 220 949 27Germany 29 942 1411 5 9 122 941 307Greece 0 151 2 0 4 19 123 1Hungary 7 19 215 3 0 19 75 37Iceland 0 8 0 22 0 0 6 9Ireland 12 68 30 0 0 1 56 0Italy 0 319 835 9 0 34 495 0Latvia 1 6 6 0 0 22 12 26Lithuania 2 4 7 0 0 13 16 31Luxembourg 0 10 8 0 0 0 7 1Malta 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0Netherlands 1 29 545 0 1 6 210 46Norway 0 48 0 0 0 19 190 7Poland 153 153 167 0 0 82 194 230Portugal 0 57 10 0 1 31 93 1Romania 1 29 108 1 0 63 48 87Slovak Republic 3 4 72 0 0 0 39 36Slovenia 0 25 5 0 0 9 21 5Spain 2 269 133 0 2 57 420 0Sweden 0 73 6 0 0 26 257 154Switzerland 0 152 57 5 1 14 122 6Turkey 48 179 155 33 10 154 201 0United Kingdom 23 146 1343 0 1 11 774 28

344 3750 6295 84 35 1074 5938 1419


Table 15. Residential sector net heat and electricity demands, PJ during 2003



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Electricity Heat

Austria 4 70 56 0 3 45 60 21Belgium 4 122 128 0 0 5 94Bulgaria 10 1 0 0 0 16 34Croatia 0 12 19 0 0 9 21Cyprus 0 3 0 0 2 0 5 0Czech Republic 14 2 85 0 0 12 52 53Denmark 0 23 25 0 0 11 37 64Estonia 0 0 1 0 0 9 6Finland 0 30 1 0 0 26 73France 11 352 710 5 1 205 507 0Germany 19 641 957 5 8 122 502 307Greece 0 106 1 0 4 19 59Hungary 7 8 137 0 0 16 40 27Iceland 0 0 0 18 0 0 2 8Ireland 12 35 19 0 0 1 27Italy 0 193 609 0 0 30 234 0Latvia 1 2 3 0 0 19 5Lithuania 1 2 4 0 0 12 7Luxembourg 0 10 8 0 0 0 3 1Malta 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0Netherlands 0 2 285 0 1 5 84Norway 0 12 0 0 0 18 111Poland 112 38 109 0 0 66 79 200Portugal 0 26 6 0 1 31 43Romania 0 15 91 0 0 59 30 79Slovak Republic 2 0 57 0 0 0 18Slovenia 0 14 3 0 0 9 11Spain 2 136 99 0 1 53 195 0Sweden 0 23 2 0 0 23 148Switzerland 0 103 34 4 0 6 60Turkey 48 93 120 33 10 154 91 0United Kingdom 23 106 1063 0 0 5 417

272 2183 4633 65 31 989 3055 1056

1207

1663

1

0

2023

71

0

295

1013

0

Table 16. Service sector net heat and electricity demands, PJ during 2003



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Electricity Heat

Austria 0 12 15 0 1 2 55Belgium 0 58 59 0 0 0 43 2Bulgaria 0 2 1 0 0 0 21 6Croatia 0 5 4 0 0 0 13 2Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0Czech Republic 12 4 46 0 0 1 51 25Denmark 0 3 7 0 0 2 37Estonia 0 2 2 0 0 0 6 3Finland 0 17 1 0 0 2 53 41France 0 170 0 0 0 14 430 27Germany 9 245 444 0 0 0 410 0Greece 0 11 1 0 0 0 54 0Hungary 0 2 71 3 0 2 31 1Iceland 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 1Ireland 1 23 11 0 0 0 28 0Italy 0 33 222 9 0 0 243 0Latvia 1 2 3 0 0 3 7 6Lithuania 1 0 1 0 0 1 9 8Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0Netherlands 1 10 163 0 0 1 111 31Norway 0 16 0 0 0 1 72 5Poland 19 24 57 0 0 4 99 29Portugal 0 19 4 0 0 0 47 0Romania 0 10 16 0 0 4 17 5Slovak Republic 1 1 12 0 0 0 18 8Slovenia 0 9 2 0 0 0 9 0Spain 0 65 31 0 1 3 206 0Sweden 0 37 3 0 0 3 102 53Switzerland 0 48 23 1 0 7 58 4Turkey 0 0 36 0 0 0 98 0United Kingdom 0 30 276 0 1 3 343 27

47 859 1512 16 3 53 2684 347

24

30

1


Table 17. District heat prices

EUR/GJRegion 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003EU15 Austria 14,21 14,42 14,93 14,96 14,96EU15 Denmark 16,68 17,19 16,51 17,83 17,48EU15 Finland 7,51 7,89 8,30 8,47 8,30EU15 France 9,95 10,78 11,45 11,89 11,89EU15 Germany 11,27 12,46 13,87 13,66 13,89EU15 Italy 14,08 15,91 16,73 15,94 16,74EU15 Netherlands 8,99 10,40 10,72 10,72 11,56EU15 Sweden 11,97 13,03 12,18 12,77 13,65EU15 United Kingdom 6,29 6,83 6,71 7,32 6,64NMS10 Czech Republic 7,75 8,40 9,36 10,35 10,05NMS10 Estonia 5,31 5,41 5,90 6,13 6,09NMS10 Hungary 6,68 7,15 6,76 9,53 9,40NMS10 Latvia 7,94 9,37 9,55 9,32 8,72NMS10 Lithuania 7,22 8,19 9,00 9,24 9,26NMS10 Poland 6,24 6,86 8,01 8,11 7,73NMS10 Slovak Republic 4,98 5,50 6,58 7,19 8,73NMS10 Slovenia 6,01 7,46 9,81 9,36 9,03ACC4 Bulgaria 4,08 4,32 4,42 5,62 6,11ACC4 Croatia 5,81 6,00 6,20 7,33 7,20ACC4 Romania 1,96 3,77 4,25 5,07 5,89EFTA3 Iceland 4,17 4,63 4,15 4,92 5,04EFTA3 Norway 9,33 10,47 12,95 14,02 14,50EFTA3 Switzerland 8,93 10,63 11,08 11,42 12,00


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