thomas guerriero research division copyrite 2009, gce non-proprietary correlation in strategic...

THOMAS GUERRIERO RESEARCH DIVISION

Copyrite 2009, GCE

Non-Proprietary CorrelationIn

Strategic Global Investing

Created & Developed By:

Giuseppe M. Piraino

Thomas A. Guerriero


Copyrite 2009, GCE

“ There are two types of people in this world,People that find an excuse and people that

find a way.Excuses are plentiful, just like the masses of

ordinary people. To find a way is the roadless traveled. But, those individuals who

succeed, find it”.

- Giuseppe M. Piraino


Copyrite 2009, GCE

Paradigm Shift

• A complete change in thinking or belief systems.

• This allows for the creation of a new condition previously thought impossible or unacceptable.


Copyrite 2009, GCE

CORRELATION

• Indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables.


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THE THEORY• My research has proven the following findings:• We determine the countries that are the global leaders in Real GDP growth• We use this variable as our lagging indicator.• We then determine who are the publicly traded companies on US Exchanges who are

the major investors in those countries and in what industries.• We use this as our current variable.• We then structure positions accordingly after an extensive due diligence process, with

the expectation of substantial appreciation over the next several years.• After 4 consecutive years of the country not making the top 5 real GDP growth

countries, we sell the position. Unless that position is related to an alternate countries real GDP Growth investment surge, for the alternate country. Then the 4 year timeline starts over.

• This theory has produced significant returns in comparison to the major global indexes


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VARIABLES

• REAL GDP GROWTH• The inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the

value of all the goods and services produced in a given year by a country.

• EXPLORATORY FOREIGN INVESTMENT• This reflects Public companies that trade on the US

exchanges.• That are the leaders of investing in the Worlds Leading

Economies.• This is determined by the Annual leaders in Real GDP

Growth in comparison to all the world.


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REAL GDP GROWTH 2001

• TURKMENISTAN – 18.62%

• KAZAKSTAN – 11.82%

• AZERBAIJAN – 8.28%


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TURKMENISTAN

REAL GDP GROWTH UP 18.62%• 5th Largest reserve of natural gas • Substantial oil reserve• 10th largest cotton producer • One of the largest investors in the country is,

PETRO CHINA (PTR) on NYSE • January 2002 accumulation @ approx. $18.63

per share• Currently up over 800% trading around $150

(June 1st 2008)


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PETRO CHINA (PTR ON THE NYSE)


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KAZAKSTAN

REAL GDP GROWTH UP 11.82%• Most of GDP 30% comes from petroleum• One of the largest investors in the country is

CHEVRON (CVX on NYSE)• They have invested billions in this country• Experts are projecting that by the year 2015, 3

million barrels of oil will be produced daily• This will put them in the top 10 oil producers in

the world• January 2002 accumulation @ approx $41.90

per share


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CHEVRON(CVX ON THE NYSE)


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AZERBAIJAIN

REAL GDP GROWTH UP 8.28%• Most of GDP comes from• One of the largest investors in the country

is, STATOIL, (STO on the NYSE)• January 2002 accumulation @ approx

$6.36 per share• Up over 600% in profits• STO close to $40 per share as of June 1,

2008


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STATOIL(STO on the NYSE)


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• ANGOLA – 12.27%

• ARMENIA – 10.81%


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TURKMENISTAN

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 17.62%

• Most of GDP consists of

• One of the largest investors in the country is, PETRO CHINA (PTR) on NYSE

• January 2003 2nd position accumulated @ approx. $28.95 per share

• Currently up over 800% trading around $150 per share (June 1st 2008)


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PERTO CHINA (PTR on the NYSE)


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ANGOLA



• One of the largest investors in the country is, EXONMOBIL (XOM on NYSE)

• January 2003 accumulation @ approx. $34.15 per share

• Currently up over 300% trading around $88 (June 1st 2008)


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EXXONMOBIL(XOM on the NYSE)


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ARMENIA

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 10.81%• Most of GDP consists of: Mining, Copper,

Zinc, Gold, Lead• One of the largest investors in the country

is, NEWMONT MINING (NEM on NYSE)• January 2003 accumulation @ approx.

$28.95 per share• Currently up over 70% trading around $47

(June 1st 2008)


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NEWMONT MINING(NEM on the NYSE)


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• EQUATORIAL GUINEA– 11.81%

• ARMENIA – 11.03%


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TURKMENISTAN


• Most of GDP Consists of

• One of the largest investors in the country is, PETRO CHINA (PTR on NYSE)

• January 2003 3rd position accumulated @ approx. $48.43 per share



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PETRO CHINA(PTR on the NYSE)

• Add the chart


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EQUATORILA GUINEA

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 11.81%• Most of GDP consists of oil production• They are the 3RD largest oil producer in Sub Sahara

Africa• One of the largest investors in the country is, DEVON

ENERGY (DVN on NYSE)• January 2003 accumulation @ approx. $28.23 per share• Currently up over 400% trading around $115.94 per

share (June 1st 2008)• The position would be sold after the 4 year rule if they

are not in the top 5 real GDP growths in 2008.


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DEVON ENERGY(DVN on the NYSE)

• ADD CHART


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ARMENIA


• Most of GDP consists of: Mining Copper, Zinc, Gold, and Lead

• One of the largest investors in the country is NEWMONT MINING,(NEM on the NYSE)

• January 2003 @ 2nd position accumulated @ approx. $41.66 per share


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NEWMONT MINING(NEM on the NYSE)

• ADD CHART


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• CHAD – 24.87%

• VENUZUELA – 13.38%


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CHAD

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 24.87%• Most of GDP consists of oil and cotton production • 5th poorest country in the world• The 2 larges investors in the country are CHEVRON

(CVX on the NYSE) & EXONMOBIL (XOM on the NYSE)• They have invested billions in this country• January 2004 2nd position accumulated for CVX @

approx. $43.18 per share• January 2004 2nd position accumulated for XOM@

approx. $40.79 per share


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CVX & XOM

• ADD CHARTS

CVX XOM


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VENEZUELA

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 13.38%• Most of GDP consists of petroleum, iron ore, and

precious metals• One of the largest investors in the country is, ARCELOR

MITTAL (MT) • January 2004 accumulation @ approx. $7.49 per share• Currently up over 1000% trading around $100 per share

(June 1st 2008)• The position would be sold after the 4 year rule if they

are not in the top 5 real GDP growths in 2008.• * 2 securities accumulated from interest in Venezuela


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• AZERBAIJAIN -22.28%

• TURKMENISTAN – 16.73%%

• ANGOLA – 11.89%

• ARMENIA – 10.19%


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AZERBAIJAIN

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 22.28%%• Most of GDP consists of • One of the largest investors in the country

is, STATOIL, (STO ON THE NYSE)• January 2002 accumulation @ approx


2008


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• ADD ON


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TURKMENISTAN


• Most of GDP consists of oil production

• One of the largest investors in the country is, PETRO CHINA (PTR) on the NYSE




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• ADD CHART


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ANGOLA



• One of the largest investors in the country is, EXONMOBIL (XOM) on the NYSE


• Currently up over 300% trading around $88 (June 1st 2008)


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EXONMOBILXOM on the NYSE

• Add chart


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ARMENIA

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 10.19%• Most of GDP consists of: Mining Copper, Zinc,

Gold, and Lead• One of the largest investors in the country is,

NEWMONT MINING,(NEM) on the NYSE• January 2003 Accumulation add on@ approx.

$41.66 per share• Currently up over 70% trading around $47 per

share (June 1st 2008)


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NEWMONT MININGNEM on the NYSE

• Add updated chart


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• ANGOLA – 22.64%




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ANGOLA

• – REAL GDP GROWTH UP 22.64%


• One of the largest investors in the country is, EXONMOBIL (XOM) on the NYSE




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AZERBAIJAIN

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 18.59%• Most of GDP consists of • One of the largest investors in the country

is, STATOIL (STO ON THE NYSE)• January 2002 accumulation @ approx


2008


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TURKMENISTAN



• One of the largest investors in the country is , PETRO CHINA (PTR on the NYSE)




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• ANGOLA – 16.50%




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ANGOLA


• Most GDP consists of

• One of the largest investors in the country is, EXONMOBIL (XOM on the NYSE)




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TURKMENISTAN



• One of the largest investors in the country is, PETRO CHINA (PTR on the NYSE)




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AZERBAIJAN

• REAL GDP GROWTH UP 13.50%• Most of GDP consists of • One of the largest investors in the country

is, STATOIL, (STO on the NYSE)• January 2002 accumulation @ approx.


2008


Copyrite 2009, GCE


thomas guerriero research division copyrite 2009, gce non-proprietary correlation in strategic...

Documents

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