thomas husson the mobile web

26
The Mobile Web: Unleashing Use in a Nascent Market FDIH, Search Marketing Strategies, Scandinavia 2008 February 8 th , 2008 Thomas Husson, Senior Analyst, European Mobile

Upload: daniel-nueued

Post on 15-Jul-2015

1.247 views

Category:

Business


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Thomas Husson the mobile web

The Mobile Web: Unleashing Use in a Nascent Market

FDIH, Search Marketing Strategies, Scandinavia 2008February 8th, 2008

Thomas Husson, Senior Analyst, European Mobile

Page 2: Thomas Husson the mobile web

2 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Jupiter Research: An International Research And Advisory Company Focusing On The Digital Economy

• Est. 1986. Telecoms / Media / Internet Focus

• Headquarters in New York. 60+ analysts in San Francisco, London, Paris, Berlin, Madrid and Scandinavia

• Field regular Consumer surveys / Canvass market leading executives - Build sophisticated market forecasts

• Client unlimited access to reports and analysts

• Consulting and exclusive custom projects

Page 3: Thomas Husson the mobile web

3 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Personal Technology & Access• Broadband

• PC & Console Games

• Personal Technology

• Wi-Fi Mobility

• Wireless

• Mobile Devices *New for 2008

• Digital Home *New for 2008

Marketing & Advertising• Advertising & Branding

• E-Mail Marketing

• Online Behavior & Demographics

• Mobile Media & Marketing *New for 2007

• Search Marketing

• Social Marketing *New for 2007

Media Focus• Music

• News & Information

• Online Media & Programming

• Television & Filmed Entertainment

Industry Focus• Automotive

• Financial Services

• Health

• Retail

• Travel

Web Technologies & Operations• Customer Service & Support

• Payments & Transactions

• Site Technologies & Operations

• Web Globalization *New for 2007

European Focus• Broadband and VoIP

• Commerce

• Content & Programming

• Country Focus

• Digital Home

• Marketing & Advertising

• Market Forecasts

• Mobile

2008 Research Offering

Page 4: Thomas Husson the mobile web

4 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Reports – European Mobile

• European Mobile Forecast (2007-2012) – to be published• Mobile Data Pricing – to be published• Mobile Advertising in Europe• Mobile Social Networking• Impact of the iPhone in Europe• Mobile Search: Finding Opportunities in a Nascent Market• Mobile Youth Consumer Survey: Targeting digital natives and

keeping them loyal

• The future of mobile browsing: leveraging the Internet model

• Consumer-Created Content: Defining opportunities for mobile operators

• Ad-funded mobile services: emergence of a new business model

Page 5: Thomas Husson the mobile web

5 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

AGENDA

• What's the current reality of the mobile service market?

• How are mobile Internet / search, mobile advertising and mobile social networks developing?

• What are the drivers and inhibitors for the uptake of this nascent market? How quickly will it grow ?

Page 6: Thomas Husson the mobile web

6 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Except 3G Early Adopters & Youth, Majority of Mobile Phone Owners Do Not Use Mobile Multimedia Services

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None

Watched Live TV

Used mobile IM

Received and sent e-mails

Listened to full music tracks

Accessed the Internet from my mobile

Shared mobile content with friends

Sent more than 10 SMS / day

Watched a short video

With 3G phones15-24 with mobile phonesWith mobile phones

Question: During the past three months, which of the following activities have you done at least once on your mobile phone?Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/06), n = 3,680 (consumers with mobile phones, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden only)

Percentage of Consumers by Phone Type

Page 7: Thomas Husson the mobile web

7 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Mobile Broadband Will Not Be Mass-Market Before The End of The Decade

Source:Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Forecast 10/06 (Western Europe only)

*categories are not mutually exclusive. 3.5g is a subset of 3G, which is a subset of 2.5G, explaining why total is over 100%. 3G excludes EDGE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2.5G 71% 87% 94% 98% 100% 100% 100%

3G 6% 13% 22% 33% 45% 54% 62%

3.5G 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 15% 26%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2.5G

3.5G

Perc

en

tag

e o

f S

IM C

ard

s b

y

Netw

ork

Gen

era

tio

n

3G

Page 8: Thomas Husson the mobile web

8 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Mobile Social Networking: From Online Players to Pure Mobile Players

Page 9: Thomas Husson the mobile web

9 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Social Networkers Most Likely to Share and Upload Mobile Media

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UploadedMobile Photos

or Video

Shared MobilePhotos or Video

Average User All Networkers Frequent Networkers

Source: JupiterResearch Consumer Survey 4/07 n = 4,446 (UK, FR, DE, NL, DK only)

Question: Considering the following statements, which describe you? (Select all that apply)

Percentage of European Segment

Page 10: Thomas Husson the mobile web

10 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Mobile Operators Are Slowly Moving Away from their Walled-Garden Approach

Source: JupiterResearch (12/06), Western Europe

White-label approach

Branded / Open strategy

• Increased revenues for carriers• More relevant answers• Consumers’distrust

• Drive audience and traffic• Risk of dissatisfaction in the early days• Position of carriers in the value chain

Page 11: Thomas Husson the mobile web

11 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Average

Germany

UK

France

Netherlands

Denmark

Percentage of Segment

Consumers who have searched local informationonline and would be interested in mobile searchConsumers interested in using an Internet searchengine on their mobile phone

Interest in Mobile Search Still Limited, but Higher Among Online Local Search Users

Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (4/07), n = 4,446 (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, and UK)

Question: Considering the following statements, which ones describe you? Please select all that apply. (Answers are shown for wanting to use an Internet search engine such as Google on a mobile phone.)

Page 12: Thomas Husson the mobile web

12 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Forty Percent of European Mobile Population Will Regularly Access Mobile Internet by 2012

29%33%

37% 40%

24%19%

0

50

100

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Number of monthly mobile Internet usersPercentage of users accessing the mobile Internet

Nu

mb

er

of

Mo

nth

ly

Mo

bil

e In

tern

et

Users

Perc

en

tag

e o

f th

e M

ob

ile P

op

ula

tio

n

(in millions)

Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Model, 11/07 (Western Europe)

Page 13: Thomas Husson the mobile web

13 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

UK: Interesting Testbed for Innovative Consumer Internet Pricing in Europe

October 2007

June 2007

May 2007

October 2006

2005

Launch Date

Pay monthly: £7.5 (!11) per month (1GB fair use); prepay: £1 (!1.5) per day (40 MB fair use)

T-Mobile

£7.5 (!11) capped at 200 MB per month; available to prepay and post-pay users; dedicated offering for iPhone users launched on November 9, 2007

£7.5 (!11) capped at 150 MB per month; £1 (!1.5) per day for up to 15 MB and £2 (!3) per MB beyond that

£8 (!12) capped at 30 MB per month; available to prepay and post-pay users

X-Series Silver at £5 (!7.5) per month (1GB fair use); unlimited Skype calls for Skype PC users, unlimited IM to or from Windows Live Messenger or Yahoo! Messenger, Internet browsing; X-Series Gold at £10 (!15) per month (Silver package plus 50 hours of access to home TV with Slingbox and to home PC with Orb)

Description of Pricing

O2

Vodafone

Orange

3

Operator

Source: JupiterResearch (2/08); mobile operators’ reports

Page 14: Thomas Husson the mobile web

14 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Limited Willingness to Pay Will Force Operators and Content Owners to Turn to Ad-Funded Business Models

0% 50% 100%

Nothing - only interested in voice/SMS

Watching live TV or short videos

Using Instant Messaging

Willing to pay for new services

Playing a game

Accessing maps and local information

Receiving personal emails

Accessing Internet

Listening to music

Sharing pictures or videos with friends

Not willing to pay for services, but would accept ads

Interested in services but would not pay

Question: Which of the following services would you be interested in using on your mobile phone in the next 12 months?

Percentage of Mobile Phone OwnersInterested and Willing to Pay for New

Mobile Services

Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07), n = 4,202 (consumers with mobile phones in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and UK only)

Page 15: Thomas Husson the mobile web

15 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Several Business Models Are Likely To Co-Exist in an Evolving Ecosystem

Ad-fundedPay-per Access /

DownloadSubscriptions

New Entrants’impact

New Paymentmethods

Handset Manufacturers

dilemma

Non-cellularnetworks

Free

Internet Convergence

Operators’ role

Page 16: Thomas Husson the mobile web

16 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Create a Sticky Audience First. Monetize Second.

Source: Jupiter Research (10/2007)

HANDSETS&

NETWORKS

CLIENTEXPERIENCEPRICE

BUSINESSMODELS

A Holistic Approach to Build Market Foundations

Page 17: Thomas Husson the mobile web

17 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Typical Consolidation Phase in a New Market

! Fragmented market

! Lack of internal human competencies and technology

! Strategic long term vision that mobile may well be the next advertising battleground

! Blurring of boundaries in the online advertising channel

Page 18: Thomas Husson the mobile web

18 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

10 Mobile Advertising Myths

1. Penetration rate>100%2. ~3,000,000 mobile users3. Mobile Internet > PC Internet Users4. Multimedia messaging is dead5. Triple digit growth6. Mobile TV is about to be mass-market 7. Mobile advertising ~ > 20,000,000,000 $8. Operators’ inventory ~x00,000,000 impressions9. Click Through Rates on mobile >>> Internet10.Mobile 2.0

Page 19: Thomas Husson the mobile web

19 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Advertising on Personal Phones Is A Double-Edged Sword

3%

2%

14% 14%

22%

4%

5%

47%

35% 17%

18%

19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Overall mobilephone owners

Mobile phoneowners, ages 15

to 24

Don't know Strongly disagreeSomewhat disagree NeutralSomewhat agree Strongly agree

Percentage of Segment

Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/06), n = 3,680 (consumers with mobile phones, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Sweden only)

Question: Do you agree with the following statement: I would like to receive promotions and advertising on my phone if they are relevant to me and will help me save money?

Page 20: Thomas Husson the mobile web

20 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLCSource: JupiterResearch Mobile Model, 10/06 (Western Europe); JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Model, 11/07 (Western Europe)

SMS Marketing Is Only Mass-Reach Mobile Marketing Option

SMS active users: 74% (234 million)

Mobile Internet active users:

19% (60 million)

MMS active users: 29% (92 million)

Mobile search active users: less than 4% (14 million)

Simple messaging: 160-character black-and-white text-based SMS messaging

Enhanced messaging (plus content and services): dynamic/interactive/audiovisual content/services/applications, short video clips, sponsored links and keywords

Mobile video/TV active users:

7% (22 million)

Marketing Capabilities

Monthly Audienceat End of 2007

Page 21: Thomas Husson the mobile web

21 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Lack of Strategic Integration and Implementation Complexities Will Stifle Mobile Marketing’s Potential in Short Term

Lack of strategic integration in the

marketing mix

Lack of interoperable

measurement and performance tools

Growing interest of advertisers

Growing inventory and choice of ad

formats

Consumers’uptake of data

services

MobileAdvertisingSpending

Source: JupiterResearch (12/07)

Campaign execution

complexities

Individual, contextual

(location-based), and behavioral

targeting capabilities

Limitedaudience

Page 22: Thomas Husson the mobile web

22 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Advertisers Plan to Use Many Different Tactics Including Banner Ads, Sponsored Links

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Ads on mobile location-based services

In-stream video ads

Content sponsorships or advertorials

Mobile coupons or bar codes

Ad-supported content or services

Sponsored links within mobile search

Branded mobile applications

Banner ads on off-portal mobile Internetpages

Banner ads on mobile portals

Branded mobile content (e.g., logos, games)

MMS video

MMS images

WAP-push marketing

SMS marketing messages

Having used tacticduring past 12 monthsPlanning to use tacticduring next 12 months

Percentage of Mobile Marketing Decision Makers Having Used or Planning to Use Mobile Marketing

Question: Which mobile marketing and advertising tactics have you used during the past 12 months, and which do you plan to use during the next 12 months? Select all that apply.

Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Executive Survey (7/07), n = 50 (mobile marketing decision makers having used or planning to use mobile marketing, Western Europe)

Messaging

Page 23: Thomas Husson the mobile web

23 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

2006 Mobile Advertising Revenues ~240M !in the Advanced Japanese Market*

Source: * Dentsu, ** Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

• 3G =64% penetration rate*• Mobile Internet =87% penetration rate**

Page 24: Thomas Husson the mobile web

24 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Stakeholders Must Implement Measurement and ROI Standards to Boost Market Uptake

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Poor performance

Mobile creative development

Data protection and privacy

Measurement and reporting strategies

Trafficking processes

Mobile landing page production

Trafficking technology

Selection of best inventory

Lack of audience

Coordination with other media

Selection of best tactics

Lack of inventory

High cost of inventory

Measurement technology

Allocation of budget

Percentage of Mobile Marketing Decision Makers Having Used Mobile Marketing

Question: Which of the following problems have you experienced in relation to your mobile marketing efforts? Select all that apply.

Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Executive Survey (7/07), n = 34 (mobile marketing decision makers having used mobile marketing, Western Europe)

Measurement issuesCost/reach issuesOther

Page 25: Thomas Husson the mobile web

25 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC

Key Takeaways

! Online Trends in the maturing web market are expanding in the nascent mobile space

! Barriers will be removed or lessened in the next few years: more affordable data plans, good enough mobile broadband experience, compelling handsets

!However, today mobile multimedia services are only on their way to reach critical mass

! Mobile Advertising is still in its infancy and will remain in an educational / standardization phase in the next 2/3 years

Page 26: Thomas Husson the mobile web

Thank You for you attention

Questions ?

[email protected]