three keys to a radically better society?

Technology, Transhumanism, and TZM

Three keys to a radically better society?

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2


Three keys to a radically better world?


David Wood @dw2

@dw2

“It’s the right thing to do(?)”

Ubiquitous interconnectivity means a crisis in the world will adversely impact everyone

Why think about the whole world?

Isn’t that naïve?

There are many risks of global crisis

@dw2

Measuring the state of the world?

http://www.millennium-project.org/

17 annual State of the future report cards

Input from 4,500 thought leaders selected by 50 Nodes around the world

Founded by United Nations University, 1996

The Millennium Project

30 metrics

17 improving

7 worsening

6 unclear





World Report Card

Where are

We Winning?

http:// www.millennium-project.org/







Where are We Losing?

World Report Card






What is Unclear or not Changing?

World Report Card






@dw2



“The world is improving better than most pessimists know and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”

“People around the world are becoming healthier, wealthier, better educated, more peaceful, increasingly

connected, and living longer. Child mortality rate has dropped 47% since 1990, extreme poverty in the developing world fell from 50% in 1981 to 21% in 2010, primary school completion rates grew from

81% in 1990 to 91% in 2011, only one transborder war occurred in 2013,

nearly 40% of humanity is connected via the Internet, and life expectancy has increased 10 years over the past 20

years to reach 70.5 years today”





@dw2



“The world is improving better than most pessimists know and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”

“Water tables are falling on all continents, glaciers are melting, half the world's topsoil is destroyed,

coral reefs are dying, ocean acidity is increasing, ocean dead zones have doubled every decade since the 1960s,

income gaps are increasingly obscene, youth unemployment has reached dangerous proportions,

traffic jams and air pollution are strangling cities, $1-1.6 billion is paid in bribes, organized crime gets twice

the money per year than all the military budgets combined, intrastate conflicts and refugees are increasing,

and half the world is potentially unstable”





@dw2


15 Global Challenges





@dw2

15 Global Challenges How can… 1. Sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 2. Everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance? 4. Genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight

during unprecedented accelerating change? 6. The global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 7. Ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 8. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? 9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise

enough to address its global challenges? 10. Shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of

weapons of mass destruction? 11. The changing status of women improve the human condition? 12. Transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and

sophisticated global enterprises? 13. Growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 14. Scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 15. Ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

@dw2

2014

2025

1993

Barry Ritkoltz

1993

2013

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/

Barry Ritkoltz







@dw2

http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium

“The next 20 years are going to make this last 20 years just pale”

Kevin Kelly, co-Founder, Wired

“We're just at the beginning of the beginning of all these kind of changes. There's a sense that all the big things have happened, but relatively speaking, nothing big has happened yet. In 20 years from now we'll look back and say, ‘Well, nothing really happened in the last 20 years’ [1994-2014]”





@dw2

http://www.computerworld.com/slideshow/detail/143723#slide2

128MB 128GB



@dw2

Kindle books vs. physical books

www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch

E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon

in less than 3 years

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch













@dw2

Progress by combination

• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion – Cheap digital storage – Low energy screens, pleasant to look at – High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution – Huge catalog of books available to purchase – Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform

+ Innovative business model

Improvements in computers: Performance

Applicability (digitisation)

@dw2

Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers

Source: Jonathan Koomey,

Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review,

9 Apr 2012

10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/

18 months average doubling

In line with “Moore’s Law”














@dw2

www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/

(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965

http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/

@dw2

Impact of Moore’s Law to 2025

2014

2025

18 months

18 months

18 months

18 months

18 months

18 months

18 months

X 2

X 2 = 4

X 2 = 8

X 2 = 16

X 2 = 32

X 2 = 64

X 2 = 128 5 times faster

5 times cheaper

5 times smaller

@dw2

Changes in the last 11 years

2003

2014 5 times faster

5 times cheaper

5 times smaller

Smartphones

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church

http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328

Professor George Church

Harvard









Professor George Church

Harvard

Positive

feedback

cycle







@dw2

20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025?

Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets

Brain scanning: consciousness &

creativity decoded

Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware

stimulation, e.g. tDCS)

Cryptocurrencies: decentralised

consensus system

Nanomaterials with super-strength &

resilience

3D fabrication, with Atomically Precise

Manufacturing

Ubiquitous solar energy: major

reduction of oil usage

Wearable computers, Augmented Reality,

remote virtual avatars

Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies,

synthetic organs

Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed

Automated robot workers: nurses,

soldiers…

Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport

Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions

Virtual companions more compelling than

real ones

Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon

removal

Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law

Rational management of decisions

and resources

Synthetic meat: abolition of animal

suffering

Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA,

new life forms

Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities,

vaccinations…

@dw2

“Abundance 360 and Exponential Technologies (2014)”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCj7PlWRFf4

Channel: Peter Diamandis

http://abundance360summit.com/

http://singularityu.org/executive-program









@dw2

Predicting the impact of technology

“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”

“It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture”

“Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years”

July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror Thomas Alva Edison

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/ http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/



http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

@dw2

Drawbacks to relying on technology 1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected

E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering

2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better

3. Technology is a two-edged sword Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD

4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread” Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”) Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)

@dw2

Purchased by Facebook in April 2012

With 13 employees And 100 million registered users

For approx $1 billion in cash and stock

Launched in October 2010 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak

1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees

2,000x productivity?!

@dw2

Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014

With 55 employees And 420 million active users

For approx $19 billion in cash & stock

Launched in March 2009 Sociable

Usable

Winner takes a larger reward

@dw2

Productivity vs. median income

http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/









@dw2

Technological unemployment

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/







@dw2

Technological unemployment

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/

“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much

better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”

– Vinod Khosla

“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”































@dw2

Drawbacks to relying on technology 1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected

E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering

2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better

3. Technology is a two-edged sword Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD

4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread” Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”) Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)

5. Solutions involve value-chain cooperation, which may not occur Vested interests among existing marketplace winners, legislators E.g. struggles of electric car producers; patient-driven healthcare; oil

@dw2

2014

2025

@dw2

Changing mindsets

http://www.heaven-speaks.com/bayside_test_tube_babies.html

“It is an abomination in the eyes of God for man in his arrogance and pride to seek to create the living being. What he is creating is a soulless monster, a being of destruction for all that it will meet. I say 'it', for it is not truly a human being but a 'thing'!”

– Our Lady, July 25, 1978

Opposition from politicians too

And from fellow scientists

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19537-test-tube-baby-pioneer-wins-medicine-nobel.html

Request for funding was denied by the UK's Medical Research Council





















@dw2

Changing mindsets (2) • The proper role of business and finance • The idea that humans are inherently selfish, lazy,

irredeemably competitive, and need the pressures of a “tough love” market economy to thrive – A thriving de-centralised “collaborative commons” exists

alongside the market economy: Wikipedia, open-source software, voluntary sector, community self-help…

• The idea that businesses are inherently selfish, aggrandising, short-term focused – “Conscious capitalism” shows how businesses can be strong

forces for benefit of whole society, with multiple stakeholders – In at least some cases

Employees

Customers

Suppliers

Community

Investors

Environment

@dw2

Conscious capitalism?

http://www.consciouscapitalism.org/

http://www.lyndagratton.com/





@dw2

“The business of business is business”

“There is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits”

– Milton Friedman, 1970

http://www.colorado.edu/studentgroups/libertarians/issues/friedman-soc-resp-business.html http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/photocredit/achievers/fri0-006

“The most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century…possibly of all of it” – http://www.economist.com/node/8313925

http://www.colorado.edu/studentgroups/libertarians/issues/friedman-soc-resp-business.html








http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/photocredit/achievers/fri0-006




http://www.economist.com/node/8313925

http://www.economist.com/node/8313925

@dw2

“The dumbest idea in the world” “Shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world”

– Jack Welch, 2009 (former CEO, GE)

http://listphobia.com/2011/12/06/top-10-business-leaders-of-the-world/

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090316_630496.htm

“Any fool can just deliver in the short term by squeezing, squeezing, squeezing… you have to do both [short-term and long-term]… You'll see everyone win… “Employees will benefit from job security and better rewards. Customers will benefit from better products or services. Communities will benefit because successful companies and their employees give back. And obviously, shareholders will benefit because they can count on companies who deliver on both their short-term commitments and long-term vision.”

















@dw2

The need for inclusivity Capitalism is at risk of destroying itself unless bankers realise they have an obligation to create a fairer society, the Bank of England governor has warned...

Speaking at a City conference, the Bank’s governor warned that there was a growing sense that the basic social contract at the heart of capitalism was breaking down amid rising inequality.

“We simply cannot take the capitalist system, which produces such plenty and so many solutions, for granted. Prosperity requires not just investment in economic capital, but investment in social capital.”

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/27/capitalism-critique-bank-of-england-carney













@dw2

The purpose of business Purpose

At [company] we are committed to improving the quality of life of the communities we serve. We do this by striving for leadership and global competitiveness in the business sectors in which we operate.

Our practice of returning to society what we earn evokes trust among consumers, employees, shareholders and the community. We are committed to protecting this heritage of leadership with trust through the manner in which we conduct our business.

http://www.tata.com/aboutus/articlesinside/Values-and-purpose

Founded 1868

Philanthropic initiatives since 1892

Introduced 8 hour working day in 1912

Indian Institute of Science set up in Bangalore, 1911

Trusts receive 66% of group profits

Isn’t that naïve?







@dw2

2014

2025

@dw2

Obstacles to collaboration 1. Overwhelming differences in dominant values

E.g. if entrenched opposition to female education / “Western values”

2. Blindness to what is good for us Lack of awareness; cognitive biases

3. Distortions by the environment / system we live within

Advertising raises our interests in things not actually very good for us

“Keeping up with the Joneses”

News stories hostile to “the enemy”

4. Lack of compelling shared positive vision

Especially with failure of religions / philosophies

Education Peer Reviews

Transhumanism

New train of thought

TZM

@dw2

• Looking for fundamental causes and solutions – unwilling to accept surface explanations

• Forceful challenges to prevailing assumptions about markets, business and finance

• Engaging, thought-provoking videos (and other comms)

Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’

Pluses Questions

@dw2

Zeitgeist Day 2013, Main Event, LA, CA, USA - TZMOfficialChannel

@dw2

• Looking for fundamental causes and solutions – unwilling to accept surface explanations

• Forceful challenges to prevailing assumptions about markets, business and finance

• Engaging, thought-provoking videos (and other comms)

• Huge bottom-up enthusiasm

• Open to collaboration

• Needs a transition plan – a roadmap to the future

• Money is likely to continue to exist for the foreseeable future

• Rational resource management, for all goods, is some way off into the future

• Over-demonising business and finance: many TZM critiques miss the mark

• Pursuit of the “great” may miss opportunities for “good” incremental steps

Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’

Pluses Questions

@dw2

Vision: Freedom to fulfil potential “Human beings should be free…”

Free from limitations,

Free from death,

Free from gravity,

Free from biology.

https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/346391735003389953

Dmitry Itskov, closing remarks

https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/346391735003389953

@dw2

The biggest killers?

Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group

http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ

Stroke

Cancer

Heart disease

Diabetes

Pulmonary disease

HIV/AIDS

Parkinson’s

Menopause

Arthritis

Alzheimer’s

Asthma

Kidney disease

AGING



@dw2

Stroke

Cancer

Heart disease

Diabetes

Pulmonary disease

HIV/AIDS

Parkinson’s

Menopause

Arthritis Alzheimer’s

Asthma

Kidney disease

AGING

Proteostasis

Adaptation to stress

Regeneration from stem cells

Inflammation

Macromolecular damage

Metabolism

Epigenetics and regulatory RNA

The biggest killer?

Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group




@dw2

Changing mindsets (3) • Aging is natural, inevitable, and not to be challenged

• “Natural” is always good, synthetic is always bad

• You can’t do better than God

• You can’t do better than natural selection

• It’s inevitable than biological organisms grow old & die

• Society depends upon people growing old & dying

• A world with super-longevity, super-intelligence, and super-happiness would be a kind of hell

• Such a world is at least 100 years into the future

@dw2

“The six epochs of evolution”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNkW353QkxU

Channel: Jason Silva

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNkW353QkxU

@dw2

Technology as main driver for change

Technology acceleration

Engineering solutions

Scientific enquiry

Critical thinking

Global education

Positive feedback networks

Transhumanism

TZM, Social

Futurism Positive

feedback

cycle

@dw2

Two ways to focus improvements

Quality of life

TZM, Social futurism

Quality of life

Quality of life

TODAY

Number of people

Transhumanism

@dw2

Why transhumanism?

Quality of life

“Because it’s there”

“Next step in global evolution”

“Be the best that you can be”

By being smarter, we can see more easily how to ensure everyone can benefit

We will have better tools than existing market economics, tribal politics, medieval philosophies…


Quality of life

Transhumanism

@dw2

Why TZM / Social futurism?

Quality of life

If we fail to address the growing social pains of inequality and decline of opportunity…

If we fail to avert potential imminent societal collapses… (finance / environment / energy…)

The societal foundations for transhumanism may disappear We need to pursue both


Quality of life

Transhumanism

@dw2

Setting the scene David Wood, Mark Stevenson, Rohit Talwar Re-designing medicine and healthcare Maneesh Juneja, Sonia Contera, Peter Morgan / Aubrey de Grey Re-designing Artificial Intelligence Calum Chace, Martin Dinov & Elias Rut Re-designing society Freemavens / Simon Bransfield-Garth, Anders Sandberg, M Amon Twyman, Ben McLeish Re-designing humanity David Pearce, Zoltan Istvan, Natasha Vita-More, David Levy, Andrew Vladimirov What’s next? Michael Nuschke, Alez Zhavoronkov, Riva-Melissa Tez, Victor Anderson, Jerome Glenn


Three keys to a radically better world?


David Wood @dw2