Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Emission Inventory Comparison2008 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2020

University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)

June 19, 2014

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3SAQS Inventory Comparison Overview• Objective: Compare the base and future year emission inventories for

CO, UT, and WY to support the QA of the data and to inform the air quality evaluation

• Display the differences (what), limited analysis for why• Why two different future years?• Inventories:

Simulation Non-O&G O&G Natural

3SAQS Base 2008 NEI2007v5NEI2008v2

WRAP Phase III WestJumpAQMS 2008

3SAQS 2020 (2008-based)

NEI2007v5 3SAQS Phase I WestJumpAQMS 2008

3SAQS Base 2011 NEI2011v6 3SAQS Phase I 3SAQS 2011

3SAQS 2018 (2011-based)

NEI2011v6 3SAQS Phase I 3SAQS 2011

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3SAQS Inventory Comparison Overview• Compare the inventories across 15 sectors:

– Aircraft/Locomotive/Marine (ALM)

– Nonroad Mobile– Onroad Mobile– EGU Point– nonEGU Point– Nonpoint– Residential Wood

Combustion (RWC)

– Livestock ammonia– Fertilizer Ammonia– Area Oil & Gas– Point Oil & Gas– Fire– Fugitive Dust– Windblown Dust– Biogenic

Annual NOx Emissions by State and Inventory

Annual VOC Emissions by State and Inventory

Annual CH4 Emissions by State and Inventory

Annual SO2 Emissions by State and Inventory

Annual NH3 Emissions by State and Inventory

Annual PM2.5 Emissions by State and Inventory

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State Base Year Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

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State Base Year Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

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State Base Year Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

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State Base->Future Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

Very similar trends from base to future year, despite different starting and ending years

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State Base->Future Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

Very similar trends from base to future year, despite different starting and ending years

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State Base->Future Differences(O&G methane excluded from chart)

Notable differences in the trends for non-EGU point and area O&G

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3SAQS Inventory Comparison Significant Trends

2008 2011Sector/Poll CO UT WY

Oil and Gas/VOC + + -

Oil and Gas/CH4 ++ ++ ++

Onroad/All - - -

Windblown Dust -- -- --

Nonpoint/VOC -

NEGU Point/NOx + - +

Biogenic/VOC + + +

2008 2020Sector/Poll CO UT WY

Oil and Gas/VOC + + +

Oil and Gas/CH4 ++ ++ ++

Oil and Gas/NOx -

Onroad/All - - -

EGU Point/SO2 - - --

EGU Point/PM10 -

ALM/NOx -

2011 2018ESector/Poll CO UT WY

Oil and Gas/VOC + + +

Oil and Gas/CH4 + + +

Onroad/All - - -

EGU Point/SO2 - - --

EGU Point/PM10 -

ALM/NOx -

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Colorado Oil and Gas Methane

2008 2011• Over 13 Mtons/year of CH4 in 2011 inventory from fixed roof tank condensates

• 483,000 tons/year of CH4 from all sources in 2008 inventory• ~1.4 x more VOC in 2011, ~30x more CH4 in 2011• Driven by increase in fixed roof tank emissions in the Piceance Basin (application of the

ROG2TOG multiplier for condensates = 449 using profile ID SSJCB)