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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
Coal Mining: Scaling down coal production targets
(OVERWEIGHT) In response to the soft global coal demand from Covid-19 pandemic, coalminers have scaled down their coal production targets. Larger coal producers in Indonesia have cut coal production targets for 2020 by 4 – 18% from initial guidance. While the near-term coal prices will remain soft, we believe global coal prices will recover in 4Q20 with the Northern hemisphere entering the winter season and more supply cuts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. To see the full version of this report, please click here
United Tractors: Slight recovery in Komatsu volume (UNTR
IJ IDR. 23,250 BUY TP IDR 29,000) In July 2020, United Tractors (UNTR) reported better Komatsu sales volume of 85 units (+11.8% mom) and coal sales (+20.6% mom), but lower coal production (-4% mom) and gold production (-18.8% mom). Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, UNTR expects 16% yoy lower coal production of 110mn tons for 2020 and 27 – 38% yoy lower gold production. We believe the solid gold price will help the company to alleviate pressure on earnings from weak coal prices. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR29,000 (DCF valuation). To see the full version of this report, please click here
HM Sampoerna: Playing the waiting game (HMSP.IJ IDR. 1,700 SELL TP IDR.1,430) Soft purchasing power coupled with the inability to raise selling prices to pass on higher excise has hit the earnings of HMSP this year. The expected enforcement of HJE in 4Q20 and further excise simplification in 2021 may sustain share price performance. However, the increasing preference toward high-tar cigarette may create headwinds for HMSP. Maintain SELL. To see the full version of this report, please click here
Jasa Marga: Almost back to the normal level (JSMR.IJ IDR. 3,940 BUY TP IDR.5,500) At the pubex conducted by IDX, JSMR said that traffic had now reached 90% of the normal level. Since the loosening of social distancing restrictions (PSBB) the daily toll traffic has gradually improved. JSMR will focus on the projects in its pipeline and it has no interest in acquiring new toll roads located outside Java. JSMR will issue bonds with targeted proceeds of IDR2.0tn. JSMR is rated AA- by Pefindo. As of Jun20 the DER and ICR stood at 2.41x and 1.58x, respectively. Maintain BUY. To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS
MACROECONOMY ▪ Government to distribute salary subsidies today
▪ Government prepares regulation for vaccine procurements CORPORATE
▪ Kalbe Farma will invest up to IDR1tn for Covid-19 vaccine development
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5,340 0.0 (15.2) 578
Thailand 1,323 0.5 (16.3) 1,563
Philippines 5,931 (0.4) (24.1) 99
Malaysia 1,550 (0.3) (2.5) 1,830
Singapore 2,542 (0.7) (21.1) 844
Regional
China 3,330 (1.3) 9.2 85,233
Hong Kong 25,492 0.0 (9.6) 17,175
Japan 23,218 (0.3) (1.9) 2,283
Korea 2,369 (0.0) 7.8 12,175
Taiwan 12,833 0.6 7.0 5,984
India 39,074 0.6 (5.3) 515
Nasdaq 11,665 1.7 30.0 243,556
Dow Jones 28,332 0.3 (0.7) 14,200
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318
Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454
Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87
Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338
Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908
Regional
China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889
Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093
Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278
Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790
Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534
India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495
Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797
Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,678 0.6 (1.0) (5.9)
BI7DRRR % 4.00 - - (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 6.79 0.1 (0.1) (0.3)
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9
BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 50 (0.1) (4.4) (26.6)
Gold US$/toz 1,948 (0.3) 0.3 28.4
Nickel US$/mt.ton 15,124 1.2 11.1 8.4
Tin US$/mt.ton 17,565 1.1 (0.7) 2.3
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 130 0.3 2.8 (10.1)
Corn US$/mt.ton 43 (0.0) 4.3 (29.0)
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 46 0.1 5.3 (30.8)
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 2,729 (1.0) (2.7) (9.8)
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 135 1.4 13.2 (7.0)
Rubber USd/kg 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Pulp US$/tonne 360 (0.8) 2.6 0.1
Coffee US$/60kgbag 147 0.2 1.1 (6.4)
Sugar US$/MT 32 (0.1) 8.8 (6.6)
Wheat US$/ton 921 0.1 1.6 (2.4)
Soy Oil US$/lb 130 0.3 2.8 (10.1)
SoyBean US$/by 43 (0.0) 4.3 (29.0)
Source: Bloomberg
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0)
Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2
Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6
Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7
Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8
Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6
Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5
Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6
Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1)
Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9
Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)
Source: Bloomberg
Equity Research Coal Mining
See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com
Thursday, 27 August 2020
Coal Mining OVERWEIGHT
Maintain Scaling down coal production targets
In response to the soft global coal demand from Covid-19 pandemic, coalminers have scaled down their coal production targets. Larger coal producers in Indonesia have cut coal production targets for 2020 by 4 – 18% from initial guidance. While the near-term coal prices will remain soft, we believe global coal prices will recover in 4Q20 with the Northern hemisphere entering the winter season and more supply cuts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Coal demand to remain soft. Global coal prices have remained soft due to anemic demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Major importers (ex-China) reported lower coal imports such as: a) India (-35.8% yoy) to 57mn tons during April – July 2020 due to high stockpiles at pits, plants and ports, b) Japan (-3.6% yoy) to 62mn tons in 7M20 caused by weak power demand and low LNG prices. China’s coal imports jumped 6.8% yoy to 200mn tons in 7M20. With China continuing its policy to curb thermal coal and solid coal imports, we expect China to import less coal in 2H20 despite a decoupling between China’s domestic coal price and the seaborne market. Supply cut by Indonesia in response to soft coal demand. Several large coal miners in Indonesia have started to scale down their coal production targets for 2020 in response to soft global coal demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Under our coverage, Bukit Asam (PTBA) recently cut its coal production target to 25mn tons from initially 30.3mn tons and Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) revised down its coal production target to 52 – 54mn tons from initial guidance of 54 – 58mn tons. Other coal miners, such as Bumi Resources’ Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and Arutmin, scaled down their coal production targets to 85 – 90mn tons from previous guidance of 83 – 88mn tons. Indonesia’s coal mining contractors lowered coal production targets. Pamapersada Nusantara (PAMA), the subsidiary of United Tractors (UNTR IJ.BUY.TP: IDR29,000) in coal mining contracting and the largest coal mining contractor in Indonesia cut its coal production target to 110mn tons (from previously 130mn tons) with OB removal of 810mn bcm (from previously around 900mn bcm). Hence, we can infer that coal miners have asked the contractors to scale down the production given weak demand. Global coalminers have also started to cut production. The global coal player, Glencore has cut coal production target by 13.3 – 14.0% from initial guidance due to Covid-19 and to maintain profitability. Also, Coal India Limited (CIL), the largest coal producer in India has reduced its coal production target to 650 – 660mn tons for the fiscal year ending 2021 from 710mn tons previously due to the disruption from Covid-19. Meanwhile, the Russian Energy Minister expects a further drop in coal exports by 10 – 22% yoy for 2020. Russia - the world’s third-largest coal exporter - reported 4.8% yoy lower exports of 105mn tons in 7M20 with coal production down by 8.9% yoy at 227mn tons. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. While the near-term outlook for coal prices remains muted, any global coal demand recovery amid supply cuts will push up coal prices from the current level. In addition, we expect the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere in 4Q20 and global economic recovery in 2021 post Covid-19 to lift up coal prices from their currently low level of USD50/ton. Our top pick is Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ.BUY.TP:IDR3,200) given its continued diversification. The key risks are uncertainty in China’s coal imports policy and a prolonged Covid-19 pandemic.
PTBA relative to JCI Index
xxxx
ADRO relative to JCI Index
xxxx Source : Bloomberg
x Stefanus Darmagiri
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530
Target Price
Market Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2021F
Bukit Asam PTBA IJ BUY 3,200 23,835 6.0 5.9 1.2 1.2 20.6 Adaro Energy ADRO IJ BUY 1,300 35,504 6.7 7.2 0.6 0.6 9.1 Indo Tambangraya ITMG IJ BUY 11,000 9,491 10.9 8.9 0.8 0.8 8.9 Harum Energy HRUM IJ HOLD 1,350 4,285 16.8 18.0 1.2 1.2 5.5
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Thursday,27 August 2020
HM Sampoerna(HMSP IJ) SELL
Maintain Playing the waiting game
Soft purchasing power coupled with the inability to raise selling prices to pass on higher excise has hit the earnings of HMSP this year. The expected enforcement of HJE in 4Q20 and further excise simplification in 2021 may sustain share price performance. However, the increasing preference toward high-tar cigarette may create headwinds for HMSP. Maintain SELL. Lower volume and ASP growth; we revise down our 2020 earnings estimate by 18%. We expect HMSP’s 2020 sales volume to decline by 16.6% (1H20: -18.2% yoy) with the expectation that the pick-up in economic activities in July 2020 will provide further support for cigarette sales. Delays in the implementation of the 2020 minimum retail selling prices may prevent HMSP from raising prices. We estimate FY20 top line growth of -10% yoy on the back of negative volume growth and +7.8% yoy blended revenues/stick growth. This leads to a lower gross margin of 21.8% in 2020. Amid the pressure on volume, we foresee further efficiencies in opex, and trim our opex/revenues estimate to 8.5%. Taking into account this year’s tax cuts, we forecast net profits of IDR10.6tn, or -23% yoy. We revise down our FY20 earnings estimate by 18%. Facing headwinds until greater certainty emerges on the 2021 excise regulation. The management has admitted that the daily consumption of cigarettes has fallen during the pandemic due to soft purchasing power. HMSP’s products are premium priced and, as such, further downtrading toward affordable products has hit sales volume. Data from the management shows that the cigarette volume of producers below tier 1 reached 25% of the total market share in 2Q20 vs. only 20% in the same period last year. The positive catalyst for HMSP (and also GGRM) will come from the issuance of the 2021 excise tax regulation that includes the simplification of the excise tax structure as it creates a more level playing field whilst seeking to ensure that the government achieves its revenues target. Maintain Sell. At the current share price, HMSP is trading at a rich valuation of 19x FY21 PE. In our view, the company’s efforts to offer new products for the lower segment market will support volume ahead. Margins may be negatively impacted, however. The expected enforcement of HJE in 4Q20 and further excise simplification in 2021 iya, may sustain share price performance. As we roll over our valuation to 2021, based on the FY21 PE of parent company of 15x, our new TP is IDR1,430. We maintain our Sell recommendation on HMSP. using the -1SD average 10-y PE of 20.1x, our new TP is set at IDR1,800. With limited upside, we upgrade our call to HOLD.
Last price (IDR) 1,700
Target Price (IDR) 1,430
Upside/Downside -15.9%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 1,640
Stock Statistics
Sector CIGARETTE
Bloomberg Ticker HMSP IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 116,318
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 197,741/13,472
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 79.2/5.4
Major shareholders (%)
PHILIP MORRIS INDONESIA 92.5
Estimated free float 7.5
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2020F 2021F 2022F
Danareksa 90.9 89.6 95.0
Consensus 94.0 104.5 113.8
Danareksa/Cons (3.3) (14.3) (16.5)
HMSP relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Natalia Sutanto
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3508
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue (IDRbn) 106,742 106,055 95,404 97,612 102,917 EBITDA (IDRbn) 17,835 18,452 13,909 13,877 14,711 EBITDA Growth (%) 5.1 3.5 (24.6) (0.2) 6.0 Net profit (IDRbn) 13,538 13,722 10,573 10,424 11,055 EPS (IDR) 116.4 118.0 90.9 89.6 95.0 EPS growth (%) 6.8 1.4 (22.9) (1.4) 6.1 BVPS (IDR) 304.0 306.7 277.8 277.9 284.7 DPS (IDR) 107.3 117.2 119.8 89.5 88.3 PER (x) 14.6 14.5 18.8 19.0 17.9 PBV (x) 5.6 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.0 Dividend yield (%) 6.3 6.9 7.0 5.3 5.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 9.7 13.1 13.1 12.3
Source : HMSP, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Thursday, 27 August 2020
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) BUY
Maintain Slight recovery in Komatsu volume
In July 2020, United Tractors (UNTR) reported better Komatsu sales volume of 85 units (+11.8% mom) and coal sales (+20.6% mom), but lower coal production (-4% mom) and gold production (-18.8% mom). Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, UNTR expects 16% yoy lower coal production of 110mn tons for 2020 and 27 – 38% yoy lower gold production. We believe the solid gold price will help the company to alleviate pressure on earnings from weak coal prices. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR29,000 (DCF valuation). July 2020: mixed operational numbers with higher Komatsu volume. UNTR reported mixed operational volume in July 2020 with Komatsu sales of 85 units (+11.8% mom, but -58.5% yoy) and 20.6% mom higher coal sales volume of 0.7mn tons. Nonetheless, coal production under PAMA declined slightly by 4% mom with gold production also down by 18.8% mom due to the low utilization rate and lower grade. In 7M20, Komatsu volume declined by 55.8% yoy to 938 units, while coal production declined by 11.0% yoy to 65.2mn tons. The Komatsu volume and coal production for 7M20 are within expectations at 63% and 60% of our new estimates, respectively. Downward revision on the coal and gold production 2020 targets. The Covid-19 pandemic caused several coal miners to lower their coal production targets for 2020. Hence, PAMA targets 16.2% yoy lower coal production of 110mn tons with OB removal of 810mn bcm (-18.2% yoy). Previously, UNTR targeted flattish coal production of 131mn tons. Meanwhile, gold production is also revised to 256k – 300k oz (-26.8 – 37.8% yoy) from initial guidance of 360k oz as the pandemic has lowered the utilization at the mining areas since only 50% of the employees are working. Nonetheless, the management indicated that several initiatives had been adopted to improve utilization gradually with the expectation that utilization will be back to normal by Oct/Nov 2020. Hence, while we expect low gold production in 3Q20, we expect the solid gold price to help minimize pressure on the company’s financial performance. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR29,000 (DCF valuation; WACC of 12.1% and LT growth of 3%) as we use a higher gold price assumption for 2020/2021 and lower assumptions under the coal mining business. Solid gold prices will help the company to alleviate pressure on earnings from the coal business due to weak coal prices. In addition, the commencement of operations at its power plant at Tanjung Jati at end-2021 will help the company to enhance earnings beyond coal. Our new TP implies 10.6x 2021F PE.
Last price (IDR) 23,250
Target Price (IDR) 29,000
Upside/Downside +24.7%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 26,000
Stock Statistics
Sector Heavy Equipment
Bloomberg Ticker UNTR IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 3,730
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 86,726/5,940
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 76.5/5.2
Major shareholders (%)
Astra International 59.5
Estimated free float 40.4
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2020F 2021F 2022F
Danareksa 2,039 2,739 2,937
Consensus 2,135 2,593 2,845
Danareksa/Cons (4.5) 5.6 3.2
UNTR relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Stefanus Darmagiri
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue (IDRbn) 84,625 84,430 65,610 74,428 77,831 EBITDA (IDRbn) 23,296 22,537 15,928 19,696 20,880 EBITDA Growth (%) 68.4 (3.3) (29.3) 23.7 6.0 Net profit (IDRbn) 11,126 11,312 7,606 10,215 10,957 EPS (IDR) 2,982.6 3,032.6 2,039.2 2,738.5 2,937.3 EPS growth (%) 50.3 1.7 -32.8 34.3 7.3 BVPS (IDR) 14,417.5 15,605.9 16,526.3 18,261.5 19,897.5 DPS (IDR) 976.0 1,228.1 1,233.6 1,009.9 1,258.6 PER (x) 7.8 7.7 11.4 8.5 7.9 PBV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Dividend yield (%) 4.2 5.3 5.3 4.3 5.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 3.9 5.0 3.8 3.4
Source : UNTR, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Report
Thursday,27 August 2020
Jasa Marga(JSMR IJ) BUY
Maintain Almost back to the normal level
At the pubex conducted by IDX, JSMR said that traffic had now reached 90% of the normal level. Since the loosening of social distancing restrictions (PSBB) the daily toll traffic has gradually improved. JSMR will focus on the projects in its pipeline and it has no interest in acquiring new toll roads located outside Java. JSMR will issue bonds with targeted proceeds of IDR2.0tn. JSMR is rated AA- by Pefindo. As of Jun20 the DER and ICR stood at 2.41x and 1.58x, respectively. Maintain BUY.
Traffic reached 90% of the normal level. JSMR’s current traffic has reached 90% of the normal level. The lowest traffic was in Apr-May20 due to the implementation of PSBB (large-scale social distancing) that caused daily toll revenues to drop by more than 50%. Since the loosening of PSBB in Jun20, traffic has gradually improved. It was only 20% less in Jul20, and it is 10% lower now. Traffic is not yet normal as most students are still studying from home and many people still avoid visiting malls at the weekend.
The massive development era has passed. In the past 3 years JSMR has acquired 20 new toll roads with a total length surpassing 500km of which 18 of them have already started to operate (partially or fully operated). In the future, JSMR will only acquire 1-2 new toll roads every year. This is to maintain positive cash flow and leverage. Currently, JSMR owns 33 concessions of which 13 are under JSMR and 20 at the subsidiary level. There are 25 toll roads that are fully operated, 3 toll roads partially operated, and 5 toll roads under the land clearing and construction stage. However, the management stated that it now has no interest in acquiring new toll roads outside Java. JSMR’s DER stands at 2.41x with an ICR of 1.58x as of Jun20. This is still below the creditors’ requirement at a maximum 5.0x for DER and no less than 1.25x for ICR.
In the process of issuing bonds. JSMR will issue bonds with targeted proceeds of IDR2.0tn. JSMR is rated AA- by Pefindo (as of 19 Aug20). There are 4 series to be offered, namely: 1) A Series (3 years): coupon 7.25% to 8.50% p.a., 2) B Series (5 years): coupon 7.50% to 8.75% p.a., 3) C Series (7 years): coupon 8.0% to 9.0% p.a., and 4) D Series (10 years): coupon 8.25% to 9.25% p.a. The bonds are targeted to be issued in early Sep20. The proceeds will be used for debt refinancing. JSMR has IDR5.2tn of upcoming loans maturing in total in the near future. They consist of: 1) IDR4.0tn of Komodo Bonds which will mature on 11 Dec20, 2) IDR1.0tn nominal of Jasa Marga XIV bonds issued in 2010 which will mature on 10 Oct20, and 3) IDR200bn of loans at the subsidiary level. Besides that, JSMR still has a IDR4.5tn bank loans facility. As such, the management is optimistic the company has sufficient funds to meet all requirements.
Maintain BUY. We maintain our forecast and BUY recommendation on JSMR. We expect FY20 earnings of IDR1.2tn, implying negative growth of -43.4%yoy while the FY21 earnings are expected to grow by +53.4%yoy to IDR1.9tn.
Last price (IDR) 3,940
Target Price (IDR) 5,500
Upside/Downside +39.6%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 5,500
Stock Statistics
Sector Toll Road
Bloomberg Ticker JSMR IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 7,258
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 28,596/1,948
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 50.0/3.4
Major shareholders (%)
Government 70.0
Public 30.0
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2020F 2021F 2022F
Danareksa 172.1 264.1 276.1
Consensus 135.5 226.9 278.3
Danareksa/Cons 27.1 16.4 (0.8)
JSMR relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Maria Renata
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3513
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue (IDRbn) 9,784 10,984 11,020 13,172 14,576 EBITDA (IDRbn) 6,037 6,959 7,041 7,975 8,830 EBITDA Growth (%) 21.2 15.3 1.2 13.3 10.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,203 2,207 1,249 1,917 2,004 EPS (IDR) 303.5 304.1 172.1 264.1 276.1 EPS growth (%) 0.1 0.2 (43.4) 53.4 4.5 BVPS (IDR) 2,329.7 2,574.1 2,733.3 2,988.8 3,251.6 DPS (IDR) 60.6 45.5 15.2 8.6 13.2 PER (x) 13.2 13.2 23.3 15.2 14.5 PBV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 9.7 10.9 10.8 10.3
Source : JSMR, Danareksa Estimates
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MACROECONOMY Government to distribute salary subsidies today
After being postponed some days ago, the Ministry of Manpower will give the salary subsidies of IDR600k/worker
today for those workers having below IDR 5 million of monthly salary. The government targets to distribute 2.5 million beneficiaries in every week. The subsidies will be given until December, as such the total subsidies that will
be received is IDR 2.4 million/worker. (Kontan)
Government prepares regulation for vaccine procurements
The Coordinating Ministrer of Economics stated that the govt will enact the President Regulation (Perpres) to regulate the covid-19 vaccines procurement. Previously the govt has secured 20-30 million vaccines for 2020 from Sinovac,
and it will be extended in 2021. In 1Q21, the govt is ready for 80-130 million of vaccines, 2Q21 until 4Q21 will reach 210 million vaccines. Hence the total vaccines in 2021 will reach 340 million doses. (Kontan)
CORPORATE Kalbe Farma will invest up to IDR1tn for Covid-19 vaccine development
KLBF prepares 3 scenarios to produce the Covid-19 vaccine through the joint development with Genexine (South Korea).
Below are several scenarios: 1. Produce in small scale ranging from 1milion to 3 milion doses with minimum investment for the fill and
finish process
2. Medium scale up to 10 million doses 3. Large scale up to 25 million doses
Total investment is estimated around IDR500bn to IDR1tn to import machines. In Indonesia, it is expected to commence the phase 2 clinical trial in October or November 2020. The government has provided incentives of super
tax deduction up to 200-300% for the companies with vocational and research development in Government
Regulation No 45/19. However, it requires further guidance for the implementation. The company stated that the government needs to provide incentives for the company that work to develop the Covid-19 vaccine. This vaccine
will be the first vaccine development for KLBF. Going forward, KLBF plans to further develop herbal products with locally source raw materials. (Investor Daily)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
Danareksa Universe 3,656,004 175,139 219,084 143 180 -23.1% 25.1% 20.9 16.7 11.0 10.2 2.2 2.0 10.8 12.7
Auto 216,587 16,177 17,551 325 353 -25.5% 8.5% 13.4 12.3 6.9 6.5 1.4 1.3 10.6 10.7
Astra International BUY 5,350 6,700 216,587 16,177 17,551 400 434 525 546 -25.5% 8.5% 13.4 12.3 6.9 6.5 1.4 1.3 10.6 10.7
Banks 1,252,253 46,383 75,656 353 576 -39.8% 63.1% 27.0 16.6 2.3 2.1 8.3 13.1
BCA HOLD 31,700 33,000 781,564 21,520 28,722 873 1,165 873 1,165 -24.7% 33.5% 36.3 27.2 N/A N/A 4.3 4.0 12.1 15.2
BNI BUY 5,325 7,000 99,304 2,077 11,925 111 639 777 870 -86.5% 474.1% 47.8 8.3 N/A N/A 0.8 0.8 1.7 9.6
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,565 1,800 16,573 1,133 1,909 107 180 107 180 442.1% 68.5% 14.6 8.7 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 5.3 9.7
Bank Mandiri BUY 6,350 7,500 296,333 17,576 27,459 377 588 377 588 -36.0% 56.2% 16.9 10.8 N/A N/A 1.6 1.5 9.0 14.2
BTPN HOLD 2,430 2,500 19,802 1,953 2,995 240 368 352 368 -24.1% 53.4% 10.1 6.6 N/A N/A 0.6 0.6 6.3 9.0
BTPS HOLD 3,890 3,600 29,967 963 1,381 125 179 125 179 -31.2% 43.4% 31.1 21.7 N/A N/A 4.9 4.3 16.8 21.1
BPD Jatim BUY 580 760 8,709 1,161 1,265 77 84 77 84 -15.7% 9.0% 7.5 6.9 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 12.3 12.6
Cigarettes 299,092 23,747 24,334 201 206 -3.5% 2.5% 12.6 12.3 7.6 6.8 3.2 3.0 26.6 25.3
Gudang Garam BUY 52,675 57,000 101,351 10,837 11,296 5,632 5,871 5,739 6,765 -0.4% 4.2% 9.4 9.0 6.3 5.2 1.8 1.6 20.6 19.3
HM Sampoerna SELL 1,700 1,640 197,741 12,910 13,038 111 112 132 136 -5.9% 1.0% 15.3 15.2 8.8 8.4 5.3 5.2 35.2 34.6
Construction 64,918 5,379 7,280 72 98 -35.5% 35.3% 12.1 8.9 8.05 7.39 0.7 0.6 5.7 6.9
Wijaya Karya BUY 1,285 1,750 11,526 1,618 2,197 180 245 314 352 -29.2% 35.8% 7.1 5.2 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.5 9.1 10.9
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1,020 1,300 6,324 622 835 100 135 280 300 -33.1% 34.2% 10.2 7.6 3.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 4.2 5.1
Adhi Karya BUY 615 900 2,190 570 605 160 170 289 315 -14.1% 6.1% 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.2 7.2 6.6
Waskita Karya HOLD 685 730 9,298 517 693 38 51 172 172 -44.9% 34.0% 18.0 13.4 13.5 12.1 0.4 0.4 2.6 3.2
Waskita Beton BUY 173 250 4,560 250 391 9 15 34 38 -69.0% 56.4% 18.2 11.7 7.0 6.2 0.5 0.5 3.0 4.4
Wika Beton BUY 278 400 2,423 553 642 63 74 66 74 8.0% 16.1% 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.0 0.6 0.6 15.2 15.7
Jasa Marga BUY 3,940 5,500 28,596 1,249 1,917 172 264 301 371 -43.4% 53.5% 22.9 14.9 13.4 13.0 1.2 1.1 5.7 7.8
Consumer 556,023 21,048 22,350 256 271 6.0% 6.2% 26.4 24.9 15.6 14.6 6.3 5.8 25.1 24.4
Indofood CBP BUY 10,350 11,600 120,701 5,399 5,855 463 502 465 510 7.1% 8.4% 22.4 20.6 17.1 16.1 4.5 4.0 21.1 20.6
Indofood BUY 7,675 7,600 67,390 5,230 5,578 596 635 600 663 6.6% 6.7% 12.9 12.1 6.0 5.6 1.7 1.6 13.9 13.7
Unilever BUY 8,200 9,100 312,830 7,788 8,314 204 218 210 223 5.3% 6.8% 40.2 37.6 27.2 25.7 41.0 40.9 102.3 108.8
Kino Indonesia SELL 3,200 2,700 4,571 254 264 178 185 206 230 -51.2% 3.9% 18.0 17.3 9.9 8.9 1.6 1.5 9.3 8.9
Mayora Indah BUY 2,260 2,600 50,531 2,377 2,339 106 105 88 96 19.6% -1.6% 21.3 21.6 13.9 12.5 4.6 4.0 23.1 19.9
Pharmaceutical 115,470 3,765 4,066 55 60 8.2% 8.0% 30.7 28.4 19.0 17.0 4.2 3.9 14.6 14.3
Sido Muncul BUY 1,390 1,530 20,850 883 949 59 63 60 67 9.3% 7.4% 23.6 22.0 19.6 17.2 6.4 6.0 28.0 28.3
Kalbe Farma BUY 1,590 1,700 74,531 2,701 2,921 58 62 61 66 7.7% 8.1% 27.6 25.5 16.7 15.1 4.1 3.7 15.7 15.3
Phapros BUY 1,765 965 1,483 110 121 130 144 130 144 13.7% 10.5% 13.5 12.3 6.7 6.9 0.8 0.7 7.7 6.1
Kimia Farma HOLD 3,350 1,300 18,606 71 75 13 14 13 14 6.5% 5.0% 260.4 248.1 35.2 30.4 4.6 4.6 1.8 1.9
Heavy Equipment 86,726 8,152 9,324 2,185 2,500 -27.9% 14.4% 10.6 9.3 3.6 3.3 1.3 1.2 12.9 13.3
United Tractors BUY 23,250 26,000 86,726 8,152 9,324 2,185 2,500 2,817 2,769 -27.9% 14.4% 10.6 9.3 3.6 3.3 1.3 1.2 12.9 13.3
Industrial Estate 14,907 1,023 1,634 16 26 -43.4% 59.7% 14.6 9.1 5.1 4.7 0.9 0.9 6.4 9.8
Puradelta Lestari HOLD 246 220 11,857 790 904 16 19 28 21 -40.8% 14.4% 15.0 13.1 7.4 9.4 1.6 1.6 10.9 12.3
Bekasi Fajar BUY 123 230 1,187 234 457 24 47 41 48 -38.4% 95.3% 5.1 2.6 3.3 2.6 0.2 0.2 5.0 9.1
Surya Semesta BUY 396 600 1,863 (1) 273 (0) 58 46 82 -101.1% -27400.0% (1,863.3) 6.8 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.4 (0.0) 6.2
Media 30,940 2,525 3,977 87 137 -23.6% 57.5% 12.3 7.8 5.8 5.0 1.6 1.5 14.2 19.9
Media Nusantara Citra BUY 915 1,550 13,063 1,625 2,773 114 194 161 181 -27.2% 70.6% 8.0 4.7 4.3 3.4 1.0 0.9 13.3 20.3
Surya Citra Media BUY 1,210 1,450 17,877 900 1,204 61 81 95 111 -15.9% 33.8% 19.9 14.8 8.6 7.7 3.0 2.7 16.2 19.2
Mining 135,904 12,254 12,785 138 144 -0.8% 4.3% 11.1 10.6 4.0 3.9 0.9 0.9 8.3 8.3
Adaro Energy BUY 1,110 1,300 35,504 5,353 5,197 167 162 190 182 -7.3% -2.9% 6.6 6.8 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.6 9.3 8.7
Timah BUY 760 950 5,660 (343) 109 (46) 15 12 26 -44.1% -131.8% (16.5) 51.9 7.8 7.2 0.9 0.9 (5.6) 1.8
Vale Indonesia BUY 3,780 4,000 37,559 1,278 1,392 129 140 127 153 56.8% 8.9% 29.4 27.0 9.0 7.9 1.3 1.3 4.6 4.8
Aneka Tambang BUY 785 900 18,864 293 330 12 14 30 33 51.0% 12.6% 64.4 57.2 9.2 9.5 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.6
Bukit Asam BUY 2,130 3,200 24,539 3,954 4,067 343 353 364 381 -2.5% 2.9% 6.2 6.0 3.7 3.8 1.2 1.1 20.5 18.9
Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 8,400 11,000 9,491 1,519 1,434 1,345 1,269 1,531 1,483 -17.8% -5.6% 6.2 6.6 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.7 11.8 11.2
Harum Energy HOLD 1,585 1,350 4,285 199 256 74 95 116 126 -26.8% 28.6% 21.6 16.8 0.1- 0.5- 1.0 0.9 4.5 5.6
Petrochemical 209,309 2,430 2,783 22 25 64.2% 14.5% 86.1 75.2 16.5 16.0 4.8 4.7 5.6 6.3
Barito Pacif ic BUY 895 900 83,582 821 994 9 11 14 12 115.2% 21.1% 101.8 84.1 11.4 10.6 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.8
Chandra Asri Petrochemical BUY 7,050 7,500 125,726 1,609 1,789 90 100 94 105 46.4% 11.2% 78.2 70.3 27.5 27.2 4.7 4.6 6.1 6.6
Plantation 26,044 932 1,404 107 161 98.3% 50.6% 27.9 18.5 6.4 6.7 0.9 0.9 3.4 4.9
Astra Agro Lestari BUY 10,075 12,500 19,391 669 954 348 496 488 438 217.1% 42.6% 29.0 20.3 6.8 7.0 1.0 1.0 3.5 4.8
PP London Sumatra BUY 975 1,300 6,652 263 450 39 66 67 54 1.5% 71.1% 25.3 14.8 5.0 5.4 0.8 0.8 3.1 5.2
Poultry 114,971 2,750 4,107 91 135 -50.3% 49.3% 41.8 28.0 11.5 9.9 3.0 2.6 7.6 10.0
Charoen Pokphand SELL 6,100 4,100 100,028 2,070 2,934 126 179 262 322 -43.1% 41.7% 48.3 34.1 15.7 13.1 4.1 3.7 9.1 11.4
Japfa Comfeed HOLD 1,155 1,150 13,544 672 1,092 57 93 170 199 -61.9% 62.5% 20.2 12.4 5.6 5.1 1.1 1.0 6.0 8.5
Malindo Feedmill HOLD 625 600 1,399 8 81 4 36 149 180 -94.1% 912.5% 174.9 17.3 4.7 4.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 3.1
Property 62,376 4,869 5,502 40 45 -40.6% 13.0% 12.8 11.3 8.0 6.0 0.8 0.7 6.2 6.5
Alam Sutera HOLD 123 140 2,417 433 736 22 37 59 56 -57.2% 70.0% 5.6 3.3 4.9 4.9 0.2 0.2 4.1 6.4
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 780 950 16,514 2,086 1,700 99 80 103 126 -25.3% -18.5% 7.9 9.7 6.9 4.7 0.5 0.5 6.9 5.2
Ciputra Development BUY 760 850 14,106 760 746 41 40 38 55 -34.4% -1.8% 18.6 18.9 10.8 8.1 0.9 0.9 5.0 4.7
Pakuw on Jati BUY 422 450 20,323 1,435 2,141 30 44 46 50 -47.2% 49.2% 14.2 9.5 5.7 5.6 1.2 1.1 9.2 12.3
Summarecon BUY 625 800 9,017 155 179 11 12 39 46 -69.9% 15.5% 58.2 50.4 31.8 7.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.2
Retail 48,006 973 2,960 22 68 -75.5% 204.2% 49.3 16.2 5.5 5.3 2.4 2.2 5.3 14.1
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 695 850 11,537 (138) 683 (8) 41 66 74 -114.8% -594.9% (83.6) 16.9 3.6 3.8 1.6 1.5 (2.1) 9.1
Ramayana BUY 690 750 4,896 390 528 55 74 94 101 -39.8% 35.4% 12.6 9.3 3.3 3.3 1.1 1.0 9.1 11.5
Matahari Department Store HOLD 1,280 1,600 3,361 (167) 613 (64) 233 568 572 -112.2% -467.1% (20.1) 5.5 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.9 (6.6) 18.6
Ace Hardw are BUY 1,645 2,050 28,212 888 1,136 52 66 66 72 -13.8% 27.9% 31.8 24.8 19.1 17.3 5.3 4.8 17.7 20.2
Telco 420,444 22,486 23,123 119 122 -6.7% 2.8% 18.7 18.2 4.8 4.4 2.5 2.3 14.2 13.4
Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3,020 3,800 299,168 19,458 18,642 196 188 242 261 4.3% -4.2% 15.4 16.0 4.4 4.0 2.5 2.3 17.1 14.8
Indosat BUY 2,500 3,500 13,585 (1,469) (954) (270) (176) (147) (52) 193.6% 35.1% (9.2) (14.2) 2.8 2.5 1.4 1.4 (14.5) (10.0)
XL Axiata BUY 2,540 2,600 27,193 423 797 40 74 40 74 -40.7% 88.4% 64.3 34.1 3.3 2.9 1.3 1.3 2.2 3.8
Tow er Bersama BUY 1,245 1,500 28,208 1,072 1,422 47 63 45 54 30.9% 32.6% 26.3 19.8 11.8 11.0 5.5 5.0 21.9 26.3
Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 1,025 1,400 52,290 3,002 3,216 59 63 54 59 28.2% 7.1% 17.4 16.3 10.7 9.8 5.0 4.5 30.4 29.0
Transportation 2,036 247 249 35 35 4.5% 1.0% 8.3 8.2 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 10.5 10.2
Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal BUY 442 550 804 164 172 90 95 90 95 5.6% 5.1% 4.9 4.7 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 13.6
Jasa Armada Indonesia HOLD 232 135 1,226 70 63 13 12 13 12 1.4% -10.0% 17.5 19.5 8.9 10.4 1.1 1.1 6.4 5.6
EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 26-Aug-20 25-Aug-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Surya Semesta SSIA 396 374 5.9 11.2 4.2 (39.5) BUY
Puradelta Lestari DMAS 246 234 5.1 4.2 7.9 (16.9) HOLD
BTPS BTPS 3,890 3,740 4.0 0.5 22.3 (8.5) HOLD
XL Axiata EXCL 2,540 2,480 2.4 (0.4) (9.3) (19.4) BUY
Sido Muncul SIDO 1,390 1,360 2.2 3.0 10.8 9.0 BUY
PP London Sumatra LSIP 975 955 2.1 (2.0) (3.0) (34.3) BUY
Bank Mandiri BMRI 6,350 6,250 1.6 5.4 8.1 (17.3) BUY
Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,450 10,300 1.5 10.0 11.5 (12.9) HOLD
Mayora Indah MYOR 2,260 2,230 1.3 (0.9) (0.4) 10.2 BUY
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,020 2,980 1.3 (0.3) (0.7) (22.9) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 26-Aug-20 25-Aug-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,285 1,320 (2.7) 8.4 6.2 (35.4) BUY
Harum Energy HRUM 1,585 1,625 (2.5) 12.4 33.2 20.1 HOLD
Alam Sutera ASRI 123 126 (2.4) 4.2 (3.9) (48.3) HOLD
Indofood INDF 7,675 7,850 (2.2) 4.8 18.5 (3.2) BUY
Timah TINS 760 775 (1.9) (2.6) 4.8 (7.9) BUY
Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR 1,025 1,045 (1.9) (1.0) (5.5) 27.3 BUY
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1,315 1,340 (1.9) 6.9 6.9 (39.4) BUY
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,590 1,620 (1.9) (2.2) 2.6 (1.9) BUY
Bekasi Fajar BEST 123 125 (1.6) 0.8 (5.4) (43.1) BUY
Tower Bersama TBIG 1,245 1,265 (1.6) (2.4) 2.5 1.2 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Telco: Price tracker July ‘20 - big tests for telcos
▪ Bank Central Asia: Unjustified valuation ▪ Kino Indonesia: Inline 2Q20 earnings
▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Cost cutting supported the 1Q20 performance ▪ Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Signs of Anemic 2Q20
▪ Poultry: May 2020 livebird update - Unexpectedly strong Lebaran effect amid the COVID-19 pandemic
▪ Strategy: The new normal – Less contact economy ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: Lower rating from Fitch Ratings Indonesia
▪ Plantation: Weighed down by new levy structure ▪ Consumer Confidence: Continuing the decline in May 2020
▪ Covid-19 Update: The start of new normal
▪ Harum Energy: 1Q20 – hit by a higher tax rate ▪ Telco: Discussion takeaways with Dirjen Kemkominfo
▪ Bank Central Asia: Still at a better position ▪ United Tractors: Another month of soft Komatsu sales
▪ Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Dragged down by lower volume and ASP of DOC
▪ Telkom Indonesia: FY19 in line core profit, anemic 4Q19 ▪ Banking: Lift off some of the concerns
▪ PP London Sumatra: Anemic Volume for 2020 ▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: A big step forward
▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Above expectation on forex gains ▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: In line 1Q20 earnings
▪ Retail: Hope For the Best, Well Prepared For The Worst ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Managing expectations
▪ Charoen Pokphand Indonesia: Lower corn costs, higher contribution from foods
▪ Sarana Menara Nusantara: Earnings beat – upward revision guidance ▪ Ciputra Development: Lower margins in all development properties
▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Higher overall volume, feed margin expansion
▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Attractive valuation amid uncertainties
▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Liquidity first
▪ Astra International: The outlook remains challenging
▪ Semen Indonesia: Decent results supported by efficiency gains
▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Weak monthly sales as expected
▪ Adaro Energy: Decent results
▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: The Start of Tempestuous Times
▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Challenging outlook
▪ Indosat Ooredoo: Aiming at data troughs in 2Q20
▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Negative earnings growth led by chicken prices
▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Lower revenues amid accounting changes
▪ Jasa Marga: Finding ways to survive
▪ Indo Tambangraya: Lower prices and production softened earnings
▪ Mayora Indah: 1Q20 earnings – Buoyed by forex gains
▪ HM Sampoerna: Inline 1Q20 earnings
▪ Banking (Overweight): Higher risk in the short term
▪ HM Sampoerna: Inline 1Q20 earnings
▪ Mayora Indah: 1Q20 earnings: Buoyed by forex gains
▪ Jasa Marga: Finding ways to survive
▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Lower revenues amid accounting changes
▪ Indo Tambangraya: Lower prices and production softened earnings
▪ Gudang Garam: Holding firm
▪ HM Sampoerna: Facing headwinds
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
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Stefanus Darmagiri
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Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
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Andreas Kenny
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Thalia Kadharusman
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Muhammad Naufal Yunas
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Research Associate
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, August 27, 2020
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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