thursday, december 21, 2017 tonight’s futures...

2
Tonight’s Futures Closes: (Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.) Mar 18 Corn $3.5125 +2.0 Jan 18 Soybeans $9.4875 -5.25 Mar 18 CH Wheat $4.27 +3.5 May 18 Corn $3.595 +2.0 Mar 18 Soybeans $9.59 -5.5 July 18 CH Wheat $4.5175 +1.75 July 18 Corn $3.6775 +1.75 May 18 Soybeans $9.705 -5.5 Mar 18 KC Wheat $4.2425 +1.75 Sep 18 Corn $3.75 +1.5 Jul 18 Soybeans $9.81 -5.5 July 18 KC Wheat $4.5375 +1.5 Dec 18 Corn $3.8375 +1.25 Nov 18 Soybeans $9.715 -4.5 Mar 18 MN Wheat $6.17 -0.75 Mar 18 Oats $2.44 -1.0 Jan 18 Rapeseed $492.1 -2.7 Sep 18 MN Wheat $6.3575 -0.25 Mar 18 Meal $318.1 -1.6 Mar 18 Cotton $77.94 +2.23 Mar Dollar Index 92.640 +0.084 Mar 18 SB Oil $32.83 -0.30 May 18 Cotton $77.96 +1.84 Feb Crude Oil $58.32 +0.19 Feb 17 Cattle 119.675 +0.725 Dec 18 Cotton $73.74 +0.65 Dec Gold $1265.9 -0.2 Mar 18 Feeder 140.400 +0.650 Jan 18 Rice $1199.5 +15.5 Mar S&P 2692.00 +10.40 Feb 17 Hogs 68.575 +0.200 Nov 18 Rice $1182.5 +2.5 Mar Dow Jones 24,824 +84 Thursday, December 21, 2017 Happy 1 st day of winter! The good news is the days start getting longer now!! But winter weather looks like it’s also moving in for many of us, just in time for Christmas. Markets saw a little more of the same today – soybeans closing lower for the 11 th day of the last 12, cotton making new highs, and corn & wheat adding to yesterday’s small gains. GSC’s Diana Klemme wrote: “Pre-holiday market turning a little higher, more chatter about business with China, minimal farm selling, end-user pricing? Remember there are a lot of folks already out for the holiday(s) and either rallies or breaks can move further than fundamentals (or technicals) really warrant.” Soybeans continue to suffer from managed funds playing “get me out” of their long

Upload: others

Post on 07-Oct-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Tonight’s Futures Closesfiles.constantcontact.com/ec2269c3301/9f84b183-4... · (Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures

Tonight’s Futures Closes:

(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Mar 18 Corn $3.5125 +2.0 Jan 18 Soybeans $9.4875 -5.25

Mar 18 CH Wheat $4.27 +3.5

May 18 Corn $3.595 +2.0

Mar 18 Soybeans $9.59 -5.5 July 18 CH Wheat $4.5175 +1.75

July 18 Corn $3.6775 +1.75 May 18 Soybeans $9.705 -5.5

Mar 18 KC Wheat $4.2425 +1.75

Sep 18 Corn $3.75 +1.5 Jul 18 Soybeans $9.81 -5.5

July 18 KC Wheat $4.5375 +1.5

Dec 18 Corn $3.8375 +1.25 Nov 18 Soybeans $9.715 -4.5 Mar 18 MN Wheat $6.17 -0.75

Mar 18 Oats $2.44 -1.0 Jan 18 Rapeseed $492.1 -2.7 Sep 18 MN Wheat $6.3575 -0.25

Mar 18 Meal $318.1 -1.6 Mar 18 Cotton $77.94 +2.23 Mar Dollar Index 92.640 +0.084

Mar 18 SB Oil $32.83 -0.30 May 18 Cotton $77.96 +1.84 Feb Crude Oil $58.32 +0.19

Feb 17 Cattle 119.675 +0.725 Dec 18 Cotton $73.74 +0.65 Dec Gold $1265.9 -0.2

Mar 18 Feeder

140.400 +0.650 Jan 18 Rice $1199.5 +15.5 Mar S&P 2692.00 +10.40

Feb 17 Hogs 68.575 +0.200 Nov 18 Rice $1182.5 +2.5 Mar Dow Jones 24,824 +84

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Happy 1st day of winter! The good news is the

days start getting longer now!! But winter

weather looks like it’s also moving in for many

of us, just in time for Christmas.

Markets saw a little more of the same today –

soybeans closing lower for the 11th day of the

last 12, cotton making new highs, and corn &

wheat adding to yesterday’s small gains.

GSC’s Diana Klemme wrote: “Pre-holiday

market turning a little higher, more chatter

about business with China, minimal farm

selling, end-user pricing? Remember there

are a lot of folks already out for the

holiday(s) and either rallies or breaks can

move further than fundamentals (or

technicals) really warrant.”

Soybeans continue to suffer from managed

funds playing “get me out” of their long

Page 2: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Tonight’s Futures Closesfiles.constantcontact.com/ec2269c3301/9f84b183-4... · (Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. CGB Diversified Services, Inc is a

registered introducing broker and a member of the NFA. Except as otherwise indicated DS does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of DS. All electronic communications

may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, DS or its affiliates may have positions in, and effect proprietary transactions in, futures, options, securities or other financial instruments which may be referred to herein. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood

prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange. Diversified Crop Insurance Services is a company of CGB Enterprises, Inc. and is an equal opportunity provider.

Diversified Services Marketing Group / Rich Morrison 1610 West Lafayette Ave Jacksonville, Illinois 62650 (217) 479-6012

positions. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report they were still ling 20,000 contracts. Tomorrow’s report will likely show

them short soybeans. The question going forward is, “Will they keep adding to their shorts, like wheat & corn?” It’s already been

a hard break in January soybeans (chart page 1) – but we’re still 40 cents above the early summer low. Unless South American

weather becomes an issue – which it’s currently not much of one – or there’s a change in direction for US 2018 planted acres, this

market could still have more downside.

Month to Date Precipitation 16-Day Precipitation Forecast

On the other hand, March cotton futures traded to a new contract high today! As I mentioned in today’s TTMM, fund exuberance

over strong export sales has pumped up their net long position in cotton to 90,000 contracts as of last Friday, only 16,000 from last

spring’s record. Tomorrow’s COT report may show they record long. The RSI (73) and stochastics both show this market ready to

top out, so I suggest either cash sales or at least defending this price on remaining old crop stocks. And with new crop December

cotton trading near 74 cents, you might consider hedging or defending that prices as well.

Both nearby corn and wheat, easily the two most negative markets we’ve have had, have both finally found some footing on the

charts. Now keep in mind that these continuous charts show a gap higher last week due to switching from December to March

futures as the lead month. I’ve suggested that the corn market has really identified $3.40 as the equilibrium price for corn, plus or

minus a dime – basically the range it’s traded September, December, & now March corn since mid-August. So today’s higher trade

(March corn up 4 ¼ cents the last 3 days, March wheat up 7 ¼ cents the last 2 days) has the charts looking a lot more interesting.

Pushing this move has been indicators like the RSI & Stochastics on the daily charts that showed both of these oversold, and last

week’s Commitment of Traders Report showing managed funds not far from their record short positions. This looks like a perfect

storm for a short-covering bump. I don’t see any reason for a sustained move in either market. But I’ve suggested that corn could

pick up 10-15 cents off of its low, which on the chart above would give it a test of the 200-day MA near $3.57 (nearby March corn),

and on December ’18 corn a chance to trade in the $3.90-3.95 area.