time event estimate date est act. diff. s&p best worst -0.1 -0

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Initial Claims 326 10/7 -22 0.83

8:30 Continuing Claims 2730 10/7 -52 0.83

8:30 PPI 0.7 9/10 0.1 -0.77

8:30 Core PPI 0.6 9/10 0.0 -0.77

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

8:30 CPI 0.3 9/14 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.57 HC Ener

8:30 Core CPI 0.2 9/14 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.57 HC Ener

14:00 FOMC Minutes

16:30 Brainard Speaks at Fed Listens Event in OK.

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

FRPT Truist Hold Buy

GPK Baird Neutral Outperf

NI Goldman Neutral Buy

PLUG M Stanley Mkt Wgt Overwgt

STZ HSBC Neutral Buy

WEX B of A Neutral Buy

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CONE Wells Fargo Overwgt Mkt Wgt

MNST Jefferies Buy Hold

SRE Goldman Buy Neutral

SWKS Baird Buy Neutral

W Jefferies Buy Hold

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

AGCO Deutsche Reiterated Buy

ALB Mizuho Initiated Buy

CDAY Davidson Initiated Buy

CTVA Mizuho Initiated Buy

HUBS RBC Capital Initiated Outperf

- US Equity Futures Higher and Yields and Oil Move Lower.

- JPM Morgan Trades Modestly Higher After Kicking Off Earnings Season.

Trading Up ($):

AMZN (17.67), BLK (13.81), SGH (5.49), NFLX (5.31), TSLA (4.85), FRPT (3.6)

Trading Down ($):

W (-7.27), CRSP (-5.77), SWKS (-3.85), COIN (-2.34), MNST (-1.88), AAPL (-0.76)-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow and Beyond

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Key Earnings Reports

Key Major Economic Indicators

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AAPL Semiconductor shortage will force company to cut iPhone 13 production by over 10% in Q4.

BLK Reported better than expected EPS and sales.

CRSP Trades down over 10% after announcing results of phase 1 CARBON trial.

DAL Reported better than expected EPS and sales; fuel price increases pressuring profitability.

IP Announced $2 bln stock buyback plan in conjunction with spin-off of papers printing unit.

JPM Reported better than expected EPS on inline revenues.

NFLX Says Squid Games is the biggest show in the network's history with 111 million views.

QCOM Increased buyback program by $10 billion (7% of market cap).

SAP Reported better than expected EPS and revenues; raised sales guidance for cloud segment.

SGH Beat EPS forecasts by 56 cents (2.16 vs 1.60) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

SRPT Announces $500 mln share secondary offering.

VMEO Says subscriber growth came in at 14% y/y in September.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.03 0.17 0.52

Technicals 0.20 0.30 0.50

Fundamental 0.20 0.39 0.65

Overall 0.18 0.30 0.53

Average (all days) 0.16 0.32 0.65

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

i -0.3 %

h 1.2

h 0.8

i -0.1

Oil 79.92 i -$0.7

Gold 1773.3 h $14.0

$/Euro 0.865 i 0.00

$/Yen 113.52 i -0.1

Bitcoin 55,192 i -171

10-Yr 1.56 i -0.01

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Market and Sector Seasonality – Last 10 Years

Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales

BAC 10/14 AM 78% 55% 0% - 2. 50878073 - 2. 85857573 - 0. 72705241 - 5. 33066132 - 2. 72357724 - 6. 48967552 - 1. 8403171 1. 479986546

C 10/14 AM 76% 58% 0% - 0. 29252596 - 0. 50747497 - 6. 92653239 - 4. 7951177 - 4. 0007657 - 5. 63628358 1. 562306262 1. 395216401

CMC 10/14 AM 54% 46% 3% - 3. 8277512 1. 693121693 - 3. 9893617 - 2. 70388138 5. 558414822 8. 703220191 - 0. 27051398 1. 164021164

DPZ 10/14 AM 72% 63% 0% 14. 55237366 2. 978091348 - 7. 01884308 - 6. 96902911 - 1. 48907368 - 3. 67687296 25. 60080781 4. 652987077

MS 10/14 AM 79% 77% 0% 0. 183863292 - 2. 75921802 - 0. 20002667 1. 34254689 2. 352712425 - 0. 10416667 6. 611258028 1. 519046506

PGR 10/14 AM 75% 64% 0% - 2. 56541816 3. 313438979 - 5. 10248583 - 0. 61833051 1. 644970414 - 1. 51609295 5. 703073905 - 2. 80112045

USB 10/14 AM 59% 71% 0% 3. 211089665 - 2. 17089267 - 5. 17994591 - 0. 44247788 3. 720033067 - 6. 89944134 - 2. 86269659 1. 506696429

UNH 10/14 AM 93% 69% 23% 1. 280320201 3. 828235231 - 0. 38331582 - 2. 88757468 - 1. 44237002 4. 133086876 2. 834443519 8. 159934721

WBA 10/14 AM 85% 48% 11% - 7. 41303935 3. 62400906 5. 182430862 4. 817599554 - 7. 75597068 - 6. 29793168 - 5. 83572272 0. 685673042

WFC 10/14 AM 53% 56% 0% 3. 978718483 5. 529027394 - 7. 79856115 - 6. 02263541 - 4. 60267506 - 5. 3313253 - 5. 39243907 1. 704891415

AA 10/14 PM 51% 58% 0% - 4. 60335843 8. 495736906 - 12. 3905429 - 5. 38461538 6. 388012618 - 3. 44370861 - 11. 8929633 5. 949895616

Price Reaction: most recent report is on the left.

Price Reaction

(Last 8 Reports)

Beat Rate Raised

Guid.

Other Key Events

Sector One Week One Month Three Months

Comm Services (XLC) 0.83 1.10 2.42

Cons Discret (XLY) 0.69 1.09 6.09

Cons Staples (XLP) 0.19 -0.06 2.00

Energy (XLE) 0.87 2.19 5.29

Financials (XLF) 1.82 5.09 9.73

Health Care (XLV) 0.73 2.44 6.58

Industrials (XLI) 0.79 4.98 10.45

Materials (XLB) 0.62 3.29 7.37

Real Estate (XLRE) 2.30 -0.20 -0.34

Technology (XLK) -0.12 3.50 5.08

Utilities (XLU) 1.52 1.71 0.44

Median Performance (%) From 10/13 Close…

8:30 Bullard Discusses Economy

10:00 Bostic Discusses Inclusivity

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage

11:00 DoE Energy Inventories

13:00 Barkin and Daly Speak at Seperate Conferences

18:00 Fed's Harker Discusses Outlook

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OB OB

$/Yen OB OB

2-Year OS OS

10-Year OS OS

Gold N N

Silver N OS

Copper N N

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas N OB

OS N OB

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

MGM 9.6 43 1.2 58.1 1.4 58.1

VVV 9.2 16 0.3 56.3 2.1 68.8

RUN 8.5 88 1.6 62.5 2.0 56.8

MATX 8.3 25 -1.4 24.0 -1.3 36.0

COLB -14.9 5 5.3 80.0 2.5 60.0

ORGO -14.1 16 -7.7 31.3 -13.5 31.3

TREX -10.8 6 5.7 83.3 7.6 83.3

AMKR -10.7 6 6.7 100.0 4.2 50.0

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OS OS

Cons Discret. N OS

Cons Staples OS OS

Energy OB OB

Financials N OB

Health Care OS OS

Industrials OS OS

Materials N OS

Technology OS OS

Comm. Svcs OS OS

Utilities OS OS

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

44.2

22.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h -1.9 % -2.1 %10-Day A/D Line i -56 379# of Overbought Stocks h 114 94

# of Oversold Stocks i 221 228

P/E Ratio Trailing h 26.05 26.02 Forward h 21.43 21.36

Dividend Yield i 1.37 % 1.37 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 320 317Corporate Bonds h 90 89

Current One Week Ago


BespokePremium.com


For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

Ticker Price

SLB 32.89 2.77 -2.25 30.4

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

MSCI 594.55 -1.76 3.35 63.2

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive


https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Morning-Lineup-Explained.pdf

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

4/19 5/17 6/14 7/12 8/9 9/6 10/4

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

4/19 5/17 6/14 7/12 8/9 9/6 10/4

50-DMA: 1152

200-DMA: 1137

1148

1152

1156

1160

1164

1168

1172

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

1167

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

1710

1720

1730

1740

1750

1760

1770

1780

1790

1800

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

200-DMA: 1801

50-DMA: 17791764

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

4250

4300

4350

4400

4450

4500

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

200-DMA: 4161

50-DMA: 44374351

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

200-DMA: 2226

2170

2205

2240

2275

2310

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

50-DMA: 2231

2234

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

50-DMA: 14872

200-DMA: 14021

14000

14200

14400

14600

14800

15000

15200

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

14466

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

52

57

62

67

72

77

82

87

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

200-DMA: 65

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

50-DMA: 71

80.50


BespokePremium.com


DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

4/14 5/12 6/10 7/9 8/6 9/3 10/4

200-DMA: 14363

13900

14100

14300

14500

14700

14900

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

50-DMA: 14528

14724

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/19 5/17 6/15 7/14 8/11 9/9 10/7

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/19 5/17 6/15 7/14 8/11 9/9 10/7

200-DMA: 159

156

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/4 10/6 10/8 10/12

50-DMA: 162158.81


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary Overview: US large cap stocks are poised to gap up 20 bps as futures trade at session highs. Rates are

bull-flattening, the dollar is reversing off 52w highs, industrial and precious metals are up over 1%, oil

prices are back below $80, and crypto is flat as markets eye the latest major CPI report due from the

BLS at 8:30 AM this morning. FOMC minutes from the September 22nd meeting are also due. Global

Economic Scorecard

US Earnings: US banks got their reporting started and earnings season truly kicked off as JP Morgan

(JPM) reported Q3 results. While we are concerned money center banks and those with large trading

arms will be able to preserve profit surges last year that were contingent on higher financial market

volatility, JPM easily hurdled EPS, beating forecasts by 25%. Investment banking continued to run hot,

with revenues beating by 14% and a record quarter for

M&A advisory specifically. Other parts of the institution-

al business were weaker as fixed income, currency, and

commodity (FICC) trading revenue dropped 20% YoY and

missed estimates slightly. Equities revenues were still up

30% YoY (off of extremely strong base numbers) and

beat by almost 20%.

Turning to the bank’s traditional lending business, total

loans were in-line with estimates, but charge-offs were

about half of what was expected as the bank’s credit

quality continues to improve. As shown at left, loan loss

reserves are down to 1.74% of the total loan book, com-

pared with a peak in Q2 of last year around 3.28%. JPM was more aggressive than other big money

center banks in recording reserves and is starting to slow the rate at which it unleashes them. Finally,

we note that Jamie Dimon cited accelerating commercial real estate lending activity as a catalyst for

loan growth going forward. Guidance in general wasn’t materially changed with JPM forecasting no

change in total net interest income this year. Overall this was a much stronger report than many had

feared might come as the trading and dealmaking tailwinds of the pandemic faded, and the bank’s core

lending businesses look like they’re in excellent shape still.

Also on the wires this morning was Delta Airlines (DAL) which reported an adjusted EPS profit of 30

cents, more than twice what analysts expected. Total revenues were 8.3% higher than expected as the

passenger load factor rose to 80% (versus 75% expected, a huge beat). That said, profitability will be

weaker in Q4 thanks to higher fuel prices, with costs per available seat mile up 6%-8% versus Q4 of

2019 and capacity at about 80% of those pre-COVID levels. The CEO also noted that demand is still

“pretty volatile” and that there has been an increase in domestic business travel, but the business will

be “fully restored” over the course of next year.

Europe Earnings: Two massive luxury names reported revenues yesterday with Christian Dior (OTC

CHDRF) and LVMH (ADR LVMUY) both up over 1% after announcing results. The two report consolidat-

ed sales numbers. Organic revenues were up 20% YoY, slightly less than expected, but fashion and

leather goods beat (24% YoY versus 21% forecast).

JPM Loan Loss Releases Continue, More Ahead For Other Banks

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5JPM

JPM, WFC, C, BAC, PNC, USB Total

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global







5

APAC Markets: Chinese credit growth

disappointment (especially for mort-

gages) was offset by an exports surge

in September which we will discuss in

greater detail on the next page. There

wasn’t much to speak of in Asia over-

night in terms of headline catalysts,

though onshore large caps did turn in

a 1.2% gain in China. Hong Kong was

shuttered due to weather, but Japan

fell along with Taiwan while Korea,

India, Singapore, and India rose close

to or more than 1%. Local FX was uni-

versally higher versus the dollar led by

Korean won, which gained almost a

half percent versus USD from 52-week

lows.

In commodity markets, iron ore

plunged in Singapore, while energy

prices continued to soar in China.

Front-month thermal coal futures

ripped 10% for a second straight ses-

sion. Iron ore has had a surprisingly

durable bounce from September lows,

but that recovery is still uncertain as

shown at right.

Europe Markets: The recent reversal

of European energy futures from par-

abolic highs is also reversing a bit to-

day with gains in natural gas and pow-

er contracts after some consistent sales. The STOXX 600 is at two week highs on close to 2:1 positive

breadth, led by Tech (+2.7%), Consumer Products and Services (+1.4%) and Retail (+1.3%) while Energy,

Banks, and Insurance all drop 1% or more on a dramatic bull-flattening of the Eurozone yield curve.

GBP is up modestly versus USD this morning and trading near 52-week highs versus EUR as the BoE

appears to be stumbling towards a rate hike thanks to higher inflation readings. Given the relatively

inelastic inflation drivers in the UK (COVID disruptions, commodities), we’re pretty skeptical that a de-

mand-cooling tightening will be helpful as Brexit impacts continue to work themselves out, but recent

comments from a range of BoE Monetary Policy Committee members suggest a rate hike may be forth-

coming sooner rather than later. 6m1d OIS forwards suggest two hikes over the next six months, up

from 0 in early July.

Morning Commentary Iron Ore Futures: How Long Will The Rebound Last?

Stiill Only Small Relief for Power Prices In Europe

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

Singapore-Listed

Dalian-Listed

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

UK Front-Month Natural Gas (GBP)

Germany Front-Month Baseload Power (EUR)








6

Overnight Data: A couple of notable Chinese data points were released overnight, with the country’s

trade balance rising more than expected as exports hit a record after seasonal adjustment and imports

fell. With respect to the US-China trade balance specifically, the recent pullback in the trade deficits

has stopped and the bilateral numbers are the widest on record. That’s one sign that trade snarls could

be starting to clear. Also released were September trade numbers, which showed the slowest growth

of the series which works as a proxy for mortgage lending since 2012. Corporate lending is slowing as

well while shadow bank balances continue to fall. UK monthly output came in higher than expected,

while the Eurozone faces the same auto production woes as the US, dragging on total manufacturing

output. Finally, purchase apps continue to show a bottoming in transaction volumes.

Morning Commentary

Record Exports, Falling Imports From China

China Loan Growth (SA By Bespoke, 3m/3m Ann. % Change)

Record Wides In US-China Trade Deficit ($ bn, SA By Bespoke)

UK Growth Turns Around In August

Eurozone Manufacturing Production (2015 = 100) Purchase Apps Still Trending Up

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300Exports

Imports

Trade Balance

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

US Trade Balance w/China, Chinese Customs

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Shadow Banking

Medium/Long-Term Consumer (Mortgage Proxy)

Non-Financial Corporate

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50Manufacturing Production

GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Manufacturing

Motor Vehicles

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340Monthly Avg MortgageApplications for HomePurchase, Adv 1mNew + Existing Home Salesmm SAAR








7

Coronavirus: Case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths are continuing to roll over in the US. It wasn’t

until October last year that case counts started to surge again, so the longer we go without increases

now, the more likely it is that we avoid another winter surge like last year. Vaccination rates continue

to inch higher with just over 76% of Americans 12 and older receiving one dose and nearly two-thirds

fully vaxxed.

Morning Commentary

COVID-19 National Tracking Data: As-Of 10/11/2021

Note: As-of 10/9/2021

Note: As-of 10/10/2021

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Period Subject To Most Revision

Persons Receiving First Dose (% 12+Population, Daily Change, 7d Avg)

JNJ Paused

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New Cases ('000s)

7-Day Moving Avg

1

6

11

16

21

26

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 Total Tests 7dAvg ('000s)

Period MostSubject ToRevision

7 Day PositiveTest Rate (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Total COVID-19Hospitalizations ('000s)Period Most Subject ToRevision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Partially Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Fully Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Total w 1+ dose: 76.6%

Fully Vax'd:

65.6%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths

7-Day Moving Avg








8

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

World

East Asia

Africa

India

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore


time event estimate date est act. diff. s&p best worst -0.1 -0

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