time to bet on the cloud?

Time to Bet on the Cloud?

1

Alexis RichardsonCEO Rabbit Technologies Ltd

July 9 [email protected]

Thursday, 9 July 2009

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Thank you!

Im in yr serverz,queueing yr messagezPhoto credit: http://flickr.com/photos/53366513@N00/67046506/

RabbitMQ


Hybrid solutions allow for cautious migrationCohesiveFT 20 Cloud Computing

Startups You Should Know

..and between your physical data center and your cloud

deployment.

...across multiple clouds...

VPN-Cubed provides securityand control for your IT

infrastructure inside the cloud...

Giving you control of addressing, protocol, topology, and secure communications.


Scale is not my problem


Animoto: 50 EC2 slices to 3,500 over 3 days

Scale is not my problem


The future is “cloudy”

58% of CIOs say cloud computing will cause a radical shift in IT

47% say they're already using it or actively researching it.

Source: CIO Research cited in “Cloud computing: IT execs see both promise & security issues, By LAURIANNE MCLAUGHLIN, IDG October 22, 2008

What CIOs say


http://www.flickr.com/photos/psdThursday, 9 July 2009

http://www.flickr.com/photos/psd


Google

AppEngine

Slice

Host Engine

Yard

Mosso

FlexiScale

Joyent

Amazon

EC2

http://www.flickr.com/photos/psdThursday, 9 July 2009



confidential 7

PUBLIC Cloud


Cloud computing is IT as a serviceMagic?

Source: The 451 Group


Cloud computing is IT as a serviceMagic?

Source: The 451 Group

SecurityScalability

AvailabilityPerformance

Cost-effectiveness


Data (re)liability



Amazon starts at 10 cents / CPU-hour- or as little as 3 cents if you block book

EngineYard “Solo” - Rails on EC2 - starts at 18

JPMorgan pay 50 according to 451 Group

Merrill Lynch pay less..

IBM - I’ve heard range of 13-25 cents

But it’s about choice - not just price.

Key points


Cloud

... is a business model


Fundamental Theorem of Cloud: If you can reliably beat cloud providers on price, availability, and scalability... Then you are a cloud provider.


Market conditions place additional emphasis on cost-savings

In uncertain economic times, companies look for immediate cost-cutting measures. Cloud computing can

reduce IT costs without negatively affecting ongoing operations.

Capital expenditure via “hardware refresh” vs. operating expense.

Cheap is good


Software computers are a heck of a lot cheaper to assemble, deploy, manage than metal Someone else spending

their capital is way better than me spending my capital

I’ll spend my money on an IT staff that helps me leverage these two axioms

Other people’s money


Elasticity = Freedom


Bet on: CHOICE


confidential

2008: first real “year of cloud”

MS Azure, VMware, GoGrid, Mosso, and and and ....

(But ISPs still don’t “get it”)

More cloud services than users?

Much much more to come...

24

How big can this be?


DMAC

Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”


DMAC

Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

Service.DomainName

Region Virtual IP

Cloud IPs


It’s complicated



Disruption is bad

It must be failure proof

Plans are not subject to change

You can take opportunity without risk

Business is a source of revenue, IT is a source of risk

And IT must justify itself with predictions

Sales people are there to help you (eat)

Machine huggers...

The ‘fool proof’ enterprise


Business expects


Can I control my infra?

Is it stable?

The future is “cloudy”Reasonable concerns

Migrating sunk resources is hard. Can I move my whole data center to the cloud?

Will my apps, tools, and people still work in the exact same way? Is it cheap to change?

Does the cloud provider have business model that I can rely on? What is their cost of capital?

Will I get fired for this?


Clouds don’t careThursday, 9 July 2009

• Increasing Uncertainty• Growing Abundance• Intensifying Competition• Growing Power of Customers• Limited access to capital

From Push to Pull – Emerging Model for Mobilizing Resources – John Hagel & John Seely Brown - 2005

Amazon’s CTO on Economic Drivers


Backup and Recovery

Media Distribution

Elastic Computing

Scalable Web Sites

Financial Applications

Large-scale Simulation

Amazon Use Cases


http://www.lilly.com/


Founded Jan 200820+ Million Users

4 of top 10 games on Facebook20 billion customer minutes per month

(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS




(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS

S3(games 1-2MB ea)




(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS

S3(games 1-2MB ea)

M1.S M1.S M1.S M1.S

M1.L M1.L

M1.XL

LoadBalancing

Mid-Tier

Database

EC2

EBS EBS EBS EBS


ProduceEncode

DistributeArchive


Video Citizen Journalism


Video Citizen Journalism

4 Weeks!



MANY Clouds - not just Amazon any more

They are a commercial SERVICE

In production - NO WAIT needed

SIMPLE resource allocation that can be audited

STOP paying if you don’t like your IT provider

Extend your infra in a CONTROLLED way

You are not alone

It’s BUSINESS time


Would you bet on your own infrastructure to scale

Can you save money - or defer expenditure to when it is needed

Will you get fired

Would you bet on the cloud


45

Manage expectations


Experiment



Some companies begin with the “coffee ordering” systemOffload some systems


Make money



Scale confidently

Leverage the cloud for peak demand or seasonal spikes.

Play the peak game


Control



Analysts cite security and control top cloud-computing concern

“Cloud computing has unique attributes that require risk assessment in areas such as data integrity, recovery, and privacy, and an evaluation of legal issues in areas such as e-discovery, regulatory compliance, and auditing,”1

Customers currently lack control of security in the cloud.

1. Source: Assessing the Risks of Cloud Computing, Gartner, June 2008. 2. Source: IDC Enterprise Panel, August 2008.3. InformationWeek Analytics Cloud Computing Survey, September, 2008

Check your assumptions


Confidence



Hybrid solutions allow for cautious migrationUse guerilla tactics


What about data

What about latency

What about regulations

Would you bet on the cloud


Time to make a stand?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_return

All of this has happened before and it will all happen again




57

CLOUD-OS

LOCK IN

(CC) Giara @flickr.com

Attack of the clones?


Defend your data


Open Services?


Open MessagingThursday, 9 July 2009

Open Cloud = Your Cloud


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Steady state of ~40 instances

Would you bet on this?


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Launch of Facebook application

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Launch of Facebook application

Amazon EC2 easily scaled up and down to handle additional traffic

Peak of 3500 instances

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time to bet on the cloud?

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