Time variable analysisDamien Dornic (IFIC)

MANTS meeting – Paris Sept 2010

Solidaire

MotivationMore than 50% of sources are found to be variable…

→ Use this time information direclty in the analysis:* reduce effectively the background* improve the discovery potential over a time

integrated search.

→ Search for signal from blazars AGN – candidate sources for UHECR(p-γ or p-p strong correlation between γ-ray and neutrino fluxes) γ-ray catalogues:

- Fermi (>100 Mev - ~10 GeV)- IACT (>100 GeV)- Swift (~10 keV)

γ-ray LC: Fermi (1)Candidate Fermi sources for ANTARES:Name OFGL Class z F300 σ2

NXS

PKS0208-512 J0210.8-5100 FSRQ 1.003 4.43 0.87

AO0235+164 J0238.6+1636 BLLac 0.940 13.19 0.66

PKS0454-234 J457.1-2325 FSRQ 1.003 13.56 0.24

OJ287 J0855.4+2009 BLLac 0.306 2.48 0.16

WComae J1221.7+28.14 BLLAc 0.102 2.58 0.17

3C273 J1229.1+0202 FSRQ 0.158 8.68 0.38

3C279 J1256.1-0548 FSRQ 0.536 15.69 0.62

PKS1454-354 J1457.6-3538 FSRQ 1.424 8.49 0.34

PKS1502+106 J1504.4+1030 FSRQ 1.839 29.57 0.17

PKS1510-089 J1512.7-0905 FSRQ 0.,36 28.67 0.91

PKS2155-304 J2158.7-3014 BLLac 0.116 7.89 0.14

3c454.3 J2254.0+1609 FSRQ 0.859 24.58 0.82

γ-ray LC: FermiFermi satellite takes data since July 2008 (MJD=54683) → Complete coverage every 3h → Public dataMethod to select flares: 1) Selections of γ-ray sources → Selection of Blazars → Flux (>300MeV) > 20 10-8 photons.cm-2.s-1 (high state)

→ Variability σ2NXS > 0.15 (Abdo et al, ……..)

2) Light curves (1-day bin): format .fits → http://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/lat/msl_lc/

3) Determination of the flare periods

(idem for Swift catalogue)

γ-ray LC: Fermi (2)PKS0208-512 3C279

PKS2155-304PKS1510-089

γ-ray LC: Fermi (3)Determination of the flare ( high state) periods

Pragmatic method: 1) “baseline“ determination 2) find the point above this baseline taking into account the error and the baseline fluctuation 3) flare periods (adding adjacent points compatible)

PKS1510-089

γ-ray LC: Fermi (4)PKS0208-512 3C279

PKS2155-3043C454.3

γ-ray LC: Fermi (5)Fermi flares list:

Name MJDPKS0208-512 54713, 54733-4, 54738-40, 54745-55, 54762-8, 54773, 54894-5

AO0235+164 54715-7, 54726-9, 54732-3, 54752-62, 54769, 54774, 54871-2

PKS0454-234 54793, 54841-2

OJ287 54695, 54742-3, 54755

WComae 54755-6, 54848-50

3C273 54691, 54715, 54721-6, 54731-3, 54736, 54743-6, 54751-5, 54778-81, 54784

3C279 54789-92, 54799-804, 54863-4, 54878-85, 54893-4

PKS1454-354 54713-4

PKS1502+106 54688-9, 54714-6, 54852-4, 54874-6, 54878

PKS1510-089 54712, 54721-4, 54727-32, 54840-58, 54888, 54899

PKS2155-304 54707

3c454.3 54695-709, 54714-45

Indicative numbers that will depend on the threshold

γ-ray LC: IACTIACT telescopes : HESS, VERITAS & MAGIC → uncomplete coverage → very few example of flares detected (Mrk 421, 3c66A/B, PKS2155-304…)

Wcomae: Flares detected by veritas 54537-40 and 54623-27

Time variable analysisMethod: unbinned search using a likelihood ratio (Garo’s method)

,

,1,,log

ibkg

ibkgs

iisigs

P

PNntP

Nn

eventN

1i

itimeidiriisig tPPtP ,,, 1,, Liibkg TP Noise

:Signal:

bkgi

bkgsigi

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eventN

1i

Optimization in order to find the mimimum neutrino flux to have a 3 (5)sigma discovery

Only up-going multiline events (2008 data ~70.3 days)

Time variable analysis (3)Use 2 reconstruction algorithms: BBFit / AAFit

Angres vs E: AAFit + BBFit

Warning: old MC (run 37218) + old AAFit (without inter line time offstet)

PSF

!

Likelihood ratio: expected results

Expected results

(Too optimistic)

Only up-going multiline events (2008 data ~70.3 days)

Expected results

(Too optimistic)

Only up-going multiline events (2008 data ~70.3 days)

GRB

AGN

Expected results

5σ

3σ

Improvement :Flare(3d) ~0.4-0.5 * No timingFlare(0.1d)~0.2 * No timing

Only up-going multiline events (2008 data ~70.3 days)

SummaryTime variable analysis is working using BBFit or AAFit reconstructions with the 12L data in 2008

To do: - Check the determination of the flare periods - Extend to the 2009-10 data

- Extension: GRB analysis (2D PSF azimut anisotropy of the detector response) Search of periodicity (microquasar, SS443, LS5139, GX339…)

Shared worked

8 or 9 sources are in both analysis

Flares determination: - Catalogue X-ray (Swift…) γ-ray (Fermi) - Light curve analysis