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Page 1: Timeline of the Far Future

Timeline of the far future 1

Timeline of the far future

Illustration of a black hole. Most models of the far future of the Universe suggest thateventually, these will be the only remaining celestial objects.

While predictions of the future can neverbe absolutely certain, present scientificunderstanding in various fields hasallowed a projected course for thefarthest future events to be sketched out,if only in the broadest strokes. Thesefields include astrophysics, which hasrevealed how planets and stars form,interact and die; particle physics, whichhas revealed how matter behaves at thesmallest scales, and plate tectonics,which shows how continents shift overmillennia.

All predictions of the future of the Earth,the Solar System and the Universe mustaccount for the second law ofthermodynamics, which states thatentropy, or a loss of the energy availableto do work, must increase over time.[1] Stars must eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel and burn out;close encounters will gravitationally fling planets from their star systems, and star systems from galaxies.[2]

Eventually, matter itself will come under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials breakapart into subatomic particles.[3] However, as current data suggest that the Universe is flat, and thus will not collapsein on itself after a finite time,[4] the infinite future potentially allows for the occurrence of a number of massivelyimprobable events, such as the formation of a Boltzmann brain.[5]

These timelines cover events from roughly eight thousand years from now to the farthest reaches of future time. Anumber of alternate future events are listed to account for questions still unresolved, such as whether humanssurvive, whether protons decay or whether the Earth will be destroyed by the Sun's expansion into a red giant.

Key

Table keys

Event is determined via

Astronomy and astrophysics

Geology and planetary science

Particle physics

Mathematics

Technology and culture

Page 2: Timeline of the Far Future

Timeline of the far future 2

Future of the Earth, the Solar System and the Universe

Years from now Event

36,000 The small red dwarf star Ross 248 passes within 3.024 light years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[6]

42,000 Alpha Centauri becomes the nearest star system to the Sun once more as Ross 248 recedes.[6]

50,000 The current interglacial ends, according to the work of Berger and Loutre,[7] sending the Earth back into a glacial periodof the current ice age, assuming limited effects of anthropogenic global warming.

Niagara Falls erodes away the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie and ceases to exist.[8]

50,000 The length of the day used for astronomical timekeeping reaches about 86,401 SI seconds, thanks to lunar tides brakingthe Earth's rotation. Under the present-day timekeeping system, a leap second will need to be added to the clock everyday.[9]

100,000 The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which is the result of their movement through the galaxy, rendersmany of the constellations unrecognisable.[10]

The hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will have likely exploded in a hypernova.[11]

100,000 Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of magma.[12]

250,000 Lōʻihi, the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, rises above the surface of the ocean andbecomes a new volcanic island.[13]

500,000 Earth will have likely been hit by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming it cannot be averted.[14]

1 million Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma; an eventcomparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.[12]

1 million Highest estimated time until the red supergiant star Betelgeuse explodes in a supernova. The explosion is expected to beeasily visible in daylight.[15][16]

1.4 million The star Gliese 710 passes as close as 1.1 light years to the Sun before moving away. This may gravitationally perturbmembers of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing thelikelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.[17]

8 million The moon Phobos comes within 7,000 km of Mars, the Roche limit, at which point tidal forces will disintegrate themoon and turn it into a ring of orbiting debris that will continue to spiral in toward the planet.[18]

10 million The widening East African Rift valley is flooded by the Red Sea, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent ofAfrica.[19]

11 million The ring of debris around Mars hits the surface of the planet.[18]

50 million The Californian coast begins to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench due to its northward movement along the SanAndreas Fault.[20]

Africa's collision with Eurasia closes the Mediterranean Basin and creates a mountain range similar to theHimalayas.[21]

100 million Earth will have likely been hit by a meteorite comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 65 millionyears ago.[22]

230 million Beyond this time, the orbits of the planets become impossible to predict.[23]

240 million From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic center.[24]

250 million All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have beendubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, and Pangaea Ultima.[25][26]

Page 3: Timeline of the Far Future

Timeline of the far future 3

500-600 million Estimated time until a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth;close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesisis correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernovawould have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.[27]

600 million Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.[28]

600 million The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate-silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering ofsurface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocksharden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop. Without volcanoes to recycle carbon into the Earth'satmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.[29] By this time, they will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis isno longer possible. All plants that utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of present-day species) will die.[30]

800 million Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.[30] Multicellular life diesout.[31]

1 billion[32] The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of 47°C. Theatmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[33] Pockets of watermay still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[34][35]

1.3 billion Eukaryotic life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.[31]

1.5–1.6 billion The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide increases inMars's atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.[31][36]

2.3 billion Time until the Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.[37][38]

Without its liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field shuts down.[39]

2.8 billion Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of 147°C. At this point life, now reduced to unicellularcolonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely dieout.[29][40][41]

3 billion Median point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's axial tilt.As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme.[42]

3.3 billion 1 percent chance that Mercury's orbit may become so elongated as to collide with Venus, sending the inner Solar Systeminto chaos and potentially leading to a planetary collision with Earth.[43]

3.5 billion Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.[44]

3.6 billion Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring systemsimilar to Saturn's.[45]

4 billion Median point by which the Andromeda Galaxy will have collided with the Milky Way, which will thereafter merge toform a galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda".[46] Due to the vast distances between stars, the Solar System is not expected to beaffected by this collision.[47]

5.4 billion With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a redgiant.[48]

7.5 billion Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding Sun.[36]

7.9 billion The Sun reaches the tip of the red giant branch, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.[48] Inthe process, Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth are destroyed.[49]

During these times, it is possible that Saturn's moon Titan could achieve surface temperatures necessary to supportlife.[50]

8 billion Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05 percent its present mass.[48][51][52][53]

14.4 billion Sun becomes a black dwarf as its luminosity falls below three trillionths its current level, while its temperature falls to2239 K, making it invisible to human eyes.[54]

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Timeline of the far future 4

20 billion The end of the Universe in the Big Rip scenario, assuming a model of dark energy with w = -1.5.[55] Observations ofgalaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that this will not occur.[56]

50 billion Assuming both survive the Sun's expansion, by this time the Earth and the Moon become tidelocked, with each showingonly one face to the other.[57][58] Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from thesystem, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.[59]

100 billion The Universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the Milky Way's Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic lighthorizon, removing them from the observable universe.[60]

150 billion The cosmic microwave background cools from its current temperature of ~2.7 K to 0.3 K, rendering it essentiallyundetectable with current technology.[61]

450 billion Median point by which the ~47 galaxies[62] of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy.[3]

800 billion Expected time when the net light emission from the combined Milkomeda galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf starspass through their "blue dwarf" stage of peak luminosity.[63]

1012 (1 trillion) Low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need toform stars.[3]

The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwavebackground by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bangundetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study ofhypervelocity stars.[60]

3×1013 (30 trillion) Estimated time for the black dwarf Sun to undergo a close encounter with another star in the local Solar neighborhood.Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentiallyejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star, the longer it takes to beejected in this manner, because stars rarely pass so closely.[64]

1014 (100 trillion) High estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies.[3] This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era tothe Degenerate Era; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.[2]

1.1–1.2×1014

(110–120 trillion)Time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, havelifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).[3] After this point, the only stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants(white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes). Brown dwarfs also remain.[3]

1015 (1 quadrillion) Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in the Solar System from their orbits.[3]

By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above absolute zero.[65]

1019 to 1020 Estimated time until brown dwarfs and stellar remnants are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enoughto each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeatedencounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This processeventually causes the galaxy to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.[3][66]

1020 Estimated time until the Earth's orbit around the Sun decays via emission of gravitational radiation,[67] if the Earth isneither first engulfed by the red giant Sun a few billion years from now[68][69] nor subsequently ejected from its orbitby a stellar encounter.[67]

2×1036 The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes its smallest possiblevalue (8.2×1033 years).[70][71][71]

3×1043 Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the proton half-life takes the largest possiblevalue, 1041 years,[3] assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryonspredominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay.[71][71] By this time, if protons do decay, theBlack Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.[2][3]

1065 Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects like rocks to rearrange their atoms and moleculesvia quantum tunneling. On this timescale all matter is liquid.[67]

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Timeline of the far future 5

1.7×10106 Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawkingprocess.[72] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters theDark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their finalenergy state.[2][3]

101500 Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all baryonic matter has either fused together to form iron-56 ordecayed from a higher mass element into iron-56.[67] (see iron star)

[73] Low estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, assuming no proton decay.[67] Subsequent BlackHole Era and transition to the Dark Era are, on this timescale, instantaneous.

Estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.[5]

Estimated time for random quantum fluctuations to generate a new Big Bang, according to Caroll and Chen.[74]

High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into black holes, again assuming no proton decay.[67]

High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its final energy state.[5]

Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing an isolated blackhole of stellar mass.[75] This time assumes a statistical model subject to Poincaré recurrence. A much simplified way ofthinking about this time is that in a model in which history repeats itself arbitrarily many times due to properties ofstatistical mechanics, this is the time scale when it will first be somewhat similar (for a reasonable choice of "similar") toits current state again.

Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing a black hole withthe mass within the presently visible region of the Universe.[75]

Scale of an estimated Poincaré recurrence time for the quantum state of a hypothetical box containing a black hole withthe estimated mass of the entire Universe, observable or not, assuming Linde's chaotic inflationary model with aninflaton whose mass is 10−6 Planck masses.[75]

Astronomical eventsThis is a list of extremely rare astronomical events after the beginning of the 11th millennium AD (Year 10,001)

Years fromnow

Date Event

8,000 — Earth's axial precession makes Deneb the North star.[76]

8,650 years,175 days

20 August,10,663 AD

A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.[77]

8,706 years,309 days

10,720 AD The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.[77]

9,255 years,181 days

25 August,11,268 AD

A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.[77]

9,562 years,2 days

28 February,11,575 AD

A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.[77]

10,000 — The Gregorian calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Sun's position in the sky.[78]

11,412 years,203 days

17 September13,425 AD

A near-simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.[77]

12,000–13,000 — The Earth's axial precession will make Vega the North Star.[79][80]

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Timeline of the far future 6

13,000 — By this point, halfway through the precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be reversed, causing summerand winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the northernhemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, willbe even more extreme, as it will be facing towards the Sun at Earth's perihelion and away from the Sun ataphelion.[80]

13,219 years,39 days

5 April,15,232 AD

A simultaneous total solar eclipse and transit of Venus.[77]

13,777 years,53 days

20 April,15,790 AD

A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.[77]

18,860 years,309 days

20,874 AD The lunar Islamic calendar and the solar Gregorian calendar will share the same year number. After this,the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.[81]

27,000 – The eccentricity of Earth's orbit will reach a minimum, 0.00236 (it is now 0.01671).[82][83][84]

36,159 years,218 days

October,38,172 AD

A transit of Uranus from Neptune, the rarest of all planetary transits.[85][86]

46,888 years,3 days

1 March,48,901 AD

The Julian calendar (365.25 days) and Gregorian calendar (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.[87][88]

65,159 years,310 days

67,173 AD The planets Mercury and Venus will both cross the ecliptic at the same time.[77]

67,150 years,150 days

26 July,69,163 AD

A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.[77]

222,495 years,30 days

27 and 28March,224,508 AD

Respectively, Venus and then Mercury will transit the Sun.[77]

569,727 years,310 days

571,741 AD A simultaneous transit of Venus and the Earth as seen from Mars[77]

Spacecraft and space explorationTo date five spacecraft (Voyagers 1 and 2, Pioneers 10 and 11 and New Horizons) are on trajectories which will takethem out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an unlikely collision, the craft should persistindefinitely.[89]

Yearsfrom now

Event

10,000 Pioneer 10 passes within 3.8 light years of Barnard's Star.[89]

25,000 The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, reaches its destination, the globular clusterMessier 13.[90] This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. Assuming a similar mode ofcommunication is employed, it should take at least as long again for any reply to reach Earth.

40,000 Voyager 1 passes within 1.6 light years of AC+79 3888, a star in the constellation Camelopardalis.[91]

50,000 The KEO space time capsule, if it is launched, will reenter Earth's atmosphere.[92]

296,000 Voyager 2 passes within 4.3 light years of Sirius, the brightest star in the night sky.[91]

300,000 Pioneer 10 passes within 3 light years of Ross 248.[93]

2 million Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.[94]

4 million Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.[94]

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Timeline of the far future 7

8 million The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any farfuture descendants of humanity, and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.[95]

Technology and culture

Years fromnow

Event

10,000 Estimated lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clockof the Long Now, the Rosetta Project, and the Long Bet Project.[96]

10,000 The end of humanity, according to Brandon Carter's Doomsday argument, which assumes that half of the humans who willever have lived have already been born.[97]

100,000 – 1million

According to Michio Kaku, time by which humanity will be a Type III civilization, capable of harnessing all the energy of thegalaxy.[98]

5–50 million Time by which the entire galaxy could be colonised, even at sublight speeds.[99]

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University. . Retrieved 3 December 2011.[2] Adams, Fred; Laughlin, Greg (1999). The Five Ages of the Universe. New York: The Free Press. ISBN 978-0-684-85422-9.[3] Adams, Fred C.; Laughlin, Gregory (April 1997). "A dying universe: the long-term fate and evolution of astrophysical objects". Reviews of

Modern Physics 69 (2): 337–372. arXiv:astro-ph/9701131. Bibcode 1997RvMP...69..337A. doi:10.1103/RevModPhys.69.337.[4] Komatsu, E.; Smith, K. M.; Dunkley, J. et al. (2011). "Seven-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations:

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[5] Linde, Andrei. (2007). "Sinks in the Landscape, Boltzmann Brains and the Cosmological Constant Problem" (http:/ / www. iop. org/ EJ/abstract/ 1475-7516/ 2007/ 01/ 022). Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics (subscription required) 2007 (1): 022.arXiv:hep-th/0611043. Bibcode 2007JCAP...01..022L. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2007/01/022. . Retrieved 26 June 2009.

[6] Matthews, R. A. J. (Spring 1994). "The Close Approach of Stars in the Solar Neighborhood". The Royal Astronomical Society QuarterlyJournal 35 (1): 1. Bibcode 1994QJRAS..35....1M.

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Graphical timelinesFor graphical, logarithmic timelines of these events see:• Graphical timeline of the universe (to 8 billion years from now)• Graphical timeline of the Stelliferous Era (to 1020 years from now)• Graphical timeline from Big Bang to Heat Death (to 101000 years from now)

References

Page 11: Timeline of the Far Future

Article Sources and Contributors 11

Article Sources and ContributorsTimeline of the far future  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=537231399  Contributors: 420Ainsley, 7updancers, A. di M., Afkatk, Agentnj, Alexkorn, Arcandam, Arsenikk,Arthurfragoso, Auric, AxelBoldt, Bamse, Bensin, Boyd888, Br'er Rabbit, Canoe1967, Chrism, Courcelles, Crisco 1492, Crosaldo, D.M. from Ukraine, DVdm, Delusion23, Denisarona, Dex1337,Diannaa, Drilnoth, Dstroy, EagerToddler39, Ego White Tray, Elockid, Eltommonator, Emonathon, Excirial, Florian Blaschke, Furries, GavinTing, Gbestnorniron, Geary, Gillespie09, GoingBatty,Graeme Bartlett, Hairy Dude, Hans Dunkelberg, Headbomb, Hunor-Koppany, Hurricanehink, Hvn0413, IP.D, Incnis Mrsi, JErEmYsHuLeR2, Jncraton, Joe Kress, John Smith 104668, John ofReading, Kordas, Kuzey457, LikeLakers2, Lolador27, Lonjers, LordZanny, Matma Rex, Maxim, Mike Rosoft, Mojoworker, Monty845, Nat682, Nergaal, Niceguyedc, Nikola Smolenski, Olsjoh,P. S. Burton, PRRfan, Paul H., Pipatron, Pluto and Beyond, PortalandPortal2Rocks, PresN, RJHall, Rambo's Revenge, Ravenswing, Regulov, RexxS, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Robert Treat,RockMagnetist, Rolypolyman, Rothorpe, Rushbugled13, Ruslik0, STEV56, Scott Sanchez, Scwlong, Serendipodous, SkepticalRaptor, SkyMachine, Spacepotato, SudoGhost, Sun Creator,Tamfang, This, that and the other, Tobias Bergemann, Tritium6, Trongphu, Tyler Hruby, Vrenator, WebTV3, Webclient101, Wellthatisgr8, Widr, Woupsi, Yair rand, Yqttiuowr, Zerbu, Σ, 163anonymous edits

Image Sources, Licenses and ContributorsFile:BlackHole.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:BlackHole.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Holycharly, KShiger, Keraunoscopia, Mattes, Shellabella17,St0rm, TheDJ, Vanderdecken, 4 anonymous editsFile:Key.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Key.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Rugby471File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Five_Pointed_Star_Solid.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: Fry1989, Indolences, Kilom691,Ratatosk, Rocket000, Sarang, Waldir, 1 anonymous editsFile:Noun project 528.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Noun_project_528.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Saint Johann, SarahStierchFile:Psi2.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Psi2.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Arjen Dijksman, Badseed, Beao, Bouncey2k, Gdh, Herbythyme, Imz, JackPhoenix, KillOrDie, Nagy, Proteins, Remember the dot, Wutsje, 25 anonymous editsFile:PiCM200.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PiCM200.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Gennaro Prota, User:MelchoirFile:Aiga toiletsq men.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Aiga_toiletsq_men.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: AIGA

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