tinker, 2008 scott w. tinker president american association of petroleum geologists bureau of...
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Tinker, 2008
Scott W. TinkerScott W. TinkerPresidentPresident
American Association of Petroleum GeologistsAmerican Association of Petroleum Geologists
Bureau of Economic GeologyBureau of Economic GeologyJackson School of GeosciencesJackson School of GeosciencesThe University of Texas at AustinThe University of Texas at Austin
Workforce ObservationsWorkforce Observations
AAPGAAPGInternational Conference and ExhibitionInternational Conference and Exhibition
Cape Town, South AfricaCape Town, South AfricaOctober, 2008October, 2008
AAPGAAPGInternational Conference and ExhibitionInternational Conference and Exhibition
Cape Town, South AfricaCape Town, South AfricaOctober, 2008October, 2008
Tinker, 2008
DemographicsDemographics CyclesCycles Balance and BridgesBalance and Bridges
ObservationsObservationsObservationsObservations
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
0 5
10
15 20 25 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85 90
95
10
0
Age
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
m)
Age DemographicsAge DemographicsDeveloping NationsDeveloping Nations
Age DemographicsAge DemographicsDeveloping NationsDeveloping Nations
Source: UN Website
Brazil '03
Saudi '04
India '01
Mexico '03
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
m)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Russia '04
Age DemographicsAge DemographicsDeveloped NationsDeveloped Nations
Age DemographicsAge DemographicsDeveloped NationsDeveloped Nations
Source: UN Website
Age
France/UK '04
China '00
US '04
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
Age DemographicsAge DemographicsAge DemographicsAge Demographics
Source: UN Website
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
m)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Developed nations are “older”
Developed
Developing
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007
Geopolitical ShiftGeopolitical ShiftGeopolitical ShiftGeopolitical Shift
407 Q
Young
Old
Tinker, 2008
DemographicsDemographics CyclesCycles Balance and BridgesBalance and Bridges
ObservationsObservationsObservationsObservations
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Glo
bal
An
nu
al P
rod
uct
ion
(m
bo
)
World Oil Production (Thousand Barrels)
Global OilGlobal OilGlobal OilGlobal Oil
Source: 1980-2007 Energy Information Administration As of January 2008 (www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilreserves.xls ), 1950-1980 OPEC (http://www.opec.org/library/)
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00
$100.00
Oil
Pri
ce (
$20
07)
Oil Price Average in $/bbl Inflation Adjusted 2007
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Oil and EconomyOil and EconomyOil and EconomyOil and Economy
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
YearGD
P G
row
th (
% p
oin
ts a
t an
nu
al r
ate
s)
GDP Growth (Percentage points at annual rates)
Data: BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of Commerce
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Oil
Do
mes
tic
We
llh
ead
Pri
ce (
$200
7)
Crude Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2000)
Tinker, 2008
Energy-Economy CyclesEnergy-Economy CyclesEnergy-Economy CyclesEnergy-Economy Cycles
•Global oil demand/supply (D/S) is tight
•Currencies are strong or weak
•Speculators hedge against currencies by buying oil
•Tight D/S and speculation drive up the price of oil
•High price dampens energy demand
•Lower D/S, excess production capacity (short term), weak economy drive oil price down
•Global interdependence impacts global markets
•Lower oil prices help stabilize the economy
•and…
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Oil Price2000 $
Department of Geosciences,Department of Geosciences, University of TexasUniversity of Texas
Total MastersTotal MastersDepartment of Geosciences,Department of Geosciences, University of TexasUniversity of Texas
Total MastersTotal Masters
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Oil Price2000 $
Department of Geosciences,Department of Geosciences, University of TexasUniversity of Texas
Total Ph.D.sTotal Ph.D.sDepartment of Geosciences,Department of Geosciences, University of TexasUniversity of Texas
Total Ph.D.sTotal Ph.D.s
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
US Upstream R&D 2004 Dollars CERA
Compound CyclesCompound CyclesCompound CyclesCompound Cycles
Year
Data: BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of Commerce
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1.1 mm
1.7 mm
0.7 mm
Employees Large O&G Co
US
Un
der
gra
d E
nro
llm
ents
in
Geo
scie
nce
(10
00)
10
20
30
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Oil
Do
mes
tic
We
llh
ead
Pri
ce (
$200
7)
Tinker, 2008
DemographicsDemographics CyclesCycles Balance and BridgesBalance and Bridges
ObservationsObservationsObservationsObservations
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
No problemsat all
Very difficultor impossible
Difficultbut possible
18-24
25-34
35-4445-54
55+All
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent
HOW EASY IS IT TO MANAGE DUAL CAREERSIN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY?
18-24
25-3435-44
45-54
55+All
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+All
Age group
QAd6422From Chadud, N., Tealdi, L., Howe, S., and Sprunt, E., 2007, How companies attract and retain talented engineers whose spouses have careers, in Talent & Technology, v. 1, no. 4, p. 5–10.
Tinker, 2008
Goal: Reverse the trend of decreasing women in energy sciences throughout a full career
•Maintaining a science edge in the “part time” years
• Separating what we want to do from what we are willing to do
•Reverse discrimination
• Precedent setting and consistency of policies
•Avoiding flexibility dysfunction
Dual Career ChallengesDual Career ChallengesDual Career ChallengesDual Career Challenges
Tinker, 2008
Complex global issues pose technological and social challenges requiring an integrated approach
Each sector has different time scales for decision making, and are motivated by different opportunities
Science, policy and commercialization are critical partners for the future
Bridge across the canyons and peaks
Industry, Government, Industry, Government, AcademeAcademe
Industry, Government, Industry, Government, AcademeAcademe
BridgeBridge
Tinker, 2008
Summary: It Takes a Team!Summary: It Takes a Team!Summary: It Takes a Team!Summary: It Takes a Team!
Student!
Industry!
Policy Maker!
Tinker, 2008
Fossil fuels are essential for many Fossil fuels are essential for many decadesdecades
Price volatility is likely; must enjoy Price volatility is likely; must enjoy changechange
Global demographics are evolvingGlobal demographics are evolving
Talent is the fundamental priorityTalent is the fundamental priority
Summary ConceptsSummary ConceptsSummary ConceptsSummary Concepts
Government/industry/academe Government/industry/academe must work together to bridge must work together to bridge across the cycles in order to across the cycles in order to
create a stable environment that create a stable environment that attracts and retains the best attracts and retains the best
talent in the world.talent in the world.
Tinker, 2008Tinker, 2008
A career in the energy industry is A career in the energy industry is exciting, challenging, rewarding exciting, challenging, rewarding
and at times terrifying! and at times terrifying!
You cannot find a more You cannot find a more meaningful issue on which to meaningful issue on which to
work for the coming century than work for the coming century than global energy. Period.global energy. Period.
Get after it!Get after it!
A career in the energy industry is A career in the energy industry is exciting, challenging, rewarding exciting, challenging, rewarding
and at times terrifying! and at times terrifying!
You cannot find a more You cannot find a more meaningful issue on which to meaningful issue on which to
work for the coming century than work for the coming century than global energy. Period.global energy. Period.
Get after it!Get after it!http://www.great-lakes.net/teach/history/macbridge/mac_2.html