to agree or not to agree?ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/tes_briefing27... · 2015. 8....
TRANSCRIPT
To Agree or Not to Agree?
New insights and questions arising from
TRANSWORLD Elites Survey
European External Action Service, Brussels, 1st July 2014
TRANSWORLD Elites Survey (TES):
an overview Sample: 2,014 elites
• 295 Opinion leaders (Trade unions, Academics, Think tanks, media);
• 316 Political leaders (MEPs, MPs);
• 1,403 Business leaders – different sectors (small-medium size)
• 284-293 interviewed per country (France, Germany, Greece,
Italy, Poland, United Kingdom and the US).
Methodology: CATI (political and opinion leaders)/CAWI
(business leaders); Greek business leaders: mixed mode
CATI/CAWI.
Fieldwork: 6th September 2013 - 4th February 2014
Main findings & comparisons Main questions:
Divergence or convergence between US and EU?
EU internal cohesion? Focus on Greece, Germany, UK;
Are all elite the same? Focus on the business sector;
Is there a gap between mass and elites?
Thematic sections:
I. International Security & Use of Force
II. Global Economy & Eurozone
III. Special focus on China
IV. Global Environment and Climate Change
V. Human Rights and Democracy Promotion
Section I
International Security & Use of
force
Transatlantic partnership
The leadership of the transatlantic partner is
desirable …
76
98
67
76
64 65
43
56
88
96
43
57
83 77
64 69
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business General Public
Opinion Political Business General Public (EU5)
USA EU
Sources: TES 2014; TTS 2013
How desirable is it that the EU/the USA exerts strong leadership in world affairs? (%)
US Desirable
EU Desirable
Transatlantic partnership
The leadership of the transatlantic partner is
desirable …
57 60
65
36
52
61
70
79 75
88
82
67
78
70
64
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EU France Germany Greece Italy Poland UK USA
How desirable is it that the EU/the USA exerts strong leadership in world affairs? (% - weighted) US Desirable
EU Desirable
Transatlantic partnership
…But for different reasons: ‘burden sharing’
vs ‘more independence’
71 65
36 32 30 32 32
28
29 35
38
30
20 20
30 26
20 30 47 47 36 42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business General Public
Opinion Political Business General Public (EU5)
USA EU
Sources: TES 2014, TTS 2013
Do you think that partnership in security and diplomatic affairs between the EU/USA should …(%)
Take a more independent approach
Remain about the same
Become closer
Transatlantic partnership
NATO is still essential
71
83
46
54
68 72
51 55
19 10
27
31
25 22
33 34
10 7
20 14
7 4
12 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business General Public
Opinion Political Business General Public
USA EU
Sources: TES 2014, TTS 2013
Some people say that NATO is still essential to [COUNTRY] security.Others say it is no longer essential. Which view is closer to your own? (%) No Opinion
No longer essential
Still essential
Transatlantic partnership
Who is more Atlanticist?
10 6 11 11
5 5
45
33 28
43
95 95
43
60 62
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Index of Atlanticism (%) High Moderate Low
Transatlantic partnership
Who is more Atlanticist?
5 8 4
12 6
21 19
29
31 35
33
44
35
77 66 61 61 54 49 44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
USA Poland Germany UK Italy France Greece
Index of Atlanticism (%-weighted) High Moderate Low
Use of force
The Transatlantic Gap
79
65 64 64
81
90
59
68
85
77 80
83
49 48
38 35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass Opinion Political Business Mass
Economic power is more important in world affairs than military power
War necessary under some conditions
Sources: TES 2014; TTS 2013
Economic power is more important in world affairs than military power/Under some conditions, war is necessary to obtain justice (% of strongly/somewhat agree) USA
EU
Use of force
The Transatlantic Gap and Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
USA UK France Poland Italy Germany Greece
Under some conditions, war is necessary to obtain justice (% of strongly/somewhat agree – weighted)
Use of force
Hawks vs Doves?
US France Germany Greece Italy Poland UK
Pragmatists 45 37 31 14 35 32 49
Doves 20 39 51 75 45 48 21
Hawks 20 9 4 5 5 7 17
Isolationists 9 10 10 6 12 11 11
Section I. International security and use of force
Summary
Transatlantic partners desire strong leadership by each other…
…But for inherently different reasons: ‘burden sharing’(USA) v. ‘more independence’ (EU).
Atlanticism is still stable, but will likely weaken in (southern) Europe.
The business sector shows a lukewarm Atlanticism.
Force is never considered to be the first option…
… But transatlantic partners are ready to intervene when other measures fail, although the context always matters.
The USA (and the UK) shows a more pragmatic approach than the Europeans to the use of military force.
In US hawks/doves + pragmatists – in EU pragmatists and doves.
Section II
Global Economy & Euro
Transatlantic Economy
Economic integration: enthusiasm or
scepticism?
64 63
39
56 51
44
31 30 37
24 21
30
2 5 16
19 22 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
In the future, should the US and EU economies become more integrated with each other in trade and investment, remain at current levels of integration or be less interdependent? (%)
Become more integrated
Remain at current levels of integration
Be less interdependent
Transatlantic Economy
Economic integration: TTIP
74 68
49 52
71 70
54 57
10 8 11
36
9 12 15
30
10 13 14 16 14
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass Opinion Political Business Mass
USA EU
Sources: TES 2014, TTS 2013 (different question wording)
Which statement about the TTIP is closer to your own opinion? (%)
It will help our economy grow
It will have negative economic consequences It will make no difference
Transatlantic Economy
Economic integration: TTIP and Business
45
52 52 53
62 60
12
20
15 14 12
17
24
16
23 22
17
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Less than £90,000 (110,000€)
More than £90,000 to £450,000
(110,000/550,000€)
More than £450,000 to £1,800,000
(550,000/2,2mln€)
More than £1.8 million to £9 million
(2,2mln/11mln €)
More than £9 to £45 million (11mln/55mln€)
More than £45 million (55mln€)
Business leaders and the TTIP – by company turnover (%) It will help our economy grow
It will have negative economic consequences
It will make no difference
Global crisis and transatlantic recipes
‘Smart spending is better than cutting?’
5 8 6 8 5 8
74
63
56
75 75
62
2 5 8 7 4 13 12 10 3 7 7 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
What do you think the best policy option to stimulate growth would be? Should the [COUNTRY] government … (%)
Cut public spending and increase taxes
Invest in education, research and development
Enhance competitiveness through currency devaluation
Cut public spending and reduce taxes/taxes remain the same
European economy
Who likes the €uro?
79 75
53
44
38 40
38
16 15 18
27
51 50 50
37
75
4 3
15
2 6 3
17
3 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass Opinion Political Business Mass
EUROZONE NOT EUROZONE
Sources: TES 2014, TTS 2013
Generally speaking, do you think that membership in the Eurozone has been/would be a good or bad thing for [COUNTRY] economy? (%)
Good
Bad
It hasn’t made a difference
European economy (I.b)
Who likes the €uro: The Business
32
45 44
53 51
69
36
31 29 30 29
16 18 18
21
12 14
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Less than £90,000 (110,000€)
More than £90,000 to £450,000
(110,000/550,000€)
More than £450,000 to £1,800,000
(550,000/2,2mln€)
More than £1.8 million to £9 million
(2,2mln/11mln €)
More than £9 to £45 million (11mln/55mln€)
More than £45 million (55mln€)
Generally speaking, do you think that membership in the Eurozone has been/would be a good or bad thing for [COUNTRY] economy? (%)
Good
Bad
It hasn’t made a difference
Lineare (Good)
European economy
The appeal of national decision -making
48 42
37
28
48 53
58
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass
Source: TES 2014, TTS 2013
Some people say that because of recent economic difficulties, the EU should have more authority over member states’ economic and budgetary policies. Others say each member state should retain powers for economic decision making. Which view is closer to yo
EU institutions should have more authority over member states’ economic and budgetary policies
Each member state should retain powers for economic decision making
European economy
The appeal of national decision -making
21
32 34
53 53
61
73
63 61
43 43
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
UK Poland Greece France Italy Germany
Some people say that because of recent economic difficulties, the EU should have more authority over member states’ economic and budgetary policies. Others say each member state should retain powers for economic decision making. Which view is closer to yo
EU institutions should have more authority over member states’ economic and budgetary policies
Each member state should retain powers for economic decision making
Section II. Global and European economy
Summary
Overall, the EU and the US converge on greater transatlantic economic
integration, but …
The business sector (especially smaller companies) is rather lukewarm
on transatlantic economic integration and TTIP…
…and it shows little enthusiasm for the €uro.
With regard to the €uro, there is lack of cohesion within the EU;
There is a gap between masses and elites on the use of the single
currency;
Transatlantic leaders are attracted to a national level of decision making
on economic policies (especially in the EU).
EU and US leaders are confident on the potential of ‘smart’ investments
to get out of the financial crisis.
Section III
Special focus on China:
a rising actor in the global governance?
A pivot to China?
Looking towards the East
33
45
32
51
64 65
42
69
60
43
56
38
30
24
48
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass Opinion Political Business Mass
USA EU
Sources: TES 2014, TTS 2013* (*combines SPLIT questions)
In terms of [COUNTRY’s] national interests, which of the following is more important to our [COUNTRY]? (%)
EU countries/The USA
Asian countries/China
A pivot to China?
Looking towards the East
86 90
57
70 70
54 50
55
25
33
42
36
90
83
57
80 76
65
33
15 17
37 36 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU elites
How influential will each of the following countries and institutiosn be in 2020?Very influential influential not influential at all? (% of very influential- India, Brazil, Japan not displayed)
USA EU China Russia
Who’s afraid of China?
A focus on business elites
50
38
18
54
50
39
19 18
42
16 13
27
31
40
31
25
32 29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
There are different views about the rise of China. In economic terms, do you see China more as an opportuniy for new markets and investments, or rather as a threat to our jobs and economic security? (%)
China represents more of an economic opportunity
China represents more of an economic threat
Both
Section III. Special focus on China
Summary
China is seen as more important than the transatlantic ally by the US
elites and the EU business sector…
…while EU/US masses still look more towards the transatlantic partner.
There is a shared consensus among transatlantic leaders about the future
influence of China.
The Chinese military power is (increasingly) seen as a threat by US elites
…
…while the economic power is not threatening…
…except for the masses, the US business sector and part of the EU
business sector.
Section IV
Global environment & Climate Change
A common, shared commitment
The US and EU share a common commitment to the
protection of the environment
74
88
67
81 79 74
3 9 7 6 14
26
10
20
12 14 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Do you agree with the following statement: EU countries/the US should do as much as they can even if the others do less (to protect global environment) (%)
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
A common, shared commitment?
A commitment tainted by partisanship
91
51
61
89
75
66
80
61 63
90 86
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Democrats Republicans Independent/others Left Centre Right
USA EU
Statements on commitment to global environment, by left/right (% of agree – weighted)
EU countries/the US should do as much as they can
Existing treaties are not effectively enforced
Actors in global environmental issues
Who should decide?
21
38
33
15 14
19
11 9
16 17 20 20
13 11
21
57
40 37
59 61
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Would you tell me whether policies in the area of environment protection should be decided by …? (%)
National government/the US
The EU (EU only)
EU and US together
International organisations such as the UN, the G20 or the IMF
Addressing global environmental challenges
Environment vs global interests?
76
60 63
83 78
70
5
15
5 9
18
24
33
18
11 10 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Do you agree with the following statement: The environment should be protected, even if it causes slower economic growth (%)
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Addressing global environmental challenges
Environment vs global interests: the political
cleavage
84
40
63
87
75
64
2 13 13
7 14 14 12
48
24
5 10
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Democrats Republicans Independent/others Left Centre Right
USA EU
Do you agree with the following statement: The environment should be protected, even if it causes slower economic growth (% - weighted), by left-right
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Section IV. Global environment and climate change
Summary
The EU and the US elites seem to converge on:
1. A commitment to environmental protection
2. The means to address the global environment
3. The effects of measures to address GHG emissions
But, behind the (apparent) consensus, environmental policies are
likely affected by political cleavages (especially in the US).
Transatlantic elites believe that all actors should do their part to
address global environmental challenges…
…but they are divided on the differing responsibilities by richer and
poorer countries.
Section V
Human rights & Democracy promotion
Should we promote democracy?
The balance between asserted ideals and
realist imperatives
62 65
29
37
62 67
56
68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Mass 2011 Opinion Political Business Mass 2011
USA EU
Do you agree with the statement: it should be the role of the EU/USA to help establish democracy in other countries? (%)
How far should we go?
Are all ‘rogue’ states the same?
38
53
19
56 58
47
36
48
20
47 50
42
33 35
15
32 34 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Do you agree with the statement: it should be the role of the EU/USA to help establish democracy in other countries? Do you agree even if … (% of strongly/somewhat agree)
Agree even if undemocratic but friendly
Agree even if it is likely that those countries would oppose EU/US policies
Agree even if it is likely that this would result in these countries electing Islamic fundamentalist leaders
Reasons for – the ‘Why’
The balance between asserted ideals and realist
imperatives – Ideals vs Economic interests
69
80 74
66 69
66
21
13 16
26 21
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Some people say that the EU/US should limit their economic relations with countries that have no respect for human rights. Others say that human rights should not affect economic relations between the EU and these countries. Which one of these positions d
The EU/US should limit its economic relations with countries that have no respect for human rights
Human rights records should not affect economic relations between the EU/US and these countries
Who should decide on HR & Democracy Promotion?
17
8
27
11 9 15
9 7
15 14
28 22
12 9
18
64 63
43
67 71
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opinion Political Business Opinion Political Business
USA EU
Would you tell me whether policies in the area of Human right and democracy promotion should be decided by …? (%)
National government/the US
the EU
EU and US together
International organisations such as the UN, the G20 or the IMF
Section V. Human Rights and Democracy Promotion
Summary
There is no common understanding among EU/US leaders (and within the EU) about
the main priorities and challenges for HR & DP (i.e. the ‘what’)
Leaders assert in principle that democracy promotion is a US/EU commitment, but
when interests are at stake elites are less ready to intervene
Economic relations with human right abusers should be limited …at least in principle
(i.e. the ‘why’).
As for the tools, beyond the use of force:
Transatlantic leaders show a lukewarm support for negative/positive incentives;
They also support measures of persuasion like diplomatic pressure;
EU leaders are decidedly favourable to capacity building instruments.
Policy implications: competitiveness, cooperation or, rather, complementarity between
EU/USA on democracy promotion?
Thank you for your attention