(to be completed by applicant - the following author(s) request … · 2011-05-13 · author...
TRANSCRIPT
Author Request (To be completed by applicant) - The following author(s) request authority to disclose the following presentation in the MORSS Final Report, for inclusion on the MORSS CD and/or posting on the MORS web site.
Name of Principal Author and all other author(s):
Principal Author’s Organization and address: Phone: (703) 588-6950_
Fax:__(703) 588-8776__
Email: [email protected]
Original title on 712 A/B: __The Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit (AFSAT) __
Revised title: Survivability & Vulnerability Impacts on Mission and Campaign Outcomes: The Role of the AFSAT [accepted for WG 9]
Presented in (input and Bold one): (WG_9_, CG___, Special Session ___, Poster, Demo, or Tutorial):
This presentation is believed to be:UNCLASSIFIED AND APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
73rd MORSS CD Cover PageUNCLASSIFIED DISCLOSURE FORM CD Presentation
Please complete this form 712CD as your cover page to your electronic briefing submission to the MORSS CD. Do not fax to the MORS office.
21-23 June 2005, at US Military Academy, West Point, NY
712CDFor office use only 41205
Sharon R. NicholsGeorge E. Crowder
AFSAA/SAAT1570 Air Force PentagonWashington, DC 20330-1570
Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188
Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering andmaintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information,including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, ArlingtonVA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if itdoes not display a currently valid OMB control number.
1. REPORT DATE 21 JUN 2005
2. REPORT TYPE N/A
3. DATES COVERED -
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Survivability & VulnerabilityImpacts on Mission and CampaignOutcomes: The Role of the AFSAT
5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) AFSAA/SAAT 1570 Air Force Pentagon Washington, DC 20330-1570
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBER
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S)
11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S)
12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES See also ADM201946, Military Operations Research Society Symposium (73rd) Held in West Point, NY on21-23 June 2005., The original document contains color images.
14. ABSTRACT
15. SUBJECT TERMS
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
SAR
18. NUMBEROF PAGES
24
19a. NAME OFRESPONSIBLE PERSON
a. REPORT unclassified
b. ABSTRACT unclassified
c. THIS PAGE unclassified
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
2
Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Survivability & VulnerabilityImpacts on Mission and Campaign Outcomes: The Role of the AFSAT
Sharon NicholsGeorge Crowder (Ctr)AFSAA/SAAT
3I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Outline
AFSAT
SURVIAC
Engineering & Engagement Level Analysis for Survivability & Vulnerability (S&V)
S&V Impacts on Mission Level Analysis
S&V Impacts on Campaign Level Analysis
Consistent Scenarios, CONOPS, and Approach
AFSAT Value Added
4I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
The Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit (AFSAT)Foundational set of AF analytic community (AFAC) accepted modeling and simulation (M&S) tools
Stand-alone, data driven constructive simulationsUser picked, well understood, formally evaluated (stamp of approval)Use of AFSAT tools encouraged
GoalsImprove consistency and quality of AF analysesStandardize model management, configuration management, VV&A, etc. best practices across the AF analytic communityProvide framework for analytic M&S capability investments
OversightAFAC Steering Group provides direction and guidanceAFSAA/SAA – executive agentSubject Matter Expert model managers (MM) responsible for individual models
AFSATWhat is it?
5I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Background: Why Created?Answering the Questions Without an Analysis Toolkit
CAMPAIGN
MISSION
ENGAGEMENT
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
Numerous Analysis ToolsCampaignMission EngagementEngineeringSpecialty Models
THUNDER CFAM - CTEM COMBAT IV
ITEM CEM VIC METRICOME IV FORCES TAM TACWAR
SUPPRESSOR SWEG EADSIM ADSIMSTRAPEM STRIKER ATCOM FORCES
MADPAS NABEM SPECT8 CIMUL8 SPEED88ADEM COMMANDER COMO-T EADTB FLAMES
SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS
Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM
SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models
MandatesData Standards
AccreditationVV&A
Analysis
IssuesNon-DefendableNon-StandardDuplicative
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP JTEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
AFSAT Approach
MISSIONMISSION
CAMPAIGNCAMPAIGN
ENGAGEMENTENGAGEMENT
Analysis
AF Analyses BenefitsLife cycle costs lowered via reduced duplication of cap-ability via enabling reuse
Results analytically moreconsistent
7I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
SURVIACSurvivability/Vulnerability IAC
DoD sponsored Information Analysis Center (IAC)
DoD’s institution for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating scientific and technical information (STI) related to all aspects of survivability and lethality for aircraft, ground vehicles, ships and spacecraft, to conventional homeland security threats including chemical, biological, directed energy, and non–lethal weapons.
Contractor operated, DoD sponsored service available to all government and industry users to provide studies, analyses, datagathering, and other operational, and logistics requirements related to survivability and lethality technologies.
Includes maintenance and distribution of approved set of models and simulations used to evaluate survivability and vulnerability.
8I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
AFSAT and SURVIAC M&SHow are they related?
SURVIAC AFSATEngagementLevel Models
JSEMJSEMBRAWLERBRAWLER
MILMIL--AASPEMAASPEMRADGUNSRADGUNS
ESAMSESAMSTRAPTRAP
AIRADEALARM
BLUEMAXBRL-CADCOVART
DIMEFATEPENFASTGEN
IVIEWLELAWSTRACES
MOSAICSHAZAMJTEAM
9I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
SURVIAC
Aircraft SurvivabilityWhere the Rubber Meets the Road
Work backwards—understand the physics and effects
SURVIAC
GERALD BENNETT, SURVIAC
10I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
TRAP
MIL AASPEM II
RADGUNSTEAM
ESAMS
Brawler
Survivability & VulnerabilityEngineering & Engagement Level Analysis
•Discrete Events•Engagement-Level•Stochastic Tools•Impact of:
TacticsCountermeasuresStealthWeapons TechnologySensors
11I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Engineering-LevelThe Munitions: Endgame
Terminal effectiveness of fragmenting munitions 3D terminal-encounter simulation
Last few milliseconds (fuzing/warhead interaction)
Calculates aerial target kill by threat missile (Pkss)
Accounts For Major Damage Mechanisms
Direct HitExternal BlastWarhead Frag
SHAZAM MECA
SESTEMSCAN
SCANMODJSEMAJEM
Sample Tools You May Encounter
TOM WASMUND, JTCG/ME JTCG/ASKEVIN R. CROSTHWAITE, SURVIAC
12I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Engineering-LevelSummary
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELSDR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School
13I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Engagement-LevelAggregating Engineering-Level to Few-v-Few
14I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Engagement-LevelSurface-to-Air Missile
ESAMSDISAMS
(special case)JTEAM
Sample Tools You May Encounter
CAPT JONATHAN FITTON, 453EWS/EWC
15I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Engagement-LevelFew-v-Few Summary
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS
Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM
SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models
DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School
16I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
TRAP
MIL AASPEM II
RADGUNSTEAM
ESAMSEADSIM
Suppressor
Brawler
FDEMOBSIM
Survivability & Vulnerability:Impacts on Mission Level Analysis
Confederation
•Airlift Capability •Tanker Deploy/EmployRequirements
•Logistics Flow
•Discrete Events•Mission-Level•Stochastic Tools•Impact of:
CONOPSTacticsC4ISRSensorsTMD
17I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
•ESAMS Version 2.8•F-22 4012•F-35 235-1.1•All aspect/altitudes
OUTPUT:•Pk of blue platforms vs. SAMs
and AAA
Engagement Level Study•SA-10/20 RCS sensitivity
ESAMS
EADSIM
Suppressor
ESAMS, RADGUNS and JTEAMInput to EADSIM & Suppressor
RADGUNSTEAM
18I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Mission-LevelMany-on-Many
DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School
EADSIMSUPPRESSOR
JIMM
Sample Tools You May Encounter
EADSIM
19I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Mission-LevelMany-v-Many Summary
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS
Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM
SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models
DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School
SUPPRESSOR SWEG EADSIM ADSIMSTRAPEM STRIKER ATCOM FORCES
MADPAS NABEM SPECT8 CIMUL8 SPEED88ADEM COMMANDER COMO-T EADTB FLAMES
20I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
TRAP
MIL AASPEM II
Thunder VH
JICM
RADGUNSTEAM
ESAMSEADSIM
Suppressor
Brawler
CFAM
SPAAT
FDEMOBSIM
Survivability & Vulnerability:Impacts on Campaign Level Analysis
SABSEL
Confederation
•Deterministic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR•Quick Look
•Stochastic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR/Logistics•Air/Sea/Gnd
•Optimized Linear•Air Campaign•TOA Constrained•Days, Attrition
•Optimized Linear•ISR Assets vs. reqs•TOA Constrained•Time, Cost
21I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
•2001 RT-2 MSFD•2001 RT-4 MSFD
Output to Campaign:•Encounter rate data•Attrition rate data •Weapon expenditure data
Mission Level Study:•Engagement Vulnerability
zones
Output to EADSIM:•Air-Air Pk•Weapons Effects•Surface-Air Pk
Thunder VH
RADGUNSTEAM
ESAMSEADSIM
Brawler
CFAM
EADSIMInput to THUNDER & CFAM
22I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
S&V Impact AnalysisConsistent Scenario, CONOPS & Data Set
To answer high level questionsto show the impact of S&V,Analyst must use • Same scenario• CONOPS• Data setsfor all levels of M&S and datageneration.
TRAP
MIL AASPEM II
Thunder VH
JICM
RADGUNSTEAM
ESAMSEADSIM
Suppressor
Brawler
CFAM
SPAAT
FDEMOBSIM
SABSEL
Confederation
•Deterministic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR•Quick Look
•Stochastic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR/Logistics•Air/Sea/Gnd
•Optimized Linear•Air Campaign•TOA Constrained•Days, Attrition
•Optimized Linear•ISR Assets vs. reqs•TOA Constrained•Time, Cost
23I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Campaign LevelSummary
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS
Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM
SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models
SUPPRESSOR SWEG EADSIM ADSIMSTRAPEM STRIKER ATCOM FORCES
MADPAS NABEM SPECT8 CIMUL8 SPEED88ADEM COMMANDER COMO-T EADTB FLAMES
THUNDER CTEM COMBAT IV
ITEM CEM VIC METRICOME IV FORCES TAM TACWAR
24I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
AFSAT Value AddedSummary
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
Air Force Standard Analysis Tool KitAir Force Standard Analysis Tool Kit
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELSHUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM
TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM
SEAS SMAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS
SPAAT
Air Force Standard Analysis Tool KitAir Force Standard Analysis Tool Kit
• AF Analytic Community approved set of M&S• Ability to demonstrate S&V impacts at
mission and campaign levels
AFSAT POCAFSAA/SAAT Sharon NicholsVoice: 703.588.6950 (DSN: 425)Email: [email protected]
SURVIAC POC46 OG/OGM/OL-AC/SURVIAC2700 D Street Bldg. 1661Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7605Voice: 937/255-3828, x285 (DSN:785)Email: [email protected]