to: town council and vail economic advisory council from ... 121614.… · • aspen • avon,...

To: Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council From: Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics Date: December 16, 2014 Subject: Mountain Travel Market Update

I. BACKGROUND Ralf Garrison will give an update on market conditions in the mountain resort industry to the Town Council, Vail Economic Advisory Council and the community.

II. ACTION REQUESTED OF COUNCIL Listen to the presentation and have an opportunity to ask questions of DestiMetrics. ATTACHMENTS Mountain Travel Market Update December 16, 2014

Property of V-TRiP LLC – All Rights Reserved – 303-772-7346 – www.v-trip.org – [email protected]

Presented by Ralf Garrison

Property of DestiMetrics | All Right Reserved | 303-772-7346 | www.destimetrics.com

Vail Town Council

Vail Economic Advisory CouncilMarket Update ~ Summer Wrap Up ~ Winter Outlook

http://www.mtrip.org/

mailto:[email protected]

Who We Are…

Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com [email protected] 303-722-7346 2

Destination Travel Marketing Services since 1984

1. Introduction

2. Situation Synopsis

3. Market Update - Econometrics

3. Summer 2014 Review

4. Winter 2014-15 Outlook

5. Discussion

Index

3Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com [email protected] 303-722-7346

MTNWEST

• Aspen

• Avon, Colorado

• Breckenridge

• Beaver Creek

• Copper

• Gunnison/Crested Butte

• Jackson Hole

• Keystone

• Mt Bachelor

• Mammoth Lakes

• North Lake Tahoe

• Snowmass

• Steamboat

• Park City Area

• Summit County, CO

• Telluride

• Vail

• Winter Park

http://www.jacksonholechamber.com/

http://www.jacksonholechamber.com/

http://www.destinationhotels.com/

http://www.destinationhotels.com/

http://www.coloradoski.com/

http://www.coloradoski.com/


Antlers at Vail

Arrabelle at Vail Square

Destination Resorts Vail

Vail Cascade Condos

Vail Cascade Resort & Spa

Evergreen Lodge at Vail

Four Seasons Resort Vail

Lion Square Lodge

Lodge at Lionshead

Lodge Tower

Manor Vail Resort

Montaneros

Sitzmark Lodge

Sonnenalp Resort of Vail

The Sebastian

The Wren

Tivoli Lodge

Vail International

Vail Mountain Lodge

Vail Racquet Club

Vail Spa Condominiums

Vail Marriott

The Lodge at Vail

The Ritz-Carlton Residences

Reports with data as of

November 30, 2014 represent:

24 properties representing 2,486 units

63% of total community census

Vail Participation


1. Introduction





5. Discussion

Index


8

Situation Assessment

Conditions which impact your

ability to do business over

which you have no

direct control.

Consumerism

Demographic Disparity

• Age Wave / Gender /Race

Mobile, Wearable Tech

Sharing Generation

Caution: Fragile, Fickle

Attractions

Destination Magnets

Ski/Board: Flat at 57m

Efforts to Grow/Retain

Summer: More Attractions

Growing Faster

on Smaller Base

Occasion Travel - Up

Conference - Down

Lodging

Key for Destinations

Hot, Warm, Cold…

Aging…

Rent By Owner: Sharing Economy Disintermediation

Caution: Regulations

1. Introduction





5. Discussion

Index


0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

17,828

5.8%

88.7

Dow Jones

Confidence

Unemployment

Confidence, The Dow & UnemploymentJan. ‘07 – November ‘14


Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com [email protected] 303.-722-7346 14

U.S. National Unemployment Rate

January 2008-November 2014

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Job

Cre

atio

n (

1,00

0's)

Nat

ion

al U

nem

plo

ymen

t R

ate

(%)

Jobs Created (1,000's)

National Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Housing Equity on the Rise

15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

Oct-…

Dec-…

Feb-…

Apr-…

Jun-…

Aug-…

S&P / Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index(March 2000 = 100)

Jun

e '0

6:

18

9

Mar

ch '1

2:

13

4 p

ts

Sep

t'1

4:1

68

pts

Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com [email protected] 303.-722-7346 16

U.S. Dollar Real Foreign Exchange RateJan ‘10 – Oct ‘14

60.00

65.00

70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

Ind

ex (

Mar

ch 1

973=

100)

Source: Federal Reserve. Results reflect US dollar against seven major currencies (real index, i.e. inflation-adjusted).

1. Introduction





5. Discussion

Index


18

Year over Year% Change in

NATIONALINDUSTRY-WIDE Vail

Occupancy

ADR

RevPAR

Summer 2014May – October

6% 4%

4%

11%

9%

13%

15%

4%

5%

5%

3%

7%

6%

2%

6%5%

6%

7%

6%6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

May 13 vs May 12 Jun 13 vs Jun 12 Jul 13 vs Jul 12 Aug 13 vs Aug 12 Sept 13 vs Sept 12 Oct 13 vs Oct 12 Summer Total

% C

han

ge in

Occ

up

. Rat

e &

AD

R

Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2013 vs 2012

Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2013 vs 2012

Data as of October 31, 2014

19

Market DemandIndustry Wide Summer 2014

Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com [email protected] 303-722-7346

1. Introduction





5. Discussion

Index


56% of revenue “on the books” as of 10/31/2015

56%

68% 76%73%

37%

58%

31%

50%

56% 56%

40%

11%

41%

33%

49%53% 52%

36%

10%

39%

-5%

1%5%

7%

13% 13%

6%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

November December January February March April Winter Total

Occ

up

ancy

Rat

e &

% C

hg

in O

ccu

p R

ate

Data as of November 30, 2014

Vail OccupancyWinter 2014/15


Industry:

$178

$578

$509

$494

$533

$314

$477

$161

$497

$464

$458 $4

79

$223

$421

$549

$478 $4

99

$493

$233

$443

11%

16%

10%

8%

11%

40%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700


Per

cen

t Ch

ang

e in

AD

R

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

ate

$


Vail Average Daily RateWinter 2014/15


Historic On the books

Industry:

$56

$288

$283

$278

$215

$34

$195

$53

$245

$246

$240

$171

$22

$163

$308 $3

24

$380

$360

$86

$255

5%

17%15% 16%

26%

58%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400


Per

cen

t Ch

ang

e in

Rev

PA

R

Re

ven

ue

Pe

r A

vaila

ble

Ro

om

$


Vail RevPARWinter 2014/15


Historic On the books

Industry:

-4.8

%

0.8

%

4.8

% 7.2

%

13

.1%

12

.7%

5.6

%

10

.8%

16

.5%

9.6

%

7.8

%

11

.2%

40

.3%

13

.3%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total

% C

han

ge in

Occ

up

ancy

/ A

DR

Percent Change in YTD Occ. Rate

Percent Change in YTD ADR


24

Vail Market DemandWinter 2014/15


7%

12%

6%

16%

7%

22%

10%

7% 7%

5% 5% 5%

18%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total

% C

han

ge in

Occ

up

. Rat

e &

AD

R

Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14

Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14

Preliminary Data as of November 30, 2014

25

Industry Market DemandWinter 2014/15


31%

50%

56%

56%

40%

11%

47%

47%

55%

54%

46%

13%

31%

47%

54%

50%

37%

13%

30%

44% 4

6%

48%

33%

12%

26%

44% 45%

47%

31%

11%

23%

42% 43%

46%

28%

9%

21%

41% 4

2%

45%

25%

8%

19%

40%

42%

38%

24%

7%

19%

38%

40%

37%

23%

7%

19%

35%

38%

34%

21%

7%

18%

35%

31% 32%

20%

5%

17%

34%

30%

32%

18%

4%

17%

34%

29%

29%

17%

4%

16%

33%

27%

24%

15%

4%

21%

39%

40%

38%

25%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

Occ

up

any

Rat

e %

Vail

Other Individual Destinations

All Destination Aggregate

Historic On the Books


26

Vail Multi-Destination Comparative Occupancy

November 2014-April 2015

Preliminary Data as of November 30, 2014

Vail 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR

28

-14.9%-17.9%

-12.3%

-7.7%

-3.0%

8.5%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08

% Chg Revenue vs 2007/08

Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR

29

-22.4%-25.0%

-19.1%-17.8%

-10.5%

-5.3%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08

% Chg Revenue vs 2007/08

WEATHER

Which is Most Reliable?

• Economic Forecasts?

• Weather Forecasts?

Wild Cards


31

Mapping our journey: Waypoints toward new realities

32

Thank You For Your Support!

Ralf [email protected]

Discussion

to: town council and vail economic advisory council from ... 121614.… · • aspen • avon,...

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