tobacco control policy the challenge of raising tobacco taxes global, regional and hungarian...

Tobacco Control PolicyThe Challenge of Raising Tobacco TaxesGlobal, Regional and Hungarian Experience By Ayda A. Yurekli, Ph.DWorld BankTobacco Dissemination Meeting, Budapest, Hungary 2001

Why is Raising Tobacco Taxes a Policy Challenge?

Tobacco taxes are NOT new taxesChallenging, becausePublic health wants higher taxes, andPolicy makers are worried about the consequences of higher taxes to the economy as a whole.

Why are higher taxes good for public health?Change Smoking BehaviorAs tax increases consumption decreases A 10% increase in price reduces consumption by:4% in developed countries, 8% in developing countries Poor and Youth are more sensitiveA 10% price increase reduce smoking as much as 10% among youth and the poor.Deter youth taking up smoking High opportunity costsHigher budget share for other goods and services

Price Elasticity EvidenceAs tax increases, consumption decreasesEvidence from South Africa

Source: Saloojee 1995

Cigarette consumption per adult (in packs)

Real Price

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Consumption per adult

Real Price

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1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

It works for other countries: Evidence from UK

Real Price and Consumption of Cigarettesin the UK--1971-96

Source: Townsend J 1998, Central Statistical Office (UK) (1965-93)

Does it work for Hungary?

Chart1

82.3554742168164.5247010509

81.3537260007161.0110049583

76.7182096434165.8700387222

87.5327477269172.2847121432

84.9539641357160.1666264187

88.1452155076155.8812906333

92.0731707317166.6606649862

94.351732991171.0088559119

86.4165.770609319

93.1174089069126.6276430534

88.9801505818124.9103514224

95.7510472771141.8482164233

105.8057514921116.0532310275

Price

Consumption

Real Cigarette Retail Price (1995 HUF / Pack)

Consumption Per Person 15+ (packs)

Real Cigarette Price (1995 HUF/pack)

Consumption Per Person 15+ (Packs)

Real Cigarette Price and Consumption Per 15+ in Hungary, 1987-1999

mainsheet

HUNGARY19751980198519901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Domestic Tobacco Consumption

Cigarettes (million sticks)28,63926,42425,74027,76928,57927,75021,20020,90023,70023,90020,000

Per capita cigarette cosumption (sticks) (15+)3,4643,1953,1113,3563,4523,3512,5692,5422,8922,9272,457

per capita cigarette cosumption (sticks) (all)2,7632,5622,5082,7202,8132,7462,1102,0932,3882,4232,039

Prevelence (% of adults)33%32%32%32%36%35%35%33%31%31%

Cigarette consumption per smoker 15+104969984972310486959095747447770294809560

Tobacco Prices

Average retail prices

- Cigarettes (HUF/piece)1.421.852.363.023.684.325.756.5010.7511.0011.25

y o y change (%)30%28%28%22%18%33%13%65%2%2%

Taxation on Tobacco

Stated Tax rates on Tobacco Products

VAT (as % of TIRSP, tax included retail selling price)20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%

Specific tax for cigarettes (HUF per 100 cigarettes)607792110121139160195230245

Ad Valerom tax rate50%50%50%50%65%75%75%75%75%75%

Tariff on imported cigarettes

Actual Average Tax Burden on Tobacco products

- Cigarettes (HUF/piece)

Actual Tax Rate as % of Retail price for Tobacco Products

- Cigarettes60.9%61.0%57.1%52.4%56.5%58.6%59.7%54.0%57.6%59.2%

Specific rate/pieceSpecific rate0.770.921.101.211.391.601.932.32.6

Ad valorem RSP/pieceAd valorem RSP0.400.510.620.730.981.111.831.91.9

VATVAT0.470.600.740.861.151.302.152.22.3

total tax/piecetotal tax/piece0.001.642.042.462.813.524.015.916.376.81

Excise tob. revenueExcise tob. revenue030,947.7937,876.1645,574.7951,378.8362,558.8271,476.9299,288.18110,188.08120,427.38

total tob revenuetotal tob revenue043,42053,42365,98576,07194,47199,037144,223162,328174,202

% tob excise in excise reve% tob excise in excise reve0.0000.1860.2560.2770.2560.2820.2680.3100.0000.000

% tob reven. In total revenue% tob reven. In total revenue0.000.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.000.00

% tax in RSPVATrevenue0.000.700.670.670.650.610.620.550.580.61

% of excise in RSPspecific reve0.000.500.470.470.450.410.420.350.380.41

ad valorem revad valorem rev0.00

Total Tax revenues on Tobacco Products (Actual)

- Cigarettes (million HUF)29,77737,04947,87255,00667,67671,38081,094137,568151,321133,234

- VAT (million HUF)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000

- Excise tax (million HUF)14,30020,00024,90031,10034,00043,70047,00053,92486,61398,74188,234

as % of retail price35.2%40.9%41.0%37.1%32.4%36.5%38.6%39.7%34.0%37.6%39.2%

fixed19,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

ad valerom5,0805,5532,56310,12317,53220,51540,39843,77139,334

8.4%6.6%2.4%8.4%14.4%15.1%15.9%16.6%17.5%

cigarette tax composition - VAT33%33%35%38%35%34%34%37%35%34%

cigarette tax composition - excise67%67%65%62%65%66%66%63%65%66%

total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

Total Tobacco Tax revenue (direct calculation)

- Cigarettes (million HUF) (VAT + excise tax)31,36439,07853,11767,44977,91376,58285,219149,913157,761135,195

- VAT (applied to domestic production minus exports)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000

- Excise tax ( fixed + Ad valorem)21,58726,92936,34446,44453,93752,20258,04998,958105,18190,195

- fixed part15,85419,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

- Ad valorem5,7327,10910,79715,00720,36022,73424,64052,74350,21141,295

discrepancy with line 407.9%8.1%16.9%36.6%23.4%11.1%7.6%14.3%6.5%2.2%

tax per domestic production1.201.461.882.282.702.713.325.595.745.88

tax per domestic consumption1.191.521.912.362.813.614.086.336.606.76

Total cigarette excise tax (million US$)288341395442428341310462444354

cigarette trade suplus as % of cigarette excise tax-1.8%1.4%0.8%1.8%8.0%13.9%12.1%5.2%6.1%6.0%

Tobacco Trade

Cigarettes Trade

Cigarette imports (million sticks)427300237209390250300400300400500

Cigarette exports (million sticks)001,3326391,3671,4007,4005,2003,4004,0003,500

Average price of imports (HUF/piece)2.00.90.90.92.24.72.93.4343.8794.255

Average price of exports (HUF/piece)n.a.0.40.70.93.51.21.61.8062.0002.151

Average price of imports (US$/piece)0.0270.0110.0090.0090.0170.0310.0160.0160.0160.017

2%2%2%

Average price of exports (US$/piece)n.a.0.0060.0080.0080.0270.0080.0080.0080.0080.008

Total import value (million HUF)3012853188496072141803525441,4131,1771,0301,5512,128

Total export value (million HUF)4413719082165854611,1664,8458,6838,2076,1418,0017,530

Net surplus (million HUF)-257-272-24759-3913712828154,3017,2707,0305,1116,4495,403

Total import value (million US$) -cigarette796138323496578

Total export value (million US$)1011437511385744293430

Net surplus (million US$)-6-8-51-5538344838242721

Other Tobacco Products Trade

Leaf tobacco imports (metric tons)

Leaf tobacco exports (metric tons)

Average price of import (HUF/ton)

Average price of export (HUF/ton)

All Tobacco Products Trade

Total tobacco import value (million HUF)8598028131,7382,7803,6124,0416,3096,43510,90714,384

Total tobacco export value (million HUF)1312602151,1087942,4612,1643,6246,29813,5328,478

Net surplus (million HUF)-728-542-599-630-1,986-1,151-1,878-2,685-1372,625-5,906

Total tobacco imports (Million US$)2024162837464460517177

Total tobacco exports (Million US$)3841811312435508845

Total Trading surplus in tobacco (Million US$)-17-16-12-10-26-15-20-26-117-32

Domestic Tobacco Production


- filter (million sticks)26,20027,55627,10026,50023,90025,10026,20021,800

- non-filter (million sticks)1,9992,0001,8001,8001,8001,7001,3001,200

Macro Data (Population, Trade, Tax, Income, CPI)

Population (million)10.710.510.410.310.310.210.210.110.010.09.99.99.8

-growth rate-1.500%-1.720%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.524%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.554%

Adult population (15+) (million)8.368.328.278.278.278.288.288.288.258.228.198.178.14

- growth rate-0.500%-0.592%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.037%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.302%

Total merchandise import (Million US$)7,1759,2358,1908,62611,46511,06612,68314,63215,49118,14421,23423,101

Total merchandise export (Million US$)6,0948,7008,4799,55610,24210,7058,94510,74512,97615,70419,10020,747

Total merchandise trade suplus (Million US$)-1,081-534289930-1,223-361-3,738-3,887-2,515-2,440-2,134-2,354

Total government excise tax revenue (million HUF)25,200108,200137,300166,700148,200164,300200,900222,100266,300320,600

Total government tax revenue (million HUF)456,200934,100988,6001,143,2001,390,4001,642,3001,999,0002,328,8002,780,2003,221,800

Total government revenue (million HUF)

exchange rate (HUF/US$) (period average)44335063757992105126153187214237255

Average monthly labor income (HUF)27,98634,19641,49450,81656,65462,97775,68391,868104,028116,725

Average monthly labor income (US$)373433451484450412405429439458

CPI ( in 1995 HUF)32445465.677.9100123.5146.1167.1184.3196

Some Tobacco Ratios

Percentage of cigarettes excise tax of total excise tax13.2%14.6%14.9%21.0%20.7%21.8%21.2%20.2%27.0%

Percentage of cigarettes tax of total tax3.17%3.42%3.82%4.11%3.90%3.29%3.07%4.65%

Percentage of cigarette expenditure in total labor income1.76%1.79%2.04%2.08%2.13%1.95%1.82%2.82%2.58%1.97%

A smoker's % of cigarette expenditure in total labor income5.5%5.6%6.4%5.8%6.1%5.7%5.5%9.2%8.4%0.0%

World Bank User:vat rate is 25%

World Bank User:40 without filter and 65 with filter

World Bank User:I guess this is as a % of exfactory price or wholesale price, not as % of retail price

World Bank User:cigarettes VAT as % of total Cigarettes tax (VAT + Excise)

World Bank User:Cigarettes Excise Tax as % of Total Cigarettes tax ( VAT + Excise)

World Bank User:These numbers are estimated, need more information on this

World Bank User:Estimated


World Bank User:These numbers should be what we got directly from other sources

World Bank User:These numbers are what we calculated using tax rates, prices and consumption data

World Bank User:This should be in line with what we have in line 38. Otherwise there will be some problem

World Bank User:For the sake of international comparison

World Bank User:These are what we computed, need to verify with other sources

World Bank User:EU standard is above 70%, Hungary hasn't reached that level

World Bank User:Need real data, these are estimates

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Percentage of cigarette expenditure in total labor income

Cigarette Expenditure as % of Average Montly Labor Income: Hungary (1991-2000)

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Share of Cigarette Expenditure in Average Monthly Labor Income in Hungary, 1991-1999

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Smoker's Monthly Cigarette Expenditure in Average Monthly Labor Income in Hungary, 1991-1999

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1991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Total Cigarette Production (million sticks)26,12426,83528,19929,55628,90028,30025,70026,80027,50023,000

Domestic total consumption (million Sticks)26,42425,74027,76928,57927,75021,20020,90023,70023,90020,000

Per Capita Cigarette Consumption (15+)3,1953,1113,3563,4523,3512,5692,5422,8922,9272,457

Per Capita Cigarette Expenditure (15+) (HUF, monthly)59173410131269144814771652310932202764

Per Capita Monthly Labor Income27,98634,19641,49450,81656,65462,97775,68391,868104,028116,725

% of Cigarettes Expenditure on Labor Income2%2%2%2%3%2%2%3%3%2%

1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Hungary15,78216,79316,44915,81216,39318,47820,52520,93621,83620,77222,50224,00826,13523,60323,59325,78326,25025,70025,52526,05028,59828,19026,43524,85027,54027,28027,13327,24226,62827,41528,84926,53025,89527,76928,57927,75027200209002370023900

population 15+7456100.07.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+06

per capita consumption sticks2117225222062121219924782753280829292786301832203505316631643458352134473423349438363781354533333694365936393654357136773869355834733724383337223648280331793205

% change

1960-196517.1%

1965-197021.8%

1970-197514.6%

1980-198510.9%

1985-1990-4.6%

1990-19955.8%

1995-1999-13.9%

196019651970197519801985199019951999

per stick211724783018345838363659386937223205

% increase17%22%15%11%-5%6%-4%-14%

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Per Capita Cigarette Consumption (15+)

% of Cigarettes Expenditure on Labor Income

Sticks

Annual Cigarettes Consumption Per 15+ & Cigarettes Expendiures as % of Income

Trade

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Domestic total consumption (million Sticks)

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Domestic total consumption in Hungary

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Total Cigarette Production (million sticks)


Million Sticks

Total Cigarettes Production & Consumption in Hungary

Consumption &Health

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per capita consumption sticks

Sticks/15+ population

Trend in Cigarette Consumption and Change in Every Five Years (%) Hungary 1960-1999

3205(-14%)

3722(-4%)

3869(6%)

3659(-5%)

3836(11%)

3458(15%)

3018(22%)

2478(17%)

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% change

Percentage Change in Cigarette Consumption in Every Five Years in Hungary 1960-1999

Sheet2

19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Retail Price (HUF/Pack)15.317.519.328.43747.260.473.586.4115130160195225

CPI19222532445465.677.9100123.5146.1167.1184.3196

Real Cigarette Retail Price (1995 HUF / Pack)828177888588929486938996106115

Domestic Consumption (million sticks)27,24226,62827,41528,84926,53025,89527,76928,57927,75027,20020,90023,70023,90020,000

Domestic Consumption (million sticks)25,05623,40524,01321,92121,36521,40020,90023,70023,900

Annual Average Consumption Per 15+ Adult164160165174160157168173168165127145146123


population 15+8.328.328.328.278.278.278.288.288.288.258.228.198.178.14

Average monthly income27,98634,19641,49450,81656,65462,97775,68391,868104,028116,725

Real Per Capita Monthly Income64257.990019009663859.966617053763252.818560784165232.179986804156653.785774664950993.792781824751802.066758665554977.940479919356445.016106373659553.682669481

Disposable Income (billion HUF)1727.62050.82350.92888.63559.443835219.66140.96967.9

Real Disposable Income/capita 15+479.6167958042462.9339679684433.0509964312447.9488294541429.8273155416430.0752251587434.4598178734448.4777294011463.0038232849

% of cigarette price (per pack) on monthly income0.13%0.14%0.15%0.14%0.15%0.18%0.17%0.17%0.19%0.19%


1987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999



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Annual Average Consumption Per 15+ Adult

Real Per Capita Monthly Income

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1995 HUF

Real Income and Per Capital Consumption

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Real Cigarette Retail Price

Cigarette per pack/15+





Real Retail Price/pack (HUF), and Cigarette per pack/15+


Real Cigarette Price, Real Monthly Income and Cigarette Consumption, Hungary, 1991-2000

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Consumption per pack/15+

Real per capita monthly income

Consumption and Real Income Trend Hungary 1991-2000

Restrictions & Prevalence

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Real Price/pack (HUF)

Consumption per pack/capita 15+

Cigarette Consumption Trend and Real Average Retail Price of Most Popular Brand Hungary, 1991-1999

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1995 HUF/pack

Real Cigarette Retail Price in Hungary, 1987-2000

1975198019851990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Cigarette Imports79613832349657

Cigarette Exports (Mil. US$)10114375113857442934

Cigarette Trade Surplus-6-8-51-55383448382427

Total Tobacco Imports ( Million US$)2024162837464460517177

Total Tobacco Exports ( Mil. US$)3841811312435508845

Total Tobacco Trade Surplus (million US$)-17-16-12-10-26-15-20-26-117-32

Total Merchandise Imports (Million US$)7,1759,2358,1908,62611,46511,06612,68314,63215,49118,14421,23423,1010

Total Merchandise Exports (Million US$)6,0948,7008,4799,55610,24210,7058,94510,74512,97615,70419,10020,7470

Total Merchandise Trade Surplus (Million US$)-1,081-534289930-1,223-361-3,738-3,887-2,515-2,440-2,134-2,3540

Tobacco suplus as % of total merchandise1.53%3.07%-4.14%-1.08%2.16%4.04%0.55%0.66%0.04%-0.70%1.48%

Tobacco exports as % of total merchandise0.05%0.09%0.05%0.18%0.10%0.29%0.26%0.32%0.39%0.56%0.24%

Tobacco imports as % of total merchandise0.27%0.26%0.20%0.32%0.32%0.41%0.35%0.41%0.33%0.39%0.36%

Cigarette exports as % of total merchandise0.02%0.00%0.02%0.15%0.03%0.07%0.06%0.10%0.30%0.36%0.23%0.14%

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Cigarette Exports (Mil. US$)

Total Tobacco Exports ( Mil. US$)

Tobacco exports as % of total merchandise

Tobacco Export and Its Share in Total Merchandise Export, Hungary, 1975-1997

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Total Tobacco Trade Surplus (million US$)

Net Surplus of Tabacco Trade (Million US$)

A Net Importer of Tobacco

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Cigarette Imports


Cigarette Trade Surplus

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Million US$

Exports of Cigarettes Picked up in Late 90s

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Tobacco Trade Suplus (Deficits)

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Tobacco suplus as % of total merchandise

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Tobacco Trade as % of Total Merchandise

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Total Tobacco Imports ( Million US$)



Million US$

Tobacco Trade (Export-Import) Hungary, 1975-1997

Notes1991199219931994199519961997199819992000Cigarettes tax2000BulgariaCrotiaCzechRep.EstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaMoldovaPolandRomaniaRussiaSloveniaUkraine

Excise Tax on Cigarettes (Million HUF)20,00024,90031,10034,00043,70047,00053,92486,61398,74188,234VAT45,000Total Tax Incidence54.967.460.255.460.549.3397.660.55421.262.631

VAT on Cigarettes (Million HUF)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000Fixed Excise48,900Excise incidence36.549.542.140.140.53423.87.642.5384.53215

Total Cigarettes Tax29,77737,04947,87255,00667,67671,38081,094137,568151,321133,234Ad Valorem Excise39,334

Total Excise Tax (Million HUF)137,300166,700148,200164,300200,900222,100266,300320,60000Total Tax IncidenceExcise incidence

Total Government Tax Revenue (Million HUF)988,6001,143,2001,390,4001,642,3001,999,0002,328,8002,780,2003,221,80000Moldova7.67.6

Cigarettes excise tax as % of total excise15%15%21%21%22%21%20%27%Russia21.24.5

CIgarettes tax as % of total government tax revenue3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%Ukraine3115

In 1995 HUFReal Cigarettes Tax Revenue68,36969,18972,97670,61067,67657,79855,50682,32782,10667,977Lithuania3923.8

CPI44546678100124146167184196Latvia49.334

Romania5438

Bulgaria54.936.5

HUNGARY199219931994199519961997199819992000FEstonia55.440.1

Specific rate/piece0.770.921.101.211.391.601.932.32.6CzechRep.60.242.1

Ad valorem RSP/piece0.400.510.620.730.981.111.831.91.9Hungary60.540.5

VAT0.470.600.740.861.151.302.152.22.3Poland60.542.5

Slovenia62.632

total tax/piece1.642.042.462.813.524.015.916.376.81Crotia67.449.5

Excise tob. revenue30,94837,87645,57551,37962,55971,47799,288110,188120,427

total tob revenue43,42053,42365,98576,07194,47199,037144,223162,328174,202

% tob excise in excise reve0.1860.2560.2770.2560.2820.2680.310

% tob reven. In total revenue0.040.040.040.040.040.040.04

% tax in RSP0.700.670.670.650.610.620.550.580.61

% of excise in RSP0.500.470.470.450.410.420.350.380.41

Real tobacco tax revenue57,79457,73858,50451,37950,65548,92359,41859,78761,443

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Excise Tax on Cigarettes (Million HUF)

Cigarettes excise tax as % of total excise

Million HUF

Cigarette Excise Tax Revenue and its Share in Total Excise Revenue in Hungary, 1991-1998

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0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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0

Tax as % of Retail Price

Real Cigarettes Tax Revenue

59%

Million HUF ( in 1995 Value)

Real Cigarettes Tax Revenues in Hungary(1995 CPI = 100)

56%

53%

60%

57%

59%

52%

57%

61%

61%

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CIgarettes tax as % of total government tax revenue

The Importance of Cigarettes Taxation is Rising

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Cigarettes Tax Revenue Composition In Hungary ( 2000F)

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VAT

Excise Tax


VAT on Cigarettes (Million HUF)

Million HUF

Cigarettes Tax Revenues in Hungary 1991-2000

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% tax in RSP

% of excise in RSP

% of total and excise tax share in RSP

Total (Excise+VAT) and Excise (Specific+Ad Valorem) Tax Incidence on Cigarettes Hungary, 1992-2000

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Excise tob. revenue

% tob excise in excise reve

Million HUF

Cigarette Excise Tax Revenue and Its Share in Total Excise Revene, Hungary, 1992-1998

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Excise tob. revenue

Real tobacco tax revenue

Million HUF

Real and Nominal Tobacco Tax Revenue, Hungary, 1992-2000

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Total Tax Incidence

Excise incidence

% of total and excise tax rates

Tobacco Tax Rates in Central European Countries, 2000

World Cigarette Consumption

30-NOV-1999 11:02

(Million Pieces)

19961997199819992000 by Gain reportRetail price of 20 local currency

Domestic Consumption

Afghanistan1500150015001500Tax incidence %Per capita consumption 15+Million consumption15+ populationMost popular brand price per pack in EURO and % of total tax in priceMost popular brand price per pack in EURO and % of total tax in price

Albania3050320032503250Lithuania39.135.51088777225300298525.90.518

Algeria20700210002150021500Estonia55.437.16216216222200118443.70.874

Angola2900290029002900Latvia49.340.12036108324000199424.20.484

Argentina41300412004170042500Romania5443.713458281400001830115.270.3054

Armenia; Republic of5600570058005800Czeck Rep.60.244.320037322119000857451.91.038

Australia28584279992787427100Slovenia62.644.44444444443700166553.761.0752

Austria12936132051550315600Croatia67.451.23213804269501370959.11.182

Azerbaijan; Republic of6100620061506150Bulgaria54.955.104408352719000689615.70.314

Bangladesh15400154001540015400Hungary60.557.445018627623900832144.130.8826

Barbados230230230235Poland60.559.5829195631930003121740.780.8156

Belarus15000155001600016000

Belgium-Luxembourg15572122161230012300

Belize18018018080

Benin500500500500

Bolivia1300130013001300

Bosnia-Hercegovina9600960096008600

Botswana900900900900

Brazil11900011030097000100000

Brunei800800800800

Bulgaria19103186001800019000

Burma1550155015501550

Burundi700700700700

Cambodia4300430043004300

Cameroon5250525052505250

Canada48562469944879648796

Chad55555555

Chile12675139901414012545

China; Peoples Republic of1659477166604816550901655950

Colombia19800198001980019800

Congo (Brazzaville)10701070600600

Costa Rica2025202520252025

Cote d''Ivoire485048504850485045 (35 most popular)

Croatia10491889695019501

Cuba15900159001590015900

Cyprus1450150015501550

Czech Republic2270023950200001900019000

Denmark9472907485098700

Dominican Republic4098388440894089

Ecuador4600460046004600

Egypt44250462004660046600

El Salvador1620162016201620

Estonia2200220022002200

Ethiopia2700270027002700

Fiji700700700700

Finland5059522352385300

France86163829838383683000

Georgia; Republic of8600870088008800

Germany127003137643137500137000

Ghana2250225022502250

Greece30000299003000030150

Guatemala2144217021752175

Guinea1051058585

Guyana650650650650

Haiti920920920920

Honduras2011201120112011

Hong Kong5076502755405900

Hungary21200209002370023900

Iceland600600600600

India100786976809682095975

Indonesia192688202379205459207685

Iran24000241002420024200

Iraq13700142001420014200

Ireland6350635063506350

Israel8200825083508350

Italy86960932079353692900

Jamaica & Dep1240124012401240

Japan336545319615257600257600

Jordan3850395040004000

Kazakhstan; Republic of15650160001700017000

Kenya7000700070007000

Korea; Democratic Peoples Rep15500155001550015500

Korea; Republic of103001102756102000102000

Kuwait1000100010001000

Kyrgyzstan; Republic of4000405041004100

Laos1300130013001300

Latvia3900400040004000

Lebanon5600565056505650

Liberia225225225225

Libya5700570057005700

Lithuania5200525053005300

Macau8800880088008800

Macedonia (Skopje)4600460047004700

Madagascar2500250025002500

Malawi12001100950930

Malaysia19933202291930018500

Malta & Gozo1350137514001400

Mauritius1500150015001500

Mexico46758469904718047230

Moldova; Republic of4800480047004700

Morocco15700158001590015900

Mozambique1200120012001200

Nepal1500150015001500

Netherlands15425166703012430124

Netherlands Antilles1700170017001700

New Zealand6245624562256225

Nicaragua2400240024002400

Niger800800800800

Nigeria18700187001870018700

Norway2720277125752715

Pakistan45603469655170254500

Panama900915915915

Papua New Guinea55555555

Paraguay1900195019501950

Peru4210421042104210

Philippines77779692017500071620

Poland91780916639305093000

Portugal16150164751647516475

Reunion300300300300

Romania32500315003300040000

Russian Federation207000230000231500232000

Rwanda30303030

Saudi Arabia20000200002000020000

Senegal3900390039003900

Seychelles15151515

Sierra Leone1038103810381038

Singapore3389346733223480

Slovakia11250119001240012400

Slovenia3700370037003700

Solomon Islands25252525

South Africa; Republic of36024325883108230000

Spain74582808758992090000

Sri Lanka5150515051505150

Sudan1250135014501450

Surinam400400400400

Sweden8278599957006300

Switzerland15452145091435014350

Syria10000101001020010200

Taiwan37632400124010440080

Tajikistan; Republic of7400750074007400

Tanzania; United Republic of3750375037503750

Thailand49155491344170034290

Togo1000100010001000

Trinidad and Tobago1320132013201320

Tunisia11100111001120011200

Turkey98509100030109300111500

Turkmenistan5900600061006100

Uganda2300230023002300

Ukraine85000860008700087000

United Arab Emirates6500650065006500

United Kingdom89288880208294079500

United States518305507004483000446000

Uruguay3938393839383938

Uzbekistan; Republic of17782179881598416600

Venezuela7658699141004100

Vietnam32000320003200032000

Western Samoa155155160160

Yemen4700480048004800

Yugoslavia (>05/92)22300223002230022300

Zaire5300530053005300

Zambia1600160016001600

Zimbabwe2150218320902090

5178827Share of tobacco Consumption

Africa's Share2181034.2%

Sub-Sharan Africa's share770031.5%22.3%

Kenya's share in African expenditure9.1%

0.2239185751

Rest of the world85.5%

Europe EU share61369911.9%0.99999

Germany's share1370002.6%0.000010.99999

Rest of the world86.9%0.1052631579Rest of the world87%

Central Europe67780113.1%European Union0.023923445Central Europe0%

Hungary239000.0%GermanyHung in central europe4%

Hung in central europe4%0.0046149447Baltics2%

Baltics115001.7%1975FemalesBalkans21%

Balkans13775120.3%198597Former USSR27%

Former USSR17965026.5%199020Poland14%

Poland9300013.7%1995Russia35%

Russia23200034.2%

0.7713191001

0.000001

0.1741725744

0.0545083255

0.7616402353

0.2383597647

0.8711771990.871177199

0.1288228010.128822801

0.00000010.0000001

Rest of the World 87%

Central and East Europe 13%

Hungary 4% of C&EE



Hungary 4% of C&EE

Global Share of Cigarette Consumption 1999

0.77131910010.7713191001

0.0000010.000001

0.17417257440.1741725744

0.05450832550.0545083255

Other causes 77%

Smoking deaths 23%

Male deaths 76%

Female deaths 24%

Other causes 77%

Smoking deaths 23%

Male deaths 76%

Female deaths 24%

Tobacco Attributable Deaths in Hungary 1995

0.13

0.18

0.2

0.23

All causes

Share of Smoking Attributed Deaths in Total Deaths in Hungary, 1975-1995

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Per capita consumption 15+

Most popular brand price per pack in EURO and % of total tax in price

Pack of 20/capita 15+

Cigarette Consumption in 1999, % of Tax Incidence and Most Popular Brand Price (EURO) in Eastern Europe Countries, 2000

39%0.52

55.4%0.87

49%0.48

54%0.31

60%1.0

63%1.1

67%1.2

55%0.31

61%0.88

61%0.82

0

0

0

0

0

0

Distribution of the Cigarette Consumption in Central and Eastern European Countries in 1999

Former USSR 27%

Poland 14%

Russia34%

Balkans20%

Baltics2%

Hungary4%

ProductionImports (M)Exports (X)

UNSDUSDACISERCUNSDFAOUSDAERCUNSDFAOUSDAERCPopTotal ConsumptionConsumption Per Person 15+

YearMil. UnitsMTMT15+USDA

196116,793---0---07.50816793112

1962---16,449---20---2207.56716449109

1963---15,812---50---107.63815812104

1964---16,393---70---7207.71316393106

1965---18,478---160---66107.79218478119

1966---20,525---960---43907.87220525130

1967---20,936---640---18807.95720936132

1968---21,836---3050---65308.0421836136

1969---20,772---6400---34308.11720772128

19702205022,000---627783---2252818.18622502137

19712345223,452---8611,075---4155198.24624008146

19722547525,475---8261,033---2983738.29926135157

19732284322,843---8331,041---2252818.33923603142

19742292222,923---8041,005---2683358.3723593141

19752454924,500---12231,528---1962458.3925783154

19762489624,900---12461,600---22508.39826250156

19772486524,900---14271,000------2008.39625700153

19782515224,725---9451,000---12008.38625525152

19792497224,972---10631,328---22508.37326050156

19802715827,158---13521,690---1002508.3628598171

19812710227,102---10701,338---9352508.34728190169

19822613526,135---8401,300---1661,0008.33726435159

19832567625,250---1077900---3441,3008.32824850149

19842667926,678---762953---73918.31527540166

19852643026,430---8521,000---2421508.30627280164

19862635126,283---4921,000---291508.29227133164

19872654126,542---270800---271008.27927242165

19882617126,328---354450---581508.26926628161

19892654026,540---8201,025---4001508.26427415166

19902821228,21228212---534427427---376315028038.26828489172

19912612426,100261240491600600---6521701708.28226530160

19922683526,835268352372651010133213319509508.30625895156

19932872828,1992872831631620920980683363947008.33127769167

19942951829,55629518634629390390178617861,36773008.35628579171

19952570928,90025709711707250250---50861,40029008.3727750166

19962759428,30027080866866300866737473747,40070008.37121200127

19972605725,70027100548548400548626462645,20062648.36620900125

1998---26,800325325300------3,4008.35423700142

1999---22,960-22%------400------4,0008.34119360116

2000------------------------8.329

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Total Consumption

Consumption Per Person 15+

Total Consumption (Million Pieces)


Cigarette Consumption in Hungary, 1970-1999

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0

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0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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0

0

0

0

Million Pieces

Cigarette Production in Hungary, 1961-1999

1999 Consumption

Rest of the World4333560

Rest of the World0

Hungary19360

Rest of ECA8259072.3%

Adult (18 years & older), 1998-1999Youth (11-15 year olds), 1997

Males44%9%

Females27%6%

35-69 years olds

MaleFemale

Vascular44%16%

Respiratory75%43%

Lung Cancer97%75%

Tobacco leaves - Production (mt)1961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Hungary1.72E+041.86E+042.67E+042.86E+041.84E+041.96E+042.39E+042.68E+042.74E+041.76E+041.63E+041.74E+041.96E+041.68E+041.67E+041.94E+042.42E+042.17E+042.52E+041.48E+042.28E+042.47E+042.05E+042.02E+042.10E+042.13E+041.97E+041.60E+041.47E+041.36E+041.75E+041.31E+041.11E+041.20E+041.12E+041.03E+041.09E+041.25E+041.40E+041.40E+04

Hungary19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Tobacco Leaves - Exports (Mt)6.44E+033.96E+034.01E+039.68E+039.50E+037.20E+031.07E+046.55E+037.33E+038.57E+035.69E+032.60E+031.51E+031.33E+031.13E+036.33E+028.21E+021.10E+031.15E+032.54E+032.71E+032.44E+033.69E+033.56E+031.38E+032.88E+033.45E+033.41E+031.17E+048.75E+025.92E+027.10E+021.54E+037.53E+029.16E+022.67E+032.94E+022.26E+03

Tobacco Leaves - Imports (Mt)7.51E+036.55E+034.56E+034.99E+034.93E+038.07E+031.56E+041.23E+041.03E+047.57E+037.68E+039.00E+038.67E+039.06E+038.27E+036.74E+038.58E+036.26E+034.31E+036.76E+038.26E+037.06E+037.40E+035.25E+034.76E+036.02E+037.74E+035.82E+035.42E+036.21E+031.85E+048.86E+031.19E+041.61E+041.30E+041.94E+041.93E+041.81E+04

Hungary Leaf

19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Production1717318623267042860318443196112390926800274061759416287173711963316774167451938124164216912523314798228132469620539202432096621266197481604914653135831750913103111361202911249103431093912538

Export64393955400696849503720010702655273278569569325961511133111316338211103115125382712244036883562138128753453340811733875592710154075391626652942261

Import751165464555499149258067155761226310313757276769000866890558271673885796255430867638259705773955248475560247744581754166212185228859118541613913031194321931518060

Domestic Consumption182452121427253239101386520478287833251130392165971827023775267902449823885254863192226843283901902328360293132424621929243402441524039184588336189203543921252214502741523364271102996028337

Hungary19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Tobacco - Imports (1000$)3.95E+039.69E+038.28E+031.11E+041.06E+041.00E+041.45E+041.14E+041.24E+041.09E+041.07E+041.18E+041.33E+041.67E+041.95E+041.82E+042.32E+041.70E+041.65E+042.43E+042.84E+042.49E+042.53E+041.92E+041.63E+041.93E+042.30E+042.43E+042.54E+042.76E+043.71E+044.57E+044.39E+046.01E+045.11E+047.13E+047.69E+047.43E+04

Tobacco - Exports (1000$)4.00E+033.84E+033.07E+038.11E+038.46E+037.89E+031.08E+048.59E+037.97E+037.57E+036.33E+033.80E+033.37E+033.36E+032.98E+031.20E+031.81E+032.60E+033.29E+037.88E+031.32E+047.89E+031.22E+047.64E+034.29E+036.74E+036.88E+038.97E+037.35E+031.76E+041.06E+043.12E+042.35E+043.45E+045.00E+048.84E+044.53E+043.10E+04

Export44388811988643331233813812847797181131243550884531

Import-4-10-8-11-11-10-14-11-12-11-11-12-13-17-20-18-23-17-16-24-28-25-25-19-16-19-23-24-25-28-37-46-44-60-51-71-77-74

Net Surplus0-6-5-3-2-2-4-3-4-3-4-8-10-13-17-17-21-14-13-16-15-17-13-12-12-13-16-15-18-10-26-15-20-26-117-32-43

1987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Real Cigarette Retail Price (1995 HUF / Pack)82.355474216881.353726000776.718209643487.532747726984.953964135788.145215507692.073170731794.35173299186.493.117408906988.980150581895.7510472771105.8057514921

Consumption Per Person 15+ (packs)164.5247010509161.0110049583165.8700387222172.2847121432160.1666264187155.8812906333166.6606649862171.0088559119165.770609319126.6276430534124.9103514224141.8482164233116.0532310275

Retail Price (US$/pack)Tax as % of Retail Price

Hungary0.8961%

Spain1.2573%

Portugal1.8180%

Italy2.0975%

Germany2.7669%

France3.1676%

Finland3.8476%

Sweden4.0971%

Ireland4.1377%

Denmark4.3781%

UK5.7379%

4333560

0

19360

825907

Hungary's Cigarette Consumption Share in ECA and ECA's Share in the World, 1999

Hungary2%

ECA16%

Rest of ECA98%

0.440.27

0.090.06

Males

Females

Smoking Prevalence in Hungary

0.43750.1627906977

0.750.4285714286

0.97368421050.75

Male

Female

Percentage of Deaths Attributed to Smoking for People Aged Between 35 and 69 in Hungary, 1990

171736439751118245

186233955654621214

267044006455527253

286039684499123910

184439503492513865

196117200806720478

23909107021557628783

2680065521226332511

2740673271031330392

175948569757216597

162875693767618270

173712596900023775

196331511866826790

167741331905524498

167451131827123885

19381633673825486

24164821857931922

216911103625526843

252331151430828390

147982538676319023

228132712825928360

246962440705729313

205393688739524246

202433562524821929

209661381475524340

212662875602424415

197483453774424039

160493408581718458

146531173354168336

13583875621218920

175095921852235439

13103710885921252

1113615401185421450

120297531613927415

112499161303123364

1034326651943227110

109392941931529960

1253822611806028337

Production

Export

Import


Metric tons

Tobacco Leaf Production, Export, Import and Domestic Production in Hungary, 1961-1998

3.997-3.9490.048

3.84-9.692-5.852

3.065-8.284-5.219

8.113-11.085-2.972

8.463-10.56-2.097

7.894-10.025-2.131

10.833-14.492-3.659

8.589-11.393-2.804

7.965-12.441-4.476

7.567-10.85-3.283

6.331-10.716-4.385

3.801-11.786-7.985

3.369-13.277-9.908

3.358-16.724-13.366

2.977-19.523-16.546

1.203-18.182-16.979

1.811-23.227-21.416

2.596-17.003-14.407

3.289-16.494-13.205

7.884-24.304-16.42

13.214-28.421-15.207

7.887-24.858-16.971

12.191-25.281-13.09

7.642-19.234-11.592

4.293-16.264-11.971

6.738-19.263-12.525

6.882-22.964-16.082

8.967-24.278-15.311

7.352-25.362-18.01

17.587-27.593-10.006

10.589-37.066-26.477

31.154-45.727-14.573

23.519-43.927-20.408

34.51-60.082-25.572

49.982-51.07-1.088

88.443-71.28517.158

45.338-76.92-31.582

31.044-74.262-43.218

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Export

Import

Net Surplus

Million US Dollars

Tobacco Trade in Hungary, 1961-1998

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Price

Consumption



Real Cigarette Price (1995 HUF/pack)

Consumption Per Person 15+ (Packs)

Real Cigarette Price and Cigarette Consumption Per Person 15+ in Hungary, 1987-1999

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Retail Price (US$/pack)

Cigarette Price US$/Pack

Cigarette Prices and Taxes for Hungary and Selected EU Countries, 1999

79%

81%

77%

71%

76%

76%

69%

75%

80%

73%

61%

Deaths from respiratory diseaseTotal population (mn)Cig consumption 15+

196089339.961

1961568710.007112

1962762010.052109

1963488010.074104

1964432310.108106

1965556810.14119

1966435410.166130

1967512610.203132

1968714710.244136

1969589010.284128

1970584310.322137

1971622710.352146

1972418410.378157

1973515810.41142

1974500610.442141

1975717410.501154

1976649710.563156

1977724710.615153

1978804810.66152

1979724210.687156

19801003110.709171

1981833410.705169

1982782510.695159

1983875810.671149

1984763710.64166

1985756510.599164

1986769810.56164

1987633510.509165

1988601310.464161

1989691610.421166

1990664410.375172

1991625210.355160

1992695110.337156

1993707710.31167

1994687410.277171

1995644710.246166

1996620010.212127

1997585010.174125

1998528910.135142

1999620810.092116

200010.043

Price change

19901999IncreaseSpendingConsumption Per 15+

Pork242638164%97362.69

Wine60.5195222%971180.82

Chicken128426233%97541.80

Flour15.250.9235%974510.21

Beef179629251%97372.65

Potato14.162.1340%973700.26

Apple23.7133461%971730.56

Cigarettes28.4198597%971160.83

Labor cost (HUF/person)

Food products and beverages manufacturing71725

Average Manufacturing76101

Tobacco products Manufacturing1517571.9941525079

wageworker

Food products and beverages manufacturing116565

Tobacco products Manufacturing236105

average118636

1234567

9-Apr10-Apr11-Apr12-Apr13-Apr14-Apr15-Apr



30-Apr1-May2-May3-May4-May

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Increase

Change in Retail Prices in Selected Foods, Beverages and Tobacco Items in Hungary, 1990-1999

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Labor cost (HUF/person)

HUF/person

Average Monthly Gross Earnings Industry in Hungary, 1999

1999

MalesFemales14 and Less15-3435-6465 and over

Malignat neoplasm of lip, oral cavity and pharynx1361257211201414

Malignat neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung5797208601637574110

Smoking prevalence (%)4427

Total122224124030899268

Malignat neoplasm of lip, oral cavity and pharynx0.2%0.0%3.0%0.4%

Malignat neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung0.0%0.7%9.3%4.1%

0.2%0.7%12.3%4.6%

0.5%6.8%

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Males

Females

Number of Death

Mortality from Smoking Related Diseases by Gender in Hungary, 1999

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Malignat neoplasm of lip, oral cavity and pharynx

Malignat neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung

Percentage Share of Mortality due to Smoking Related Diseases in Total Mortality by Age Groups in Hungary, 1999

Smoking prevalenceTobacco AdvertisingSales to minorsHealth warnings on PackageSmoking in publicHealth EducationMortality from tobacco Use

Total (15+)MenWomen

Bulgaria37.550.125.4

Croatia

Czeck Rep.30.14021.2

Estonia355020

Hungary485839

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland476828.2

Romania456832

Slovenia317030

Slovak Rep.39.752.127.2

Total (15+)MenWomenPrevalencePoland smoking prevalence by education

Bulgaria37.550.125.4Bulgaria, High School42Basic Education53.8

Czeck Rep.30.14021.2Poland (16-26 years)38.5High School48.7

Estonia355020Lithuania (14yrs boys)28Middle School44.4

Hungary485839Czeck (all students)5

Poland476828.2

Romania455118

Slovenia317030

Slovak Rep.39.752.127.2

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000

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Total (15+)

Men

Women

% of smokers

Smoking Prevalence Among Adults (15+) in Selected Eastern Europe Countries, in 1990s

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Prevalence

% of smokers

Youth Smoking Prevalence in 1990s

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Poland smoking prevalence by education

% of smokers

Smoking Prevalence by Education in Poland, 1990s

High opportunity cost for smokers and their families

Chart1

0.055000054

0.0559186108

0.0636005634

0.0577962594

0.0608395122

0.0566577083

0.0551226087

0.092442278

0.0842400071


mainsheet

HUNGARY19751980198519901991199219931994199519961997199819992000







Tobacco Prices



y o y change (%)30%28%28%22%18%33%13%65%2%2%

Taxation on Tobacco









- Cigarettes60.9%61.0%57.1%52.4%56.5%58.6%59.7%54.0%57.6%59.2%



VATVAT0.470.600.740.861.151.302.152.22.3











- VAT (million HUF)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000



fixed19,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

ad valerom5,0805,5532,56310,12317,53220,51540,39843,77139,334

8.4%6.6%2.4%8.4%14.4%15.1%15.9%16.6%17.5%



total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%





- fixed part15,85419,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

- Ad valorem5,7327,10910,79715,00720,36022,73424,64052,74350,21141,295






Tobacco Trade

Cigarettes Trade






2%2%2%


























-growth rate-1.500%-1.720%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.524%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.554%


- growth rate-0.500%-0.592%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.037%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.302%










CPI ( in 1995 HUF)32445465.677.9100123.5146.1167.1184.3196

Some Tobacco Ratios


















World Bank User:EU standard is above 70%, Hungary hasn't reached that level

World Bank User:Need real data, these are estimates

mainsheet

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Percentage of cigarette expenditure in total labor income

Cigarette Expenditure as % of Average Montly Labor Income: Hungary (1991-2000)

prod & Cons

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Share of Cigarette Expenditure in Average Monthly Labor Income in Hungary, 1991-1999

price

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working

1991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Total Cigarette Production (million sticks)26,12426,83528,19929,55628,90028,30025,70026,80027,50023,000

Domestic total consumption (million Sticks)26,42425,74027,76928,57927,75021,20020,90023,70023,90020,000

Per Capita Cigarette Consumption (15+)3,1953,1113,3563,4523,3512,5692,5422,8922,9272,457

Per Capita Cigarette Expenditure (15+) (HUF, monthly)59173410131269144814771652310932202764

Per Capita Monthly Labor Income27,98634,19641,49450,81656,65462,97775,68391,868104,028116,725

% of Cigarettes Expenditure on Labor Income2%2%2%2%3%2%2%3%3%2%

1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Hungary15,78216,79316,44915,81216,39318,47820,52520,93621,83620,77222,50224,00826,13523,60323,59325,78326,25025,70025,52526,05028,59828,19026,43524,85027,54027,28027,13327,24226,62827,41528,84926,53025,89527,76928,57927,75027200209002370023900

population 15+7456100.07.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+067.46E+06

per capita consumption sticks2117225222062121219924782753280829292786301832203505316631643458352134473423349438363781354533333694365936393654357136773869355834733724383337223648280331793205

196019651970197519801985199019951999

per stick211724783018345838363659386937223205

% increase17%22%15%11%-5%6%-4%-14%

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Per Capita Cigarette Consumption (15+)

% of Cigarettes Expenditure on Labor Income

Sticks

Annual Cigarettes Consumption Per 15+ & Cigarettes Expendiures as % of Income

Trade

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Million Sticks

Domestic total consumption in Hungary

Taxation

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Total Cigarette Production (million sticks)


Million Sticks

Total Cigarettes Production & Consumption in Hungary

Consumption &Health

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per capita consumption sticks

Sticks/15+ population

Trend in Cigarette Consumption and Change in Every Five Years (%) Hungary 1960-1999

3205(-14%)

3722(-4%)

3869(6%)

3659(-5%)

3836(11%)

3458(15%)

3018(22%)

2478(17%)

Restrictions

19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Retail Price (HUF/Pack)15.317.519.328.43747.260.473.586.4115130160195225

CPI19222532445465.677.9100123.5146.1167.1184.3196


Domestic Consumption (million sticks)27,24226,62827,41528,84926,53025,89527,76928,57927,75027,20020,90023,70023,90020,000

Domestic Consumption (million sticks)25,05623,40524,01321,92121,36521,40020,90023,70023,900



population 15+8.328.328.328.278.278.278.288.288.288.258.228.198.178.14

Average monthly income27,98634,19641,49450,81656,65462,97775,68391,868104,028116,725

Real Per Capita Monthly Income64257.990019009663859.966617053763252.818560784165232.179986804156653.785774664950993.792781824751802.066758665554977.940479919356445.016106373659553.682669481

Disposable Income (billion HUF)1727.62050.82350.92888.63559.443835219.66140.96967.9

Real Disposable Income/capita 15+479.6167958042462.9339679684433.0509964312447.9488294541429.8273155416430.0752251587434.4598178734448.4777294011463.0038232849



1987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999



Restrictions

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packs

1995 HUF

Real Income and Per Capital Consumption

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Real Cigarette Retail Price

Cigarette per pack/15+





Real Retail Price/pack (HUF), and Cigarette per pack/15+


Real Cigarette Price, Real Monthly Income and Cigarette Consumption, Hungary, 1991-2000

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Consumption per pack/15+

Real per capita monthly income

Consumption and Real Income Trend Hungary 1991-2000

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Real Price/pack (HUF)

Consumption per pack/capita 15+

Cigarette Consumption Trend and Real Average Retail Price of Most Popular Brand Hungary, 1991-1999

1975198019851990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Cigarette Imports79613832349657

Cigarette Exports (Mil. US$)10114375113857442934

Cigarette Trade Surplus-6-8-51-55383448382427

Total Tobacco Imports ( Million US$)2024162837464460517177

Total Tobacco Exports ( Mil. US$)3841811312435508845

Total Tobacco Trade Surplus (million US$)-17-16-12-10-26-15-20-26-117-32

Total Merchandise Imports (Million US$)7,1759,2358,1908,62611,46511,06612,68314,63215,49118,14421,23423,1010

Total Merchandise Exports (Million US$)6,0948,7008,4799,55610,24210,7058,94510,74512,97615,70419,10020,7470

Total Merchandise Trade Surplus (Million US$)-1,081-534289930-1,223-361-3,738-3,887-2,515-2,440-2,134-2,3540

Tobacco suplus as % of total merchandise1.53%3.07%-4.14%-1.08%2.16%4.04%0.55%0.66%0.04%-0.70%1.48%

Tobacco exports as % of total merchandise0.05%0.09%0.05%0.18%0.10%0.29%0.26%0.32%0.39%0.56%0.24%

Tobacco imports as % of total merchandise0.27%0.26%0.20%0.32%0.32%0.41%0.35%0.41%0.33%0.39%0.36%

Cigarette exports as % of total merchandise0.02%0.00%0.02%0.15%0.03%0.07%0.06%0.10%0.30%0.36%0.23%0.14%

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Tobacco exports as % of total merchandise

Tobacco Export and Its Share in Total Merchandise Export, Hungary, 1975-1997

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Net Surplus of Tabacco Trade (Million US$)

A Net Importer of Tobacco

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Cigarette Imports


Cigarette Trade Surplus

Million US$

Million US$

Exports of Cigarettes Picked up in Late 90s

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Tobacco Trade Suplus (Deficits)

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Tobacco suplus as % of total merchandise

Million US$

Tobacco Trade as % of Total Merchandise

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Total Tobacco Imports ( Million US$)



Million US$

Tobacco Trade (Export-Import) Hungary, 1975-1997

Notes1991199219931994199519961997199819992000Cigarettes tax2000BulgariaCrotiaCzechRep.EstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaMoldovaPolandRomaniaRussiaSloveniaUkraine

Excise Tax on Cigarettes (Million HUF)20,00024,90031,10034,00043,70047,00053,92486,61398,74188,234VAT45,000Total Tax Incidence54.967.460.255.460.549.3397.660.55421.262.631

VAT on Cigarettes (Million HUF)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000Fixed Excise48,900Excise incidence36.549.542.140.140.53423.87.642.5384.53215

Total Cigarettes Tax29,77737,04947,87255,00667,67671,38081,094137,568151,321133,234Ad Valorem Excise39,334

Total Excise Tax (Million HUF)137,300166,700148,200164,300200,900222,100266,300320,60000Total Tax IncidenceExcise incidence

Total Government Tax Revenue (Million HUF)988,6001,143,2001,390,4001,642,3001,999,0002,328,8002,780,2003,221,80000Moldova7.67.6

Cigarettes excise tax as % of total excise15%15%21%21%22%21%20%27%Russia21.24.5

CIgarettes tax as % of total government tax revenue3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%Ukraine3115

In 1995 HUFReal Cigarettes Tax Revenue68,36969,18972,97670,61067,67657,79855,50682,32782,10667,977Lithuania3923.8

CPI44546678100124146167184196Latvia49.334

Romania5438

Bulgaria54.936.5

HUNGARY199219931994199519961997199819992000FEstonia55.440.1

Specific rate/piece0.770.921.101.211.391.601.932.32.6CzechRep.60.242.1

Ad valorem RSP/piece0.400.510.620.730.981.111.831.91.9Hungary60.540.5

VAT0.470.600.740.861.151.302.152.22.3Poland60.542.5

Slovenia62.632

total tax/piece1.642.042.462.813.524.015.916.376.81Crotia67.449.5

Excise tob. revenue30,94837,87645,57551,37962,55971,47799,288110,188120,427

total tob revenue43,42053,42365,98576,07194,47199,037144,223162,328174,202

% tob excise in excise reve0.1860.2560.2770.2560.2820.2680.310

% tob reven. In total revenue0.040.040.040.040.040.040.04

% tax in RSP0.700.670.670.650.610.620.550.580.61

% of excise in RSP0.500.470.470.450.410.420.350.380.41

Real tobacco tax revenue57,79457,73858,50451,37950,65548,92359,41859,78761,443

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Cigarette Excise Tax Revenue and its Share in Total Excise Revenue in Hungary, 1991-1998

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Real Cigarettes Tax Revenue

59%

Million HUF ( in 1995 Value)

Real Cigarettes Tax Revenues in Hungary(1995 CPI = 100)

56%

53%

60%

57%

59%

52%

57%

61%

61%

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CIgarettes tax as % of total government tax revenue

The Importance of Cigarettes Taxation is Rising

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Cigarettes Tax Revenue Composition In Hungary ( 2000F)

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VAT

Excise Tax


VAT on Cigarettes (Million HUF)

Million HUF

Cigarettes Tax Revenues in Hungary 1991-2000

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% of excise in RSP

% of total and excise tax share in RSP

Total (Excise+VAT) and Excise (Specific+Ad Valorem) Tax Incidence on Cigarettes Hungary, 1992-2000

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Excise tob. revenue

% tob excise in excise reve

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Cigarette Excise Tax Revenue and Its Share in Total Excise Revene, Hungary, 1992-1998

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Excise tob. revenue

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Real and Nominal Tobacco Tax Revenue, Hungary, 1992-2000

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Total Tax Incidence

Excise incidence

% of total and excise tax rates

Tobacco Tax Rates in Central European Countries, 2000

World Cigarette Consumption

30-NOV-1999 11:02

(Million Pieces)

1996199719981999


Afghanistan1500150015001500

Albania3050320032503250

Algeria20700210002150021500

Angola2900290029002900

Argentina41300412004170042500

Armenia; Republic of5600570058005800

Australia28584279992787427100

Austria12936132051550315600

Azerbaijan; Republic of6100620061506150

Bangladesh15400154001540015400

Barbados230230230235

Belarus15000155001600016000

Belgium-Luxembourg15572122161230012300

Belize18018018080

Benin500500500500

Bolivia1300130013001300

Bosnia-Hercegovina9600960096008600

Botswana900900900900

Brazil11900011030097000100000

Brunei800800800800

Bulgaria19103186001800019000

Burma1550155015501550

Burundi700700700700

Cambodia4300430043004300

Cameroon5250525052505250

Canada48562469944879648796

Chad55555555

Chile12675139901414012545

China; Peoples Republic of1659477166604816550901655950

Colombia19800198001980019800

Congo (Brazzaville)10701070600600

Costa Rica2025202520252025

Cote d''Ivoire4850485048504850

Croatia10491889695019501

Cuba15900159001590015900

Cyprus1450150015501550

Czech Republic22700239502000019000

Denmark9472907485098700

Dominican Republic4098388440894089

Ecuador4600460046004600

Egypt44250462004660046600

El Salvador1620162016201620

Estonia2200220022002200

Ethiopia2700270027002700

Fiji700700700700

Finland5059522352385300

France86163829838383683000

Georgia; Republic of8600870088008800

Germany127003137643137500137000

Ghana2250225022502250

Greece30000299003000030150

Guatemala2144217021752175

Guinea1051058585

Guyana650650650650

Haiti920920920920

Honduras2011201120112011

Hong Kong5076502755405900

Hungary21200209002370023900

Iceland600600600600

India100786976809682095975

Indonesia192688202379205459207685

Iran24000241002420024200

Iraq13700142001420014200

Ireland6350635063506350

Israel8200825083508350

Italy86960932079353692900

Jamaica & Dep1240124012401240

Japan336545319615257600257600

Jordan3850395040004000

Kazakhstan; Republic of15650160001700017000

Kenya7000700070007000

Korea; Democratic Peoples Rep15500155001550015500

Korea; Republic of103001102756102000102000

Kuwait1000100010001000

Kyrgyzstan; Republic of4000405041004100

Laos1300130013001300

Latvia3900400040004000

Lebanon5600565056505650

Liberia225225225225

Libya5700570057005700

Lithuania5200525053005300

Macau8800880088008800

Macedonia (Skopje)4600460047004700

Madagascar2500250025002500

Malawi12001100950930

Malaysia19933202291930018500

Malta & Gozo1350137514001400

Mauritius1500150015001500

Mexico46758469904718047230

Moldova; Republic of4800480047004700

Morocco15700158001590015900

Mozambique1200120012001200

Nepal1500150015001500

Netherlands15425166703012430124

Netherlands Antilles1700170017001700

New Zealand6245624562256225

Nicaragua2400240024002400

Niger800800800800

Nigeria18700187001870018700

Norway2720277125752715

Pakistan45603469655170254500

Panama900915915915

Papua New Guinea55555555

Paraguay1900195019501950

Peru4210421042104210

Philippines77779692017500071620

Poland91780916639305093000

Portugal16150164751647516475

Reunion300300300300

Romania32500315003300040000

Russian Federation207000230000231500232000

Rwanda30303030

Saudi Arabia20000200002000020000

Senegal3900390039003900

Seychelles15151515

Sierra Leone1038103810381038

Singapore3389346733223480

Slovakia11250119001240012400

Slovenia3700370037003700

Solomon Islands25252525

South Africa; Republic of36024325883108230000

Spain74582808758992090000

Sri Lanka5150515051505150

Sudan1250135014501450

Surinam400400400400

Sweden8278599957006300

Switzerland15452145091435014350

Syria10000101001020010200

Taiwan37632400124010440080

Tajikistan; Republic of7400750074007400

Tanzania; United Republic of3750375037503750

Thailand49155491344170034290

Togo1000100010001000

Trinidad and Tobago1320132013201320

Tunisia11100111001120011200

Turkey98509100030109300111500

Turkmenistan5900600061006100

Uganda2300230023002300

Ukraine85000860008700087000

United Arab Emirates6500650065006500

United Kingdom89288880208294079500

United States518305507004483000446000

Uruguay3938393839383938

Uzbekistan; Republic of17782179881598416600

Venezuela7658699141004100

Vietnam32000320003200032000

Western Samoa155155160160

Yemen4700480048004800

Yugoslavia (>05/92)22300223002230022300

Zaire5300530053005300

Zambia1600160016001600

Zimbabwe2150218320902090

5178827Share of tobacco Consumption

Africa's Share2181034.2%

Sub-Sharan Africa's share770031.5%

Kenya's share in African expenditure9.1%

0.22391857510.206185567

Rest of the world85.5%Germany

Europe EU share61369911.9%22.3%other deaths0.99999

Germany's share1370002.6%% of total deaths0.000010.10526315790.99999

Rest of the world87.1%% of male to total deaths0.10526315790.023923445

Central Europe66715112.9%% female to total deaths0.023923445

Hungary239000.0%

Hung in central europe4%

MalesFemales

European Union39397

Germany8820

All causes

197513%

198518%

199020%

199523%

other deaths0.7713191001

% total deaths0.000001

% male deaths0.1741725744

% female deaths0.0545083255

0.7616402353

0.2383597647

0.871177199

0.128822801

0.0000001



Hungary 4% of C&EE

Global Share of Cigarette Consumption 1999

0.7713191001

0.000001

0.1741725744

0.0545083255

Other causes 77%

Smoking deaths 23%

Male deaths 76%

Female deaths 24%

Tobacco Attributable Deaths in Hungary 1995

0.13

0.18

0.2

0.23

All causes

Share of Smoking Attributed Deaths in Total Deaths in Hungary, 1975-1995

Smoking prevalenceTobacco AdvertisingSales to minorsHealth warnings on PackageSmoking in publicHealth EducationMortality from tobacco Use

Hungary

Allocating Tobacco Expenditure to Other Goods and ServicesBetter Nutrition, Better Health

Chart1

2.0452780985

2.074542809

3.0631160255

9.8111836606

21.0126799816

25.6362952231

Consumption Per 15+

Kg / Week

In 1999, a Hungarian smoker's weekly cigarette expenditure can buy

mainsheet

HUNGARY19751980198519901991199219931994199519961997199819992000







Tobacco Prices



y o y change (%)30%28%28%22%18%33%13%65%2%2%

Taxation on Tobacco









- Cigarettes60.9%61.0%57.1%52.4%56.5%58.6%59.7%54.0%57.6%59.2%



VATVAT0.470.600.740.861.151.302.152.22.3











- VAT (million HUF)9,77712,14916,77221,00623,97624,38027,17050,95552,58045,000



fixed19,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

ad valerom5,0805,5532,56310,12317,53220,51540,39843,77139,334

8.4%6.6%2.4%8.4%14.4%15.1%15.9%16.6%17.5%



total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%





- fixed part15,85419,82025,54731,43733,57829,46833,40946,21554,97048,900

- Ad valorem5,7327,10910,79715,00720,36022,73424,64052,74350,21141,295






Tobacco Trade

Cigarettes Trade






2%2%2%


























-growth rate-1.500%-1.720%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.500%-0.524%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.600%-0.554%


- growth rate-0.500%-0.592%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.030%0.037%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.350%-0.302%










CPI ( in 1995 HUF)32445465.677.9100123.5146.1167.1184.3196

Some Tobacco Ratios


















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