today’s economy & the role of federal lands...commodity production we define non-metro as...

Today’sEconomy&theRoleofFederalLands

1PhotocourtesyofChrisBoyer

Outline

2

PageEconomicrolesoffederallands 4Economiccontext– theU.S. 14Economiccontext– theWest 20Atheoryofruraldevelopment 33

Federallands&ruraleconomies 43

Federallands&politics 55

Slideshowversion3-24-17

3

Federallands

BureauofLandManagement23%

ForestService19%

NationalPark3%

Remainder:U.S.Fish&Wildlife&military,other

Allfederallands48%ofWest

Statelands6%

Rounded%s.Fed.Landsalsoincludemilitary,fish&wildlife.U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.U.S.ProtectedAreasDatabase(PADUS)v.1.4

Economicrolesoffederallands

4

CommodityProduction

Wedefinenon-metroasrural.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting. Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.

Mining,oil,gas,timber

5%

PersonalIncomefromEmploymentinResourceExtraction,Non-MetroWest2015

5

Wildlife&Biodiversity

Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm

6

Scenery

Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm

7

Culture,Heritage

8

OutdoorRecreation$646billioninretailsales6.1millionjobs

$40billioninfederaltaxrevenues$40billioninstate/localtaxrevenues

IntheWest:

1.9milliondirectjobsinoutdoorrecreation(80%thesizeofconstructionsector)

95%ofwesternvotersvisitedfederallandsin2015

Federallandsrecreationresponsibleforatleast$51billioninvisitorexpenditures

The West is defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. West-wide jobs numbers for comparison from: U.S. Department ofCommerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/images/ore_reports/CO-colorado-outdoorrecreationeconomy-oia.pdf. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotAsset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of:http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/USFS-Econ-Impacts-Rec.pdf.

143millionAmericansparticipate

9

EcosystemServicesWaterpurification,erosion&floodcontrol,carbonstorage,climateregulation,pollination,medicine,etc.

Example:

NationalForests

Waterfor66millionpeoplein3,400communitiesworth$7.2billionannually

IntheWest:

NationalForestsprovide33%ofourwater

86%inWashingtonState

NationalForestfiguresfrom:https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts.Westfiguresfrom:https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417.Imagefrom:http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047.

10

CommunityEconomicDevelopmentFederallands,asasetting,makeacommunityapleasantplacetolive&dobusiness.Retainpeople&business

11

ColoradoSprings

AmenityMigration

12

Federallandsattractpeople&business,movingforjobsANDlifestyle

CedarCity

RecruitTalent

RightNowTechnologies,basedinBozeman,Montana,advertisedBozeman'squalityoflifetoattractsoftwareengineers.ThisstrategyallowedthecompanytogrowtothepointwhereafewyearsagoitsoldtoOracleformorethan$1billion,andstilloperatesinBozeman.Forotherbusinessleaderquotes,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-is-best-value-of-public-lands/13 andhttp://www.businessformontanasoutdoors.com/. 13

“Ourqualityoflifeisdefinedbyourpubliclandsandaccesstothem.ThisgivesusandothertechcompaniesinMontanaadistinctcompetitiveadvantage.Wecanrecruitandretaintoptalentsuccessfullywithinandoutsidethestatebecauseoftheworld-classlandscapethatsurroundsus.”

LanceTrebesch CEO,TicketPrinting.com

Economiccontext

14

Let’sstartwiththeU.S.economy

U.S.economy

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600

ManufacturingInformation

Farm employmentUtilities

Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)

Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)

Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)

Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)

Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)

Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)

Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)

Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)

Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.

31millionnewjobs

>95%inservices

15

Mostjobgrowthinservices

U.S.changeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600












16

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

1948

19

50 19

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Pri

vate

Indu

stri

es F

ull &

Par

t-Ti

me

Jobs

(Tho

usan

ds)

Pri

vate

Indu

stri

es V

alue

Add

ed (B

illio

ns o

f 201

4 $s

)

Private Industries Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1948

19

50 19

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02 20

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14

Pro

fess

iona

l, S

cien

tific

, And

Tec

hnic

al S

ervi

ces

Full

& P

art-

Tim

e Jo

bs

(Tho

usan

ds)

Pro

fess

iona

l, S

cien

tific

, And

Tec

hnic

al S

ervi

ces

Valu

e A

dded

(Bill

ions

of 2

014

$s)

Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1948

19

50 19

52 19

54 19

56 19

58 19

60 19

62 19

64 19

66 19

68 19

70 19

72 19

74 19

76 19

78 19

80 19

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86 19

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90 19

92 19

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00 20

02 20

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06 20

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10 20

12 20

14

Hea

lth C

are

And

Soc

ial A

ssis

tanc

e Fu

ll &

Par

t-Tim

e Jo

bs (T

hous

ands

)

Hea

lth C

are

And

Soc

ial A

ssis

tanc

e Va

lue

Add

ed (B

illio

ns o

f 201

4 $s

)

Health Care And Social Assistance Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

AllindustriesinU.S.

Professional,scientific&tech.services

Valueofproduction&jobstrackclosely

Healthcare

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N andRegionalEconomicAccountshttps://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm.

Jobs

Value

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1948

19

50 19

52 19

54 19

56 19

58 19

60 19

62 19

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14

Man

ufac

turi

ng F

ull &

Par

t-Ti

me

Jobs

(Tho

usan

ds)

Man

ufac

turi

ng V

alue

Add

ed (B

illio

ns o

f 201

4 $s

) Manufacturing Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

Jobs

Value

Manufacturingisanexception

88%ofjoblossduetoautomation

FigureisforU.S.https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/Automationfigurefrom:HicksMJandDevaraj S.2015.TheMythandtheRealityofManufacturinginAmerica.Muncie,IN:CenterofBusinessandEconomicResearch,BallStateUniversity.http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.

Productivityhigherthanever,butwithfewerworkers

17

3.1%%

$33.17%

19.8%

3.2%%

$22.43%

18.7%

4.1%%

$20.04%

12.3%

Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%

Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,

FiguresforU.S.http://www.bls.gov/industriesataglance

18

Othersectorsoutperformingmanufacturing

Example:

3.1%%

$33.17%

19.8%

3.2%%

$22.43%

18.7%

4.1%%

$20.04%

12.3%

Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%

Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,

U.S.jobs(millions)Averagehourlyearnings

19FigureisforU.S..AdaptedfromWashingtonPost,Wonkblog.March10,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/the-people-who-were-left-behind-two-months-ago-are-still-left-behind/?utm_term=.6d19ba72044a

Workersproducemore,butwageshavenotkeptup

%gaininworkerproductivityvs.compensation,1948-2013

Economiccontext

20

TheWest

TheWestoutperformstherestofthecountry

Jobs

TheWEST

FordetailsontheWest’sperformancecomparedtotherestofthecountry,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-wide-summary/ 21

Westchangeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)

-591,364

-64,079

-43,079

-22,355

8,695

43,435

75,558

126,138

195,846

308,576

314,538

356,965

370,565

391,378

401,286

493,550

519,518

786,689

788,790

806,230

1,689,711

-1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000


Farm employmentConstruction

Utilities (.1%)Management of companies & enterprises (.6%)

Forestry, fishing, & related activities (1.0%)Mining (1.6%)

Wholesale trade (2.6%)Arts, entertainment, & recreation (4.0%)

Transportation & warehousing (4.1%)Finance & insurance (4.6%)

Government & government enterprises (4.8%)Retail Trade (5.1%)

Educational services (5.2%)Other services, except public admin. (6.4%)

Administrative & waste services (6.8%)Accommodation & food services (10.2%)

Real estate & rental & leasing (10.3%)Professional & technical services (10.5%)

Health care & social assistance (22.0%)

8.4millionnewjobs

90%inservices

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N. 22

Mostjobgrowthinservices

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600












TheWEST

West personalincomebysource,2015

Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N

36.1%

1.4% 11.0%

46.8%

12.4% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.

Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber

Manufacturing,construction,agriculture

Services:health,engineering,education,etc.

Government

45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%




Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government

45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





23

RuralWest– verysimilar;personalincomebysource,2015

Wedefineruralasnon-metro.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting.Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.

45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%




Services:health,engineering,education,etc.

Government

45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





45.8%

4.7%

10.2%

28.0%





24

25

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s

Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services

PersonalincomeintheWest

ServicesDoctors,engineers,lawyers,accountants,waiters,barbers,etc.

Non-Labor Retirement,investments,SocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,etc.

Government

Non-Servicesredline

Local,state,federal

Construction,manufacturing,mining,oil&gas,agriculture,etc.

http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas

26

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s


Services

Whysomuchgrowthinservices?>90%ofLABORincomegrowthinlastdecade Demandhasincreased:

Healthcare,insuranceHightechproductsLeisure,entertainment

Supplyhasincreased:

Newindustries(software)

Somefunctionsonceinternalto“goodsproduction”nowoutsourced&countedasservices(e.g.accounting)

Servicesnothighlyautomated(thewaymanufacturingis)

Servicesare50%oflaborincomein2015.Figureisintermsoflaborincome,asubsetoftotalpersonalincome;theremainderisnon-laborincome.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.

27

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s


Non-Labor

Non-laboris36%ofTPIin2015.Figureisintermsoftotalpersonalincome(laborplusnon-laborincome).U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25NForathoroughanalysisofthethreetypesofnon-laborincome,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/

Whysomuchgrowthinnon-laborincome?>55%ofTOTALPERSONALINCOMEgrowthinlastdecade

Three typesofnon-laborincome:

InvestmentRelated(dividends,interest&rent)

AgeRelated(retirement,Medicare,socialsecurity,etc.)

Hardship-related(Medicaid,foodstamps,etc.)

BabyBoomers&thestockmarket

Investment-related20%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(Dividends,Interest&Rent)

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.

28

Age-related8%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(SocialSecurity,Medicare)

29Lawson,M.,R.Rasker,andP.Gude.2014.“TheImportanceofNon-LaborIncome:AnAnalysisofSocioeconomicPerformanceinWesternCountiesbyTypeofNon-LaborIncome.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.44(2):175-190.

Hardship-related5.7%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(Medicaid,incomemaintenance,unemploymentcompensation)

Foodstampimagefrom:http://publicradioeast.org/post/snap-food-stamps-require-20-hour-work-week

30

Non-laborincomewillcontinuetogrow

Injustfiveyears1/4ofuswillbe55yearsorolder

75millionareBabyBoomers,bornbetween1946and1964.By2020,25%ofallworkerswillbeatleast55yearsold andeverymonth,morethanaquarter-millionAmericansturn65.Yet,only17%ofBabyBoomersarecurrentlyretired.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/. 31

BabyBoomerscontrol80%ofthefinancialassetsofthecountry

32

Westerncountiesdependmostlyonservices&non-laborincome

> 10%oflaborearningsfrom:

Timber 1%ofallcountiesMining 12%ofallcounties(2%oil&gas)

> 50%oflaborearningsfrom:

Services 41%ofallcounties

> 50%oftotalpersonalincomefrom:

Non-Labor 25%ofallcounties

Datafor2015.Thereare414countiesintheWest,ofwhich278arenon-metro.From2000-2015,80%ofcountiesaddedpopulation,19%lost.Duringthattime74%ofnon-metrocountiesgrewwhile25%lostpopulation.Miningincludesoil,gas,coal,minerals.2%ofcountieshave>10%oflaborearningsfrompeoplewhoworkinoilandgas.Intermsofnon-laborincome:48%ofcountieswith>20%ofTPIfrominvestmentincome.70%ofcountieshave>10%ofTPIfromage-relatedincome;and21%have>10%ofTPIfromhardship-relatedsources. Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA05.

Atheoryofrural

development

33

Touristsneedaccessbyair:nearly4outof5airtripsareforleisure(79%)

Airaccessbenefitstherestoftheeconomy;e.g.techworkerstravelbyair60-400%morethangeneralworkforce

4outof5statisticfromUSTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet.Techworkerstatfrom:Kasarda,J.D.,2000a.Logisticsandtheriseofaerotropolis.RealEstateIssues27(4),43–49.andKasarda,J.D.,2000b.Aerotropolis:airport-driven urban development.Cities inthe 21stCentury.UrbanLand Institute,Washington,D.C.,pp.32–41.

Accesstomajorpopulationcentersisaprincipledriverofeconomicopportunity

34

Agriculture&resourceextraction

Tourism Transportationinfrastructure

Diverseeconomy:

Agriculture,resourceindustries,tourism,plus

high-tech

footloosebusinesses

investmentincome,retirement,semi-retirement

building,healthcare,retail,etc.

AMENITYMIGRATION

Overtime,asacommunitydiversifiesfromresourceindustriestoincludetourism,theeconomywillexpandiftransportationinfrastructurealsoexpands

Thereare3typesofcountiesMETRO(&commutershed)HigherwagesLessvolatilityMorehigh-wageservicesFastest-growingYoungerMoreeducated

RURAL&ISOLATEDLowestwagesMostvolatilityFewhigh-wageservicesSlowest-growingOlder&agingLesseducated

CONNECTED(viaairports)Overtime,performmorelikeMETRO

97%ofpopulationlivesineitherMETROorCONNECTED

https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/three-wests-explained/

36

75%ofalljobsareconcentratedincities

https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/urban-areas-drive-economic-growth-in-the-west/

37

92%Westliveinmetroareas

75%restofcountry

TheWestisthemosturbanpartofthecountry

MichaelStratton,usedbypermission

38

“Foroveracenturypunditshavebeenpredictingthatnewformsofcommunicationwouldmakeurbanlifeirrelevant.

Todefeatthehumanneedforface-to-facecontacts,ourtechnologicalmarvelswouldneedtodefeatmillionsofyearsofhumanevolutionthathasmadeusintomachinesforlearningfromthepeoplenexttous.”

39

Theadvantageofcitiesisthesocialnetwork

“Inthetwentiethcentury,competitionwasaboutaccumulatingphysicalcapital.

Todayitisaboutattractingthebesthumancapital.”

40

Humancapitaliscritical

Goodpayingjobsexist,butinterstatemobilityamongAmericanhasdeclined.Reasonswhyhere:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2896309

FigureisforU.S.in2014fromU.S.Dept.Labor,BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey. 41

Highereducationlevelsmean

higherwageslowerunemployment &

488

668

741

792

1,101

1,326

1,639

1,591

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)

9.0

6.0

6.0

4.5

3.5

2.8

1.9

2.1

Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)

All workers: 5% All workers: $839

Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment

Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.

Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

488

668

741

792

1,101

1,326

1,639

1,591

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree


9.0

6.0

6.0

4.5

3.5

2.8

1.9

2.1






488

668

741

792

1,101

1,326

1,639

1,591

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree


9.0

6.0

6.0

4.5

3.5

2.8

1.9

2.1






SUMMARY:theeconomyoftheWest

Veryurban

Urban&ruralwithairportsdobetter

Resourcedependenceisrare

Growthinservices&non-laborincome&

Humancapitaliskey

Whatroledofederalpubliclandsplay?42

Federallands&

ruraleconomies

43

44

Whatistheeconomicperformanceofruralcountieswithfederallands?

45

20%

51%

90%

57%

97%

157%

223%

61%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome

Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,

1970-2015.

Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Countieswithmorefederallandsgrowfaster

Averagegrowth1970-2015

Mostfederallands

Fewfederallands

20%

51%

90%

57%

97%

157%

223%

61%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%



1970-2015.


20%

51%

90%

57%

97%

157%

223%

61%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%



1970-2015.


Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile

Countyshareoffederallandinruralwesterncounties:


46Seeinteractivedatavisualization:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/federal-lands-performance/

Growthcouldbebecauseofrecreation,timber,minerals,energy,services,migration,non-laborincome,homebuilding,medical,etc.

Top25thfederallands

Bottom25thfederallands

25%offederallandsarePROTECTED

FederallandsintheWest:346millionacres

Protected (Nat.Park,Wilderness,N.Monument,etc.)

25%

Somewhatprotected(WildernessStudy,Roadless)

14%

MultipleUse

61%

47

Protectedincludes:NationalParksandPreserves(NPS),Wilderness(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),NationalConservationAreas(BLM),NationalMonuments(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalRecreationAreas(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalWildandScenicRivers(NPS,FS,BLM),WaterfowlProduction Areas(FWS),WildlifeManagementAreas(FWS),ResearchNaturalAreas(FS,BLM),AreasofCriticalEnvironmentalConcern(BLM),andNationalWildlifeRefuges(FWS).

Somewhatprotectedincludes:WildernessStudyAreas(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),InventoriedRoadlessAreas(FS).

MultipleuseincludesPublicDomainLands(BLM),O&CLands(BLM),NationalForestsandGrasslands(FS).

Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.ProtectedAreasDatabaseoftheUnitedStates(PADUS)version1.4

(non-military)

48

CountieswithmorePROTECTEDfederallandsgrowfaster

Mostfederalands

Fewfederalands

34%

72%

108%

54%

89%

169%

252%

73%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%


Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.

Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile

Mostprotectedfederallands

Leastprotectedfederallands

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Averagegrowth1970-2015

20%

51%

90%

57%

97%

157%

223%

61%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%



1970-2015.


Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile

CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederallandinruralwesterncounties:

34%

72%

108%

54%

89%

169%

252%

73%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%


Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.

Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile


49

RuralcountieswithhighlevelofPROTECTEDhavefasterpersonalincomegrowth

AverageTotalPersonalIncomeGrowth1970-2015

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.https://headwaterseconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/Methods-federal-lands-performance.pdf.

$248,136

$1,005,575

$209,502

$547,535

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

Counties withshareofprotected federallandsinthetop 25thpercentileCounties withshareofprotected federallandsinthebottom 25thpercentile

Top25th percentile

Bottom25th percentile

CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederalland:

In2015$,x1000

50

Protectedfederallandsexplainpartoftherelativesizeofpercapitaincomeforruralcounties

Example

https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122.

Example

Relativetootherfactors,includingmigration,education,age-relatednon-laborincome,elevation,airporttraveltime,resourcedependence&others.

Foreach100,000acresofWilderness,NationalPark,NationalMonumentinacountythePerCapitaIncomeincreases$4,360

51

$0$436

$2,180

$4,360

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0acres 10,000acres 50,000acres 100,000acres

MeanIncreasein

PerCapita

Income

ProtectedPublicLands

IfcountiesA&Bwereidenticalineveryway,butcountyAhada50,000acresofprotectedpubliclandandcountyBhadnone,youwouldexpectincomeincountyAtobeonaverage$2,180higherperperson.

https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122

NationalMonuments:growthbefore&afterdesignation

Theaboveareexamples.Toseehoweachmonumentperformed,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/

17 National Monuments >10,000 acres & designated in 1982 or later – economy grew in each

Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy

52

Cascade-SiskiyouDesignated:2000

GrandCanyonParashantDesignated:2000

GrandStaircase-EscalanteDesignated:1996

53

IntheWEST

104millionvisitorsspent$6.7billion

creating104,000jobs&

$3.7billioninlaborincome

NationalParkscreatejobs

IntheU.S.307millionvisitorsspent$16.9billion,creating293,300jobs&$11.1billioninlaborincomehttps://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm andhttps://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/

54

Retireesmigratetowesterncountieswithprotectedpubliclands

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,Washington,D.C.ForamorethoroughexplanationofmethodsusedcontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org.

Mostprotectedfederallands

LeastProtectedfederallands

Federallands&

politics

55

“Itisourgoaltogettheloggerbacktologging,togettherancherbacktoranching,togettheminerbacktomining,thefarmerbacktofarming— andtojump-startthiseconomyinHarneyCounty.”

AmmonBundyMalheurWildlifeRefuge

PhotoAP/RickBowmer viahttp://www.salon.com/2016/01/09/ammon_bundy_is_not_a_terrorist_the_authorities_are_waiting_out_the_militia_just_as_they_should_do_with_black_lives_matter_protesters/

56

PartsoftheruralWestarebeingleftbehind

57

Westernsawmillsandtimberproduction

ManufacturingautomationalsoimpactsruralWesterncounties

InOregon,themosttimber-dependentstate,timberharvestsincreasedby50%between2009&2013,whiletimberemploymentincreasedby1%

ORtimberharvest:BureauofBusinessandEconomicResearch,UniversityofMontana:http://www.bber.umt.edu/FIR/HarvestOR.aspx.Lumberandwoodproductsmanufacturingemploymentfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.Figureshowingtherelationshipbetweensawmillproductionandmillsadaptedfrom:OregonOfficeofEconomicAnalysis.WoodProductsProductivity,anUpdate.https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/01/26/wood-products-productivity-an-update/.

58

Rural(Non-Metro)

Urban(Metro) U.S.

Families belowpoverty 9.4% 11.9% 11.5%

Households receiving:

SupplementalS.Security(welfare) 4.8% 5.3% 5.3%

Foodstamps 9.8% 10.9% 13%

Retirementincome 22.8% 16.1% 17.8%

SocialSecurity 36.4% 26% 29.3%

%population65yrs.or older 17.3% 12.2% 14.1%

Rateofjobgrowth2000-2015 12% 21% 15%

Ave.earnings/job2015 $44,336 $62,338 $58,228

Ruralwesterncountyeconomicsaffectspolitics

lesspoverty

but…..

older&relymoreonretirement$

slowerjobgrowth

Ruralcountieshave:

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurveyOffice,Washington,D.C.;U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2000.CensusBureau,SystemsSupportDivision,Washington,D.C.Jobfiguresfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA30.Someotherindicatorsshowlittledifference:UnemploymentrateApril2017(rural5.6%,urban5%).%pop.Growthfrommigration2000-2015(rural35%,urban39%).

lowerwages

59https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas/ 68of413countieslostjobsfrom2005- 2015

Jobgrowthisnotevenlydistributed

16%ofcountieslostjobsinthelastdecade

Ruralisolatedcountiesperformworsethanthoseconnectedviaairtravel

60http://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/.“Redvs.BluePoliticalDivideMayReallyBeAboutYoungvs.Old”http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/red-vs-blue-political-divide-may-really-be-about-young-n725651

Aredifferencesinjobgrowthreflectedinthe2016presidentialelection?

TrumpClinton

Oraretheyalsoareflectionofruralcountiesbeingolder,witholdervotersfavoringTrump?

61

Notsurprisingly,tensionsriseonallsides

62

POLL:Westernersvisitpubliclandthemost

Visitedinthelastyear

West

U.S.

93% 78%

17%ofwesternersvisitedmorethan20times,comparedto4%forU.S.

2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.

63

POLL:Mostbelievefederalpubliclandshelpeconomy

1 2 3

Helpsoureconomy

Hurts

Haslittleimpact

19%

72%6%

2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.

64

protectcleanwater,air,wildlifewhileprovidingaccesstonationalpubliclands

68%

58% stronglyopposeturningfederallandstostates(33%support)

80% NationalMonuments- keepthemthatway

75% conservationofpubliclandsatopissuewhendecidingonacandidate

supportLand&WaterConservationFund75%

POLL:Westernerssupportconservationoffederallands

ColoradoCollege,StateoftherockiesProject.https://www.coloradocollege.edu/other/stateoftherockies/conservationinthewest/2017/2017SORPollReleasePresentation.pdf.BasedonJan.2017pollinginMT,WY,NV,UT,CO,AZ,andNM.

Jan.3,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/03/house-gop-rules-change-would-make-it-easier-to-sell-off-federal-land/?utm_term=.480ab9240a70Jan.4,2017http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/local/2017/01/04/zinke-vote-federal-land-comes-fire/96171020Fromhttps://zinke.house.gov/issues/public-lands“Iwillnottoleratesellingourpubliclands.” Jan.17,2017https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.htm.Rep.Chaffetz’s billproposedtosell3.3millionacresoffedland.http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/letters-from-the-west/article130291054.html 65

Federallandsareinthenews

Feb.16,2017.http://www.sltrib.com/home/4952414-155/outdoor-retailer-convention-leaving-utah“Herbert”intheheadlinereferstoUtah’sGovernorGaryHerbert. 66

Generated$45millionforSaltLakeCity

RayRasker,Ph.D.ExecutiveDirector

[email protected]

67

68

RESOURCESHeadwatersEconomics:https://headwaterseconomics.org/

Freeanalyticaltools:https://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/

Publiclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/public-lands/

Federallands:liabilityorasset:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Thevalueofpubliclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/public-lands-research/

NationalMonuments:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/

NationalParks:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/

Economicdevelopment:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/

Localstudies:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/local-studies/

ThreeWests:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests/

Trailsbenefitslibrary: https://headwaterseconomics.org/trail/

ForhighresolutioncopiesofanyslidepleasecontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org or406570-7044

Jakus,P.2016.WhatDoestheQualityofPublicLandsImplyforFederalLandTransfers?WesternPolicyBrief.July.http://wrdc.usu.edu/files/publications/publication/pub__3361871.pdf. 69

Caveats

Federallands=moregrowthdoesnotimplycause&effect

But,noevidencethatpubliclands,orconservation,hurtslocaleconomies

Publiclandamenitiesareimportant,butnotsufficient

Alsoneeded:AccesstopopulationcentersEducationDiverseeconomy

Somedifferencesineconomicperformancemayalsobeafunctionoftopographyandhistoricallanduse:communitiesdominatedbyflat,arablelandtendtodependmoreonagriculture,andarenotdoingaswellintheruralWest.Westernlandsunsuitableforagriculturearemorelikelytohavealargeshareoffederalland,whichinsomeplaceshasspurredmorediverseeconomicactivity.

today’s economy & the role of federal lands...commodity production we define non-metro as...

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